Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 3, 2013

Race 1

Beautiful Dancer

Must prove it on the conventional and would have liked to have seen some local spins; she was getting late in the debut and now has to go longer; show horse in the win graduated next out, but lost next 4; she has the speed to flee the fence, but not sure she can clear here; she has a shot to grow into his skin as kin to stakes winner and over $400K earner Laysh Laysh Laysh.

Total Talent

Rushed up after bobbling in the debut and 3 exited the debut to graduate next out; pretty snappy drill on the 21st suggests she is feeling pretty good about herself; far too sharp not to take seriously.

Valerie Victoria

Proctor thought enough of her to try the stakes at the shore; forced to steady in last and maybe she did not adore the synthetic; clever blowout last Monday should have her on her toes today; expect much better effort.

Lady Caroline

Two excuses in last; the slop and the company; he's already repaid his $5K purchase price and the place horse in the maiden breaker took a MSW at Indiana next out but with only a 32 Beyer; would still tread lightly.

No Pictures Please

Realistically placed as a $50K purchase price; place horse in last was clear for fun and that runner cashed next out in an $89K stakes; she looms the stalker of the Peery runners; interesting.

Friends Pro

Youngster showed ability from Day One; the 8/14 winner beat N1X foes next out to make it 2 for 2; should sit a nice stalk and pounce trip; contention goes long.

My Lani Rose

Only beat 4 foes for the lone victory; she came back to earth in a thud last time; apparently not much of a work horse; miss has some semblance of speed, but she will still have to come from off the pace; passing.

Almighty Storm

Miss matched her debut Beyer and cashed last time but was losing a little ground late; she was agile enough to overcome the poor start and is drawn where rider does not have to gun early at all costs; note show horse in last was over 3 clear; don't sell too short.

Race 3

Alaskan Bird

Newcomer hails from Birdstone who won multiple G1s and 1.57 million (his progeny have scored in 9 percent of their debuts); the dam won 1 of 4 and 25K; among the winning siblings is 106K earner Broad Stone.

Zee Stone

After a fine first run at Keeneland, he showed no fire on the turf thereafter; her sire won a G1 and 580K; the dam was without a victory in 4 attempts; this is her only foal to compete; fine breeze pattern of late suggests she can rebound now.

Midnight Beauty

Gets huge post position relief here following the first pair of efforts; her sire is Breeders' Cup sprint champ Midnight Lute who notched 2.69 million; the dam never raced; among the winning siblings is 35K earner Beautiful Candy.

Homesick Angel

Decent even initial effort a month ago especially in light on the difficult trip; her sire won 6 of 19 and 612K including a G1 score; the dam won 4 of 10 attempts and 164K; this is her sole foal to make it to the races.

Four Lakes

She rallied strong in her maiden voyage last month; her sire won a G2 and 479K; the dam won her only race and 16K; among the winning siblings is 229K earner Valentine Fever; should appreciate this extension in distance.

Collide

Very fine workout from the gate turned in last week; her sire won a G1 and 337K overall; descendants of Smart Strike have scored in 114 out of 783 initial races; the dam was zero for 2; sib to G1 type Dublino who captured 596K.

Bird Maker

Decent first try where she might have been compromised by the rail slot; her sire won the Belmont Stakes and 1.98 million; the mom won 2 of 6 attempts and 67K; winning siblings include 106K earner Cheechako.

Etna's Anger

She hails from Pulpit, a multiple G2 winner who garnered 728K (his offspring have won 74 out of 613 debuts); the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 377K earner Songster; fine a.m. drill back on 10/12.

Tiz Windy

Made up decent ground in both starts and will benefit if there is a hot early pace here; her sire twice won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 6.42 million; the dam won 3 of 15 and 119K; this is her only foal to compete.

The Conception

Best effort was against claimers 2 back in a route; ignore the subsequent effort over the turf; she gets in light today and could be a late factor if there is a serious meltdown among the front-runners; possible at a price.

Race 4

Clobber

Returns from a freshening in search of the repeat after getting away from a cheaper bunch at this trip at Indiana Downs; gelding moves to the fence while catching a field without a lot of early foot so maybe he's able to secure a decent spot down inside going into the turn; this is the best bunch he's faced and he'll need to improve but he is going the right way; exotics look.

