Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for Thursday, November 7

Race 1

Touched the Clouds

He steps up in class off the claim and is also making a distance move as he will be shortening up from a mile and an eighth to a mile and a sixteenth; will add blinkers and it's been a good while since he has raced in the equipment; a concern is that he might not get the pace setup he needs as there does not appear to be a good deal of speed in this spot; runner who has seen steeper in the past looks like a leading contender, nonetheless.

Savage Vow

He's stepping up in class, but he lands in a field that does not appear to have much speed and on the move from a one-turn mile to a mile and a sixteenth, he could find himself in a prominent position, perhaps with a tactical edge if he gets the jump on Barrio Baby; could share.

Flatter Creek

Ind invader turned things around last out when third at 83-1 in a $10K claiming route; he had struggled for a handful of starts leading up to that race; out to prove last was no fluke, he might get a favorable stalking trip behind Savage Vow and Barrio Baby.

C for Chant

He's a winner on turf and on a synthetic surface and this afternoon continues his quest for a win on dirt; the move back to two turns would seem to suit runner whose best efforts of late have come at such a configuration; he also might be sitting on a peak effort in his third out since February.

Yankee Scholar

He's been a consistent sort as a rule and that makes him interesting despite the step up in claiming price; the concern is that he might not get the pace setup he needs as there does not appear to be much speed in this spot; like several others, he is one who can share.

Destrehan

Since clearing his N2L condition in August, he's fired respectable races against more experienced foes; might fight a pace scenario here, though, as there does not appear to be the kind of speed in this race that would set the plate for his late run; looking for him to at least share.

Gold Megillah

He was a sharp winner on turf last out at KD and now returns to the main track at CD, where he is a winner; a concern is whether he will get the pace he needs to fuel his run as there does not appear to be much speed in this race; at the same time, he could be closer to the action here as he picks up more ground and has seen steeper rivals in the past; win candidate.

Barrio Baby

He must overcome the widest post in this spot, but he is one who can be closer to the pace than most of these and suspect he could get an ideal tracking trip behind Savage Vow; also like that he owns what ranks as this field's best last-race dirt Beyer Figure; win candidate.

Race 2

Night Vision

Moves from the outside slot to the fence fo his second crack back from the break; 6 year old ran big to beat cheaper at the trip the last time he tried the local main track and he's shown he can sit close to the top early which can't hurt in a field that doesn't look to contain a whole bunch of lick; consider.

Reason to Be Proud

Adds the hood for the drop off this brief freshening; gelding hasn't been a threat since taken by this barn in the spring so he's got something to prove; maybe the class relief and new equipment help get him going, but we'll just watch him in here.

He's So Proud

He's another who hasn't been close to the winner in a while and he backed out of it after setting a quick clip at this trip and level 2 starts back; maybe he's closer to the top here, but in his current form certainly has a lot to prove; siding with others.

Slick Pardoned Me

Turns back to sprint off the freshening after a solid placing on the rise back up to this level; guy who beat him in that one returns in this spot as well and this gelding has yet to find the winner's circle in 11 spins over the local main track; have to limit his use to underneath in exotics.

Debit Card

Enters this fresh while stepping up for his first start off this sharp outfit's buy; gelding offered some solid kick while getting beaten just a length in his local return at the trip; he hasn't won in a while, but off his last he's worth a look today.

Tycoon

Scored when dropped to this level first time off the barn's claim in his return from 3 months on the shelf and now he'll turn back to sprint; 2 time local winner isn't much of a sprinter, but he does have the early lick to stay with these from the bell and he should have a little extra to offer late; one to beat.

Proceed Bee

First part of the coupling turns back to sprint on the surface switch for a barn that moves them successfully back to dirt at a big clip; he's another who doesn't have much recent one turn experience and he's preferred to take back and make a run of late which means he could find himself even further out of this sprint heat than usual; maybe for a share with his late kick.

Poised to a Tee

Gelding was in over his head while making his local debut 2 starts back but he bounced back from the poor try to defeat claimers on the cut back at Indiana Downs; he got some pace in front of him in that one and would appreciate help up top in this one as well, but if he gets it the added panel should play to his favor.

