Churchill Downs: DRF Plus handicapping report for May 2, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

Vulnerable Favorite

CALL TO ACTION (#3, 3-1) will take money off that debut Beyer but she's no cinch to run back to it on the stretch-out today; also, she did hang a bit late in that try, not exactly encouraging as she goes two turns for the first time. -Kenny Peck

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Race 3

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Race 4

Live Longshot

HESINFRONT (#7, 12-1): Two solid efforts on this course last year and Romans barn firing on all cylinders since meet opened; will play to win and exacta box with #11 PLAY IT LOUD. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 5

La Troienne Stakes by Kenny Peck

Those looking for longshots with value on the Oaks card at Churchill will like other races a lot more than they like the Grade 1, $300,000 La Troienne, a six horse field with only two horses listed above 7-2 on the Morning Line. But the presence of four evenly-matched runners in UNLIMITED BUDGET (#3), MAGIC UNION (#4), DEVIL'S CAVE (#5) and ON FIRE BABY (#6) makes it an interesting betting race nonetheless.

UNLIMITED BUDGET is the slight favorite on the ML at 2-1, and she will in fact likely be favored off that last last Beyer (92). She has tactical speed but can also rate, and that versatility should enable jockey John Velazquez to work out a trip regardless of how the race shapes up. DEVIL'S CAVE is the likely pacesetter, and though she wilted at a short price in the Rampart last time this slightly shorter 1 1/16 mile distance will be more to her liking, as she tired only late in the nine-furlong Rampart. That, however, assumes that ON FIRE BABY doesn't press her from the start, as a duel between these two would likely ruin the chances of both. ON FIRE BABY does have a rating gear, so she could sit off DEVIL'S CAVE, but in ON FIRE BABY's recent tries at this distance she has not rated all that effectively. MAGIC UNION, of course, would move up given any kind of duel, as she has a decent late kick.

The uncertain race flow makes UNLIMITED BUDGET easier to lead, as she's adaptable. That's a big reason why she is my top pick, and I'll use her exclusively here over the other three logical contenders in exactas, and as a single in horizontal wagers.

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Race 6

Turf Sprint Stakes by Randy Goulding

The condition of the turf course will play a big role on the outcome of the Twin Spires Turf Sprint and if the weather forecast is correct, showers Thursday and Friday, the grass could be soft. Firm or soft it appears to be a wide-open event.

STORMOFTHECENTURY won both times he ran over less than firm conditions, winning the Grade 3 Turf Monster at Parx over a yielding course and a $25K optional race over a track rated good, also at Parx. He can fire fresh for a trainer that has won with 5 of the last 15 he’s brought back from a layoff of 180 days or more. He looks like a serious player on a firm course but becomes the one to beat if there is some moisture in it.

MARCHMAN earned a career-best Beyer Speed Figure in the Grade 3 Shakertown at Keeneland April 12 and may not have reached his peak. The 4-year-old has two wins and a third sprinting on the lawn and one of his wins came over this course. He likes to be involved right from the start but it appears that he can stalk and if Albarado can get him to settle early he should be a big factor late.

After running in strictly routes the past two years POSITIVE SIDE may have found a new career as a turf sprinter. He edged MARCHMAN for second going 5 ½ furlongs in the $50K Colonel Power at the Fairgrounds in his initial start this year and then just missed to Marchman in the Grade 3 Shakertown. This might be a bit short for him but there should be an honest pace for him to work with and he’s a pretty sharp horse right now.

SUM OF THE PARTS has been installed as the 3-1 favorite but he looks vulnerable. He seems one dimensional and there is speed drawn inside of him so he could get hung out on the turn. He may have bounced when he finished fourth as the even-money favorite in the Colonel Power but Amoss has given him time to recover and it is easy to imagine him rebounding with a big effort here. Just not sure the shape of the race will work in his favor.

HAVELOCK could win this if he runs his best race and there should be an honest pace to set him up. He might want just a bit more distance, though. He has also got off to poor starts in his last two races and if the trend continues he’ll probably have too much to do.

