Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for Thursday, October 31

Race 1

Gettem Up Girl

She did not get the break from the rail in a large field when sprinting last out, and the development no doubt worked against her; she also was making a rare start over a synthetic surface, and note her last two wins on form came on the main track at Ind; has reason to fire an improved race, and can be closer to the pace than some of these.

Maybelle Slew

She was third at this distance at CD in her most recent start, and for the effort earned what ranks as this field's best last-race Beyer Figure; note the race has become a key one, with the winner returning in her next start to take a $10K claimer at Kee with a Beyer Figure of 77, and the fourth-place finisher, Wildie, a $10K claimer at Ind, with a Beyer of 69; steps up notch in class off the claim, but is a strong fit with these; choice.

Another Trick

She steps up a notch in class following a clear win over the $5K crowd at Churchill, and note the runner-up from the race returned to score and also turns up here; as for this one, she showed improved speed in her last race, one that featured more moderate fractions than her recent races; there does not appear to be an abundance of pace in here and looking for her to be prominent, either showing the way or perhaps tracking the pair to her inside, or Abelha Maestra.

Miss Ziggy

She was a last-to-first winner over the $6K crowd last out at Ind, one start removed from a runner-up finish to Another Trick at CD; is back racing over the local oval, and through the years 16-time winner has compiled a nice record on main track at CD; honest, honest mare leads these in earnings, and deserves her propers; rarely fails to hit the board.

Platinum Blue

She's back in the claiming ranks after a starter allowance appearance at Kee; she's also back on dirt and note the race last time was the first time she'd ever run on a synthetic track; suspect she'll fire an improved race for the surface switch; also like that she's seen steeper in the past.

Abelha Maestra

A winner of two of her last four starts, her most recent race seems like a toss out; it came against starter foes and it was her first over a synthetic surface; is now back on the CD main track, where she is a winner; she's also appealing for the fact that she has more natural speed than most of these; could show the way or track runner to her inside, Another Trick.

Bold Tap

She returns to the claiming ranks for the first time in a while, a she's been facing starter allowance foes in recent times; like that she's an 11-time winner and that she has some experience on the main track at CD; she also seems like one who can be closer to the pace than she's been racing of late.

Neverrguwithrichie

She's had the bulk of her success over synthetic and turf surfaces, but she is a winner on dirt and she has class appeal as one who faced higher-priced rivals last time, finishing in front of fellow rival Gettem Up Girl; shortens up some in distance and looking for her to be strong through the stretch; leading contender.

Race 4

Honey Lake

Smart recent 2nds in spots similar to this stamp her the one to beat; handled this distance just fine at KEE a few weeks ago, and while she ws no match for the big winner she still finished well clear of the others; worked nicely since to indicate she's doing well.

Kari Azaria

Have to like the way she developed at IND this spring/summer, including a win on turf there last time out (Sept. 4); that being said, that win came over restricted claimers going just 7 1/2fs so today she's well up in class and tacking on another 4 1/2fs; has to ship for the privilege, too; at least Reed feels good enough about her that after twice risking her for a tag recently he takes no such risk with her today...though again, that means facing tougher.

Kazoom

Tough to be too enthused; form has fallen off of late; beat restricted claimers on turf at IND but not only were those much lesser but that was going just a mile; tried this trip last time (for the 2nd time) but was no factor, finishing well behind a few of today's rivals.

Seamstress

Didn't run badly to be 4th on turf at KD Sept. 25 but remember, not only did that come vs. lesser ($12,500 claimers) but was at a distance much shorter than she sees today; so, she's not only well up in class but moves into uncharted waters in terms of the distance so the hurdles are not insignificant.

Why Not More

3rd in a race like this at KEE Oct. 13, though remember she was fairly well beaten (7 lengths) and was 3 3/4 lengths behind today's foe Honey Lake; the good news, though, is that ws her first start in almost 7 months so she can improve, and it also showed she's not averse to this trip; must make up some ground on 'Lake but that isn't out of reach.

Tree Hugger

0 for 14 on turf, and you have to go back to 2011 to find her only win; been on a steady diet of turf distance events and has shown glimpses at times that she can play this game well; that being said, her last 2 weren't any great shakes and she was beaten fairly easily by today's foe Honey Lake; likely needs to run a race she hasn't run yet if she's to win this.

