Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 6, 2013

Race 2

I Knot

Blossomed at IND the past few months, winning 5 of 6 - and the 1 loss was pretty darn good, too (ran 2nd); just won for $10K there Oct. 2 and not only did Frost see fit to claim her but it's a great sign he more than doubles her in value for her first start for him; that speaks of confidence; it also means facing tougher, so that's a hurdle, but she's a pro (you don't win 11 of 22 by accident), has run well here and posted a real nice work here recently, too.

Victory Island

Toss that turf dud at BEL June 28 (ran 7th) an dyou're left with 4 strong outings this year, all dirt sprints, which is the game we're playing today; claimed for $20K at SAR Aug. 29, then claimed again by current trainer Maker when a winner for $15K at BEL Oct. 5; Maker a strong 25% off the claim and while she's up in price (a nice sign) note she's got a touch of back-class, so she's not a fish out of water here at all.

Precision Farming

Sidelined 7 months after a couple stakes duds last winter and when she came back at IND Sept. 14 she had a troubled start and was no factor; it was nice, however, that Asmussen saw fit to claim her (23% off a claim); he's freshened her and it's also encouraging he brings her back for same price; she's failed to hit the board in 3 dry-fast track appearances, but if it's wet, not she won her only prior wet-track race.

Juliet's Promise

2 for 2 here including, both last year, including a romping maiden win and then a game $30K N2L win; did some good work at FG this winter/spring including a nice 2nd in a spot similar to this March 31; trouble is, she hasn't been seen since; good news at least is she's been working along steadily for Jones who's strong off the bench, and you already know she likes it here.

Brilliant Autumn

Looked super biding her time and powered past her rivals to easily win for this price at KEE Oct. 5; obviously the footing is different but note she has won here and also on FG dirt, so the footing shouldn't be an issue; that big last win shows the late summer hiatus may have been just what the Dr. ordered and while Cox claimed her (28% off a claim) he brings her back for the same price.

Sunshineandsilence

Awfully game winning at IND Oct. 16; she dueled from the start and to her credit was actually edging away in the final strides; that came for $18K so she is up in value; she is 0 for 7 here, yes, but she's run some good races so it's not as if she doesn't like it here; still, it's no easy spot and it's interesting that off that game win they take the blinkers off.

Senacher

2 for 3 here so you know she likes this place; bulk of her work has come at higher levels, though those also came at TP, MNR and IND so the opposition may not have been as strong as the class level suggests; big issue for her is a lack of speed - she frequently leaves herself with a lot to do, and there's also the little matter of it being her first start in 4 months.

Do Dat Blues

2 for 3 here so she's another that has no trouble with this place; her big issue is after some good spring/summer work in Minnesota she's posted a couple clunkers, at AP and at KEE; in her defense, those came on different ground (turf, Polytrack) so maybe a return to this place and this footing can get her back on track...maybe.

Determined Yankee

Chased the pace before fading to 6th in her last at IND Aug. 12, but it's worth noting that was a very strong heat (produced 4 next-out winners); that being said, since she faded to be beaten 10 lengths she might not deserve too many bonus points for exiting such a key heat; only local start wasn't much, but it came in slop and after 7 months off, and she has worked nicely here of late. By Michael Hammersly

Race 3

Ephram S

Beyer speed figures improved on grass including the 2-back number which represents a field-best effort when chasing the winner who repeated in a KEE allowance with an 84 Beyer; reunites with the rider from his best Beyer; wish the dirt starts were better but drops into a maiden claimer for the 1st time the biggest class drop in racing while the trainer nails 24% turf-to-dirt winners since 2012.

Talk About Luck

61 days away since fading in his 1st race on CD dirt; has been working very well for the 1st start in a maiden claimer a high-win percentage angle for the trainer; projects to take these a long way up top; the show runner from last Beyered 88 in his next-out KEE-MSW win; the 3-back winner repeated in a PID alw. with a 67 speed figure.

Gameday Spanking

Both route races on turf were fades however in latest was screaming out for more distance in a sprint and gets it here; has lost for much-lower claiming prices during career and clearly seems at his best in races shorter than 7F; can improve 2nd time off a lengthy layoff but view as a stalking presence who hopes to find missing stamina in deep stretch.

Came to Believe

Lone race on dirt was the only exacta finish of caree and is another trying the lesser-maiden-claiming ranks for the 1st time; beat the debut show finisher who Beyered 43 in his next-out IND-MSW win; right back in 18 days after his turf debut was an even finish and getting today's distance is an issue.

