Cincinnatian a mystery to sort out
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There are limited stakes opportunities on turf in Ohio, as Belterra Park in Cincinnati is the only one of the state’s three Thoroughbred tracks with a grass course. Thus, it’s not entirely unusual that none of the nine entrants in Friday’s $75,000 Cincinnatian Stakes for Ohio-accredited 3-year-old fillies at Belterra has ever run on turf.
Pedigree and past performances at various distances become essential to sifting out who might take to the new surface. But adding an additional wrinkle to this year’s Cincinnatian, none of the fillies have ever won at this 1 1/16-mile distance, making it even more of a puzzle.
Parlay is favored as a homebred for the powerful “Winblaze” partnership of prominent Ohio trainer and breeder Tim Hamm and Kentucky-based WinStar Farm. The partnership stands her sire, National Flag, at Hamm’s Blazing Meadows in Ohio.
Parlay is a two-time stakes winner and is multiple stakes-placed against colts, including a second by a nose in the Joshua Radosevich Memorial on a sloppy track. However, Parlay was a well-beaten second in the Best of Ohio John W. Galbreath last fall in her first try at 1 1/16 miles and, most recently, faded to sixth after being well-placed early in the Best of Ohio Queen City Oaks at the same distance.
Parlay is one of two in this field by National Flag, along with Lil Bit, an allowance winner at a mile and one of just a few in this field to succeed while going that far. National Flag did his best work as a dirt sprinter, but the son of the versatile Speightstown is currently sixth on the Ohio turf sires list. His top turf runners include Miz Keeta and Brief Encounter, one-two in the 2024 Cincinnatian, and Villian and Shadowy, who have both placed in Best of Ohio turf stakes.
Parlay’s dam, Miss Emma Maria, won at a mile on the turf, and there is more grass ability deeper in the family. If those abilities shine through they can push Parlay over the hump and she could rebound here.
Coloryoureggs, the second choice, has won three straight races, all at six furlongs. She and Dancehall Justice are both by the distance-loving Birdrun. Dancehall Justice is another allowance winner at a mile and owns multiple wins on wet tracks, which is often an indicator of grass-course adaptability.
Birdrun, by classic winner and classic sire Birdstone, was a multiple stakes winner at 1 1/2 miles, including the Grade 2 Brooklyn. He was also second in the Breeders’ Cup Marathon at 1 3/4 miles.
His foals do not have the opportunity to run that far in Ohio, but it stands to reason that 1 1/16 miles should be well within his daughters’ scope.
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