Churchill Downs
Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 28, 2013
Race 1
| Larissa's Love |
| Projects to battle Norma's Dream for the front while trying to break a 3-0-0-0 record on conventional dirt; she has been superior on grass while today is 1st blinkers hoping to carry her speed longer; no stamina since scoring a career-best Beyer speed figure racing up top on IND green; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 79 in a next-out KEE allowance win. |
| Guava Girl |
| Projects for an ideal trip sitting just off the speed while saving ground from an inside draw; field-best Beyer was her last win in August when stalking a hot pace on synthetic which is the surface of all 4 wins; the 2-back winner repeated in a CD-25K claimer with an 84 Beyer; her 2 conventional-dirt defeats were simply not her best races. |
| Seamstress |
| Projects for an ideal trip stalking the gate speed speed while saving ground from an inside draw; seems set to move forward 2nd time back off a 50-day absence; main knock is the 0-for-11 dirt record with 5 minor awards she often races well in defeat; the 2-back winner repeated in a KEE-starter alw. with a 70 Beyer. |
| Sluiceway |
| Figures far back during the early stages and hopes for a pace meltdown; rallied in latest like more distance would be right up her alley and owns her career-best Beyer going long; claimed off her lowest Beyer since July noting both wins occurred sprinting; needs a speed figure boost to contend on the class raise. |
| Jacksoncountyflash |
| Late runner needs Norma's Dream and Larissa's Love to set a wicked pace which would enhance her late punch; saved best for last romping over IND claimers; 44-day absence for a high-percentage fresh trainer but this is her 1st time trying CD dirt which is the main concern. |
| Hope Restored |
| Projects to race midpack then make 1 run; last dirt victory was on the lead and with the light-weight assignment here may flash better tactical speed from the gate; 67 days since claimed off a favored loss making it now 0-for-7 on wet-main tracks; best Beyer on turf and scored 3 back on the green defeating the show runner who posted a 61 speed figure in her next-out MNR-5K claiming win. |
| Citi Point |
| Last win was right on the lead but has Norma's Dream and Larissa's Love to contend with from the gate; the long layoff produced a fresh-exacta finish but she posted very-light Beyers in recent losses including 3-back when defeated by the show runner who posted a 67 speed figure in her next-out MNR alw. win. |
| Norma's Dream |
| Last race for this pricre tag was a win; projects to race on or near the lead with Larissa's Love; 69 days since dueled into defeat at shorter; the 2-back Mile victory looks better since the runner-up and show finishers Beyered 68-67 in next-out CD-starter alw. wins; the CD-main track 0-for-9 record does not help the confidence level to back on the win end. |
| Smarty Party |
| Projects to race midpack while trying to save as much ground possible from the widest draw; her last win was September, 2012, at 1M on TP synthetic rallying from 5th when producing a career-best speed figure; she is currently 1-for-7 with blinkers on but 0-for-6 since winning 1st time with the hood on. |
Race 2
| Hey Court Lady |
| She split the field in her career debut last out and like that she showed some speed in the race; also note she had some trouble at the start; the out came over a synthetic surface and she now makes her first dirt start and it comes over her home track of CD; one of several who can share. |
| Killer Edge |
| She showed marked improvement in her last start, when she moved from sprint to route-racing; she was prominent for much of the trip and finished second over a mile and a sixteenth; cuts back to one turn, but will be racing over a mile and like several, seems in line for at least a piece. |
| Makin Mo Love |
| She cuts back to one turn after showing speed around two and that can be a winning move for a horse; she also owns what ranks as this field's best career Beyer Figure, earned last out at Kee; tough not to respect her consistent nature, and while she is stepping up in claiming price, she's been favored in her last two starts and could be again in this spot; win candidate. |
| Bettina Brugge |
| She moves back to the maiden claiming ranks after facing maiden allowance foes in her most recent start and when last seen racing for a tag she fired the best race of her young career; the effort came at a mile but on turf, so it will be interesting if the class move helps her translate her form to dirt; pedigree agrees with the main track and she will be second Lasix. |
| Candiebelle |