Bethel

Failed to factor against allowance runners while breaking from the Mountaineer fence last time and now he'll drop in for a tag; sophomore was aimed high earlier in the year but wasn't much of a threat in any of those graded stakes heats and his score with winners came over a wet track; have to side with others.

Halon

Drops for the stretchout after again failing to factor sprinting; gelding gets a top pilot for this and maybe he finds himself closer to the front runners early at this extended trip, but it's not as if he did much the lone time he was sent long; looking elsewhere.

Acaffella

Drops to the conditioned ranks following a solid late running effort over synthetic footing at Keeneland in his return from better than 14 months on the shelf; gelding return to work well there last week ad the barn does hit at a nice clip with runners second off the break; his lone dirt spin came against stakes runners and though it didn't look like much, it earned him a number that would handle this bunch; one to beat.

My Native Blues

Switches surfaces in his first local try after failing to factor late off a solid tracking trip at Arlington; gelding did break his maiden on dirt and maybe some moisture in the track would help, but he'll need to step things up from a figure standpoint to go with some of these.

Junebugred

Fresh 4 year old was a sophomore SW, earning a number in just his third career that would blow this bunch away, but better than 21 months and 7 starts later he's yet to get close to it again; he does catch his cheapest field to date in this spot and he did earn that big figure fresh, so he's worth considering.

Key to Fame

Beat limited winners from well out of it early last time and now he'll get on a dirt surface for the initial time; don't know that he's going to love the footing and the pace scenario is a question so have to side against the repeat as this geldig steps up the class ladder.

Inflation Target

Outside drawn gelding offered little after the rough break first time off this barn's claim at Keeneland; maybe the drop helps and he did show solid sprint speed before fading 2 back at Saratoga so he should be able to secure a good spot up close from the bell in this one; contender.

Race 5

Dun Won

Offspring of Dunkirk, who was twice G1 stakes-placed while earning 393K, have scored in 3 of 32 debuts; the dam won 6 of 60 and 134K; among the winning siblings is 81K earner Kiss of Thunder; mild breeze pattern on view.

Ready to Lead

Although this is her ninth attempt in these ranks, she has shown decent early speed at times; may appreciate the turnback in distance and the return to the claiming ranks; will offer generous betting value despite the descent.

Discreet Kiss

Newcomer hails from G1 type Discreet Cat who captured 1.69 million and whose progeny have won 23 out of 168 initial races; the dam involved was unraced and there are no winning siblings to highlight.

Legomyborrego

Very sharp in the last placing and in all 3 of her attempts, she has lost serious ground; can settle in behind some of the inside speed today and perhaps work out a better journey; worth some follow-up because of the strong trainer/jockey team.

True Kinection

Sports an average work tab but descendants of Yes It's True, who won a G1 and 1.08 million, have done well first time out winning 91 out of 629 such attempts; the mom won 5 of 37 and 150K; this is her only foal to compete.

Parc Celeste

Commendable first effort at gigantic odds despite the wide trip; her sire won the G2 Clark and 2.58 million; the dam was unraced and this is her only foal to start; can upgrade with the surface switch and scheduled Lasix addition.

Trick My Ride

Doubles in price following game effort to capture the place at Indiana; her sire won a G1 and 1.02 million while the dam won 1 of 17 attempts and 44K; among the winning siblings is 68K earner Number One.

Lola Getz

No threat in her unveiling last month but had to deal with the outside slot that day; her sire won 4 of 27 and 257K; the dam won 1 of 18 and 5K; this is her sole foal to make it to the starting gate.

Honey Train

Encountered trouble first time out at the special weight level; her sire won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and 1.25 million in total; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 75K earner Determined Yankee; can upgrade suddenly over a fast racing surface.

Borrowed Freedom

One of the primary speeds today even from this wide point of departure; she showed much more stamina in the last run after getting into an immediate duel; any late scratches to the left would enhance her chances here; might be overlooked in the wagering.