Lemon Chiller

Just failed to catch 'Azaria going shorter on turf vs. $25K N2L foes at IND Sept. 4, and then rallied gamely to beat that caliber there Sept. 18, a run which looks even better when you note 2 she beat that day came right back to win; even so, this spot is surely tougher not only in terms of the class level but this new longer trip throws an entirely new and tough dimension into it as well.

Lisvernane

Toss that Sept. 25 debacle at BEL (saddle slipped) and things don't look nearly as dire; after all, her only dull races came after 2 1/2 years on the bench and on yielding turf; comes out of a good race at BEL and surely with that pedigree this longer trip figures within her reach, though you're never quite sure about that until they actually do it.

Race 5

Jumping Justice

All 3 wins vs. IND-breds but has been a new runner since blinkers were added 4 races ago; she was 1-for-11 before the hood was attached; the added half furlong here and ground-saving post all help the cause for the 1st-CD attempt; the trainer hits with only 5% repeat winners since 2012.

Lady Lynum

More than 7 months away since rallying last-to-1st over a wet-main track at longer; she probably needs a lot more distance to see her best form; the workout for this was not inspiring; the 2-back show runner posted a 54 Beyer speed figure in her next-out TP-5K-claiming win.

Sharp Finnish

Projects to race on or near the lead in an event lacking significant gate speed; posted a field-best Beyer at 1F longer than this on turf; last victory was at much longer on wet grass; her best dirt speed figure was over a wet-main track.

Ouiser

1st race off the claim was a career-low Beyer 1st turf; clearly if can run back to the June-exacta finish on fast-CD dirt would be a major-exotics player here; lone dirt win was on a wet-main track and off going would move her up; 35%-winning fresh trainer since 2012 adds to the appeal for a wakeup call.

Savannah's Glory

Defeated 1 runner combined in last 2 dirt starts including a dull-return race on CD dirt chasing the runner-up finisher who Beyered 56 in a next-out IND-6K-claiming win; the 2-back show runner won next out in an ELP-5K claimer with a 52 speed figure.

Borrowed Money

Another improved Beyer speed figure for the barn who is now 4-2-1-0 with her; rallied well however she has not fired best on CD dirt passing some runners 2 back chasing the show runner who Beyered 53 in a next-out IND-10K-claiming win.

Milhojas

Gets her shortest-distance test since June today; sharp-August Mile win but has been far off her best game since then; blinkers on in July helped the cause noting her best Beyer of career was on turf; 1st-CD main track test stepping up in price off a loss is not a good-win angle.

Terzetto

Enters way off best form with 6 straight off-the-board finishes and last 4 being double-digit length losses; the 2-back runner-up and show finishers Beyered 51-44 in next-out RD-$7,500-claiming and BEU-5K-claiming wins; would be a shocker.

Plain and Simple

Projects to race on or near the lead; removes blinkers off the long layoff but the good news is she does not encouner rivals with a lot of other gate speed so figures to make an early impact off the dueled-into-defeat line for last; CD-dirt record is poor so will be taking a wait and see approach.

Sharp N Pretty

The 4th and 10th-place finishers from last Beyered 65-53 in next-out FP-TP-5K-claiming wins; 1st race of 2013 noting her CD-2011 wet-track diploma earner then posted a career-best speed figure on a fast-CD dirt oval; last 3 dirt sprints were all good races; would be a big factor here if ready.

Race 6

Don't Tell Me No

Made a fair middle move before fading in her first run; her sire won multiple G1s and 2.05 million while the dam scored in 2 of 6 attempts earning 13K; winning siblings include 80K earner Moon Nistle.

K B Biorhythms

Raced evenly first time out at Arlington; her sire won 424K including G1 success; the dam won 3 of 9 and 42K; among the winning siblings is 71K earner Wildcat Appeal; breezed at steady intervals this month.

Perfect Setting

Quit early in both attempts but tries the claiming world for the first time; the grey's sire won a G2 and 583K while the dam was solid indeed, a winner of 10 of 50 and 495K; sib to 93K earner I Am Miss Brown.

Brown Baggin It

Newcomer hails from Derby winner Big Brown who amassed 3.61 million (his progeny have scored in 12 of 65 debuts); the dam won 2 of 12 and 63K; among the winning siblings is 166K earner Corey County.

Seven Point Six

No factor in her Keeneland maiden voyage but she returns with Lasix addition; her sire won a G2 and 254K; the dam won 1 of 5 tries and 21K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate; latest a.m. move was average.

