Contest player nipped in bid for massive pick six

Steven Crist, the former editor and publisher of Daily Racing Form and noted multirace wagering expert, often likened bets like the pick four and the pick six to handicapping tournaments. Successful contest player and co-founder of Off the Hook Stables Joe Appelbaum agrees with that assessment. “That’s a good way to think about it,” he said. “Really it’s more like a poker tournament where entries just get knocked out as time goes on and you have to survive and advance.”

Appelbaum used to play the pick six all the time, but in recent years his money has gone more to the pick four and pick five. But when the opportunity is right, he’ll still play the bet.

“I play about once a month throughout the year, more than that during Saratoga, when I’ll play all the carryovers,” he said. “Most non-carryover days don’t handle enough to justify the risk.”

Appelbaum focuses on carryover days for two reasons. One is that he’s looking for situations where the added money creates a situation where the effective takeout on the wager is greatly reduced or even can create a positive expectation for players, i.e., more money will go out of the pool than the players put in to it.

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The other reason to play on a carryover day is the opportunity for a life-changing score. The pick six isn’t a bet one plays to merely try to keep your bankroll in the black. “For a player like me, to make the pick six a profitable investment, you need to chase those outliers,” he said.

That was the situation last Sunday. Appelbaum, a regular in Saratoga’s backyard, put in a ticket on a two-day, $290,000 carryover with his two regular playing partners.

Crist helped popularize the concept of playing multiple tickets in the pick six, ranking horses as A, B, C, and X, and writing tickets accordingly. This methodology can be automated via DRF’s TicketMaker (http://www.drfticketmaker.com), an algorithm based on Crist’s approach to the bet. It is bet-writing orthodoxy that this method is superior to the “caveman” approach of putting all your contenders on a single ticket.

Appelbaum’s approach is a little different.

“I try to play as many tickets as I can,” he said, “but in my experience, most of the times I’ve hit have come from the main ticket, and it’s very rare that one of my secondary tickets hits.”

Because of that, his attitude toward writing his tickets has evolved – some might argue devolved – over time. “I understand that math favors a differentiated approach to bet writing,” he continued, “but for me, actually cashing big tickets favors the quote-unquote caveman approach.”

He likened his logic to the old story of the hedgehog and the fox.

“The hedgehog has one idea and he tries to jam it through; the fox always feeling the angles,” he explained. “Most gamblers are foxes, but sometimes the hedgehog comes through, too.”

On Sunday, Appelbaum played three tickets for a total of around $3,200. The big ticket had two singles, Thrice and Abel Tasman, and he went as deep as possible in the other races. After Abel Tasman survived an inquiry in the CCA Oaks, things got interesting. He was alive to five horses in the last, three of which were paying $577,000, the whole pool

“I hadn’t done the math but I was expecting them to be maybe half of what they were,” he said.

He thought through some hedging opportunities but decided not to bother. “I wanted to protect myself,” he said, “but at that level it’s difficult to construct hedges because they wouldn’t make a big enough difference.”

He watched the race from his usual spot, trying to assess his various horses’ positions throughout the race. At the pace call, he liked his chances, and when he saw Kendrick Carmouche drive through on the rail aboard Cookie Crisp, for a moment he thought he could win.

“For a maiden 40, that move usually wins the race,” he said, “but I wasn’t excited for too long because Major Force loomed up.”

In the end, there was a photo. “I kinda knew I lost but I was holding out a little hope,” he said. “I watched the replay to make sure and the first angle made it look closer than it was live.”

Sure enough, Appelbaum lost. Had Cookie Crisp had a longer nose, he’d have been a half-million richer. His reaction to this parimutuel heartbreak?

“I didn’t punch anything but I might have screamed out some inappropriate language,” he said. “After a few minutes I spoke to my wife and children, my partners, sat there drank a beer, shook my head, and watched the replay a few more times.”

By the next morning, he was ready to move on. “It was terrible, but it’s over,” he said, acknowledging that the five $2,500 consolation tickets provided little actual consolation.

“I’ll tell the tale over drinks many times,” he lamented. “I don’t know if I’ll get $577,000 worth of usage out of the story, but I’m sure going to try.”