Churchill Downs: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 3, 2014
Race 1 |
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Race 2 |
Spot PlayB AND B'S PULPIT (#4, 12-1) may have been overmatched last time, and his excuse two back was that he was against one of the strongest rail biases we've seen anywhere this year; dangerous closer given some pace help. -Kenny Peck
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Race 3 |
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Race 4 |
Spot PlayFLASHY GAL (#7, 4-1) unseen since being off the board last summer in race which produced three next out winners and a runnerup in 100k stake; will accept tick below listed price. - Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 5 |
Spot PlayTHUNDERGRAM (#7, 6-1) had a deceptively difficult trip in the Arkansas Derby, though he may have been in over his head anyway; he's been routing but his running style suggests this could be his best distance after all. -Kenny Peck THUNDERGRAM (#7, 6-1) cuts back to one turn here out of Arkansas Derby; will play to win and exacta box with #9 JESSICA’S STAR. - Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 6 |
Distaff Turf Mile Stakes by Kenny PeckSure, CENTRE COURT (#9) is going to be a handful in the Grade 2, $300,000 Distaff Turf Mile, which is why she's 7/5 on the Morning Line. Her Beyers fit nicely, including the figure she posted last time, when she was beaten less than a length despite a tough trip against a deep field in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley. Clearly, however, there's not a lot of value there. And in looking at the field, another thing that's lacking a bit is pace, which could work to the detriment of the favorite, who will be looking to close ground late. I'M ALREADY SEXY (#6) doesn't have nearly the kind of credentials that CENTRE COURT has but she did post a 95 Beyer three back, when loose on the lead in the Pucker Up Stakes at Arlington. This is an eighth of a mile shorter, and she's making her first start off the layoff, but a relatively light-raced horse such as this, though spotting experience, could still have her best days ahead, and she may be good enough to spring an upset if she gets a favorable race flow. I'll bet I'M ALREADY SEXY to win and use her in exotics with CENTRE COURT. Live LongshotI’M ALREADY SEXY (#6, 10-1): Grade 3 winner working well readying for return to the races off five month layoff; will play to win and exacta box with #1 TAPICAT. - Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 7 |
HUmana Distaff Stakes by Randy GouldingThe Grade 1 sprint for fillies and mares features a great matchup between JUDY THE BEAUTY and MIDNIGHT LUCKY. They are the only Grade 1 winners in the field and they seem a cut above the ones they are facing. It is a tough call but we’re going to lean towards MIDNIGHT LUCKY who was sensational in all of her races except the Kentucky Oaks where according to her trainer Bob Baffert she might not have been ready to go a mile and a eighth. Considering how exceptional Beholder and Princess of Sylmar turned out we certainly aren’t going to hold that against her. The horse she easily handled in her next start in the Grade 1 Acorn, Close Hatches, won four of her next five including the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn April 12. Close Hatches only loss in the streak was a second to Beholder in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Midnight Lucky has been off for nearly a year but we all know Baffert can have them ready to roll and she appeared to handle the Churchill Downs surface just fine when she earned a bullet for her five-furlong move in :59.20 seconds April 26. She drew the perfect post and it is hard to ignore the impressive numbers when Napravnik rides for Baffert. JUDY THE BEAUTY comes into the race on top of her game, winning three of her last four including getting her first Grade 1 victory in the Madison at Keeneland April 12. Her only loss since last Oct. was a second to Groupie Doll in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint where she earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure. She is coming back in just three weeks but she wasn’t all out to win the Madison so she shouldn’t mind the relatively quick return. She’s versatile and the only knock is just one of her seven wins came on dirt. Nonetheless, two of her best races, the second to Groupie Doll, and a second in the Grade 1 Prioress in 2012, came on dirt. SCHERZINGER has improved dramatically in her last two races for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer who won the 2007 Humana Distaff with Hystericalady. Her win in the Grade 2 Santa Monica was validated when IOTAPA came back to win the Grade 2 Santa Maria and then finish second in the Grade 1 Santa Margarita. IOTAPA probably wants a bit more distance but she is a sharp horse right now and she could have a slight edge over SCHERZINGER who hasn’t raced since Jan. 25. HEART STEALER earned a decent Beyer Speed Figure for her win in the Grade 2 Inside Information at Gulfstream but it was a pretty weak field compared to what she’s up against here. We’re going to key MIDNIGHT LUCKY over JUDY THE BEAUTY in the exacta and use SCHERZINGER and IOTPA below them in the exotics. HEART STEALER has a lot to prove but she is too sharp to ignore so we’ll use her in the bottom half of any exotics ticket.
