Condition of tracks not a factor in fatality rates, analysis shows

A new analysis of musculoskeletal fatalities recorded in the Equine Injury Database showed no “statistically significant differences” between the fatality rates on either dirt or turf based on the listed conditions of the surfaces, according to the epidemiologists who conducted the analysis.

Though the analysis showed some differences in the rates, the epidemiologists, Dr. Euan Bennet and Tim Parkin, concluded that the condition of the surfaces did not pose a meaningful risk factor for a musculoskeletal fatality when compared to other conditions, at least based on the two years of data that was analyzed.

The condition of dirt and turf surfaces is often a leading subject of debate during spates of injuries. Anecdotally, many horsemen and racing observers contend that tracks with significant amounts of moisture are more dangerous than dry tracks, and, conversely, that tracks with little to no moisture, or those that are “harder,” are more dangerous.

But the analysis did not produce any data to bolster either of those contentions. The fatality rate for fast dirt surfaces during the period of analysis was 1.36 per 1,000 starts; the fatality rate for good dirt surfaces was 1.72; the rate for muddy was 1.23; and the rate for sloppy was 1.44. Heavy tracks had zero fatalities from a limited batch of data, as did tracks rated slow or frozen. Wet-fast dirt tracks had a rate of 1.18.

For turf, the fatality rate during the period analyzed was 1.37 on firm tracks; 0.72 on good tracks; and 1.28 on yielding tracks.

While the rates for specific conditions for both turf and dirt do show some major differences, the differences did not rise to the level of “statistical significance,” according to the epidemiologists.

The rates were generated through an analysis of all starts made in 2021 and 2022, and the results were compared to a cohort of starts including all results from 2018 through 2022. Fatalities were those deaths that occurred within three days of a racing injury.

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