ANCIL has speed, drew the rail, and at the least should make some noise early. He needs to prove himself at this level, though.

If it comes up wet we’re going to make a win bet on STORMOFTHE CENTURY who should be a decent price.

On a firm surface MARCHMAN looks like the one to beat so we’ll key him in the exotics using POSITIVE SIDE, STORMOFTHECENTURY and SUM OF THE PARTS as our main ingredients. HAVELOCK will be part of the bottom half of any exotics ticket

Spot Play

UNDRAFTED (#2, 8-1) cuts back to this five furlong affair after non-threatening effort on Poly at Keeneland; appears to be enough pace up front and 4yo gelding will try to run them down. - Chuck Kuehhas

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Race 7

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Race 8

Eight Belles Stakes by Byron King

FIFTYSHADESOFGOLD is perfectly suited for the seven-furlong Eight Belles, dropping in class after a second to Untapable in the Grade 2 Fair Grounds Oaks; won the Debutante on this track last year and is blessed with tactical speed. Also, this race drew enough other top-quality runners to make her an appealing price. OUR AMAZING ROSE is two-for-two, and though she didn't win as comfortably as many expected in a Mar. 17 return at Aqueduct, in the end she got the job done; likely fitter for her second race of the year; ready for the move into stakes company. SHE'S A TIGER is the likely favorite coming off a championship year as a juvenile filly, but she hasn't run since the Breeders' Cup in November when she drifted out badly and was DQed from first and placed second; perhaps vulnerable off the shelf. Baffert’s JO JO WARRIOR is also somewhat appealing, having a stalking style that should result in a good trip.

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Race 9

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Race 10

Alysheba Stakes by Michael Hammersly

My personal feeling was that WILL TAKE CHARGE’s number should have come down when he won the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap April 12, as his drifting out – more than once no less – surely interfered with runner-up Revolutionary.

But what that effort did show, yet again, is that trainer D. Wayne Lukas was right all along – this is one serious horse who surely now ranks among the top two or three handicap horses in the country. He’s just 1-for-3 this year but in the two losses, where by the way, he ran on well to be second in each, he was beaten by likely the OTHER two best handicap horses in the country who ran out of their mind. First he ran into the red-hot Lea in the Grade 1 Donn and then he ran into a rejuvenated back-on-his-game Game on Dude in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap. No shame in running second in those two outings.

From a Beyer standpoint his Oaklawn Handicap win did represent a slight step back. He’d Beyered 111 in the Donn and 114 in the Santa Anita Handicap before posting a 103 in the Oaklawn. However, his backed up some when he won the Grade 1 Clark here Nov. 29 (101) after his second in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic (112). After a brief freshening he came back smokin’ in the Donn.

And as you can see from that Clark effort he handles this place just fine. He seems to thrive on activity and after the Oaklawn just a few weeks ago he’s worked strongly since, reportedly held his weight and figures to fire again. Since his Grade 1 Belmont dud (ran 10th) he’s posted eight straight top-2 finishes, five of those in Grade 1s.

He also appears to a bit more versatile as he’s matured. Once a deep closer (and he’s still best when he sits and finishes) he now has the speed to sit closer. Remember in the Santa Anita Handicap then-rider Luis Saez tried to keep him within reach of Game on Dude, meaning wasn’t far off a fast 6 furlongs (1:09.20). In this respect he reminds me a bit of Alysheba – I’m not going to go so far and say he’ll be close to as good as that beast, but he’s trending the same way, from a bit of a disappointment as a deep closer, to maturing into a superb animal and showing more handiness as he develops. It all adds up to a lot of good things. Well, except for one thing: don’t expect to get rich if he wins as he figures to be a prohibitive favorite.

The good thing about exotics, though, is that sometimes you can take a horse who might be 3-5 or so and turn it into a 4-1 or 5-1 or even better exacta payoff.