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Race 8 |
American Turf Stakes by Randy GouldingThe Grade 2 American Turf is a wide-open event featuring lightly raced 3-year-olds whose best races could be ahead of them. STORMING INTI has been installed as the 4-1 favorite and he is certainly eligible to win the race. He just missed in the Grade 3 Palm Beach and the horse that finished second came back to romp in the Grade 3 Lexington at Keeneland with a 90 Beyer Speed Figure. STORMING INTI looked pretty comfortable stalking the pace in the washed off Transylvania and it’s possible he came up empty because he didn’t love the Polytrack surface. At least he showed he can rate so if other speed shows up Castellano has more than one option. The other speed could possibly be CHIEF BARKER who will be making his first start in North America. He wasn’t up to Group 1 company in his last start in Great Britain but he won his first three races and the horse he beat in his third win at Haydock came back to win the Group 1 Shadwell Fillies Mile at Newmarket and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Santa Anita in a very fast time. He can stalk so it will be interesting to see if Graham elects to send him or let him sit off STORMING INTI. He has been firing bullets and the past five years his new trainer Larry Rivelli has a 19 percent strike rate with horses coming back from a layoff of 180 days or more. QUOTIENT is coming off a big effort in the $80K Pasadena at Santa Anita and he probably would have won the race if he didn’t have to go so wide when he started to make his late move on the second turn. GLOBAL VIEW is the only graded winner in the field and he should appreciate getting back on turf after a poor effort in the Transylvania. He was coming off a second in an allowance race at Tampa behind heavily-favored Bobby’s Kitten who finished third as the chalk in his previous start in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. PICOZZA seems to be peaking at the right time. He scored an easy win in a maiden special weight race at Gulfstream before a big effort in the Transylvania where he rallied to finish second. WOODFIELD SPRINGS is similar to PICOZZA. He looked winning a maiden special weight race at Gulfstream before getting up late to finish third in the Transylvania. CHIEF BARKER could get overlooked in the wagering and looks attractive at what should be a generous price. His win over Chriselliam stamps him as the one to beat so we’re going to hope Rivelli has him ready to roll coming off the layoff and bet him to win. In the exotics we’ll use him on top and below STORMING INTI with PICOZZA and WOODFIELD SPRINGS as the main players in the third and fourth spots.
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Race 9 |
Churchill Downs Stakes by Kenny PeckThe Grade 2, $400,000 Churchill Downs Stakes drew a deep field but one that is not long on speed. In fact, DELAUNAY (#10) looks like he'll shake loose, but his last race was sub-par, giving the indication that he's off form. He'd be easy to like if you could ignore that race, right? Well, you can. DELAUNAY was the heavy favorite in the Kenner at Fair Grounds last time but settled for 2nd behind Heitai, who set the pace while loose on the lead and down inside. DELAUNAY was outside, stalking the rival the whole way, and when the eventual winner quickened he wasn't able to stay with him. It wasn't close, either, with Heitai winning by five. DELAUNAY earned only a 93 Beyer for the effort, well below what he had regularly been posting, and bounce theorists patted themselves on the back for betting against another short-priced runner making his 2nd start off the layoff. Yet the reason DELAUNAY ran the way he did had much more to do with the track, which was exceedingly biased toward inside speed types. Horses off the rail had virtually no chance, and subsequent results have verified that, as closers on that card (and on other cards that week) have rebounded off poor efforts. Look no further than Lemon Drop Dream, who was third in the Kenner after an off-the-pace trip and returned to win in impressive fashion. DELAUNAY seems well spotted in terms of pace, and if he's able to shake loose there's no real reason he can't run to his best races, which will likely get him a victory. At or around 9/2, he's worth a win bet. I will, however, make a saver bet with SAHARA SKY (#4), who ran a GIANT race for second in the Carter last time, closing well into a very slow pace in a race lacking early pace, outside the winner, and I'll play these two in exactas.