Dash to the Flash

Newcomer was sired by multiple G1 victor Langfuhr who annexed 698K and whose offspring have been 10 percent winners first time out; the dam won 2 of 12 and 131K; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Curb Appeal

Down a notch after displaying improved early foot in the last assignment; her sire won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and 1.26 million; the dam won 1 of 6 and 17K; there are no winning siblings to mention; may change tactics today and benefit.

Race 6

Above the Curve

Over 3 times as many slices as wins makes him a tough on top only ticket; cozy slot, but he was out of the money the last time he broke from the rail; apparently not much of a work horse, he fits in the Beyer department, rates legit look in all the slots.

Doublefour

Try to get a good look at him on the track after he was eased in last; with his style and no speed, he can be his own worst enemy at times; 0 for 7 locally and he was losing ground late in the second in the 2012 closer; beaten nearly 11 in the last return effort; would be careful here.

Touch Me Quick

Gelding has run well here without winning locally; it looks like he is racing himself into shape; tactical speed will give him first run on the deep closers but he will likely be chasing early on; another section?

Brother Stuart

Must proved it locally, but he has repeated beaten higher-priced foes; 6th finisher in last won for this price next out and the place horse took a $10K claimer at Keeneland; he only beat 4 foes last time and the pace should be legit; that should help the closing cause; look for him late if at all.

Proud Image

Proven vs. tougher, toss the race two back and note he stumbled at the break in last; he's trained forwardly for this and the fact he won his debut gives him a chance to fire fresh; in good hands, the drop can't hurt; look out.

Bail Bondsman

Beat higher priced foes the last time in town and note she show horse was over 4 clear; bothered early when marooned out in post 11; Arroyo got a chance to figure him out and he has the speed to be very dangerous from the get go.

Burr Jimmy

Nice bit of training to have this guy set in only the 2nd start after the extended layoff; excuse of slop two back but he has the arch rival in the rail foe to deal with right back; barn has spotted them great all year but backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the leaders cave in.

Cold Feet

Seven and he still is competing; proven for the price here and he was boosted a bit when the 6/29 place horse cashed next out in an $8K optional and was 2nd beaten a neck in a $7500 claimer here 9/22; could see him sitting a nice stalk and pounce trip; rates long look in all the slots.

Arch of Titus

Drops a ton today, but he has to prove it outside of conditioned claiming land; he did make the huge middle move two back but then reality set in the final furlongs; pro could also be compromised by the slot today; needs to show more.

Race 7

Arriving

Showed some improved early lick at Keeneland but still didn't have enough to factor late; he'll move to the fence in his return to dirt and the speed drawn to his immediate outside could give him all he can handle early; have to side with others on the win end.

Run With Honor

Makes his first start since the Fairgrounds meet last winter where he showed some ability; colt has been working pretty well here for a solid return barn and all 4 of his sibs are winners; expect he'll come back running and prove to be a big threat.

Sneaky Blowout

Twice beaten chalk drew outside for his first off the barn's claim at Keeneland and the wide trip from there did him in; colt did make a nice run going a bit longer 2 back at Saratoga and his effort first out at Gulfstream earlier in the year was pretty solid; with a sharp drill in tow and the move inside he's a contender.

Gifted Ruler

Wasn't beaten much first out at Keeneland and he did make his run in a wide spot in that one; he'll get a top journeyman pilot for his first crack on dirt and he is kin to 2 main track sprint winners as well as 2 time G3 SW turfer and 361K earner Yankee Gentleman so there is some ability in the family; giving him the nod to move forward off his debut and beat these to the wire.

To the Stars

First start since the summer wasn't much though he did have some trouble in that slightly longer synthetic heat; gelding could be tighter with that one behind him but he's yet to run particularly fast on dirt; have to side with others for the top spot.

Tap the Admiral

Hasn't been close in any of his 3 spins on different surfaces; he did work ok over the training track last week for this, but there's not a lot to suggest he'll be able to step with the best this bunch has to offer; longshot again.

Iamdonewithmylawer

Beaten Keeneland chalk wasn't far off the winner at the wire after tracking a solid clip; his lone dirt spin wasn't very much and his drill over the training track last week didn't suggest he's up to taking a big step forward in his return to the footing; he's shown he can run some, though, so maybe he's able to get in the mix for a minor share.