| She ran well at a distance similar to this one last out, when third over seven furlongs; has the look of a runner on the improve and could show the way here, or perhaps track Bettina Brugge; either way, she appears to be a win candidate. |
| Speedy Kitten |
| She returned from a freshening last out and ran a fine race, running third in the same maiden claiming route as Makin Mo Love; has reason to move forward in her second start back, and has class appeal as one who has spent the bulk of her career racing against maiden allowance rivals; a question is dirt, but like that she has an age edge on most of these as she is 4. |
| Roommate (BRZ) |
| She was second last out in a race that has become a key one; the third-place finisher returned in her next start to take a $25K claimer at Haw with a Beyer Figure of 60, and the sixth-place finisher, Mizzilli, a maiden allowance at Beu, with a Beyer of 46; sharpened skills for turn back with recent half-mile moves and looks like one to fear in the lane. |
Race 4
| Bad Bob |
| Wonder if that muddy effort in Indy just knocked the starch out of him?; note a ton of speed in here and he did flash zip before but he ll have to hustle to outgun Buck James early; family is solid; there is juvenile and route success in the family and kin Arch Rebel banked nearly $500K; needs a total reversal of fortune. |
| Bigger Picture |
| Badge of Silver about 11% with juvenile firsters in a 102-runner sample; sire took only start at 2, won multiple G2s, banked over a million; 1 for 9 dam cashed routing and an older horse; all 4 siblings won; two won at 2 including a debut winner, 2 siblings cashed long on dirt and top earner Gung Ho took a stakes, won nearly $250K; this guy looks live. |
| Camp Meeting |
| Overmatched when off slow in the debut, at least he got experienced at a mile now; dam took one route, didn't go at 2; this is her first to race; toss anything from a $42% barn at own risk and note this rider is 8 for 13 for Richard this meet; look out. |
| Shelby Dean |
| More realistically placed as a $10K purchase; 2 for 18 dam won at 2, was sprint only; lone half bro to race lost 3 times; would think long and hard before taking too short a number. |
| The Duck |
| Maybe he just wants to hear his feet rattle; 2 for 17 won routing and also at 2; several multiple race winners in the tree; a couple won at 2 and kin It Happened Again won stakes routing, banked nearly $650K; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one. |
| Rojo Inferno |
| Took cash on the drop and even though he improved, he sure didn't scare anybody; two excuses in the Indy finale of the off track and the poor start; could hang on for a slice here. |
| Buck James |
| Valid excuses of the off going in the first pair, note he was clear for fun last time; dam took one sprint, didn't go at 2; there is juvenile success in the clan and kin Black N Beauty won at 2, took 3 routes, banked over $260K; the Buck might NOT stop here. |
| Northern Empire |
| Must deal with arch-rival on the direct inside again but would expect rider to be aggressive from the sound of the bell; he does seem to be approaching the proper level. |
| Escarto |
| Totally disrespected on the tote at 100-1 as colt lost all chance when he reared at the break; one for 6 dam cashed at 2 sprinting; both siblings won; neither won at 2 or in dirt route; trainer can pop at a price at times. |
Race 5
| Destrehan |
| Turns back to sprint after getting used in pace going long in his local return; sophomore's 2 scores each came at one turn and he does look to get some pace to run into, but he hasn't run as fast as some of these have and will need to catch some breaks to contend for more than a small slice of this one. |
| Salt Free |
| Gelding drops in half in claiming price after tiring from his pace efforts while making his local return; like most front runners, he fares best when able to make the lead and with the move inside he may well prove to be the quickest of this bunch from the bell; added half panel is a concern, but the price should be ok off his recent poor tries and they'll probably have to come and get him to win. |
| My Name Is Hebe |
| Wasn't beaten much on the turn back to this sprint trip in his local debut a couple of weeks back; gelding has the tactical foot to secure a decent spot early and though he's not the most consistent sort he does have a right to run better second time over the local main track; consider. |
| Chief Gaga |
| Tries better while cutting back to sprint after failing to hit the board on the rise to the N3L level in his local return; gelding beat an overmatched bunch sprinting at Mountaineer 2 starts back, but he'll need to show up with a lot more to contend against this bunch; barn boasts some recent luck shortening them up, but have to pass on him. |