The prime candidate to back him up in the exotics is NORMANDY INVASION, who looked winning his return at GP Feb. 22 by 7 3/4 lengths for a 100 Beyer. He then actually improved Beyerwise in the Grade 2 New Orleans at FG March 29 when he produced a 106 Beyer. Trouble is, he ran into Palace Malice who went through the roof that day and ‘INVASION finished second, though he was well clear of the rest (6 3/4 lengths). That was still a very nice run and he’s worked well since. He has the speed and versatility to be scary to WILL TAKE CHARGE and he may develop into an important horse this year.

A couple other exacta options are GOLDEN TICKET and APPEALING TALE. GOLDEN TICKET was a very sharp second to Palace Malice in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Handicap at a mile March 8, his first start in over three months. He then chased the pace in the Grade 1 Carter at AQU April 5 but that was at 7 furlongs and that trip may be a tad sharp for him, particularly as he was chasing a solid pace. He has versatility (has won on the lead, from just off the pace and from far off the pace) and seems best with waiting tactics. And surely this longer trip will suit him better.

APPEALING TALE has never beaten this kind but the SoCal raider has blossomed in recent months. He has considerable speed and if able to shake loose he could be, with this new-confidence and strength, hang around a lot longer than many think, and do so at a nice juicy price. Trainer Peter Miller is a sharp guy and the fact he opted to ship this guy here speaks of confidence. After all, he surely could have left him in SoCal and found a softer spot.

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Race 11

Kentucky Oaks by Marcus Hersh

Even favorite-adverse handicappers should think hard about trying to beat the chalk in the 2014 Kentucky Oaks.

I was covering the Rachel Alexandra Stakes in February and really liked Got Lucky to win. Then I went to the paddock before the race and saw UNTAPABLE for the first time since her disastrous Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies performance. I realized I’d made a big mistake.

Untapable was a standout on looks that day and has been a standout in her two races this year.

Fiftyshadesofgold (runs in Eight Belles on this card) and Oaks entrant Unbridled Forever both are talented fillies, and Untapable destroyed them in the FG Oaks. She did so while ridden out to victory in a very fast time, and has won both her races over the Churchill surface, too. Post 13 should land her the same kind of outside stalking she enjoyed in her two wins this year, the pace should be quick and spread the field enough for her not to get hung too wide around the first turn, and the stretch to nine furlongs should not trouble this filly. The belief is she wins by open lengths at miniscule odds.

The morning line has FASHION PLATE second choice at 6-1 and MY MISS SOPHIA third choice at 8-1, but that seems unlikely, and I’d guess My Miss Sophia will be a clear-cut second choice. No doubt, she has been an impressive winner of two straight, but her stakes-debut romp in the Gazelle was definitely aided by leading on a very slow pace. Her one-turn mile at Gulfstream suggests My Miss Sophia wants to race forwardly regardless of pace, and with SUGAR SHOCK and FASHION PLATE almost certainly committed to the front end, My Miss Sophia might get sucked into taxing fractions and fade out of the exacta.

UNBRIDLED FOREVER did not show her best in the FG Oaks, and the long wait for that race after her Silverbulletday victory in January might not have been ideal. She excelled over the local surface last fall, can sit a good trip here, and will offer some exotics value.

RIA ANTONIA is a big filly who wasn’t fit to show anything close to her best in the Rachel Alexandra, and who was victimized by the slow Santa Anita Oaks pace that got Fashion Plate home. The added distance probably will only help, and three sharp post-SA Oaks works presumably came with the blinkers in which she’ll race for the first time Friday.

ROSALIND has talent and ran well enough over SA dirt in the BC Juvenile Fillies, but probably is better on synthetics and turf. The Oaklawn 3-year-old filly races got decent numbers, but I’m against all the horses coming out of them.

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Race 12

Live Longshot

CRACK YOUR WHIP (#2, 10-1) rises off the layoff, and that's a good sign, especially considering the barn's solid overall record with Maiden Special Weight runners; solid works. -Kenny Peck

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