Adulare

Gelding failed to get involved in the outcome when stepped up to face better off the barn's claim at Keeneland; maybe he's better with the return to dirt at the level of the outfit's buy and though he hasn't been very good of late the price should be nice.

Zoebear

Barn's other half starts from the outside slot while making his local return; outfit hits at a nice clip with its runners turning back to sprint and this guy beat much better at one turn over synthetic footing at Arlington 3 starts back; class relief looks to make him a big threat at this trip; contender.

Race 3

Rope Dancer

Both of his wins came over Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs and he just hasn't shown much in any of his four of his starts here; he never really got involved in his latest and the horse that won the race is in this field; he would need to improve dramatically to make much of an impact here.

Fizzano

5-year-old is coming off two solid races at Keeneland including a win at this level and distance Oct. 6 and he had to steady a couple of times when he was favored in a $16K claimer in his latest; 0/2 on dirt but both times it came up wet and his only older sib is a multiple winner on dirt so we'll assume he'll handle the surface switch; barn is cold at the moment but we all know that is going to change; the pick.

Magical Moment

Not a bad effort behind Fizzano two back and he looked like he might make some noise on the turn in his latest but flattened out in the stretch; his only win in 13 starts this year came over a wet track at Beulah so his chances would improve if the track is off; otherwise, we're looking in other directions.

Gallant Pleasure

He couldn't catch the lone speed when he lost as the chalk in his latest at Indiana Downs but he had some trouble going into the first turn and then had to go five-wide when he made his late move on the second turn; it was a pretty good effort and he has performed well here in the past; live barn adds to his appeal; contender.

Ellio

His last two wins came going a mile and a half and two miles so it seems like he wants more distance; he wasn't much of a factor in the same race Fizzano exits but it was his first try on Poly; the horse that won his race in his previous start won his next two including a $16K starter race with an 82 Beyer here Nov. 1.; consider for the exotics.

El Sombre

He is coming off a solid effort in a third-level allowance race at Mountaineer but it was on turf and he hasn't won in six tries on dirt; he didn't pick up his feet the only time he ran here in a conditional claimer and he's also never won going longer than 7 1/2 furlongs so this might be beyond his reach; can see him sticking around long enough to pick up a slice but that's about it.

Turbalo

Like the way he has improved lately and he will be going for his third straight win over this track; he is stepping into open company for the first time but he is a lightly raced 4-year-old who seems to be coming into his own and he might be good enough to stand the jump; the past five years Salazar has a 17% strike rate with horses returning between 31-60 days; contender.

Haunted

He looked good winning a conditional claimer the last time he was here in June but he was claimed out of the race and he didn't run a jump in his next two on turf and Poly; we know he likes it here so maybe the surface switch will help get him back on track; nonetheless, it is hard to support him off what he has shown in his last two starts.

Gambling Don

He certainly won't mind it if comes up wet but not sure about his chances if the track is fast; he chased an honest pace before fading in the same race Gallant Pleasure exits and there is other potential speed drawn inside of him; excluding his easy win in the slop two back he just hasn't fired since his win at Mountaineer in March and he hasn't hit the board in 4 tries over this track; prefer others.

Race 4

Lily the Pink

Tough race; mare has done some good work on the sod and while only 5th in an N3X at KEE last month remember she was away poorly, was behind a lot of horses in a bunched-up field but kept to her task well; could certainly bounce back with a better effort but it wil take her 'A' game to be a player here.

Dame Marie

4th in her last 2, finishing behind a couple of today's rivals in those 2 outings; lack of speed pretty much alwasy means she's got some work to do turning for home and when you're giving this caliber of runner a headstart and first run, well, it's no easy feat to go get them; last win did come on this course when she also earned a career-top Beyer (90), the type of fig that would make her a factor; nice work here Nov. 2 to encourage.

Twist of Silver

May have turned the corner; form was a bit dicey this spring/summer but she perked up at AP when 2nd Aug. 29 and then a winner there Sept. 22, followed by a SW in a race washed off the turf at HAW Oct. 5; that's all well and good but this is a tougher spot, but at least she's sharp and has won here.