| Eagle Soul |
| Wired limited winners while working hard every step of the way when dropped in price for his second local spin; presence of speed drawn down inside won't make it easy on this guy if he wants to show speed, but he did break his maiden first out from a tracking spot; still, off what he's run of late don't know that he's fast enough to threaten on the win end. |
| Hanuman |
| Gelding caught slop on the cut back last time and did very little running; his prior couple of local efforts going longer weren't bad and with some pace to run at he could find himself with more late kick but the strip will need to stay dry to warrant him consideration. |
| E Wald |
| He's been away from the races for 16 months and now he'll return for a new outfit; gray wasn't close in either of his 2 dirt starts and his late running style doesn't figure to bode well for him at the shortest trip he's tried since his debut run over 2 years ago; just watching the comebacker. |
| Belief System |
| Sophomore moves in to face older conditioned claimers while cutting back to sprint off the 8 panel fade here a couple of weeks back; his effort at the local trip 3 starts back was excellent, though, and he has the early foot to press the issue from the bell from this great stalking draw; looks like they'll have this New York bred to beat. |
Race 6
| Goodnight Diva |
| Last win when rallying from 6th; he seems to own enough gate speed to be in the hunt from the gate vs. these then hopes to wear them down in deep stretch; was claimed off a troubled loss and has plenty to prove with winners compiling a 4-0-0-0 slate since the maiden breaker; the 3-back runner-up posted a 73 Beyer speed figure in his next-out KEE-50K-claiming win. |
| Great Call |
| Try to catch me; he looks loose on the lead with Siegfried Line seemingly the one he will have to fend off in the early stages then hold off the closers; trying to bounce back off latest loss where he beat one runner and lost to 2 of these but the race looks better since the show runner Beyered 78 in his next-out CD-$7,500-claiming win; beat the 2-back runner-up who scored next out in a MNR-MSW event with a 61. |
| Expensive Candy |
| Late runner would need a pace meltdown to score; should be able to save every inch of ground here then maske 1 run; 1st time with winners off the upset score loving the wet footing and likely would need similar off-going surface to post another upset. |
| Benergy |
| Lone win was a rally from 7th on CD grass at 1 Mile; the 2-0-0-0 dirt mark is the issue posting the field's best Beyer on CD turf back in 2011; the 2 dirt starts were 6th and 8th-place finishes in 2011 on GP dirt vs. MSW rivals; the winner from last repeated in a CD-15K claimer with a 75 Beyer; he defeated the 4th and 7th-place finishers from last who Beyered 81-49 in next-out KEE-starter alw. and CD-$7,500-claiming wins. |
| Alexander Thegreat |
| Lone win was right on the lead December, 2011, on an FG-wet-main track at 1M and 70 yards but has Siegfried Line and Great Call to beat out of that gate early which seems like a tall task; exits his lowest Beyer since April and hasn't been able to crack a CD-dirt exacta yet during career. |
| Artillery |
| Likely to be last in the early stages then hopes Siegfried Line and Great Call duel each other into defeat; lone win at today's distance over the track but is 6-0-0-0 since; latest was a slight wakeup off the long layoff when rallying; others appeal more. |
| Siegfried Line |
| Was claimed off a high-win percentage trainer which is not a good-win angle; last victory was right on the lead but must outbreak Great Call who projects to own the best-gate speed in this event; claimed off the maiden breaker at shorter fading the only time sent 8.5F or longer during career. |
| Northern Luck |
| Last win was sitting right off the speed and figures to be chasing Siegfried Line and Great Call wide; career-best Beyer on the grass but it was not a strong effort with a 4-0-0-0 mark facing winners; widest drawn for this after breaking poorly again. |
Race 7
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Race 8
| Evandear |
| Just missed on the drop to this level in her local return earlier in the month and now she'll shorten up a half panel; first part of the coupling has speed and that should help her secure the fence on the slight cut back; it's been a while since that last score, so it may be best to limit her use to underneath in exotics here. |
| Lucky Mary G. |
| Sophomore tries older again after fading from her pace efforts at 7 panels last out; cut back to the trip of her local maiden score should help and the quick breaker should at least be involved from the bell today. |
| Givmethreestepsmr |