Pagets

He's shown speed but little else in each of his 2 well spaced starts; gelding should be better with his return behind him and getting off the fence can't hurt, but the presence of other speed won't make things easy on him; G1 SP, G2 SW dam dropped 4 overseas winners.

Keep It Together

Sire gets just 4% winners from his first out runners and he's the first foal to race out of an unraced dam; worktab doesn't offer many clues, but the barn boasts a nice winning percentage from limited starters on the year.

Franklin

Sire hits with 14% of his debut runners and the dam was winless from 3 starts prior to dropping 4 winners from 5 foals to race including local G3 SW and 777K earner Thiskyhasnolimit whose 6 wins included 2 sprints; barn can certainly fire right out of the box.

Tarpy's Surprise

Had some trouble against claimers first time out here 5 weeks back but wasn't beaten all that much and has since returned to work ok; barn does a decent job with its second out runners but this guy will be tackling a tougher bunch in this spot; dam won 5 sprints and she dropped a 4 time sprint winner so maybe this guy moves forward some.

Valdina Saint

Outside drawn colt was beaten chalk in each of his well spaced starts, but he returned with a big pace effort here last time and just failed to hold on; his interim drills say he remains on his toes for this one and Rosie will stick with him; move to this slot should allow him to work out a tracking trip and if he settles he could prove tough to hold off; one to beat.

Nordiste

AE showed brief early foot before backing out of it at a big price first out at Keeneland; maybe he benefits from the effort and he is kin to several minor winners, but he's got a lot of improving to do to step with these if he draws in.

Perfect Spot

AE tried the lawn in each of his 3 starts and did little running in those spins; interim synthetic move wasn't much and he could just plain get outrun on the turn back to this sprint trip; he's kin to 2 main track winners but can only watch him here.

Race 8

No Free Ride

She's yet to run a race that is strong enough to suggest that she can threaten the top contenders in this spot and her one start over turf wasn't an encouraging performance; she has the look of an outsider.

Slander

She showed up with one of her better efforts in quite some time when getting the job done over the synthetic surface at Keeneland in her latest outing and like to see that she has run well over turf in the past; runner up from latest won next out at Kee on 10/19 going 7f vs. starter alw. rivals with a 72 Beyer.

Luce Mia

She's 1-for-1 over turf but she earned that win against 7.5k N2L claimers at Ellis; she's another who is going to need to produce a performance that is much stronger than anything she's done to this point in time if she's to have a say in the outcome.

Fine Lookin Lady

Late running type has outrun her odds in her two starts since moving into this barn and her best effort can place her in the hunt against these; interesting to see Albarado get the call for her first start over the Churchill Downs turf course.

Charming She Is

Stakes placed mare sports the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here and she's going to appreciate meeting up with a softer bunch this time around; her lack of early speed is a concern, but she's clearly capable of getting the job done in a spot like this on her best day.

Black Tulip

She might appreciate getting back over turf after a couple of synthetic surface starts but she's going to need to improve over her recent form if she's planning on putting any pressure on the top contenders in here.

Kay War

Sire wins with approximately 18% of his turf starters and dam won 5 of 29 starts for 101k, including 1 of 8 turf starts for 17k; the move to turf might agree with this runner but she must take a step forward in order to contend.

Ambitoness

A little concerned by the sub par performance in her latest outing but she's getting back over turf and she boasts seven wins from 19 starts over grass; she has the look of a top contender in this spot and her connections see fit to call upon the hot-riding Lanerie.

Demure Halo

She's a little interesting while getting back over turf and making her first start for a new barn that has done pretty well with horses right after a claim from a limited number of starters; winner from latest won next out at Mnr on 10/5 going 1m vs. 20k OPC's with a 75 Beyer.

Goshen Hawk

Her best effort doesn't appear to be strong enough to get the better of this field and her one start over turf wasn't one of her better performances; prefer to look toward others.

Honey Hues

She's out of a dam who won 4 of 12 turf starts for 69k, and this miss has been very sharp in winning both of her turf starts; willing to give her the benefit of the doubt for the sub par performance in her latest outing when considering that it was her first start back from a layoff and over a sloppy surface; must respect.

