Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 8, 2013

Race 1

Southern Symphony

5th but not far behind to-be DQ'd R Next Escapade at this level at KEE Oct. 18 (2 3/4 lengths); that was on synthethic and this gal may be better on THIS footing; it was also her first start in over 2 months so she may be fitter and tougher; it was also nice to see Moquett DOUBLED her in value when he brought her back at KEE and he keeps her at the same price.

Lucky Mary G.

A good 3rd at IND Oct. 8; remember, too, that came vs. some tough optional claimers INCLUDING elders; well, she's back in vs. 3yos only and down in class and note a very nice win over this track a year ago; those last 2 starts were her first of the year, too, so she's certainly eligible to move forward.

Wilhelmina

Some smart June/July form (2 wins, 1 2nd in 3 starts) was nice but things have tailed off since; in her defense, her 2 IND starts came vs. elders and optional claimers; then tried this level at KEE Oct. 18; didn't run badly to be 6th while quite wide, but that was also first time on synthetic; nice to see no panicky drop by Anderson and maybe the return to dirt can get her back on track...maybe.

Big Brown Brookski

Burned some money in her last 2 as she ran 7th at WO and then at KEE; can't blame the Polytrack footing - her maiden win came on WO's Polytrack; now takes a significant drop though it's also first time on dirt and first time here; and while she looked good winning 2 straight at WO in May/June there's no denying things have gone south since; is the drop and move to dirt enough to snap her back to life?

Elusive Act

Big win for $35K at SAR Aug. 12, then a nice 2nd there Aug. 26; however, she came here to face elder N1X foes going a mile, broke in the air, rushed up to challenge as the 3-2 favorite and then hit a wall, fading badly; at least there's no layoff and while she drops it hardly has the look of a fire sale; after all, she remains above her claimed price ($35K); worked well since; drop and return to sprinting may do the trick, particularly as Leparoux takes the call.

R Next Escapade

Just gamely 'won' a race just like this at KEE Oct. 18, only to be DQ'd; still, there's no denying she ran well and it shows she fits well at this level; yes, that was on synthetic but note some real good work on dirt this past winter/spring, so the footing is no issue; that KEE run was her first in almost 2 months so it's not only nice to see no drop but that there's not another layoff, too.

Magical Powder

Had things going decently this past spring at ASD but her form tailed off this summer includling dueling and fading badly in a stakes there Sept. 21; been freshened and drops and maybe that can all help; even so, from a Beyer standpoint she's got some work to do if she's to deal with these.

Race 2

Lizzie Belle

Loose-on-the-lead winner to snap a 1-for-19 mark and score over lesser non-winners of 2 rivals; 1st time on CD dirt but clearly wants to be part of the pace here but has Cash Is Queen to fend off early; 31 days idle for an 0-for-6-fresh trainer since 2012; beat the 2-back show runner on turf her best surface who posted a 75 Beyer speed figure in a next-out KEE-20K-claiming win; the 3-back runner-up scored next out in an IND-25K claimer with a 73 speed figure.

Bocce

9 weeks since posting her lowest Beyer since March; has been best on fast-main tracks which she has not received since her June-MNR romp; 1st time on CD dirt in need of a wakeup call; the 2-back winner repeated in a MNR alw. with a 74 speed figure.

C P Hath a Way

Rallied nicely right off the 163-day layoff while her best Beyer and last win occurred on turf; her last dirt start was a November, 2012, mild rally in a key race; the runner-up and show finishers Beyered 65-60 in next-out OP-TAM-30K-25K-claiming wins; defeated the 3-back show finisher who Beyered 67 in her next-out CD-starter alw. victory then repeated with a 76 taking a KEE-30K claimer.

Teller Terri

111 days to regroup off a career-low Beyer when outrun throughout; doing the rain dance for this; she owns her career-best speed figure on CD-wet dirt at today's distance and that was also coming off a freshening; was edged by the 2-back show finisher who posted a 78 speed figure in her next-out IND-starter handicap win.

