Clocker: No reason to knock Nyquist

CHURCHILL DOWNS

Weather: Cloudy

Track: Good

Temp.: 46

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – Thursday was the chilliest day yet on the Kentucky Derby watch, with temperatures in the mid-40s when the track opened and still straining to reach 50 by the time the Derby-Oaks training session began at 8:30 a.m.

The brisk weather had just about everybody on their toes, including NYQUIST, who was full of energy, dropping down to the rail while blowing out through the wire and into the turn. He proved to be quite a handful for regular rider Jonny Garcia to pull up down the backstretch. It was Nyquist’s best day yet since arriving from Keeneland, and he gives every indication that he’s happy, healthy, and on top of his game heading into the Derby.

Several others were similarly on the muscle here Thursday, including DANZING CANDY, who has adapted well since arriving from the West Coast earlier in the week, as well as SHAGAF, SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS, and MY MAN SAM. OUTWORK had another in a series of good mornings, as did the Steve Asmussen pair of CREATOR and GUN RUNNER. I didn’t see MO TOM at his best today, while MOR SPIRIT seemed a bit tentative while moving over the wet track. MOHAYMEN was pretty relaxed again Thursday except when passing through the finish line, where he again became unsettled, briefly trying to run off with his rider before quickly coming back to hand on the clubhouse turn. OSCAR NOMINATED caught the eye for the first time today with a lively gallop, while LANI, as usual, spent the most time of any of the Derby starters on the track.

The following are impressions of all 20 Derby starters from observations made both here and at Keeneland over the past two weeks.

TROJAN NATION – Haven’t seen enough from the Wood Memorial runner-up in the short while he’s been on the grounds that would indicate he’s about to win his maiden in the Kentucky Derby. He was on his left lead both times down the stretch during a routine gallop here Thursday.

SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS – Has made a very favorable impression, both during regular training sessions and in his final Derby work last weekend. This steadily improving colt seems to be sitting on another big effort at what figures to be a very square price.

CREATOR – Has looked good from Day 1 of my arrival at Churchill Downs. Loved the way he was striding out during the latter stages of his penultimate Derby work on April 25, and he has continued to train forwardly. He has been a little rambunctious during paddock-schooling sessions, which might be an indication of just how good he’s feeling. Like Suddenbreakingnews, he’s a member of the Arkansas Derby field who continues to move forward at the right time. Looks like one of the major players if able to work out a trip from the rear of the bulky field.

MO TOM – Unlucky sort has regularly had a great energy level over the last two weeks, galloping more than two miles – the second at better than a two-minute clip – and jogging nearly a third daily. He seems to be coming up to a big effort, although he will have to move well forward from a speed-figures standpoint to crack the leaderboard, even with a clean trip.

GUN RUNNER – Has trained forwardly on a regular basis. He does make some noise while completing workouts, although whatever the issue, it doesn’t seem to impact his performance level, and he should get good early position with a bevy of closers breaking to his inside. Like Mo Tom, he’ll have to move well forward from a numbers standpoint to compete with the faster ones in this field.

MY MAN SAM – He’s had a very good two weeks since arriving locally, showing plenty of spunk in the mornings and looking very sound and happy coming into this race. Both workouts here seem to have been of a maintenance mode by design. Like some other intriguing outsiders in this lineup, he seems to be sitting on a big effort. It’s just a matter of whether he’s good enough.

OSCAR NOMINATED – Couldn’t knock his one local workout, and he looked strong galloping over the track Thursday. But on paper, he seems to be overmatched.

LANI – The enigmatic and unpredictable United Arab Emirates Derby winner has trained in an unorthodox manner, regularly spending at least twice as much time on the track as his 19 rivals, and while many of his daily gallops have been impressive, he’s been very reluctant when set down to breeze and was a handful trying to school at the gate. None of this can be taken as a positive sign heading into this type of event.

DESTIN – Seemed a little unfocused and got noticeably hot in his first few visits to the track after shipping here from south Florida but has improved in both regards this past week. Liked what I saw watching him work at Palm Beach Downs, although he did seem to tire some here during the latter stages of what was really a seven-furlong work last weekend with Javier Castellano up. His win in the Tampa Bay Derby is one of the fastest races from a speed-figure standpoint of any member of this field. I wouldn’t be surprised in the least if he jumped up with another big performance, although I prefer stablemate Outwork a tad more.