Chrome Asset

Sire was a Grade 1-dirt route winner and is 20-for-274 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 4-0-1-0 dam (8K) who did not race past 7F producing 1 winner from 3 other foals to race (1-for-4 Naughty N Pg 6K who did not race past 6F but won her career debut at 5F on LS dirt).

Alert and Perky

Has not raced past 7F yet; sire was a Grade 1-dirt router; dam went 0-for-4 in dirt routes (7K); her only other foal to race is Dreamy Diva who finished 2nd in her only dirt route; 33%-winning sprint-to-route trainer adds to the appeal.

Warrior's Image

Has not raced past 6F yet; sire's G1 win was in a sprint going 0-for-3 in dirt routes with his best finish 6th; is out of an unraced dam who produced 4-for-8 dirt router Rayona and Bizzee Mizzee who went 4-for-11 in dirt routes (126K); the debut show runner Beyered 66 in his next-out CD-30K-maiden-claiming win.

New Found King

Been best on turf with his last dirt start a far-back finish over the track at shorter; began career with an exacta finish at 6F on the CD-main track for this price tag but since then put up 2 dull efforts on dirt; had to like his grass closes 2 and 3 back in a race with some suspect speed he may be moving the best in deep stretch.

Strike It Big

Just missed off the 8-week absence over the CD main track when screaming out for more distance and gets it here; his 3-back CD Mile was a good effort against quicker and would be hard to handle here if can just repeat that race; the 2-back winner repeated in a CD alw. with an 87 Beyer; the debut winner and runner-up finishers Beyered 80-72 in next-out CD alw. and BEL-MSW wins.

Net Profit

Races on his 3rd different surface in as many races but before latest posted bullet dirt workouts suggesting he will like today's main-track surface; faded in last 1st blinkers but it was an improved Beyer; trainer is just 1-for the last-21 with maiden-claiming starters; view as a major-pace presence. By Art Gropper

Race 4

Sluiceway

Filly steps into a protected spot after rallying too late from an inside slot at Indiana Downs; she wasn't beaten much at a slightly longer local trip 2 starts back, but now she'll move to the fence and that's not a good place for a runner with no early foot at all to start; there is plenty of speed in here and that helps, but she'll need to improve quite a bit from a figure standpoint to get involved in the outcome today.

Islet

First part of the coupling didn't have enough to go on late when beaten chalk at 7 panels at this level at Keeneland; she moves inside with speed and maybe the cut back to this trip allows her to relax and sit a ground saving trip in field with plenty of early foot; contender.

Galloping Domino

Other half of the barn's entry goes back to the pilot who was aboard for the open lengths score here first off their buy 2 starts back; mare has shown she's versatile enough to win from both off the pace and on the front end and there does look to be a lot of speed signed on in this heat; consider.

Hot Ember

Lightly raced sophomore steps up after beating limited winners in her Indiana Downs finale and now she'll make her local debut; she has solid tactical foot which should put her in a spot just off the front runners early; she's yet to run fast enough to step with some of these but she has only run a handful of times and has a right to improve; should have a shot to prove she's good enough.

T Jays Affair

Found 8 panels too far for her liking right now while trying the level last time and now she'll cut back to the trip of the near miss 2 starts back; mare hasn't been particularly fast of late but she should pack a more potent stretch kick at this trip and she does look to get plenty of pace in front of her.

Won Great Damsel

Speedy make makes her local return after getting caught arguing the fractions in her first start in 5 months at Thistledown; her out of town efforts earlier in the year were impressive and she does have a right to move forward second off the layoff, but it looks as if there will be plenty of company for her in her preferred spot so she'll have to earn this one from the bell.

Actin' Ugly

Turns back after showing some early foot in the Indiana Downs route fade; filly hasn't been a serious threat in a while now and her career slate at the trip doesn't suggest that the return to sprinting is going to move her up much, regardless of the pace in front of her; have to pass on this longshot.

Issheit

Brings plenty of early lick to the table but she hasn't tried this trip since the spring and she wasn't able to make the lead before backing up in that one; outside draw should help her sit a tracking trip and maybe she is able to settle some, but note that her 2 bigger numbers showing came on the lawn; prefer others.

Admired

Fresh speed returns from more than 3 months on the shelf after working hard every step of the way to score at this trip at Ellis Park; filly has shown that she can track from close range and fire as well so maybe that helps her some from out here while returning to a venue at which she's run pretty well in the past; consider.

Quite Explosive

Ran them down going a bit further at Keeneland off the freshening in her first start back in this barn's care; like the fact she was able to settle and mount a rally from well out of it in that one as her score 2 back came on the front end in Jersey; given the speed in front of her in this spot the repeat appears to be within reach. By Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Hurricane Pass

Cuts back from a fair, even try at Indiana; there are several gaps between races but that shortcoming can be negated as this is his first attempt at the claiming level; most recent half-mile breeze was average.