Greek Bird

Saved her career-best Beyer for last when racing on a synthetic surface for just the 2nd time; posted her lone win at 2F shorter on CD fast dirt; style suggests she should like going long but in her 3 other routes faded; the 3-back winner and runner-up finishers Beyered 89-76 in next-out CBY-100K stakes and ELP-optional-claiming wins.

Bourbon Best

She has not fired back to her best Beyers from starts 1 and 2 in West Virginia; commenced career 2-for-2 then 4 straight double-digit length defeats; 1st time in a claimer since the career-debut win but it also marks her 1st CD dirt attempt; gets in with her lightest-weight assignment ever but would be a complete surprise.

Town Flirt

1st time ever racing with blinkers on; wet-track dirt winner the last time seen on the main track May, 2012; August, 2010, was a 5th-place finish in her career-debut on SAR fast dirt at 5.5F; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 72 in a next-out KEE-starter alw. win; not fond of claiming off high-win-percentage barns but the new trainer yields a superb 37% winners 1st off the purchase.

Cash Is Queen

Has not raced past 7F yet; sire was a multiple-Grade 1-SW in dirt routes; dam went 1-for-2 in dirt routes including a 65K stakes win; dueled into defeat 2-back by the winner who repeated in a MNR-100K stakes with an 81 Beyer; figures to take these a long way up top as the one to catch.

Tipthetrolleygirl

Posted 3 straight new Beyer speed figure Tops while back on dirt where her 2-for-2 CD-main track record is noted scoring at today's distance in November, 2012; versatile sort can win from anywhere but likes to be forwardly placed; figures to sit just off Cash Is Queen and Lizzie Belle before getting 1st run on the closers; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 79 in a next-out KEE-allowance win; the 2-back winner repeated in an IND-optional claimer with an 81 speed figure.

Race 3

Brendamargaretsbiz

Moderate workouts for this daughter of Nobiz Like Shobiz who won 7 of 13 and 1.54 million including a G1 score; his progeny have won 4 of 56 debuts; the dam won 1 of 7 attempts and 5K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Bourbonnmycoffee

She was sired by Yankee Gentleman who won 4 of 10 and 202K; his descendants are 36 for 257 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 2 of 8 and 83K; among the winning siblings is 91K earner Ole Rugged Cross.

Curb Appeal

Flashed vast improvement, pace-wise, in the last run before tiring; her sire won the Breeders' Cup Mile and 1.26 million; the mom won 1 of 6 and 17K; there are no winning siblings to highlight; should fare better at this reduced level.

Madame Wasabi

Respectable showing in that Mountaineer getaway race and she returns with Lasix; recent workout activity is fair and she tries claimers for only the second time; can be a late presence today if there is the proper pace set-up.

Betty's Rose

Beginner was sired by Big Atlantic who was zero for 2 lifetime but whose progeny have won 3 of 5 initial attempts; the dam won 1 of 13 and 21K; winning siblings include 9K bankroller Sophia Fontana.

Lillysadilly

Yet to make an impact regardless of surface or distance; she began her career at this oval and finished far back although that was against much stronger stock than this; still, cannot endorse as a serious candidate.

Borrowed Freedom

Has a better first gear than most of this field but must avoid a speed duel with Curb Appeal in the opening stages; in the race 2 back at Indiana, although the final time was ordinary, the early fractions of that event were extremely fast.

Zimbabwe Lady

Retired early in her debut over the grass but can improve by lengths and bounds with this surface switch; her sire won the Belmont Stakes and 890K while the dam involved was unraced; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Pollard's Memory

New face was sired by G2 victor Pollard's Vision who amassed 1.43 million and whose progeny have scored in nearly 10 percent of their first ventures; the dam won 1 of 7 and 21K; sib to 14K earner Melody for Maria.

Hookah Lady

Drops in half for today's assignment after failing to keep pace behind a blowout winner last month; she has been troubled by a difficult post position history in the past and should be an early presence at the least against this caliber.

