Class of 2021

Simon Rowlands shares his exclusive sectional ratings on this season's leading Royal Ascot-bound juveniles.

One of the unexpected consequences of racing being suspended during the first lockdown last spring was a certain clarity of intent when the show came back on the road.

The two-year-old scene was particularly affected, as an entire early-season in Britain was crammed into June. Many of those juveniles who did appear early in the month were clearly being aimed at Royal Ascot just a couple of weeks later.

There was less form to go on, but no messing about from those who did appear. Most of the races took place on similar ground, too. That is not the case this time round.

April was very dry, leading to firmer ground than usual, while May was very wet, leading to soft ground and even abandonments. It is, at this stage, unclear which will prevail at the Royal Meeting, though the smart money is on good ground and firmer.

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All that should be taken into account when considering the claims of youngsters lining up for their biggest tests yet. Ratings achieved on soft ground may prove to be of little worth on firm, and vice versa.

There are six juvenile races in all during Royal Ascot, and I will look at what it usually takes, in terms of ratings, to win or run well in each of them before moving onto some of the more obvious candidates. I do not have any special insight into which horses will run in which races, so discretion with bets before declaration is advised.

Tuesday: Coventry Stakes, Group 2 6f. Average win rating: 111. Average third: 105. The strongest juvenile race at the meeting, recent winners ranging from 121-rated Caravaggio in 2016 to 106-rated Nando Parrado last year.

Wednesday: Queen Mary Stakes, Group 2 5f. Average win rating: 110. Average third: 95. The pick of the fillies’ races, with 122-rated Lady Aurelia in 2016 the stand-out winner in recent years (one of two Wesley Ward-trained winners in the last five), though getting placed is not always so tough.

Wednesday: Windsor Castle Stakes, Listed 5f. Average win rating: 105. Average third: 97. What should be the poor cousin of the Norfolk Stakes manages almost to rival it, 107-rated Tactical last year one of the better recent winners.

Thursday: Norfolk Stakes, Group 2 5f. Average win rating: 108. Average third: 100. Most recent winners have been smart but no better, Sioux Nation (112 rating) the pick of them on the day.

Friday: Albany Stakes, Group 3 6f. Average win rating: 106. Average third: 97. Inferior in terms of winners to the Queen Mary but slightly more strength in depth of late. Different League (110) in 2017 is marginally the highest-rated recent winner.

Saturday: Chesham Stakes, Listed 7f. Average win rating 106. Average third: 97. A race with a fine record of producing good horses, not least the winners Pinatubo(rated 116) in 2019 and Churchillin 2016, and third-placedMasar in 2017. The bare form is not always that strong on the day, though.

My highest-rated juvenile in Britain and Ireland is the Fozzy Stack-trained CASTLE STAR (105), who misses Royal Ascot in favour of the Curragh's Railway Stakes later in the month. He ran a useful time – though 11 lb slower than the 5-y-o Group 2 winner Gustavus Weston after weight-for-age – when taking the Group 3 Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh in May from 98-rated MASSETO and came from behind in a steadily run race when a listed winner on the same course the time before. Castle Star’s best efforts have been on ground softer than good but he was beaten only a neck by another 95-rated GLOUNTHAUNE on good to firm at the Curragh.

Next in comes EBRO RIVER (104), trained by Hugo Palmer, who is difficult to assess on time/sectionals, his listed National Stakes win at Sandown being the only race on the straight course on the card. But form standards have him in the 100s and that should make him competitive at Royal Ascot.

The remainder are various shades of promising and accomplished, and I have picked out a bunch for consideration. It is impossible to include every last contender in the time and space available.

The Richard Hannon-trained GISBURN (103) looks as good a Coventry Stakes candidate as any from Britain, having won a maiden at Newbury last month by six and a half lengths from Kingmax (who has gone much closer at Haydock since). The overall time was useful, and late sectionals suggest more is to come. That was on good to soft going, tending towards soft, however.

HERMANA ESTRELLA (98) did well to win a Group 3 at Naas on her only start at 50/1 for Fozzy Stack, coming from some way back on heavy ground. However, the runner-up QUICK SUZY (101) is at least as interesting, seeming to do too much too soon (sectionals are difficult to take), two to three lengths clear and going well before wilting. Gavin Cromwell’s filly had won a maiden at the Curragh the time before in really good style and should be a contender for whichever race she contests.

