Churchill Downs: DRF Plus handicapping report for June 14, 2014

Race 1

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Race 2

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ATHENS (#5, 8-5): If you’re in the Lou. area, make sure to beat the Downs After Dark traffic into the track early, as this WinStar colt finally has found a light spot. Took part in a few rugged MSW’s in SoFla and Kee when unable to run like everyone knows he can; will be one of those “free space” we all like for the early horizontals and the key to a good start on Foster evening. – Marty McGee

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Race 3

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Race 4

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STREET SPICE (#1A, 6-1) failed to threaten in his first start off the short layoff but perhaps he simply didn't care for the synthetic strip at Arlington; back on dirt here, and his works leading up to that return try suggested he's better than he showed there. -Kenny Peck

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Race 5

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Race 6

Matt Winn Stakes by Mary Rampellini

TAPITURE seems to have a number of variables in his favor in the Grade 3, $100,000 Matt Winn, a mile and a sixteenth race for 3-year-olds that drew a handful of runners who spent time on this year’s Triple Crown trail. TAPITURE was one of them, advancing to the Kentucky Derby last out after winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs and the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. He is moving back to the distance over which he has fired his best races, and he could get an ideal trip tracking RISE UP, ALMOST FAMOUS and THE ADMIRAL. TAPITURE is also something of a fresh horse as this will be his first out in about six weeks and he won off the bench in the Southwest. His trainer, Steve Asmussen, has said he is a horse who puts a lot into his training, and the series of strong five-furlong drills he shows since the Kentucky Derby suggests he is poised to run his race Saturday.

RISE UP has a chance to shake free based on his wire-to-wire win in the Robert Hilton Memorial at Charles Town in his last start April 19, but with ALMOST FAMOUS and THE ADMIRAL situated to his outside, the task might be more difficult. RISE UP is, however, a fresh horse. He’s also coming off the best Beyer Speed Figure of his career, and note the race for which he earned the number marked his second career start in blinkers. RISE UP is appealing as one of the more accomplished members of the field as a four-time stakes winner whose biggest score has come at the Grade 3 level, in the $1 million Delta Downs Jackpot.

ALMOST FAMOUS defeated older horses last out when he wired a field of allowance runners at this mile and a sixteenth trip at Churchill Downs to improve his local record to 3-for-4. The main concern with ALMOST FAMOUS is the same one dogging RISE UP and THE ADMIRAL, who is a half-brother to Grade 1 winners Madcap Escapade ($1mm) and Dubai Escape ($427K). Will the trio make for a too-hot-to-maintain pace?

RANKHASPRIVILEGES and CONQUEST TITAN can take advantage if things fall apart on the front end, with CONQUEST TITAN a class play as he has been facing Grade 1 or Grade 2 rivals since January. ULANBATOR can be closer to the pace than he found himself last time, when racing over seven furlongs at Churchill.

TAPITURE gets the nod in the Matt Winn for his tactical speed, which should enable him to get first run at the leaders. In the stretch, suspect he might have to hold off the capable CONQUEST TITAN.

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Race 7

Fleuer de Lis Staks by Marcus Hersh

I’d love to encourage playing against ON FIRE BABY, the 8-5 favorite on the morning line who to these eyes looks more like a 6-5 shot. She still has not gotten all the way back to her peak during the spring of 2013, and at this stage of the game one wonders if she ever will, her record at this 9-furlong distance is 3-0-0-0, and her last-out win in the G1 La Troienne came at the expense of returning rival Molly Morgan, who is not a proven graded-stakes horse.

All that said, On Fire Baby easily seems the most likely winner of the $200K Fleur de Lis. Her loss to Close Hatches in the Apple Blossom two back might well have been a better race than her last-start win, which means On Fire Baby is as likely to take a little move forward here as to step back. Her work pattern – three solid-looking ones –since the La Troienne suggests a horse who came out of her last start well and is being trained aggressively into this spot. A pressing / stalking type, On Fire Baby has only Ondine as speed to her inside, and could fall into a lovely trip sitting just off a moderate tempo, if not setting the pace herself.

FIFTYSHADESOFHAY is 9-5 to On Fire Baby’s 8-5 and gets just one pound (122-121) from the handicapper, a slight spread considering On Fire Baby’s superior record. At 4 compared to On Fire Baby’s 5, Fiftyshadesofhay might be presumed to have more upside until one sees she’s already started 16 times. The filly seems fairly well exposed at this point. Her top performances have been losses, to Princess of Sylmar on the East Coast and to Beholder on the West Coast. She scored a nice win over long-layoff comebacker Grace Hall last out at Belmont in a one-turn mile, and has shown little sign of excelling at this nine-furlong distance. If On Fire Baby offers negative value as the favorite, Fiftyshadesofhay does the same as the second choice.

