Churchill Downs: DRF Plus handicapping report for November 28, 2013

Race 1

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Race 2

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Race 3

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Race 4

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Race 5

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Race 6

Vulnerable Favorite

BENERGY (#4, 9-5) hasn’t raced on dirt since about the Bronze Age, wasn’t very good on it in 2 starts, & has failed to win a race since 2010. Does that sound like a horse on which to take a short price? - Marcus Hersh

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Race 7

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Race 8

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Race 9

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Race 10

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Race 11

The first thing to know about the Falls City is that #3 Fiftyshadesofhay (the theoretical highweight with 120 pounds, considering 3-year-olds still get 3 pounds from their elders in the fall) is scratched.

The second thing to know is this race most likely will NOT set up like the Chilukki did, i.e., as a one-turn race with a blistering pace. Knowing that, perhaps it’s best to downgrade the way Don’t Tell Sophia came running past a bunch of these after being conserved early. Indeed, with the stretchout to two turns and nine furlongs, this could unfold in a dramatically different way, and we’ll give Magic Hour a big chance to fare far better than she did as one of the Chilukki front-runners.

In fact, Magic Hour defeated Don’t Tell Sophia two starts back when allowed to walk the dog out front. With the possibility of that scenario occurring again, let’s get Magic Hour (#5) a big chance at a price (12-1 M/L, although that’s without the fave out yet) to at least hold on for a share in this Thanksgiving Day fixture. Let’s also use her with the two reliable ones, Flashy American (#1) and Don’t Tell Sophia (#9) and sprinkle in the likes of My Option (#6) and Wine Princess (#8).

The bet: Key #5 up, back, sideways and any-other-ways with the other contenders mentioned here, sing her in tri’s and supers as the key play 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, such as: 5 with 1/9 with 1/6/8/9; 1/9 with 5 with 5/6/8/9; and however many other variations thereof you care to spread with. - Marty McGee

Spot Play

MY OPTION (#6, 8-1) is likely to be overlooked in the Falls City despite being a consistent, high-class performer and a winner at the 1 1/8-mile distance; gets in light and might spring the upset. – Byron King

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