Charlize

She displayed a bit more early zip in her last assignment but unfortunately draws a wide slot once again; can improve off the tightener but still seems destined for a futile trip while caught outside; pass until further notice.

Bernies Princess

Tries blinkers after failing in the mud a month ago; she makes only her second start for these connections and if she can improve upon the performance of 2 back when narrowly missing, she should be able to hit the board now even from this outpost.

Race 5

Lady Persevere

Just a handful of slow breezes on tap for this one's debut run for a low profile outfit; rail is a tough place to start from for a newcomer and this gal's sire is just 1 for 42 with his first out runners; she's the first foal to race out of a limited sprint winning dam.

Bell d'Amour

Makes her first start in nearly a year while showing up without blinkers for the initial time; she's never raced this cheaply and though she didn't do much in her lone sprint try first out she did show a little bit of ability going long on other surfaces before hitting the shelf; she is kin to 2 multiple sprint winners including SP, 262K earner Khan of Khans who won 10 sprints.

Candiebelle

Took a little tote support first out here but didn't do much running from the inside slot against that better bunch; maybe the drop helps, but her sibs have been much better at longer distances than the one turn trip she'll tackle today so maybe she'll go better when stretched out.

Know in Advance

Mare has had plenty of chances and wasn't a threat from the fence in her second crack at the trip and level last out; maybe the move off the rail helps and she was ok here 2 starts back, earning a number that fits well in this weak heat; can get in the mix.

Bella Afleet

Tried MSWs first out around this time last year and didn't offer very much; just a few drills on her return tab which question how ready she is for the comebacker, but she is kin to 3 multiple sprint winners including 12 time sprint winner and 181K earner Sabalucious; don't know that she has any ability, but she couldn't have found a much softer spot for her return.

Aspersion

Goes first time for a new barn off the 3 month break and now she'll get Lasix and shades, both for the initial time; mare did little first out over the track and there's not much to suggest things will go any better for her in this spot; have to pass on her.

Flattermekate

Four year old has been working slowly, but steadily of late for her unveiling for an outfit that does ok right out of the box; sire gets about 9% first out winners from his offspring and the dam didn't win her lone start prior to dropping one foal who hit the board without winning in each of her 2 spins.

Littlebitcranky

Most experienced runner in here turns back to sprint after failing to get close to the top 3 in the local slop last week; filly doesn't have speed so she'll likely find herself even further out of it than usual in here and that may leave her with way too much to do in the lane to threaten for the top spot.

Electric Seat

Don't know much about this barn and this newcomer's slow breezes don't clear much up about her ability or readiness to fire first out; sire gets 11% winners from his newcomers and all 3 of the dam's wins came routing prior to dropping 2 multiple winners including Tax Season, a 78K earner who won 6 sprints.

Prized Star

Filly did little in her 3 starts including 2 back on the Ellis lawn at this level; winless dam did drop several winners including a 6 time main track sprint winner ad G2 SP, SW turfer and 248K earner Rock Opera, but this gal doesn't look to have inherited much of the family's ability.

Cozy Sunday

Fresh filly brings speed to the table in her local return after being given a little time off a decent effort at Indiana Downs; she caught slop in her lone crack here and still showed early interest; expect she'll be pushed from the bell in a field without any early foot and will probably have to be run down.

Memos Lolita

Outside drawn filly hasn't done much of anything thus far and her return from the break at Keeneland wasn't very encouraging; maybe she'll find things a little more to her liking here, but off what she's done this far she looms another big price.

Miss Nancy Frances

AE looks to make her debut for a barn that doesn't boast a single starter yet this year; sire gets just 4% first out winners and the dam was winless from 4 starts but she dropped 2 winners from 3 foals to race, the better of which being G3 SP, SW and 310K earner Megoman whose 10 wins all came routing or on the green.

Lil Tiffy

AE makes her first start in half a year while dropping in for her cheapest tag yet; filly goes for a sharp layoff outfit, but they are winless on the year; 2 of her 4 sibs to race are multiple winners; if she has any ability it's time to start showing it.

