City of Troy has supporters, detractors in Epsom Derby

To find an Aidan O’Brien colt who had been a top 2-year-old, flopped as the favorite in the 2000 Guineas, and returned to win the Derby, one must go all the way back to . . . 2023.

Auguste Rodin ran 12th in the Guineas last year and a month later won the Derby, and City of Troy follows the same pattern. Europe’s top 2-year-old of 2023, City of Troy was odds-on facing 10 in the Guineas and lost by 17 lengths with no obvious excuse. O’Brien a couple weeks later held a media scrum at Ballydoyle, his training yard in Ireland, where he set about proving, through rough measurement, that City of Troy was not, as some had observed, a smallish colt. He said City of Troy had gotten upset in the starting gate, racing too freely on the lead in the Guineas before going flat.

We shall see. City of Troy still heads the antepost betting for Saturday’s Derby at Epsom, but his support has grown increasingly tenuous as punters try to decide whether to forgive the Guineas or hold it against him. The latter seems the better approach, given City of Troy’s price and several appealing alternatives.

:: Bet the races with a $200 First Deposit Match + FREE All Access PPs! Join DRF Bets.

One comes from the O’Brien barn, Los Angeles, a colt who has been, compared to City of Troy, nearly invisible. He also is 3 for 3 to start his career, a Group 1 winner at 2, and a strong candidate to lead O’Brien’s three-runner team. Los Angeles, by Camelot, went to France in October to make his second start in the 1 1/4-mile Criterium de Saint-Cloud. Racing over very soft ground – which could prove useful Saturday at Epsom, where the going will be less than good – Los Angeles won by a neck as a 6-1 chance, finishing far in front of his favored stablemate, Illinois. In second was a horse named Stunning Peach, subsequently sold and sent to Hong Kong. A bit of a roly-poly sort at age 2, Los Angeles appeared more fully formed this spring, when he traveled well over good ground at Leopardstown and won a 1 1/4-mile Derby trial by 1 1/4 lengths.

Ancient Wisdom’s trainer, Charlie Appleby, hopes the Epsom course is soft, at best. Ancient Wisdom was a Group 1 winner last fall over heavy going at Doncaster, but racing on good ground at York in the Dante Stakes, a major Derby prep, he was beaten six lengths by Economics, whose connections held him out of the Derby.

Ambiente Friendly was a smashing winner of a Derby trial at Lingfield on May 11 but looks like a colt better suited to firmer footing. That may not be the case with Dancing Gemini, who couldn’t cope with the very demanding course in the Futurity Trophy, the Group 1 Ancient Wisdom won, but was a surging second of 13 making his 3-year-old debut in the Group 1 Poule d’Essais des Poulains, the French 2000 Guineas. Dancing Gemini should prefer distances longer than that one-mile trip and stands to improve.

Finally, don’t sleep on Voyage, who has only one start behind him. That race, over 1 1/4 miles at Newbury, was extremely impressive. Voyage raced on the bridle, not asked for anything, while holding a lead through 1 1/8 miles. When his jockey finally started riding, Voyage jumped to his other lead, and once back on track steamed to a 1 3/4-length tally while never feeling the crop.

:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.