Coastal Mission better than he appears in Toboggan

Go strictly by the numbers and you might not like Coastal Mission to win the $175,000 Toboggan Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct. Go by the names, however, and he stands a great chance.

Coastal Mission posted a modest 91 Beyer Speed Figure in his most recent start, a number seemingly too low to win the Toboggan. Yet that number came from Coastal Mission’s creditable fourth-place finish in the Cigar Mile, a Grade 2 race loaded with Grade 1 horses.

Locked, a Grade 1 winner in 2023, returned from his win in the Cigar with a fine second in the Pegasus World Cup. Cigar runner-up Mullikin won the Grade 1 Forego in August by almost six lengths, and third-place Cigar finisher Post Time finished second five weeks earlier with a 102 Beyer in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. In fifth, turned back late by Coastal Mission, came Book’em Danno, winner of the Grade 1 Woody Stephens last summer.

Any of those horses at their best would comfortably outclass the other six entrants in the seven-furlong Toboggan, and so might Coastal Mission.

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Coastal Mission can get a mile, especially around one turn, but the distance probably is a tick farther than ideal. Gaining on the leader, Coastal Mission dove to the inside in upper stretch of the Cigar Mile, flattening out slightly in the last half-furlong.

At the Toboggan’s seven-furlong trip, Coastal Mission has gone 7-2-1 in 10 starts. Trained by Jeff Runco, he should get a good stalking trip under regular rider Arnaldo Bocachica.

The weather forecast calls for a sunny Saturday at Aqueduct, another point in Coastal Mission’s favor. That’s not the case for Maximus Meridius, second choice at 3-1 on the morning line behind Coast Mission at 5-2.

While he’s hardly hapless on a fast main track, Maximus Meridius has three wins from five wet-track starts and has gone 1 for 7 on dry dirt. His first stakes try against older horses, the Dec. 28 Gravesend, came on a sloppy Aqueduct track, though Maximus Meridius deserves credit for a game victory in that one.

Racing along the rail just behind the pacesetter, Maximus Meridius held his position into the far turn before taking the lead and briefly going clear. Full Moon Madness, another Toboggan runner, ranged alongside in upper stretch, but not only did Maximus Meridius turn him away, he increased his lead on the gallop-out.

While wet tracks generally have helped Maximus Meridius, a sloppy Parx Racing surface particularly aided Nelson Avenue in the Dec. 31 Blitzen Stakes. Nelson Avenue won that race by 11 1/4 lengths with a 102 Beyer, a far cry from his eighth in the Cigar Mile.

Coastal Mission beat Nelson Avenue soundly in the Cigar and by one length in the one-mile Forty Niner – and is very likely to beat him again Saturday.

Moonlit Drive likely to improve

Moonlit Drive’s status as the 6-5 morning-line favorite reveals the nature of the $125,000 Ruthless Stakes. The six-furlong dash for 3-year-old fillies drew just five entrants, and none have run especially fast.

Moonlit Drive, a Jay Em Ess Stable homebred trained by Michelle Nevin, has started once, winning a Jan. 10 maiden sprint by a neck with a 68 Beyer. While she debuted at odds of 16-1, she probably merits her short price in the Ruthless.

With jockey Manny Franco aboard, Moonlit Drive stalked the pace from fourth into the far turn of her first race and made a solid wide move past the three-furlong marker into the homestretch. After belatedly changing leads at the furlong grounds, she ran down pacesetting first-timer Taste of Diamonds, who finished more than five lengths clear of third.

Moonlit Drive is by Quality Road out of Grade 1 winner By the Moon, whose son, Full Moon Madness, is a contender in the Toboggan Stakes on Saturday’s card. Moonlit Drive has the look of a debut winner with second-start upside, while the two horses who have run faster than she, Win N Your In and Hollywood Beauty, are more likely to perform worse than in their most recent race.

Hollywood Beauty, making her first start for trainer Marya Montoya on Dec. 30, bumped her best Beyer from a 51 to a 76 in winning a Parx Racing stakes by 8 1/4 lengths, a breakthrough almost certainly linked to a sloppy surface.

Win N Your In has already run seven times and was faster last summer than she’s been this winter.

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