Race 7

Lion Down by Me

She's getting back to her best game, sprinting on turf, after a pair of longer grass races at Lrl; might find herself farther off the pace on the turnback in distance, and not sure how that might translate from the sometimes-difficult rail post; however, like that she is a stakes winner and if the pace is strong she could do some real damage late; one of several who can share.

Tessie Flip

She's making her turf debut for a stallion who is getting 11 percent winners from his first-time turfers and 13 percent winners overall on the grass; this one's dam was a stakes winner on the grass who compiled a 5-for-7 record on the green, where she banked $312K; overall, she earned $399K; on another pedigree note, this one is a half-sister to the fantastic Switch, a multiple Grade 1 winner of $1.4M; can share.

Three Am Tour (IRE)

She does give up recency to these as she has not raced since June; however, she's run well fresh in the past, and note she has been well-flattered since her two-length score last out; the runner-up came back in her next start to take a $40K optional claimer at AP with a Beyer Figure of 81, and the third-place finisher, a conditioned allowance at Mnr, with a Beyer of 80; might get nice tracking trip off Bounding Bi; win candidate.

Mosaicist (IRE)

She added Lasix two starts ago and won a $50K optional claiming turf sprint at this distance at Mth; moves back into the overnight ranks following a fourth-place finish in the $200K Turf Amazon at Prx; the race came over yielding ground and she might be better served by different footing as she's won over firm and good courses; is a half-sister to Snaefell, a multiple Group 3-winning sprinter who has earned $500K; leading contender.

Bounding Bi

She's moving back into the overnight ranks after a stakes start last out at Kee; has class appeal as one who has placed in six stakes races during her career; she also has more natural speed than these and looks like a candidate to show the way; blinkers are back on and her last win on form came in the equipment; a drawback is that she must again face Sweet Cassiopeia; the one to catch.

Classy Zip

She's proven class as a stakes winner and she's returning to the overnight ranks after facing steeper last out at KD; shortens up some in distance, too, and the move would seem to suit runner whose best recent races have come at distances similar to this five-eighths of a mile trip; capable of firing a big race.

Sweet Cassiopeia

She's a consistent sort and arguably the most accomplished member of the field as a two-time stakes winner; has been knocking on the door in stakes company of late, and three back faced Grade 1 competition in the Princess Rooney at Crc; has a useful stalking style, a win over the local course, and owns the field's best last-race Beyer Speed Figure; choice.

Race 8

Zippy Carlie Joe

Been a long time between drinks for this gal; this is her distance though as she goes outside to the inside for this; note she did regress on the Beyer scale in the last second off the layoff run; more experience pilot this time, not sure that is the cure all here.

Izza Star

Split cast when beaten 7 the last time in this league; miss had dead aim at the top of the lane in last just could not carry on with the momentum; could see her in a stalk and pounce mode this time; rates legit look in the gimmicks at least.

The Queen's Hat

Forced to steady in that June swoon and she has not looked the same since; return less than stellar so the price drop is logical; show horse in the July finale won twice since, the last in an open $10K claimer 10/26 at KEE; hard to adore.

Milhojas

Broke in the air two back against rival on the direct outside today; she may not have adored the sealed sloppy strip in last and she has a chance to show more speed on the stretch out; apparently not much of a work horse but she is proven at this distance; not without a shot.

Ten Cent Lady

Hung wide in the September race, she pressed the pedestrian pace in last and still could not close the deal; crushed the other 2 times for this price in N2L land, could envision her pushing the issue, not sure she will be around when the smoke clears.

Kim's Shine

Wide when protected two back, she was in the marooned slot last time and never got untracked; miss needs some help on the front end but this is her easiest spot since the August finale; look for her in the final stages if at all.

Smarty Party

At least she has the two races to draw from now as she drops a few floors; note she already won over her conditions in that last score at Turfway; blinkers off today, just like they were for her maiden breaker on the grass at Colonial; backers have to hope the class dip shakes her up.