New Wave

No factor in a turf sprint stkaes at KD Sept. 7 but sprinting isn't really her forte anyway; freshened again since, moves to a longer trip and to a course over which she's proven (won here a year ago); speed can haver her in prominent from the start.

Bodacious Barb

After the spring vacation she's come back a better mare; sure, 4 of her 5 starts since came on synthetic (3) and dirt (1) but her last start, on turf in a spot like this at KEE Oct. 11, was very smart; she had a brutal post (No. 10) but her speed had her in it from the start and she stayed there all the way around; she's by no means a one-dimensional speedball, though, as other outings show she can sit and finish.

Goldway

Very nice turf stakes 2nd at HAW Oct. 26; that continues some good form as she romped on AP's Pollytrack Sept. 12 and then just missed in a stakes washed off the turf onto a sloppy track at HAW Oct. 5; certainly proven on turf and at this trip, though it is her first local start; Rosemary knows her well and this gal's versatility gives her rider options, too.

Poetic Kid

Appears to have turned the corner; was no match for today's foe Lily the Pink at AP July 13 when 7th to that gal but she's been a different filly since; she's won 3 straight, the first 2 at AP but then most impressively on THIS course Sept. 27; seems to have a new lease on life and while it's surely a tougher spot the way she drew off Sept. 27 hints she's ready for this challenge.

Go Go Lolo

MTO has yet to run on a wet track but is bred all over for it; she'd likely love to get a crack at a bunch of turf horses playing her game; comes here very sharp, too, having won 3 straight at IND; Wiggins not only saw fit to claim her for $25K out of her last win Oct. 18 but he more than TRIPLES her in value for this, a great sign.

Race 5

Golden B. J.

Although yet to finish in the money, she finally draws inside and is making only her second start for these connections; has been caught extra-wide in the last pair and perhaps this unlucky filly can work out an ideal trip and land a minor share.

Already Red

Newcomer was sired by G2 winner Greeley's Galaxy who banked 446K and whose offspring have won 3 of 61 debuts; the dam won 1 of 21 and 27K; among the winning siblings is 346K earner Karakorum Splendor.

Lady At Heart

Did not get involved first time out but that was more than a year ago; her sire won multiple G1s and 1.39 million; the mom won 1 of 11 and 24K; winning siblings include 276K earner W.W.'s Lady's Man.

Southern Seed

Adds blinkers after showing a bit more prompting speed last month when dropping way down to this level; her sire won multiple G1s and 1.84 million; the dam scored in 5 of 26 appearances earning 186K; sib to 422K earner Agastache.

Olivia B

Flashed decent early foot in her maiden voyage; her sire won 360K including a G2 tally; the dam was without victory in 4 attempts; among the winning siblings is 30K earner Natty Bob; cuts back a bit in distance and can last much longer here.

Change Me Up

Rested since a lengthy turf route campaign this summer; returning breeze pattern is on the light side, however, and she may be using this race as a springboard to a longer assignment in the near future.

Postal Pam

Attended the pace at a mile 2 months ago but subsequent workout regimen is modest; may benefit in this spot by the lack of any quality pace opposition; reverts to the original rider and can be in the mix.

Janet's Pearl

Sheds the blinks and adds Lasix but there is little hope on the horizon; outside of a remote showing way back in July, she has yet to show much firepower; cannot endorse as a major candidate even with the equipment change.

Suavity

Decent effort last month when rallying late; should be chasing a softer half-mile fraction today and move forward; began her career at this oval when facing far better stock than this; seems worth some follow-up.

Crossed Hearts

Just missed a month ago when earning a personal best Beyer; although stepping up the ladder here, she still seems a consideration because of the light opposition; should be a major late presence today if avoiding another troubled trip.

Afacetofteton

Quit early in her most recent assignment while big odds; most recent half-mile breeze was modest and she may have a difficult time keeping pace; needs some key late scratches to the left in order to hit the board.

Tarpy's Wish

In dire need of the last start, she can be forgiven that performance because of the slow break, bad post and wide trip; fine trainer/jockey combination is a plus and she should move forward off that effort; playable today.