POINT LONSDALE (100) looked a fine prospect when winning a 7f maiden at the Curragh on soft going for Aidan O’Brien on his only start by five and a half lengths, a performance striking enough to make him clear favourite for next year’s Derby at Epsom. He raced up with the pace before powering clear from over 1f out and would be all the rage in the Chesham, a race O’Brien has won with Churchill and Battleground among others.

DR ZEMPF (99) beat a fairly useful past winner in Elliptic in a 6f minor race at the Curragh on his only start, breaking 36.0s for the final 3f despite good to soft going. Whether it is at Royal Ascot or later, we should hear more of this expensive son of Dark Angel.

THE ACROPOLIS (98) posted a 23.82s last 2f on good to soft going when winning well at Listowel on Sunday. A son of Churchill, winner of the Chesham in 2016, he is also trained by Aidan O’Brien.

CADAMOSTO (97) made a good impression when winning at 5f at Dundalk in April for Aidan O’Brien by three and a half lengths, in a useful time and with solid late splits. He has not been seen since but looks a smart sprinting prospect.

FLOTUS (97) won easily on her only start, at Goodwood in May, accompanied by some really healthy Course Track-derived sectionals (23.98s last 2f on what was soft going). The Albany Stakes looks an obvious target for the Crisford-trained filly.

TENEBRISM (96) has not been seen since winning a maiden easily at Naas on heavy going in March with some power-packed late splits (approximately 25.2s for final 2f), but deserves respect if she lines up for Aidan O’Brien on what is likely to be very different going.

BEAUTIFUL SUNSHINE (95) is not the easiest to assess in that, like Ebro River, her stand-out effort came in isolation on the 5f track at Sandown (and on heavy ground for good measure), a race in which the runners went fast early and slower late. But she put big margins on her rivals and could easily be useful.

OSCULA (95) won the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom with authority for George Boughey despite her jockey being unable to claim, though that was on soft ground and with slow late sectionals.

HELLO YOU (94) was a six-and-a-half length winner of a fillies’ novice at Wolverhampton for Ralph Beckett, running a sprightly 23.54s for the last 2f according to TPD figures, and looks a decent type for the Albany, her striding pointing to her not being an out-and-out sprinter. However, the runner-up in that Wolverhampton race, White Jasmine, was a beaten favourite at Haydock on Wednesday.

YET (94) made a favourable impression, without recording an especially fast time, when beating the similarly promising Orinoco River at 5f at Dundalk on her only start. She is by War Front, out of a half-sister to Giant’s Causeway, who was, of course, also trained by Aidan O’Brien.

NYMPHADORA (93) took a 5f listed race at York on her second start in ready style for Andrew Balding, though standards and sectionals suggest it was fairly useful form, rather than better, without much justification for an upgrade.

NEW SCIENCE (90) won a slowly run 7f novice at Yarmouth from the front on his only start with a 23.26s split for the last 2f. While that does not put him far ahead of his rivals that day on sectionals, and leaves him with plenty to find for the Chesham, the Charlie Appleby-trained colt is quite stoutly bred and all about potential.

DHABAB (90) wowed the Breeze-Up watchers and duly obliged a few weeks later in a 6f maiden at Leicester for the Gosdens by two lengths. The time was useful, rather than better, and Dhabab took a while to warm to his task in a well-run race, but you can bet he will improve.

I would be lying if I claimed to know the US two-year-old form back to front, but my idea of the best prospects from the Wesley Ward stable are TWILIGHT GLEAMING (106), who won a $90k Maiden Special Weight at Belmont in May (5f, turf) by seven and a half lengths and in a 0.43s faster time than LUCCI(96) took a similar race earlier on the card, and NAKATOMI (105).

The last-named beat Happy Soul by two and a quarter lengths in a $60k MSW at Keeneland (4.5f, sloppy dirt) and Happy Soul has since gone on to wide-margin wins at Belmont, looking decidedly smart.

Twilight Gleaming is carrying some of my money for what looks a seriously hot Queen Mary Stakes, while Nakatomi is likely to be doing the same for the Norfolk Stakes once a few more bookmakers bet on the race.