Hootie Pie

Did not recover from a slow break in her first outing; her sire won multiple G2s and 654K; the dam involved was unraced and this is her sole foal to compete; shows outstanding breeding for an off-track.

Shoot the Drone

Respectable first effort when finishing midpack on a wide path; her sire won a couple of G2s and 491K; the dam won 2 of 10 and 42K; sib to 11K earner Eugene'sexpress; this trainer has fared well with second-time starters.

Athenian Beauty

Adds blinkers following debut where she got into gear too late; her sire won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and 1.26 million overall; the dam won 10 of 56 and 438K; winning siblings include 195K earner Ominous.

Falcon Harbor

Although off the board a month in each start, she has shown better prompting speed than most of this crew; races for a tag for the first time and reverts to original rider Court; unlucky lass should be an early factor at the very least.

Secret Garden

Vast improvement in that second attempt; her sire won multiple G3s and just over a million dollars in career earnings; the dam went 8 for 47 earning 141K; sib to 28K earner Roaring Off.

Maybe Lily

Makes only her second main track outing and did turn in a fair bid when breaking from the extreme outside 19 days ago; may be reserved further off the pacesetters today and land a share at generous odds.

Wife in the Wind

Looks like one of the main speeds even from this outpost; her sire won a G1 and 419K; the dam never raced and this is her only foal to start; dangerous if able to clear Falcon Harbor in the opening stages.

Race 7

Larissa's Love

With three wins on the lawn and none on dirt it looks like she really wants to run on the turf; she ran here twice on the main train going this distance and both time she really wasn't much of a factor; other speed in the field makes her task difficult; looking elsewhere.

Rowdy Miss

This will be the third start of her current form cycle but she is going to need to improve to contend here; she earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure in her debut at Hawthorne but hasn't made it into the 60's since; she won't mind the added distance but she's still eligible for a nonwiners of two and most of the ones she's facing are multiple winners; prefer others.

Distinct Affair

She is going to appreciate the substantially easier company with the drop into a $20K claimer restricted to 3-year-old fillies after a dull effort in a first-level allowance race for fillies and mares; she did go pretty wide around the turn, though, and her previous race puts her in the mix; the past five years Tomlinson has a 10% strike rate with horses going from allowance to claiming; contender.

Moneygrabber

Looks likes she has improved since she finished third in a key race here in May; the winner hasn't lost since and recently won a $32K optional race at Monmouth with a 95 Beyer; this gal is coming off two solid wins in conditional claiming races at Indiana and she earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure in her latest so she might just be reaching her peak; playable.

Georgette Fortune

Lightly raced filly won her first two in claiming races and then ran into some tough ones when she ran in a $25K optional claimer for fillies and mares in her latest at Indiana; she is going to appreciate the easier company here and like the fact that she easily won a one-turn mile in her previous start here; contender.

Marlene's Love

The 59 Beyer Speed Figure she earned in her latest win over a weak group of $10K n/w/2 at Indiana equaled her career best and she'll need to improve on that to contend here; first time long and she is by a sire that was strictly a sprinter; dam only won going short but she has produced a route winner; looking in other directions.

Tricolette

Anything coming out of this barn deserves respect and the past five years Amoss has a 29% strike rate with the blinkers coming off; horse that finished second in her race at Kentucky Downs won at this level in her next start at Kee; her lone win came going this distance so she won't mind the added distance following an even race going 7 furlongs; she also ran okay in her three starts here last year; consider for the exotics.

Sense of a Woman

Her last two races on the main track at Belmont point to her as the winner; the only concern is both times she was running over a wet track; easy to forgive her for not being able to keep up in a key race won by Grade 3 placed Speedinthruthecity the last time she was here; first time for Maker is usually a good thing as well; the pick.

Bella Figlia

That was a nice effort coming off a two-month layoff and since 2009 Habeeb has a 20% strike rate with horses making their second start following a layoff; she flopped as the chalk the only time she ran over this surface but she's had two solid races since and her only older sib is a multiple route winner so she should get the distance; she has good speed and could be dangerous from either on the lead or stalking speet that probably won't last; contender.

Fib

Back with 3-year-olds only following a solid effort against oler mares in an $18K claimer at Indiana; the horse that finished second earned a 72 Beyer for her win in a $7.5 claimer in her previous start here; this gal likes to win races and she has an excellent record at the distance; don't sell short.