Spot PlayDELAUNAY (#10, 9-2) disappointed as the favorite when last seen but he actually ran quite well, as he was off the rail on a day when inside speed was absolutely dominant; looms the controlling pacesetter today. -Kenny Peck Spot PlayCLEARLY NOW (#2, 9-2): up against it last out after breaking slow and racing in and among foes chasing slow pace set by wire to wire winner; think he gets much better trip today with positive jock switch. - Chuck Kuehhas
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Race 10 |
Turf Classic by Marcus HershThe last time I tried to beat WISE DAN he set a one-mile course record at Woodbine while running one of the most impressive races in North American during 2013. The Turf Classic is not a handicap, meaning Wise Dan races on fairly level weights. The turf is not going to be wet, which can lead to upsets, and Wise Dan has no problem dealing with post 1, from which he’s broken three times in his last 12 starts. There’s more. Wise Dan won his comeback race last out in the Maker’s Mark Mile, and he won fairly comfortably, but the two-time Horse of the Year clearly was not at his best. He pulled far harder in the early going than he usually does (too sharp after winter break) and appeared to get a little tired the final furlong. Maybe some would take those observations as a sign of decline; I think they suggest Wise Dan is going to take a step forward. And lets not kid ourselves: A full strength Wise Dan is just not going to lose this race. KAIGUN, who came within three-quarters of a length of Wise Dan last month, and BOISTEROUS exit peak races at Keeneland, but unlike the odds-on favorite, they are not proven machines who can deliver elite effort after elite effort, and I’d look elsewhere for Wise Dan’s exotics partners or – if one is so inclined – potential upsetters. BRIGHT THOUGHT went south pretty quickly about this time last year, but he ran two very big SoCal races before getting hurt. He was rushed back into the BC Mile last fall and never had a chance to get his feet under him late last year, but this form cycle he returned in a reasonable spot, ran decently, and has a platform from which to get back to his best now. He’s going to the front, and if OPTIMIZER doesn’t challenge him hard, he could last a long time at a big price. SEEK AGAIN also holds some interest, though he has a wide draw and is facing older horses for the first time. Still, his Hollywood Derby was a revelation and showcased a horse who appears to suit American turf racing better than the European version. One other mention, FINNEGANS WAKE, who could sneak into the trifecta at something close to 20-1.
Spot PlayTaking a shot against WISE DAN here with BOISTEROUS (#7, 8-1), who was ultra-sharp in victory in his latest at Keeneland; solid recent works indicate he retains his form. -Kenny Peck
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Race 11 |
Kentucky Derby by Marcus HershIt blows my mind when handicappers talk about “not liking anyone” in the Kentucky Derby and therefore becoming disinterested in betting the race. Or about treating the Derby like “just another race.” First, you do not have to “like” a single horse to make a play on the Derby, and second, as a seasoned handicapper there are real incentives to NOT treating this like just another race. The first is dead money. There is more dead money (i.e. comprehensively uninformed) Derby Day than on any other race day in North America. If you think you can handicap at a level better than random – and if you don’t, why would you be doing it? – you owe it to yourself to play the Derby Day card. The second is field size. Unless you are a chalk-hammerer, the prospect of a 19-horse field and the live price shots it inherently produces should prove irresistible. Finally, have you looked at exotic payoffs in the Derby? Even without keying in on a single horse, if you dabble with a series of non-favorites you think can run in the top 3 or 4, and come up with just one or two good opinions, you are in line for the sort of massive payoff that otherwise can be unearthed only by hitting a near-impossible jackpot-style wager or a pick 6 that requires a large investment to reasonably cover options. I picked INTENSE HOLIDAY to win the Derby, and if he goes off at a reasonable price, say 13-1 or higher, I’ll probably play him straight. But I look at the race in a larger context. There are people I respect who don’t think the pace this year will be fast, but I think it will with VICAR’S IN TROUBLE forced to go hard from his inside draw, UNCLE SIGH adding blinkers, WILDCAT RED a far faster need-the-lead-in-routes type than many realize, and General A Rod and Chito also supplying middle if not early pace. One other pace-playing name: CALIFORNIA CHROME, who seems destined for something like 5-2 favoritism. I like California Chrome as a racehorse and admire his performances, and if he wins the Derby in a romp I’ll cheer and then root for him in the Preakness. But I’m in the camp that thinks one and one-quarter miles in a 19-horse field at Churchill is a hugely different landscape than the one California Chrome inhabited in his flashy SoCal wins. Moreover, he’s part of the pace, and my big-picture opinion on the Derby is to focus on outside closers. While Intense Holiday most appealingly blended running style, peak performance level, and price – which is why I took him to win – there are others, most notably WICKED STRONG, who fit the winning profile I have in my head. MEDAL COUNT and CANDY BOY, and to a lesser extent COMMANDING CURVE, fall into the right category, too, and the idea is to find a way to blend them in horizontal and vertical bets, without overinvesting, and try to luck into a relatively big score. With this many horses, and if the favorite runs out, it wouldn’t take much. So please, for your own good, formulate some kind of opinion and strategy – and play the Derby.
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Race 12 |
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Race 13 |
Vulnerable FavoritePARTY TIME (#1, 3-1) is the one to beat based on his recent figures but he could have trouble running to them if he's under pressure from the start from C J'S AWESOME, among others; also note that he was off slowly from the rail in his debut. -Kenny Peck
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