Cox's record helps simplify a complicated Juvenile Mile

With a dozen lightly raced entrants, none with stakes experience, the $500,000 Kentucky Downs Juvenile Mile is something of a guessing game.

But here’s a statistic that might provide a helpful guide: In 2-year-old Kentucky Downs stakes races over the last five years, trainer Brad Cox has a record of 7-4-1-0. That is hot stuff even by Cox’s high standards, and his entrant in Sunday’s race, Mozlzil, looks very live.

Mozlzil is among several once-started horses in the race, having cleared the maiden ranks Aug. 18 in an Ellis Park turf route. He beat just six foes and earned a moderate 57 Beyer Speed Figure (no 2-year-olds seem to run fast turf figures at Ellis), but Mozlzil looked like a physically advanced colt, and he made a favorable visual impression.

Stalking the pace from fourth, he moved up easily on the far turn, had the lead by the stretch call, and drew clear to post a 2 3/4-length win while getting his final 2 1/2 furlongs a few ticks faster than 30 seconds. The colt, by Uncle Mo, ran well, but not so well that he doesn’t have room for second-start improvement.

The other Ellis debut winner to strongly consider is Blue Eyed George. This colt, from the first crop of Flameaway (who is going great guns with grass runners), debuted in a July 31 maiden route. He was sawed off going into the clubhouse turn and steadied again farther around that bend but kept his cool and produced a finishing kick just as strong as Mozlzil’s to win by 1 3/4 lengths. His trainer, Michael McCarthy, is competent and accomplished but just 11-0-0-3 at Kentucky Downs.

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Value Engineer comes via the Horseshoe Indianapolis route, where he was a well-beaten third in his debut before romping to a 5 3/4-length second-start score, both races coming at 7 1/2 furlongs. Experience helped Value Engineer improve, as did an equipment change.

“Blinkers really woke him up,” trainer Mike Maker said.

Value Engineer’s maiden win was fast early, slow late. Still, Maker thinks the move to a longer one-turn race will benefit the colt, by Twirling Candy. Maker is 13-0-4-2 in Kentucky Downs 2-year-old stakes the last five years.

Sambalover, stretching out from a 5 1/2-furlong career debut, was the easy winner of Value Engineer’s first start, quickening well after leading on a slow pace. He’ll be going faster early in Sunday’s contest if he tries for another front-running trip.

Aspenite will be part of the pace and has a race over the course, taking a brutal beat opening day after leading a rich sales-restricted race to the final jump before wavering and getting caught. That race was at 6 1/2 furlongs, and Aspenite could struggle to stay a testing mile.

Juvenile Fillies

While there are no Saratoga horses in the boys’ race, there are four in the $500,000 Juvenile Fillies, another one-mile race.

Kodiac Wintergreen won a turf sprint there, Sea Dancer and Latte Lizzie finished, respectively, second and third in a maiden route, and while Cynane didn’t start at Saratoga, she has been training there with Tom Morley.

These four all stand a solid chance, as do several others in a deep race.

Kodiac Wintergreen is favored at 3-1 on the morning line despite making her route debut. She closed determinedly through the homestretch to win well over 5 1/2 furlongs, and trainer Rusty Arnold does well with stretch-out horses.

There are mixed pedigree signals. Kodiac Wintergreen is by Kodiac, whose progreny’s average winning distance is a sprint-leaning 7.2 furlongs. Her sister Love Reigns, by U S Navy Flag, is a top 3-year-old filly sprinter, but her brother Glorious Empire, by Holy Roman Emperor, won the Sword Dancer over 1 1/2 miles. Call the filly, who runs for only $300,000 as an Irish-bred, a contender.

Sea Dancer was a close second in a solid Saratoga maiden after losing a lot of ground on the far turn, but she’s drawn on the rail Sunday, a potentially tricky spot. Latte Lizzie, who was several lengths behind her, had a much tougher trip.

Trained by Chad Brown and with Irad Ortiz Jr. booked to ride, Latte Lizzie was shuffled back into the first turn and got stuck on the fence while nearly last all the way down the backstretch and around the far turn. She didn’t have clear passage for her stretch run and did well to win a photo for third.

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Cynane developed early and won a five-furlong Belmont Park turf sprint in her May 11 debut. Connections took a shot at Royal Ascot, and while Cynane was 10th in the Queen Mary over a straight five furlongs, the race had 26 runners. By Omaha Beach, there’s no reason, on pedigree, Cynane shouldn’t stretch out. Her dam won a turf mile, and her brother Arrowthegreat was a sharp dirt mile winner just last week at Del Mar.

Mo Fox Givin was 49-1 making her debut Aug. 12 in a Colonial Downs turf route but won by nearly four lengths, making a strong move on the far turn. The race’s troubled fourth-place finisher, Yatta, returned with a Kentucky Downs maiden win Thursday.

And while Austere got only a 49 Beyer debuting Aug. 13 at Ellis for winning a turf route maiden, she was much better than the number. Tracking the pace from a perfect spot, Austere came off the bridle going into the far turn and threatened to fade out of contention, but instead she found stride again and won comfortably with a fast final furlong. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Brendan Walsh, who already has a remarkable six winners at the meet.

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