Lily Aidan

Doubles in price after showing more late kick in that June getaway race; has been breezing in improved fashion during the last month and may be able to handle this escalation as a result; interesting item if escaping AEs.

Lady Persevere

Beginner need not be much to make an impact against this group; her sire won 4 of 20 and 96K (progeny of Classy Prospector have won only 1 of 42 debuts, however); the dam won 1 of 11 and 5K; this is her only foal to start.

Know in Advance

Keeps earning minor checks and is worth exotic wagering inclusion if somehow making it to the gate today; 2 races back, she earned this field's best lifetime Beyer; if she can duplicate, or surpass, that performance she would prove mighty tough.

Aspersion

Can upgrade with the makeover package of Lasix and blinkers; ignore the last effort around 2 turns; previous sprint tries displayed some rallying ability; would need a ton of luck to get in and will likely have to wait until another day.

Race 6

Awesome Sky

Casse one for 7 the last 5 years with MSW juveniles going synthetic to dirt and 3 ran second; solid debut considering he walked out of the gate; sire was a proven router; dam was unraced; both siblings won twice including Sky Dreamer, who was Grade 3 placed, took juvenile debut and won going this distance on the synthetic at Woodbine; inside again, respect.

Seal Six

Harty one for 8 the last 5 years with MSW juveniles going synthetic to dirt and 4 ran second; must respect his speed and like the fact he got a work over the surface; sire could run all day long; 5 for 33 dam took 2 routes; family is solid; all 9 siblings won; top kin Colonel John was a double winner at 2, won multiple G1s routing on way to over $1.7 million career; could be long gone here.

Eirigh

First time on the conventional but the way he drilled on 10/5 suggests he has taken to the surface; dam was unraced; the sibling to win took 2 sprints, one as a juvenile; must pick it up.

Strong Tapit

Stablemate in the debut ran 10th; nice try to kick it off but now the waters are much deeper; all 3 of sire's wins were routes; Grade 2 winning dam was sprint only; the half bro to win took one sprint as an older horse; cost $2,600, probably needs softer.

Tapit Town

Legit trouble in the debut when he hopped in the air; super try in last and note he was clear for fun of the 4th finisher; place horse in the debut graduated next out by nearly 7 and then was crushed in a $100K stakes; dam proved stamina taking G1 Kentucky Oaks; 2 of 3 sibs won including route winner and over $50K earner Eton Blue; his chances could improve if he can prove he can rate.

Thundergram

Youngster was on the slow pace but the experience should help him move forward; dam was unraced; all 3 siblings won; two won at 2 including juvenile debut winner, 5-time route winner and near $600K earner Hurricane Ike; expect a better effort here.

General Ike

Youngster has drilled forwardly since hopping in the air; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; don't be shocked if he is more into the bit early this time with the blinks; rates upset glance.

Commanding Curve

Colt took pretty good action in the debut off a work tab that included a second best of the day :47 2/5 drill 6 days before the bow; both of dam's wins were sprints; lone half sis to race Hot Roots won at 2, took a route, banked nearly $125K; love the series of drills since the last; figures right on the line when the smoke clears.

Long Station

McPeek good with this move; he is 5 for 30 the last 5 years with MSW juveniles going synthetic to dirt and 15 others ran in the money; runner was in kind of tough on the cut back on a new surface; dam's long win was a sprint; this is her first to race; could easily see him sitting a nice stalk and pounce trip; best Beyer was here and clearly here; interesting.

Chas's Legacy

Like the fact gelding was inching toward the winner late; dam out of the money in only out; one of 3 siblings won; that runner, Salaam Alaykum, cashed once on grass as older horse at a mile at Gulfstream; runner could be compromised by the post today.

Race 8

Bully Girl

Favored-loss on KEE synthetic but heads back to turf where 2 of her 3 wins occurred and her career-best Beyer 3-back at longer than this; the 2-back runner-up finisher posted a 77 speed figure in her next-out KEE-optional-claiming win; ran well in a loss to Gift Receipt in her only other-CD grass start; saves ground then makes 1 big-late run.

