Control Group the horse to beat in Alex M. Robb

OZONE PARK, N.Y. – Owner Michael Dubb and trainer Rudy Rodriguez have done quite well with progeny of the stallion Posse that they’ve acquired through the claim box.

In 2015, they took Royal Posse for $20,000. Royal Posse won eight races – including four stakes – and banked $887,175 for them. Earlier this year, Dubb and Rodriguez claimed the Posse colt Control Group for $62,500. He’s won 5 races from 8 starts for them, including the Grade 3 Discovery Stakes, and is very much the one to beat in Sunday’s $100,000 Alex M. Robb Stakes for New York-breds at Aqueduct.

Control Group is not only the most accomplished horse in the field, but he’s the most proficient at the Robb distance of 1 1/8 miles. Control Group has won 3 of 4 starts at the distance. His three wins at 1 1/8 miles have all come around two turns, with his second-place finish to Twisted Tom coming in the one-turn Empire Classic at Belmont Park.

“The thing with that horse is he likes the two turns,” Rodriguez said.

Control Group won a weak running of the Discovery but he did so authoritatively, taking control immediately under Joel Rosario and cruising to a front-running three-length victory. Sunday, Control Group will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., but Rodriguez is hoping for the same type of ride.

“I would like to see him on the lead, that’s for sure,” Rodriguez said.

Trainer Kelly Rubley would like to see a contested pace for her late-running Sea Raven, who is coming off a second-place finish behind Discreet Lover in the Swatara Stakes at Penn National.

“He’s a deep closer,” Rubley said. “He needs a little bit of pace in there, so we’re hopeful that we’ll get that and be able to pick them off in the end.”

Completing the field are Can You Diggit, Extinct Charm, Papa Shot, Testosterstone, and Wake Up in Malibu.

The Robb will go as race 7 on an eight-race card that begins at 12:20 p.m. Eastern.

KEY CONTENDERS

Control Group, by Posse
Last 3 Beyers: 101-89-90

◗ Comes off a career-best effort winning the Grade 3 Discovery in front-running fashion as the favorite.

◗ Has to carry top weight of 122 pounds, conceding 5 to 7 pounds to the rest of the field.

Sea Raven, by Mineshaft
Last 3 Beyers: 92-75-80

◗ Has only two wins from his last 18 starts but has kept tougher company than this, including in his runner-up finish in Swatara Stakes at Penn National on Nov. 22. Fear the Cowboy, a neck behind Sea Raven when third in that race, came back to win the Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream in his next start.

◗ Two starts back, he finished third behind Twocubanbrothersu, who came back to win a Claiming Crown race at Gulfstream.

◗ Late-running sort figures to pick up the pieces when those who can’t get the distance fade in stretch.

Papa Shot, by Distorted Humor
Last 3 Beyers: 85-74-90

◗ Finished 2 3/4 lengths behind Control Group when fourth in the Empire Classic in October, his most recent start.

◗ Hard to dismiss anything trainer Linda Rice sends out these days, as she has won 17 races in December.