Nothing to Nothing

Out of the money the 3 times at this distance; she lost all chance when off poorly in last and may have hated the rail to boot; miss cashed at the demanding distance two back but not thrilled with fact she was losing ground late; would expect rider to send and hope for the best, but the stamina is a concern.

Roman Innocence

Protected in last and she's probably happy to not be able to build on her 0 for 14 synthetic record today; the 8/23 winner repeated in an open $5K claimer, then lost next pair; nearly 3 clear at this level in the 9/13 effort; expect much better effort.

Hot French Fries

Soph was in the clever hands of Hollendorfer out West and she had to rush up after stumbling early; she understandably wilted; the 8/7 place horse cashed next out took an N2L for this very price, lost next 4; the 8/26 win jumps off the canvas; a clean break and it could be a whole new ballgame.

Race 9

Looking Cool

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and multiple graded stakes placed dam won 6 of 23 starts for 283k, and she didn't make a turf start; third place finisher from latest won next out at CD on 11/2 going 6f in a 62k stakes with a 98 Beyer; he has a G3 win to his credit but turf is a question.

King David

He's a G1 winner racing over turf and he was ready to roll after a long layoff in his latest outing; third place finisher from latest won next out at Kee on 10/26 going 1m over turf vs. N2X alw. rivals with an 83 Beyer; he's tough to ignore while going out for a high win percentage barn that gets the job done with turf starters.

The Thinker

Respect the fact that he's gotten the job done in three of five turf starts, and he has shown good early speed in most of his races, but it would have been nice to have seen him show more in his latest outing while making his first start away from the Brown barn.

Key to Power

Nicely bred colt is clearly capable of a better effort than what he showed up with in his latest outing, but he was soundly beaten by a couple of today's rivals that day, and in a race where the winner is likely to earn a Beyer Speed Figure in the 90's, his top figure is an 88.

Olympic Thunder (BRZ)

Grade 3 stakes placed performer has run well in all three of his turf starts since arriving in America, and even though he didn't run poorly over the synthetic surface at Keeneland in his latest outing, he figures to appreciate getting back over turf for this; viewing him in the light of a top contender.

Star Channel

He's a stakes winner racing over turf and he didn't run poorly when testing himself in a G1 just three starts ago; his latest effort was one of the sharpest performances of his career and he shows up for a new barn after a 62.5k claim, and this outfit has won with two of three starts right after a claim over the past three years.

Positive Side

He ran well when chasing one of today's key rivals in Ol Army in his latest start, a race that saw him earn a career best Beyer Speed Figure, and that level of performance can get him into the mix against these; Goncalves is three-for-three riding for this barn at the current meeting.

Stealcase

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and minor stakes placed dam won 2 of 15 starts for 88k, and she didn't make a turf start; turf is a question, but this G3 winner has displayed solid dirt form and becomes an obvious threat if this race has to be moved to the main track.

Ol Army

He figures to be forwardly placed right from the bell and he's shown the ability to run a mile over turf that is strong enough to keep him involved in the running throughout; there is a chance that the early pace will be moderate, and that would be to his liking.

Street Serenade

Minor stakes placed 4-year-old has performed well against a number of today's key rivals in his recent starts and the third place finisher from his latest race won next out at Kee on 10/26 going 1m over turf vs. N2X alw. rivals with an 83 Beyer; he shows up for a capable turf barn and deserves to be listed among the contenders.

Big Town

Have to respect the work that he's done from six starts over the main track here, but he'll have to earn it if this race gets taken off the turf as a few horses in the main body of this race sport strong dirt form; that said, he's clearly a contender; runner up from latest won next out at Kee on 10/11 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. N3X alw. rivals with a 92 Beyer.

The Best Glacier

Can't ignore the fact that this stakes placed veteran is making his first start after a claim for a barn that hits at a 35% clip in that category, but this gelding might need to top his previous best effort to beat the top contenders in this spot.

Mellow Fellow

He's been known to show up with a performance that is better than expected but he's never run a race that is up to the level of the top contenders in here; an outside post awaits in the event that he draws in, and that will just add to the level of difficulty for him.