Clever Gretel

The 4th and 10th-place finishers from last 75 days ago Beyered 81-76 in next-out IND-optional-claiming wins; the 7%-winning fresh trainer does not add to the appeal however her CD-dirt graduation was following a 64-day absence and would prefer this moved to the main track; 2-back loss to Bully Girl on grass suggests we rank her a notch below the top contenders if this remains on the sod.

Gift Receipt

Fresh-gate speed likely; 145-day absence off the CD-grass fade testing the runner-up finisher who Beyered 92 and 91 in 2 next-out wins including a KD-125K stakes; big-gate speed in her CD-green debut a career-best speed figure; the 3-back winner and runner-up Beyered 76-72 in next-out AP alw. and WO-40K-claiming wins..

Pistoria

Today marks the shortest-distance test of her career; exits a rallying win at 2F longer than this on synthetic but turf has been a good oval for her with 2 wins at longer and her career-best Beyer on the green; the 2-back runner-up finisher posted a 64 speed figure in her next-out PEN alw. win; can she get up in time to win it all?

Ultimate Class

1-for-6 since claimed in February off a 5F-turf win over lesser; was primed for this on CD green at longer noting her best Beyer since 2012 was at a much longer distance than this; wet turf produced her last win picture; horse for the course has not missed a CD on-the-board green finish during career so hard to leave out of the exotics picture.

One Fast Frog

New barn hits 24% winners 1st-time out with newly-acquired runners; cuts back to the shortest-distance test of career; main issue is turf with one grass race during career way back February, 2012, a fading 5th-place finish at longer.

Sibonet

Another who cuts back in distance to the shortest race of career; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 78 in a next-out WO-150K stakes win; best Beyer and 2 of 3 wins on synthetic surfaces while her last turf start was far from her best effort.

Grilledham'ncheese

June, 2012, was her last start at 5F a 6th-place finish; winless on the grass and is another who has performed her best on synthetic surfaces which she definitely won't be getting today; June, 2012, an 8th-place finish in a MNR-15K claimer was her last grass start.

Dixie Jackpot

121 days since fading on a wet-main track; her best Beyer and 3 of 5 wins occured on fast dirt; lone turf race was a 7th-place finish May, 2012, in an IND-green 1M event; posted a mild worktab on dirt for this; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Lotta Distinction

Long absence with a positive trainer change leaving a 5%-win barn into the hands of a 23% trainer 1st-time out with newly-acquired runners; needs a massive-wakeup call off back-to-back Beyer-career lows; the 2-back winner repeated in a GP-optional claimer with an 85 speed figure.

Bent Missile

Main Track Only entry has been consistently good on fast-main tracks however could not hang on late at 6F which makes today's cutback in distance appealing; the 3-back winner repeated in a MNR-100K stakes with an 81 Beyer; view as a major pace presence.

Haberdashery

Sire is 2-for-18 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an 0-for-3 dam who did not race on grass; light-main track Beyers on display with her-very best effort on a less-than-fast oval; leaps up in price tag to her highest tag ever coming off a last-place finish and career-low speed figure; a tough call.

Costly

2 good ones right off the August claim but in latest was a dull-betting favorite when fading; field-best speed figure was on a wet-main track so hopes this one gets rained off; defeated the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 60 in a next-out TDN-10K-claiming win.

Taty's Gold

Troubled-favorite loss in her only other CD-grass race when coming off a long layoff; she has been idle 46 days for this after defeated by the winner who repeated in a HAW-75K event with an 81 Beyer; way off best form currently exiting her lowest speed figure since March, 2012.

Race 9

Gospel Lesson

Toss that 4th at FG Feb. 16 (which preceded a 4-month layoff) and you're left with nothing but strong form going back to last Sept. (10 straight top-2 finishes); tough, tough beat in the mud at IND Oct. 9 when he set the pace adn just got nailed late to lose by a neck, while 10 clear of 3rd; speed to be in it from the bell and note some good work here, too.