Race 8

Jannes Paul

Not wild about what she showed us in her career debut but she's by a top turf sire and her dam was a stakes winner while winning 3 of 16 turf starts for 161k; this miss is a 1/2 to Tiz Teresa (1-6, 78k over turf).

U S Mint

Sire is 0-for-20 with his first-time starters and he's 1-for-14 (7%) with his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this filly is a 1/2 to Rosie's Ransom (3-12, 49k over turf); tough to give this one the nod over the other firsters in here.

Malala's Diary

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his first-time starters and with approximately 18% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from seven starts; this miss is a 1/2 to Sky Lover (2-7, 45k over turf); this barn can have one ready to go long over turf at first asking and Lebron does get live calls from this outfit.

Wicked Temper

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam was a G2 winner racing overseas while winning 1 of 7 starts for 62k; 315k purchase showed a little something in her career debut and she might be looking forward to the move to turf.

Code Name Ava

She enters this race off of an encouraging career debut and she shows up for a barn that can have one tighter at second asking; this filly is a 1/2 to stakes placed Safe Crossing (4-12, 165k over turf); not going to argue with anyone for looking favorably in this direction.

Freethinker

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and minor stakes placed dam won 3 of 16 turf starts for 83k; this filly is a 1/2 to Virtual Image (1-7, 36k over turf); her pedigree is all distance and it looks like she's been training well in preparation for her career debut.

Ziptomylu

Half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Kathmanblu (3-11, 323k over turf) took a step in the right direction at second asking and it's worth noting the success that this outfit has when sending them out with Lasix for the first time.

Opposite Day

Sire wins with approximately 17% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 17 starts for 37k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 16k; this is a capable win-early barn and they saw fit to try her in a minor stakes at first asking.

Any Day Now

When considering the reputation this barn has with first-time starters, the 6-1 price at first asking was significant backing, and not going to be at all suprised if this 120k purchase is ready for better the second time around.

Daddy's Memory

She's run well enough in her first two starts to have a competitive look in this spot, and that includes a start routing over turf at second asking; this is a strong win-early barn and Mena is a go-to rider for them.

One Hot Romance

She needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race to draw in, and based on what she's done in her first two starts, it's tough to envision her as being anything more than a possible early pace player.

Grand Elmendorf

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and multiple G1 winning dam won 9 of 33 starts for $1.2 million, including 0-for-3 over turf; firster has some pedigree appeal and a couple of her workouts look okay.

Babe's Ruler

She has the look of a filly who can take a step forward in her second career start and she's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 7 of 21 starts for 457k, including 2 of 11 turf starts for 127k; this filly is a 1/2 to stakes placed Spiteful Gypsy (3-12, 131k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 74k).

Blush Again

Sire wins with approximately 17% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and dam won 3 of 15 starts for 69k, including 1 of 6 turf starts for 25k; this filly is a full to stakes winner William's Kitten (2-28, 210k, including 1 of 7 turf starts for 26k) and G3 winner Derby Kitten (5-31, 427k, including 3 of 19 turf starts for 188k).

Race 9

Bourbon Courage

Holds an ample class edge here; after all, he's spent the last year or so facing some of the game's best; these aren't patsies by any means but they're not Graydar or Shackleford or Take Charge Indy; main issue is whether he's ready to fire the necessary bullet after being gone 8 months; has fired big before off the bench, but those were much shorter layoffs; works add to optimism, though.

Central Banker

He's G1 SP (3rd in the King's Bishop) so he's got some quality; that came going 7fs so this trip should be no problem; what may be a problem is he just got beat 3 lengths by today's foe Bull Dozer, though that did come on synthetic whereas we're playing on dirt today, and the only other time this guy played on this dirt the result was a 5-length romp.

Moe Man

Coupled with Nicklaus Way; big SW at CBY Aug. 16 earned him a shot at the G3 Ack Ack here Sept. 7; OK, so those waters proved far too deep; trouble is, this spot isn't that much easier to be sure; does have speed and don't let his local mark of 1 for 13 fool you - he's run some nice races here (6 2nds).

Nicklaus Way

Coupled with Moe Man; loomed a threat turning for home in the G3 Cornhusker at PRM June 29 but flattened out to be a well-beaten 4th (8 3/4 lengths); heat was flattered, though, as the 3 who beat him that day all came right back to win; trouble is, this guy hasn't been seen since so we're talking layoff (4 months); has run well here but even if he comes back at his best is that enough to topple these tough dudes, hmmmm?

