Cox looks to burnish Keeneland form with Hit Show in Fayette Stakes
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Two Octobers ago, Hit Show won his career debut as the favorite in a Keeneland maiden race. Saturday, Hit Show makes his second Keeneland start as the favorite in the Grade 2, $350,000 Fayette Stakes.
That he starts as the favorite for trainer Brad Cox carries a huge amount of weight.
Cox already has set what appears to be a modern-day record for stakes wins, five, at a Keeneland fall meet. No trainer as far back as Daily Racing Form’s database recording trainer standings extends, 1991, has won more than four. Had Destino d’Oro found any racing luck in the Jessamine Stakes, where she was beaten two noses, Cox would have won with six of his seven stakes runners this meet. He won with his last two stakes horses at Keeneland in April, which makes him eight for his last 10. These trends reach further back into time: Over the last five years, Cox has gone 19-4-4 in 30 Keeneland stakes. And deciding to blind-bet them all would’ve gotten a $3.26 return on a $2 investment.
Hit Show ran respectable races in the 2023 Kentucky Derby and Belmont, and on Beyer Speed Figures has not improved since then. He ground out a neck victory Sept. 28 in the Grade 2 Lukas Classic over Cooke Creek, who’d been claimed for $40,000 in May. Even if you believe that Hit Show on paper looks vulnerable, you play against Cox at your own peril. Moreover, Hit Show needs only get back to his winning form from the Lukas Classic and his previous start, a West Virginia win, to contend in the Fayette, which is contested over 1 1/8 miles and drew 10 entrants.
The connections of Rattle N Roll, the likely second choice, might have grander ambitions than a Grade 2 at Keeneland since they pre-entered the horse in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Rattle N Roll stands 16th in the Classic entries and needs two defections to make the field. While he’d be a huge longshot at Del Mar, Keeneland poses its own challenge.
“We’ve got to beat Brad. That’s never easy,” trainer Kenny McPeek said.
McPeek said a decision on whether to ship next week to California or race this weekend at Keeneland could come as late as Saturday morning. In any case, McPeek expects 5-year-old Rattle N Roll, who won the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity three Octobers ago at Keeneland, to improve upon his Lukas Classic comeback performance, an even third behind Hit Show in Rattle N Roll’s first start since the 2023 Lukas Classic.
“He definitely needed the race, and we think he’s training better than he’s ever trained,” said McPeek, who trains Rattle N Roll for the Lucky Seven Stable.
Among the others, Trademark in five subsequent starts hasn’t approached the form he hit winning the Clark Stakes last fall, while the game gelding Tumbarumba, likely to show speed from post 2, has run his top races at one mile. Tumbarumba also was pre-entered in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.
War Campaign, however, rates at least an outside win chance. Making his second start after a layoff, he finished second behind Kingsbarns in the Bel Ali Stakes at Keeneland in April. Kingsbarns flattered War Campaign winning the Grade 1 Stephen Foster in June, and War Campaign also comes to the Fayette making his second start after a break.
“It’s kind of the same pattern as the spring,” trainer Phil Sims said. “We have been pointing for this race and we’re tickled the way he’s coming into it. I believe he’ll show up and run a good race for us. They’re not way above him, but the competition is fairly stiff.”
Even more so when the competition is trained by Brad Cox.
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