Dubaele

This colt makes only his second attempt for a tag; turned in a decent rally while jammed up between rivals in his last test; caught a sloppy track in his sole try over this main track; can improve off last month's much needed tightener.

Tazdue

Has a better first gear than most of this crew but endurance issues remain; one of several in this field descending from special weights, he needs to slow down the early tempo as much as possible.

Bad Bob

Made a strong bid in the last run and did show fighting speed in his last local appearance; draws right outside of one of the main front-runners today and that can give him a tactical advantage; latest half-mile breeze was fair.

Coach Hamilton

Newcomer hails from Dunkirk, who won 2 of 5 and 393K including a pair of G1 stakes placings (his offspring have scored in 3 of 32 debuts); the dam won 6 of 21 and 104K; among the winning siblings is 71K earner Beware the Tiger.

Seven Spot

Came up empty in his unveiling but was bet down to 6 to 1 that day and the early fractions of that event were quick; his sire won multiple G2s and 1.03 million; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 153K earner Untuttable Affair.

Dakota Fred

Firster was sired by Harlington, winner of the G1 Blue Grass and 370K (his progeny have won 4 of 47 initial starts); the dam won 1 of 19 and 90K; this is her only foal to start; recent gate breeze was strong.

Tribunus

Adds blinkers after he was caught very wide in the latest run that featured a repeat winner; doubles in price today which will insure a generous price yet still seems worthy of follow-up because of the equipment change.

Escarto

Beginner was sired by G1 type Bluegrass Type who notched 1.76 million (his descendants have done well first time out, winning 33 out of 254); the dam won 1 of 6 and 16K; sib to 37K earner Sapphire Breeze.

Sunshine King

This colt's sire won 2.24 million including a G2 tally and numerous G1 stakes placings; offspring of Sun King are 5 for 118 as far as winning their first test; the dam never raced; winning siblings include 73K earner Liquid Fire.

Trio of Mischief

She faces the boys today after a wide run against her own gender last month; her sire won a G2 and 998K while the mom won 2 of 8 and 20K; this is her sole foal to start; gets a major weight concession from the entire field.

Is Silver Good

Only minor awards were earned at Arlington but note the steady progression to the workout regimen during the last month; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and 1.25 million; the dam won 2 of 11 and 31K; sib to 135K bankroller Pressure. By Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Gabby's Purim

She didn't make much of an impression in her career debut, but she shows up for a very capable turf barn, and Napravnik sees fit to return to ride; not going to be shocked if she's ready for better this time around.

Kitty's Giant

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; she beat just one to the finish in her career debut, but maybe the move to turf can help this daughter of Giant's Causeway.

Poppy's Dream

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was winless from two starts, and both of her starts were over turf; this filly is a 1/2 to Sporting Holiday (3-29, 129k, including 2 of 23 turf starts for 108k).

Candy Crush

She ran well in her career debut and that led to her being backed to favoritism at second asking; half-sister to stakes winner Seruni (6-26, 351k, including 3 of 15 turf starts for 173k) commands her share of respect.

Ready Player One

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a multiple stakes winning dam who won 7 of 29 starts for 425k, including 4 of 19 turf starts for 244k; 200k purchase is an interesting player while moving to turf and getting Lasix.

Code Name Ava

Half-sister to stakes placed Safe Crossing (5-13, 187k, including 4 of 12 turf starts for 165k) enters this race off of a useful career debut, and if she's ready to take even a small step forward, she'll be tough to deal with.

Union Prayer

She has some early speed to employ but she's going to need to be ready to produce a much improved overall performance if she's to threaten the top contenders in this spot; prefer to look toward others.

Place Card

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; this filly is a 1/2 to stakes winner Trois Aureole (3-6, 107k over turf); she put in a fine run from off the pace in her career debut and she might be looking forward to the move to turf.

Fact File

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; this barn isn't best known for having them ready to fire at first asking, and not going to be surprised if this Juddmonte-homebred shows up with a better try at second asking.

Stock Yard Hen

She deserves another chance to see what she can do racing over turf and this miss is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Buffalo Man (8-23, 505k, including 3 of 12 turf starts for 266k); runner up from latest won next out at Kee on 10/23 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with a 61 Beyer.

Blush Again

Sire wins with approximately 17% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and dam won 3 of 15 starts for 69k, including 1 of 6 turf starts for 25k; this filly is a full to G3 winner Derby Kitten (5-31, 427k, including 3 of 19 turf starts for 188k).

