Churchill Downs handicapping roundup: Week of Nov. 9

Lanerie's riding fortunes improve at Churchill

Through this past weekend, with six racing days complete in the Churchill Downs fall meet, it was already apparent how much this meet was differing from the just-completed October meet at Keeneland.

Some trainers and jockeys that didn’t make a big splash at Keeneland are doing well at Churchill, and those that ruled at Keeneland have gone cold.

Among jockeys, Corey Lanerie topped all riders with 11 winners from 44 mounts though the first six days at Churchill, good for a 25 percent strike rate, five times the rate at which he won at Keeneland, when he won with approximately 5 percent of his mounts when going 4 for 86.

Besides riding horses better suited to dirt than those on the Polytrack at Keeneland, Lanerie appears more comfortable at Churchill, successfully gambling with inside-rallying horses, for example. Churchill, with its long stretch and turns that are banked more than Keeneland’s, is better suited to this riskier strategy. Holes have a way of opening up.

Also, with Calvin Borel sidelined with a fractured leg after being injured at Keeneland, the rail, a position Borel would regularly target, is more often open.

On the flip side, jockey Rosie Napravnik, who topped the Keeneland fall standings, hasn’t fared as well at Churchill with a record of 2 for 26 through Sunday.

Bad luck has played a role. She was injured in a spill one day, losing several mounts due to soreness, and was at Santa Anita this past Saturday to ride Untapable in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, and had to ease her filly.

One of her chief supporters, trainer Mike Maker, also hasn’t been nearly as hot as he was at Keeneland, where he topped the standings. After Sunday, Maker was 1 for 22, with his winner coming in a turf race. On dirt, his horses were 0 for 17.

Maker has long been one of Churchill’s top trainers, so don’t expect his cold start to last. Look for him to heat up, especially given that 41 percent of his horses have finished among the top three.

When horses are running competitively but not winning, they retain their conditions and are often among the favorites in their next races.

Bret Calhoun has proven hottest early in the Churchill meet, with 7 winners from 16 starts, giving him a four-win lead over Steve Asmussen and Tom Amoss in the standings.

Miguel Mena, his regular go-to rider, is having a successful Churchill meet. He trails only Lanerie in the standings with 6 winners from 39 mounts.

With Julien Leparoux now shifting his tack back to Churchill after being based in California, expect him to make an immediate impact, though catching Lanerie is improbable.

Couple of fast races

With so many horseplayers understandably focused on the racing at Santa Anita for the Breeders’ Cup last week, perhaps missed at Churchill were several flashy performances.

Don’t Tell Sophia, making her second start off a layoff, won the Chilukki with a striking last-to-first rally – a performance that earned her a 100 Beyer Speed Figure. Off that fine effort, she will likely be the favorite in the Falls City Handicap closing week.

As fast as she ran, Our Double Play ran even quicker in winning a third-level allowance in the slop on Halloween. In beating Bourbon Courage, he ran a 103 Beyer, clearly relishing the off going.

Cardinal Handicap preview

On deck Saturday is the $100,000 Cardinal Handicap, a Grade 3 race at 1 1/8 miles on the grass that is coming up strong for its modest purse.

Solid Appeal, winner of the Grade 2 Dance Smartly and the Nassau at Woodbine this summer for trainer Reade Baker, is likely to be among the favorites, along with fellow graded stakes winners Somali Lemonade, Miz Ida, and Starstruck.

Abaco, Grandma’s Rules, Prissy, and Beijoca are other horses being pointed for the race.

Rain impacts field size

Despite purses dropping from the levels of Churchill’s September meet, fields have remained large when they haven’t been impacted by weather. This can be attributed to fewer tracks running at this time of year, leaving a larger pool of horses to attract.

Unfortunately, wet weather last Wednesday and Thursday turned the track sloppy and diminished field sizes, particularly in the scheduled turf races that were moved to the main track. Even Friday’s grass races were taken off the turf, although the main track had dried sufficiently to be rated fast.

In total, six scheduled grass races were run on dirt due to the rain, and often what was left were some rather unattractive betting races with short fields.

Skillful placement by trainer Tom Amoss by entering two horses as main-track-only entrants on Friday led to a banner day for him. Both his main-track-only horses, Southern Dude in Friday’s second race and Hazards of Love in the sixth, won as short-priced favorites.

He also won the first race last Friday with Phat Day in a starter race carded for dirt.

Owner Maggi Moss teamed with Amoss to win two races Friday, and she also won another with trainer Chris Richard in the day’s last race when Dynamic Knight scored by a nose at odds of 11-1.