WHITMORE – Another who has taken the Arkansas route to Louisville, and like Creator and Suddenbreakingnews, he’s been looking good training here these past two weeks. Expecting his best yet, and he will be a price. It’s just a question of whether he can work out a trip and, like many of the others, if he’s good enough to compete with the likes of Nyquist and the other top members of this division.

EXAGGERATOR – Comes off a terrific performance in the Santa Anita Derby, although he was likely aided by the wet track and a race flow that played right into his hands. His one local work was just okay, and he’s seemed to have bounced out of it well from the looks of all subsequent gallops. A tough one to gauge but obviously a top contender if able to repeat his last.

TOM’S READY – His trainer, Dallas Stewart, finished second with Derby longshots in 2013 and 2014. He’s hard to knock off anything seen here of late, and he does have a bit of a home-court advantage over most of the others. His final work was above average, and while the gut reaction is that he’s not good enough, you have to wonder if lightning can strike again from this barn on Derby Day.

NYQUIST – Everybody seems to be looking for a reason to play against the Derby favorite, but except for the price and perhaps a nagging suspicion that he might not get the distance, he’s done nothing to suggest he’s not sitting on another huge effort. The second of his two Derby works at Keeneland was impressive. It was designed as a maintenance move but turned out to be much stronger than that, and he’s looked very sharp since vanning over to Churchill Downs last weekend. Don’t see any real chinks in his armor leading up to Derby Day. Strictly the one to beat.

MOHAYMEN – He’s been a handful for much of his stay in Kentucky, although both of his local works were very sharp. He has settled down a bit of late, although he continues to show a propensity to start dragging his rider, for some reason, once approaching the finish line, and I’m just wondering if his rider, Junior Alvarado, will be able to get him to settle in the opening quarter-mile on Saturday. Bears watching in the paddock because he did get pretty hot prior to his subpar performance in the Florida Derby. Have the feeling he’s going to be a lot more of a factor in the early pace than originally expected.

OUTWORK – He’s regularly made the best appearance of any member of this field. A big, strapping colt with a long, impressive stride, he also turned in arguably the most eye-catching final Derby prep, finishing strong and galloping out with excellent energy here last weekend. Lightly raced son of Uncle Mo continues to improve with every start and is another who gives every indication that he’s going to peak on Derby Day.

SHAGAF – He’ll be a longshot coming off a dull effort, albeit over a wet track, in the Wood Memorial, but he looks like one of the favorites from the appearance he’s made since shipping in from New York and the manner in which he galloped out a long way at such a strong pace after completing his final Derby breeze. He’s going to have to run a lifetime-best race and then some to impact the final result, but he certainly seems to be sitting on a much-improved effort.

MOR SPIRIT – His second local work was a major improvement over his first, but he has been a little rank to handle in both local breezes while also showing a tendency to hang some at the end while going in company with the 4-year-old maiden Jimbo Fallon. He displayed the same tendency when failing to kick on late as the favorite in both the San Felipe Stakes and Santa Anita Derby. Like with Mohaymen, I’m getting the feeling that the eagerness he’s shown in those two works may put him a lot closer to the pace than one might have originally expected.

MAJESTO – A very impressive-looking colt, he’s turned in a series of nice, strong gallops locally, although I was expecting to see a little more at the end of what really wound up being a seven-furlong work last weekend, especially since he trained this winter on the deeper track at Gulfstream Park West. He is an improving sort, however, and should be running some at the end.

BRODY’S CAUSE – Turned in a killer work prior to his victory in the Blue Grass Stakes and seems to be maintaining that form, although his final Derby breeze, while good, was not quite up to that standard. He was no match for Destin or Outwork in the Tampa Bay Derby, but that race is a toss. I’m expecting another big performance if he can avoid getting hung out to dry from such a tough post.

DANZING CANDY – He’s made a favorable impression since arriving from the West Coast, although he was pulling hard in his first two local gallops. He could be dangerous if able to repeat his front-running victory in the San Felipe, although he is more than a little suspect at the distance. It will be very interesting to see what strategy the speedster employs after breaking from the outside. He could go a long way in deciding the outcome of this event.