Jannes Paul

Daughter of strong turf influence Giant's Causeway is eligible to be ready for better at second asking and she's out of a stakes winning dam who won 3 of 16 turf starts for 161k; this filly is a 1/2 to Tiz Teresa (1-6, 78k over turf).

Ziptomylu

She took a step in the right direction at second asking with a move to turf and it's interesting to see this half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Kathmanblu (5-18, 584k, including 3 of 11 turf starts for 232k) get Lasix for the first time.

Thunder Wit

She's had a number of starts to show us what she can do, including a start over turf two races back, and she'll have to find a way to take a noticeable step forward in order to have a say in the outcome; she has the look of an outsider. By Brian Pochman

Race 7

Boy's Brother Bob

Indiana invader leaves the statebred ranks behind with the move to CD; has the speed to hold his position from the rail, with the drawback being there appears to be a good deal of pace situated to his outside; still, looking for him to move forward here in what will be his second race since July.

Tobes the Man

He's a quick sort and looking for him to be prominent once again from his inside post; a concern is that that appears to be a good deal of speed in this race; does, however, make a meaningful class move as he has faced steeper on a regular basis since July; but despite the move back to the level that produced his last win, he must again face possible favorite Launch Commander.

Vita Desiderata

He's another with speed in a race that has its share of front-runners; draws to the outside of a few of his pace rivals, but there are others situated to his outside; he is, however, shortening up some in distance, so perhaps he will get more of a stalking kind of trip on the turnback; one of several who can share.

Santo Gato

He's yet another with speed; nearly took them box to wire last out when facing steeper at Kee and for the effort earned what ranks as this field's best last-race Beyer Figure; draws well, to the outside of the bulk of his pace rivals; as for the move back to dirt, note he is a multiple winner on such a surface and has run well in the past at CD; win candidate.

Stew Boy

He used off-the-pace tactics when closing for fourth over seven furlongs last time and he could find himself a little further back in this spot as he's shortening up a furlong to six panels; might get a nice setup behind several to his inside, rivals who could duel; is seeking first win at CD.

Buster Rose

He's making his first start over the main track at Churchill Downs; has had the bulk of his success on dirt, and in his most recent out was a solid third for this $10K price at Ind; the pace of that five and a half furlong sprint was seriously quick, and suspect he could be closer to the leaders in this spot.

Grand Sensation

He's one of the most accomplished members of the field as an 11-time winner; ran well against higher-priced rivals last out and that puts him right in the mix against these; a drawback is that he does not shake nemesis Santo Gato; is returning to Churchill, and note he is a winner over the local main track; pace scenario could be ideal for runner who can close; leading contender.

Launch Commander

He owns a strong collection of Beyer Figures; he also gets a tactical post, with all of his fellow pace rivals drawn to his inside; perhaps the gate will give Bridgmohan options; like that this one is a winner over the local strip, and that he has gone 4-for-10 so far in 2013; choice. By Mary Rampellini

Race 8

She Be Keene

Beyers going in the right direction since the freshening and miss has more speed than she just flashed; winner of the Ellis race repeated in an N1X, then ran out of the money in an optional claimer; connections would love to see her start performing like top kin, Grade 1 winner and over $1.3 million earner She Be Wild; she got her last furlong in :11.85; all systems go.

Miz Minnie Moon

Like this progression; she flashed speed in the debut, then passed horses to be right there at the top of the lane in last; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; she's been handled by a couple of today's foes and got her last 8th of a mile in :13.36 last time.

Core Destination

Youngster came back running and considering she improved bit time in her second career start, she has a chance to move forward today; there are several winners in the family, none were special; decent rally in last but that last furlong was a full second slower than what the rail just pulled off.

Solitary Life

Grand Slam has hit with about 11% of his first-timers in a 924-horse sample; precocious sire took debut at 2, won multiple Grade 1s, earned just under a million; stakes winning 4 for 17 dam won at 2, earned just under $50K; family is solid; 7 of 8 siblings won; 3 banked 6 figures including G3 winner and over $450K earner Temeraine; respect everything from this barn.

Soul of Comete

Love the series of drills since the decent return in last; 7/19 place horse graduated next out in this league, then was out of the money in an N1X; winner 7/19 took a $25K optional next out, then was out of the money twice; she has a right to mature with grace as top kin Munnings took a G2 at 4 and earned nearly $750K; been a bad actress at the gate at times.

Comfort and Joy

Brief speed the last time in town, it took her nearly a month to post the recorded drill since the last race; there is quality in the tree as kin The Pamplemousse took G3s and earned over $200K; needs a turn around today.