Get Runnin'

Seven-time winner has gotten the job done in four of seven turf starts and she owns the positional speed to help her manage a comfortable trip after breaking from an outside post; however, her best effort doesn't appear to quite measure up to the top contenders in here.

Wild Swava

She needs to see a scratch from the main body of the race to draw in but she deserves credit for the sharp winning performance she recorded in her first route attempt in her latest outing; Napravnik has won with 52 of 185 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Fleet Dyna

She was in good form prior to a sub par performance in her latest outing, but that was against tougher and she does look like a better fit with this bunch; not going to give her the nod for the top spot, but a minor award isn't out of the question.

The Queen's Hat

Relatively lightly raced 6-year-old is another in here who is going to need to find a way to dial it up a few notches if she's to have a say in the outcome; she's three deep on the AE list and has the look of an outsider.

Wanta Go

She's been on top of her game in recent starts but this does look like it can prove to be a tough step up in class for her; in the unlikely event that she draws in, a tough outside post will add to the level of difficulty.

Race 9

Not Again Nancye

Would prefer wet footing although her CD-fast track 47-1 exacta finish was a good effort and worked a bullet for this; she needs a quick-gate break to produce best finish which was lacking in her KEE loss a career-low Beyer speed figure 1st time on synthetic.

Hot Ember

Light Beyers on display including her muddy-win slipping though the claim box for last; was purchased from the debut she has been a new runner since blinkers were added 3 races ago; clearly has to pass the class test while making her 3rd start in 33 days.

Brilliant Rescue

Front-running debut win represents a field-best Beyer but has to deal with the speedy Cookie from the gate while meeting winners for the 1st time which is often any runner's toughest assignment; steady-morning workouts on display with unlimited upside.

Pretty Petal

The graduation win suggests she will not have any issues adding a half furlong for this; displayed immediate talent by earning the show money in her debut vs. the runner-up finisher who came right back to win; the 2-back runner-up finisher graduated next out in a DEL-MSW event with a 65 Beyer.

Weekend Wish

Claimed for this noting her lone dirt start was a good effort in the debut; best Beyers have been at longer than this which is the main issue; can she get up in time while giving 3-year-olds weight?; beat the 3-back show runner a next-out 86 Beyer KD-alw. winner.

Anusara

Style change in latest when rallying well from 6th while her CD debut win and 2nd-career start suggest she may have an issue getting today's 7F; the June runner-up finisher Beyered 90 in her next-out SAR-alw. win; wish the CD workout for this was more eye catching.

Terfaashah

Lone-dirt race was her debut win over the show finisher who Beyered 64 in a next-out HAW-MSW win; rallied in last like she wanted to run all day in a race she likely needed off the 53-day layoff; would have to up her speed figures to a brand new level to beat these.

Assets of War

Best Beyer was posted at longer but on CD dirt; she fired very well in latest when screaming out for more distance and gets it here; debut win was over the CD main track; the 2-back winner repeated with a 76 Beyer then made it 3 in a row with a 74 taking IND-optional claimers.

Fanfare

Nearly 10 weeks since the eye-catching maiden breaker over the track but must note on her form seems her very-best efforts have been 2nd and 3rd starts off the layoff; tests winners for the 1st time noting her loss 3-back to Moonlight Caper and gives that one 4 extra pounds for this.

Moonlight Caper

Primed for this at longer but a great sign that her best Beyer speed figures were posted on CD dirt; beat the 3-back show runner who Beyered 69 in her next-out win then repeated with a 79 taking an ELP-optional claimer; wish she fared better in May at 7F; the winner and runner-up that day Beyered 77-69 in next-out CD-MSW and optional-claiming wins.

On High Alert

Has never been this far while the 2 starts vs. winners did not give the impression that 7F was going to be her best distance; the debut win looks bettter since the runner-up finisher Beyered 57 in her next-out IND-MSW victory; main concern is she hasn't been able to race back to that debut-speed figure since.

Cookie

Been quick from the gate in last pair posting back-to-back Beyer Tops; has to deal with Brilliant Rescue from the gate and if they end up in a speed duel it clearly helps the closers; the added furlong does not add to the appeal; has been working well on CD dirt and hopes to somehow get loose on the lead.