Bull Dozer

Continues his fine form; hey, you don't win 13 times by accident so this guy is a pro; just won gamely at this type of trip at KEE but note 9 of his 13 wins have come on dirt so this footing is right up his alley; just 10 months ago he was a respectable 4th in a G3 at GP so he's got some quality and while Calhoun plunked down $62,500 to claim him way back on May 4 note that while he offers him for a tag today it's still a higher tag.

Zero X Zero

Won 3 of his last 4 so he comes here on top of his game; trouble is, the water is much, much deeper today; at least one of those wins came here (Sept. 15) at this trip but even so the Beyer boys weren't left in awe by the performance (64); likely needs big improvement to be a factor but at least he's in the best form of his life so maybe he's ready for another big lead forward.

Shared Property

Solid fit; knocked heads with some toughies and he's proven on dirt; 4th but not far at all behind today's foe Bull Dozer (2nd) here Sept. 6; dueled that day and that cost him and the good news is he's shown before he can sit and finish so he's not some one-dimensional speedball.

Our Double Play

Seemed to find himself in the spring when a romping winner here (at this trip) and then an easy winner of a stakes at PRM; then came a decent run when 4th in the G3 Iowa Derby, but then came 3 months off and a dull return at CT Sept 21; maybe it was the layoff, maybe it was the slop - the good news is there's no layoff aspect to today's run; however, h'ed run beig before off the bench, and he'd shown before he likes the wet going so it makes you wonder - did whatever sent him away for those 3 months take some of the starch out of him, hmmmm?

Race 10

Paciencia Y Fe

Runner up in his last 2 moves to the fence for his return to the scene of his troubled sprint debut; he's the field's highest last out Beyer earner by a significant margin and he figures to be able to find a decent spot down inside early with the move to the fence; they'll have him to beat.

Counselor Ron

Offered little late when stretched out on the drop to this level second back from the layoff; gelding has yet to hit the board or run a number that fits in this spot; have to pass on him today.

The Teuff Way

Get Lasix for the initial time after beating a total of 2 runners home in his 3 starts; maybe the medication helps get him going a bit but off what he's shown of late it's tough to make a case for this colt having a say in the outcome.

G. Harrison

Took money first out at Indiana Downs but had some trouble from the fence in that sprint try and didn't do much running thereafter; gelding will step up in price for his local debut while dumping the shades and moving further out in the track; maybe he's better with experience behind him, but he's still got some improving to do to step with some of these.

Southern Match

Beaten last out chalk sharpened his speed a bit sprinting and now he'll try routing for the initial time on the main track; nice to see Rosie stick with him and he did breeze ok last week for a solid stretchout barn, but this sophomore really hasn't done very much of yet.

Professor Trek

He's another who hasn't done much at all yet, but he'll drop in for his lowest price yet and he'll try dirt for the initial time; maybe that combination helps him show more but it's tough to just overlook the fact this this outfit hasn't won a race all year.

Mr Supernova

Took a big step forward when holding second against cheaper first time off this outfit's claim at Indiana Downs; speed he showed in that one really came out of nowhere but maybe it's a sign that move improvement is forthcoming and that can't hurt in this weak gathering; contender.

Expensive Candy

Came up empty at Keeneland after being beaten less than 5 lengths at the level here last month; gelding may appreciate the return to dirt but his running style would certainly appreciate some pace in front of him; maybe for a share.

Perfect Prince

Fresh colt drops in price while making his local debut for a barn that boasts a recent winner on the surface switch; his effort 2 back on the Indiana Downs dirt was solid and maybe the return to the main track helps him bounce back in here; consider.

Ham I Am

He's lost 26 times already and wasn't close in either of his local spins; gelding has yet to earn a number that would put him in the picture here and his last doesn't suggest that a big move forward is in the cards; have to pass on this longshot.

Collins

Goes first time for an outfit that boasts plenty of recent luck with this type right back; runner up in his last 2 with cheaper exits a heat in which he split next out winners and though his numbers may look a little light he does enter this on the Beyer upswing; tough draw but he's worth a look.

Optionality

He's been handled rather easily in his last few including his most recent local spin on the drop to this level; gelding has shown a little bit of early foot of late and maybe that helps him secure a decent spot early from this outside draw; nice to see a top pilot stick with him; he's had his chances, but can't be overlooked.