ONDINE changes barns, and trainer Brad Cox is a 33-percent winner with new arrivals. He also has no recent history of winning a graded stakes, and Ondine has wilted every time she’s tested by foes that are her equal or better – like these. Her best hope would seem to pop onto the lead from her rail draw and try to slow the pace.

FLASHY AMERICAN won the Sixty Sails at long-stretch Hawthorne last time, but that was as grinding a win (and in a blah field) as one will find, and she has still not found her best form from last year. At 8-1 she might be worth a look; at the 7/2 morning-line odds, not so much.

MOLLY MORGAN and FRIVOLOUS are stabs and nothing more.

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Race 8

Stephen Foster Stakes by Marcus Hersh

Interesting edition of the $500,000 Stephen Foster Handicap. I suspect the race will be bet with a big 2 –WILL TAKE CHARGE and REVOLUTIONARY – DEPARTING a defined third choice, and then GOLDEN TICKET, MOONSHINE MULLEN, and LONG RIVER all vying for fourth choice. It will be surprising, however, if Will Take Charge goes off nearly as high as his 5/2 morning line, and the expectation is he’s mildly favored over Revolutionary.

Will Take Charge went off at 3/5 in the Alysheba but seemed like an obvious bounce candidate making his fourth start in three months, a schedule that included ships to Florida for a huge effort in the Donn, and to California for an excellent try against an in-form Game On Dude in the Santa Anita Handicap. Will Take Charge ran flat as a pancake in the Alysheba, but now has had six weeks to bounce back, and from the look of his post-Alysheba work pattern, that has happened. His “A” race – to date, at least – is simply better than anything anyone else in this field can muster , and if bettors really hold the last-start flop against him to the extent the line expresses, Will Take Charge would be fair-priced.

Revolutionary might or might not be a worthy rival, and is likely to be overplayed based on connections and, more so, his Pimlico Special last month. The public loves a dramatic last-to-first victory, and the taxing early and middle pace in the Pimlico Special made Revolutionary’s position at the tail of the field an asset, not an impediment. He won by a neck over Foster entrant Prayer for Relief, a hard-knocking millionaire, but nevertheless a 6-year-old that never has approached being a legitimate Grade 1 horse. Does Revolutionary have more to give in just his third start at 4? Perhaps, and he gets 5 pounds from Will Take Charge from the handicapper. I certainly would demand more value than the morning-line price affords.

Departing is a talented gelding, and I’m curious to see how he fares in the Foster, but to me he is a poor straight bet at odds as low as the 9/2 morning line. The good he did last year at 3 had as much to do with sharp management as standout performances, and quick, name the best horse behind Departing in any of his 2013 wins.

Mylute is not without hope in his third start after a layoff, and though his second race back in the Alysheba was disappointing, it’s too soon to say for certain he hasn’t progressed from 3 to 4. But I think the value in the race is Golden Ticket and Long River, though I prefer the former. Golden Ticket was tagged as a hanger when he failed to push past Moonshine Mullen in the Alysheba, but let’s not get too hung up on the psychology. This horse was second by a head to the mighty Palace Malice in the Gulfstream Park Handicap, second to the excellent Goldencents last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and second to BC Classic winner Fort Larned in the 2013 Foster. A win might be too much to ask, but at twice the price, say, of Departing, he would be a better key horse in vertical exotics.

Long River has that beautiful pedigree for 9-10 furlongs on dirt, and he can be forgiven the step back over the Charles Town bull ring when last seen. Sharp works and the feel of a live McLaughlin shipper.

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Race 9

Regret Stakes by Marty McGee

They don’t get a whole lot more fun than this renewal of the G3 Regret, a two-turf turf race that drew a remarkably well-matched field of 10 3yo turf fillies. There’s a 7-2 M/L fave in A Little Bit Sassy (#4), which says plenty by itself, doesn’t it? As for the 2nd choice, Istanford (#7), she’s a little too obvious after defeating a weak field of boys in the Arlington Classic, and she’ll be one we discard for purposes of approaching this particular race.

There are five 6-1 shots to choose from, and thinking both Tepin (#2) and Aurelia’s Belle (#6) fit a nice bill. Both have turf pedigrees and big potential after running well on other surfaces, and both have turf-savvy trainers in Casse and Catalano, respectively.

The play: rely on both Tepin and Aurelia’s Belle in vertical plays, i.e., tri’s and supers, by tying them into a handful of other price fillies, namely V V Goodnight (#3), A Little Bit Sassy (#4), Personal Diary (#5), and Share the Sugar (#6). Shake ‘em, bake ‘em, and try to get a little lucky.

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AURELIA’S BELLE (#6, 6-1): In this absurdly well-matched renewal of the G3 Regret, there are five 6-1 shots on the M/L, some with far better chances than others. This classy filly has always been headed for the turf in CatMan’s mind, and tonight she gets Johnny V. while getting what might wind up being her best surface. Perhaps unlikely to get this lofty kind of price again soon on her. – Marty McGee

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Race 10

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Race 11

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