Son of a General

Things got off to a nice start this year (won first 2 starts) but now have come 5 straight 4ths; oh, he hasn't run badly, but his lack of speed has put him behind the 8-ball in a few of those; offered for a tag, but he's no giveaway for this hefty a price and the drop may be big to boot as he's also back in vs. N2X foes instead of those tougher N3X guys.

Sniper

Invades from Canada where he did very well in 2012 (4 for 9) but not quite as well this year (0 for 6); so, he must not only deal with new surroundings but there's a layoff involved, it's first time on dirt, his lack of speed sometimes leaves him with a bit too much to do and it's not as if he comes here in peak form; oh, and he didn't find some easy spot for this first local try, either.

Flashy Sunrise

Was on top of his game last fall/winter with 3 wins and 3 2nds in 6 starts; alas, while that was enough to earn a shot at the G2 Brooklyn he found those tougher rivals, slop and 12fs far too much to handle and his 2 races since weren't that sharp so it makes you wonder if that Brooklyn try knocked him for a loop; Stewart has given him a break and a chance to regroup and maybe that's enough to get him back on track; after all, he's done some good work off the bench (2 wins, 1 2nd, the last 3 off a layoff).

Bradester

3yo comes off a fine 2nd in the G2 Indiana Derby when 2nd to the nice Baffert runner Power Broker while beating the highly promising West Coaster Holy Lute; has speed but isn't one-dimensional, and as you can see from his first 2 starts here (2nd, then 1st) he obviously has no problem playing here; 3 strong works since including 2 bullets say he's ready.

Pioneering Native

Coupled with It Happened Again and with Goncalves named on both only 1 will go; it's his first time here but heck, he's run well at RP, FG,OP, PRM and IND so odds are he'll handle this place; Amoss off to a great start this meet (3 for first 5) and while he moves this guy up in class he doesn't win at a high percentage (32% overall this year) because he puts his horses in the wrong spots; veteran has speed and versatility.

Drogue

Tough race, eh?; toss his lone synthetic track try (at AP) in May and you're left with 6 straight dirt races, including a 2nd and a 1st here in September; does have to move up in class but he's shown he's got the necessary oomph (owns Beyers of 92, 93, 89) so that he's by no means out of his element vs. this kind; 3 recent local works boost optimism; hey, he wasn't far behind 'Native at OP in the spring and if that guy is a player here - and he is - then doesn't it follow that this guy can be, too?; darn right it does.

Bashaar

Hey, he's a G3 SP so there's some quality here; in fact, that 3rd in the G3 Iowa Derby was enough to earn him a shot at the G2 Jim Dandy and G2 Super Derby; OK, so those waters proved too deep; however, Peitz has given him time to regroup, there are some solid works as he prepares for his return and while it's first time vs. elders it's still a class drop as he doesn't anyone like Palace Malice, Will Take Charge or Departing lined up against him here.

It Happened Again

Coupled with Pioneering Native and with Goncalves named on both only 1 will go; 7yo has been a tough customer for a long time - hey, you don't win 11 times by accident; showed just a few months ago with a big win and big Beyer at IND (97) he's still got some oomph; 2 outings since weren't any great shakes, but both were stakes and they sandwich a 2-month layoff; it's a drop on paper, though the quality of opposition is stakes-like, but there's no layoff and he worked very nicely here Oct. 24.

Quiet Man

Thigns didn't go so well from July 2012 to this June; however, he popped up with a wire-to-wire win at 16-1 on this track Sept. 21 so maybe, just maybe, that'sa sign he's back on track, and that win looks better when you note 2 he beat that day came right back to win; some of his best work has come here; that being said, that win came over $50K claimers - this spot is a lot tougher - but it's nice they feel good enough about him to try this tougher spot and they don't risk losing him for a tag; bullet :36.20 move here Nov. 3 says he's feeling pretty spry these days.

A. P. Indian

No way to knock a horse who's 2 for 2; OK, we'll give it a try; while he's done so nicely the Beyer of his Sept. 6 win (81) here leaves him quite a ways behind the big players in here; however, he's run just twice so there's plenty of reason to believe he can still vault forward; that last win shows he likes this place and he's worked very smartly since including a bullet :48.60B here Nov. 1 to make you think there's more under the hood than he's shown so far.