Closing longshots key for big Derby payouts

How do you find a Kentucky Derby longshot worth tossing onto tickets?

The simple answer would be to sidle on over to the Dallas Stewart barn.

Stewart, defying astronomical odds, has two years in a row sent out a bomber who finished second and lit up the Derby tote board. Commanding Curve hit at 37-1 last year, paying $31.80 to place and partnering with race favorite California Chrome for a $340 exacta. And in 2013, it was Golden Soul chugging home second to the favored Orb at 34-1, paying $38.60 to place and keying an exacta that paid $981.60.

Sadly, the Stewart-trained Derby horse this year is Tale of Verve. He’s stuck two-deep on the also-eligible list, and if the runners-up the last two years deserved to be 30-1, Tale of Verve, a mere maiden winner, should be 3,000-1.

Obviously, the two-year Stewart trend is crazy and barely worth attending to on its surface, but the key is the type of horses Commanding Curve and Golden Soul were.

They were not fast on speed figures, and neither has turned out to be of much substance. Both years, there were several others in the race who, on bare quality, were their superiors. But they were the right horses on that day, which is what matters, and most of all, they had the profile that has consistently produced the most long-priced horses in Derby superfectas during the last decade: Clunk-along late runners who picked up the pieces after horses close to a hot pace had wilted, or horses running into trouble had gotten discouraged, or horses who simply could not get the distance stopped.

And make no mistake: There is a very good chance that another such horse will emerge in 2015, even in a field that feels unusually stocked with talent.

For the purposes of grouping, let us call a “Derby longshot” a horse priced 15-1 or higher. Under that restriction, every Derby since 2003 has seen such a horse finish in the top four.

Even when there are several really good horses, like in 2007, when Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Curlin ran 1-2-3, one late-running long price, 28-1 I’mawildandcrazyguy, blew up the Derby superfecta. Yes, the $2 super combining the three best horses with the run-along closer paid $29,046.40.

I’mawildandcrazyguy had been fourth in the Louisiana Derby and sixth in the Florida Derby. He was not especially fast, earning Beyer Speed Figures of 89 and 92 in those races, but what he did show were running lines that always went forward: He was passing horses, and in the Derby, where the pace that year was strong but not insane, there was additional distance in which to pass and plenty of stopping animals to pass.

It is not always a Derby-prep also-ran who surprises at a price. I’ll Have Another was 15-1 in 2012 despite having won – yes, won – the Santa Anita Derby. His style, though, was different than the standard pick-up-the-pieces closer at a huge price. I’ll Have Another had positional speed, and he stalked more than closed, his cause aided by facing a field that looks soft compared to this year’s potential star-studded group.

Animal Kingdom in 2011 came from 12th to win at 20-1, exiting a win in the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes and making his dirt debut, but that was a strange year. No one knew whom to bet. Dialed In (remember him?) was the 5-1 favorite, which says a lot. The pace was slow, yet somehow Animal Kingdom rallied successfully.

Another oddity that year: Shackleford held fourth at 20-1, the only speed horse in the last decade to finish in the top four as a Derby longshot. You have to go back to 2002, when 20-1 pace horse War Emblem saw off 23-1 pace-presser Proud Citizen, to find a Derby where longshot speed got all the way home.

Nope, it’s the bomber closers who should be on your radar if you’re playing trifectas and supers: Besides the horses already mentioned, Went the Day Well (30-1), Make Music For Me (30-1), Mine That Bird (50-1), Denis of Cork (27-1), Steppenwolfer (16-1), Jazil (24-1), Giacomo (50-1), and Don’t Get Mad (29-1) all came from the tail end of the field to hit the board in the last decade.

And that’s a strong trend: 40 top-four placings were available during the time span, and 11 went to closers at odds of 24-1 or higher. That’s leaving out the late-running Steppenwolfer, who barely qualified as a longshot, and the longshot stalkers who found success, which would add five more horses to the list.

So, you ask, who could qualify this year?

In post-position order:

Danzig Moon is 30-1 on the line and likely will fall out toward the tail end of the field. He deserves a long, long look.
International Star, like I’ll Have Another, won his Derby prep, in his case the Louisiana Derby, and will nevertheless qualify as a longshot. Gotta throw him in.

Keen Ice was fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Was well beaten. Doesn’t look like much on paper. But what he does look like? I’mawildandcrazyguy, Commanding Curve, and Golden Soul. Consider him for fourth at 50-1 or higher.

And finally, Far Right, dusted by eight lengths by American Pharoah in the Arkansas Derby. The lauded American Pharoah might well dust him again, and Far Right in a game of 1-on-1 wouldn’t have a prayer against the Derby favorite. But this is a game of 20 horses, and those like Far Right get into the mix all the time.