Colonel Liam stands out in Muniz, but could be shaky at short price

Generally speaking, taking a short price in a large field of turf runners on a horse lacking a decided speed-figure edge is a poor idea. Yet with Colonel Liam in the Grade 2, $300,000 Muniz Memorial on Saturday at Fair Grounds, it’s tempting.

At age 4, Colonel Liam is young, and with six starts, just four of them on turf, Colonel Liam is lightly raced. He has clearly been working with verve over the dirt track at trainer Todd Pletcher’s winter base, Palm Beach Downs in Florida, comes off a win in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf, and grass ace Irad Ortiz Jr. has the mount.

It puts one in mind of 2019, when Bricks and Mortar came to New Orleans from Florida after winning the Pegasus Turf. Bricks and Mortar did hold a speed-figure edge while facing just five foes; he won by a nose at odds of 3-10.

Colonel Liam, a Liam’s Map colt purchased at auction by Robert and Lawana Low for $1.2 million as a yearling, is one of a dozen entrants in the 1 1/8-mile Muniz. Fair Grounds is taking the temporary turf rail down for this week’s racing, opening a wide swath of fresh ground on a course that had become quite firm through the March 14 program. After a chance of early-week rain, the forecast looks dry and this race should be run under fair, favorable conditions.

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Colonel Liam made a splash as soon as he was switched to turf last summer at Saratoga; his first-level allowance score earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 95. His figure in the Pegasus was 99 – so, has Colonel Liam’s development stalled? Perhaps not. Ortiz appeared not to have used all his fuel at the end of the Pegasus, where Colonel Liam, forced to rally outside through the stretch, got up over stablemate Largent, who saved all the ground. Pletcher, too, said Colonel Liam has continued progressing since that race, working better than he ever has on dirt. Colonel Liam was 5-2 facing 11 foes in the Pegasus. He’ll be shorter Saturday. What price would be considered fair? Likely not what is offered on Colonel Liam.

Value-seekers might look to the third- and fifth-place Pegasus finishers, Cross Border and Pixelate, respectively. Seven-year-old Cross Border, though, has roughly zero room for improvement and was beaten in December at Fair Grounds in the Diliberto Memorial. Pixelate, a 4-year-old like Colonel Liam, has far greater latitude to improve and has logged strong Fair Grounds work for this engagement, trainer Mike Stidham said this week. Post 12 is an impediment, but the Muniz starts at the head of the homestretch and jockey Luis Saez should have plenty of time to find position.

Breaking from the other end of the starting gate is Factor This, who ruled the Fair Grounds older-horse turf division during 2020 and can’t be ruled out Saturday. On the surface, Factor This ran below form last month finishing fifth as the favorite in the Fair Grounds Stakes. But, racing over a rain-sodden course, he was dueled into submission by Spectacular Gem, who applied relentless pressure to confirmed front-runner Factor This.

“I like him a lot better coming into this race than the last one,” trainer Brad Cox said after watching Factor This work last weekend.

The top three home in the Feb. 13 Fair Grounds – Captivating Moon, Logical Myth, and Peace Achieved – return for the Muniz. Peace Achieved seemed to run over his head on a wet course, but Captivating Moon, while he handled the softer going, might also have appreciated getting back on turf for the first time in eight starts and just the second time since August 2019. Logical Myth has proved a revelation since being claimed and gelded last year. With favorable trips over the Fair Grounds grass, he won the Diliberto Memorial in December and the Col. E.R. Bradley in February. His journey last month in the Fair Grounds was more challenging, but Logical Myth still finished well for second.

“Having the home-turf advantage, as clichéd as it sounds, definitely is to our benefit,” said trainer Joe Sharp.

Spooky Channel won the John Connally over 1 1/2 miles at Sam Houston in his last start and has some big figures in his past. Two Emmys, who beat the talented Darrain two back, might be the only entrant capable of keeping Factor This honest up front.

Colonel Liam or not, it’s a competitive race, this Muniz – perhaps more so than the betting will indicate.