Not Be Forgotten

She really wanted no part of the synthetic or the route last time; 5 for 32 dam won at 2, earned nearly $60K; 2 siblings earned over $600K a piece including multiple SW and near $850K earner Hot Storm; route could have helped the stamina and the blood sure is there.

Mema

Bet like a good thing off a nice work tab and her $200K purchase price but miss was caught in the 3 path in an educational run; dam was unraced; 4 of 8 sibs won including G1 winner and millionaire Seattle Smooth; got a feeling we have not seen her A game.

Banshee Warrior

Youngster pressed the sub :22 pace and paid the price; dam out of the money twice; this is her first to race; she has drilled steadily for this and has every right to run better.

Gigglin' Gal

Miss has a nice turn of late foot but it's never simple to concede 8 or 9 lengths and still rally; top Beyer was local and the winner of the 2013 opener won 4 times since including 2 Grade 1s and was 2nd beaten over 4 in Beholder's Distaff victory last Friday; with her style, backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart.

Aireofdistinction

Only one poor effort and she could the off going in that debut; mugged at the break in the turf debut and the place horse that day graduated next out in this league, then was 2nd beaten a half in a $25K optional 10/24 at Belmont; renewed energy in the move on the 27th; note rider is 26% in the last year or so when getting a leg up from Asmussen.

Defoe Street

Seventh beaten over 15 in the cut back effort in April, fans didn't believe that 9/8 effort to the tune of 10-1 and miss never got untracked; the winner the last time in town repeated in an N1X here with an 80 Beyer; backers can hang their hat on a sibling that earned over $250K; look for her late if at all.

Wendy and Her Cats

Off for nearly 2 full years, she ran well in that August effort when the stablemate was out of the money; fact she has been beaten double digits since the return make her a tough ticket to take today; looking elsewhere for a key top horse. By Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Elusive Fate

Just one race traveling today's distance was a last-place finish on turf; she faced much quicker over the CD-main track 2-back when outfinished at shorter; her career-best form has been on CD dirt it's just a matter whether she can handle the added ground today but definitely should appreciate the class relief.

Julmae

Receives a positive 5-pound weight swing off the 6-length loss to Our Domain when outdueled by that one with the added distance here likely not helping either frontrunner; lone CD-dirt start was an 8th-place finish in her 4.5F career debut May, 2012; doing the rain dance; her lone main-track win was in the mud.

Our Domain

Her field-best Beyer was at 2F shorter than today's distance however won latest 57 days ago and 3 of her 4 wins occurred in dirt routes so she can handle racing this far; has not been at her best when racing directly off layoffs in the past and picks up 4 pounds off latest win which are the main issues racing 1st time on CD dirt.

Deal I'm In

Sat just off the pace in her win over the track 2-back and a repeat of that effort would make her hard to handle here; willing to forgive latest on turf racing on the green for the 1st time; worked a CD-dirt bullet for this with 40 days to regroup since latest grass fade.

Plenty O'Toole

Graduated at today's distance on CD dirt while getting much-needed class relief off the G2 loss; the 2-back winner repeated in a WO-105K stakes with an 84 Beyer; her ELP-July win was superb when sitting just off the speed and a good sign that she gets the CD-win rider back for this.

Made to Love Her

Her 2-back loss over the track was not very enciting while exiting a career-low Beyer on turf she is not coming into this event in top form; 1st time racing beyond 7F on dirt while 0-for-3 overall in routes; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 85 in her next-out PRX-79K stakes win.

Donna's Fly Girl

Beat 1 runner home in her only other dirt race which represents a career-low Beyer; won at longer on turf which is her best surface; has worked well on the main track for this however the trainer is 1-for the last-18 with dirt starters; best races are when rallying strongly and has some suspect-speed signed on here to help set up her late punch.

Fog Happens

1st time on dirt after exiting a dull effort on turf vs. the winner who repeated with an 84 Beyer capturing a WO-105K event; worked steadily on dirt for this; the 7-week layoff may help the cause noting her December-grass win was off a similar layoff; the one they all must hold off late.

Molly Morgan

CD-dirt winner at 7F and 1M did not fire her best race 2-back when sent today's distance facing stakes company including the show finisher who Beyered 84 in a next-out PID-100K stakes win; the 3-back runner-up and show finishers both won next out in PID-G2 and IND-102K stakes with 99-90 speed figures.

Trans Continental

1-for-1 on CD dirt and 5-for-11 overall on the main track she scored from just off the pace nearly 1 year ago and finally returns to Louisville dirt off a 113-day layoff; she won here in 2012 off a 71-day absence so the freshening likely helps the cause; the show finisher from last Beyered 83 winning her next 2 starts in IND-optional claimers. By Art Gropper