Potomac River

Nicely bred turfer has seen his form take a noticeable turn for the better since moving into this barn, and as long as he can get some early pace to run at, which isn't a guarantee in this spot, he figures to be moving in on them through the stretch.

Rockerfeller

His top three Beyer Speed Figures are 103, 107 and 112, but he earned those figures sprinting over dirt back in 2008, and now he's trying to get it going again after a near two year layoff; he has the look of an outsider.

Keg Party

This looks like a tough assignment for him but he's three-for-four racing over turf and his one defeat was to Daddy Nose Best; third place finisher from latest won next out at RP on 10/17 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 50k OPC's with an 86 Beyer.

Race 10

Mykindagold

Makes his 15th attempt in these ranks but did display more enthusiasm in the latest run when overcoming a soft pace to capture minor spoils; the major drawback is that he has not shown much firepower when racing at this oval in the past.

Playitagain Howie

Even effort from the outside in his last run at Indiana; it was an improved effort all-around and he can upgrade further from this comfortable slot today; note important trouble line in the race 2 back when defeated by some of these same rivals.

Polaris

Rested since being claimed way back in mid-March; his sire won multiple G1s and 2.76 million; the dam won 3 of 23 and 179K; there are no winning siblings to mention; switches to apprentice handling and is a very puzzling item.

Scatman Blues

Could not keep pace with some of these foes last month but was only 7 to 2 that day; earned some strong Beyers in comparison to these when racing in California but needs a strong early tempo in order to have a realistic chance today.

Tyler T

Worth some trifecta inclusion based on his overall record; personal best Beyer was achieved locally in late September and if he can equal, or surpass, that performance level he should be in the hunt here; latest half-mile breeze was fair.

Regal Sun

Yet to finish in the money although this is only his second try for a tag; was not far off the early pace in his May getaway race here and might appreciate the cutback in distance and class relief; son of Monarchos will be a generous price again.

Pegasus Flyer

A pace factor of some concern now on the turnback; he has been caught wide in most of his starts and suffered through an extremely tough beat 2 races ago; worth some inclusion in your exotic wagering approach.

Twill Be

Did not recover from a slow getaway race in his comeback race and should improve off that much needed effort; passed a few faders in that run but will require a more accelerated pace today in order to land a share.

Mawhinney

Commendable showing in his maiden voyage when gaining some ground on Tyler T in the final stages; his sire won multiple G1s and 1.33 million; the dam was zero for 2; winning siblings include 46K earner Lunar Chip.

Lake Brilliant

Ran a sharp race from the extreme outside in his latest attempt and fits like a glove in this field; although outfinished by some of these opponents 2 races back, he did all of the grueling pacesetting work that day and can turn the tables this afternoon.

Bayou Buddha

Newcomer need not be much to be a primetime player today; his sire won a G1 and 489K (progeny of Buddha have won 22 out of 340 debuts); the dam won 1 of 8 and 10K; sib to several multiple winners include 116K earner Hope Chest.

Stone Cold Wild

Returns to the dime level but is still in search of his initial in-the-money finish; ran a fair fourth in his last appearance here but that was at seven furlongs which might be his optimum distance; faces long road from this slot today.

Giant Hook

Did not fire in his unveiling at Gulfstream, a race which featured a repeat winner; his sire won multiple G1s and 3.07 million while the dam won 4 of 19 and 184K; among the winning siblings is 110K earner Eishin Puma.

Counselor Ron

He displayed more early speed in his last route attempt; has not accomplished much since the purchase way back in March though and seems unlikely to be a strong presence here if escaping AEs.

Rayo Del Sol

Rushed into a speed duel in that second outing and he faded from view at huge odds; his sire won 9 of 35 and 356K while the dam went zero for 2; this is her only foal to compete; improbable starter seems in deep.

April One

Upgraded in the last run, which was nearly 2 months ago, but has yet to achieve a clean break from the gate; subsequent workout regimen is average for the most part and he cannot be endorsed at this time.