| Tries better after besting limited winners in her local return; filly broke her maiden at this trip and she should get some pace to run at in this spot; barn does a decent job with its runners going second off the break. |
| Summon the Rain |
| She's another last out winner who will step up to face a tougher bunch in this spot; expecting she'll have a little more to offer late at this shorter trip and she's run ok sprinting in the past; one to keep an eye on in the lane. |
| Hot Ember |
| Cuts back to sprint after tiring from her pace efforts at the level last week; she ran better sprinting at Indiana Downs earlier this fall but she hasn't run fast enough to factor with the best that these gals have to offer; longshot. |
| Timefadesthepages |
| Wasn't much of a threat in either of her last 2 at Fairmount and her local spin around this time last year wasn't anything great; she'll need to improve in order to have a say in the outcome in this spot; have to side with others. |
| Regal Joanne |
| Saw her number put up after just failing to get there on the surface switch at Keeneland and now she'll move into the conditioned ranks while talking older; filly has solid tactical foot and each of her first 2 scores did come on dirt so the move back to this footing should help; she'll lure Leparoux and figures to prove a big threat. |
| Songlyrics |
| Speedy gray lost her best shot when stuck in a wide spot in her turf spin against allowance runners here a couple of weeks ago; she should appreciate the move back to dirt and be prominent from the outset, but other speed may make things tough for her to go on late here. |
| Luv in Speight |
| Other half of the entry is offered for sale for the first time while returning from the brief break; filly didn't do much in either of her cracks with winners but she did get caught arguing in a wide spot at Indiana Downs and maybe she just didn't want the lawn 2 starts back; draws outside again but at a decent price she's worth a look at this level. |
| Silver Strike |
| Beaten chalk in her first off the barn's claim gives the level another shot and does have a right to be tighter second back from the break; number she earned in the score 2 back jumps off the page and she's run pretty fast in the past as well; big shot to bounce back today. |
Race 9
| Bradester |
| Runner has some semblance of speed but there are others with designs on the lead today; barn continues to win races in bunches, bullet move last Friday screams off the canvas and colt should be fit enough by now; shorter trip could also work to his advantage. |
| Braveman |
| Connections shot for the rainbow in the stakes last time but that didn't work out well; runner basically got good sprinting on the synthetic for about 2 weeks; there should be a legit pace to try to close into; look for him late if at all. |
| Ray's Away |
| Gelding has a shot to show more speed on the stretch out; note 9/29 show horse cashed next out beating Braveman on the grass; runner has a shot to get the trip as kin Tactical Solution was a route only runner in the minor leagues; needs a rebound effort. |
| Quiet Man |
| The spotty race record is a concern; half of his wins have been local and note the 9/21 place horse won next out in a $37.1K NC allowance at Mountaineer, then repeated there in a $130K stakes with a 99 Beyer on 11/2; versatility could be his best asset; still tough to adore off the last fiasco. |
| Strike One |
| Freshened since the professional win in last; the 9/6 winner repeated in a $40K Indy optional, then won again in a $150K stakes with a 102 Beyer last Saturday; place horse 9/6 took an N1X here and also won another here at this very level with a 93 Beyer; he has a right to have a nice career as kin to Grade 3 winner and over $900K earner Summer Doldrums; proven fresh, barn has spotted them just fine this year; can't be counted out. |
| A. P. Indian |
| He's fired every time, like the way he was inching toward the winner in last and Exploring came out of the dead heat on 9/6 to repeat in a $40K claimer with a 78 Beyer; runner has more speed than he flashed in last and he proved last time he can rate and rally; respect. |
| Band of Joy |
| Would love to see this guy find that killer instinct; lone sibling to race took one sprint in his career; dam was sprint only but 5 of sire's 7 wins were routes; would expect rider to try to steal it but you get the feeling if runner is looked in the eye, he'll blink. |
| Maybesomaybenot |
| Best when sent along but there is a good amount of speed in this race; sire took a Grade 2 routing, dam took one sprint in her career, but the lone sibling to win won 7 times, all routes; one angle to think about: this rider is 23% for Maker in the |
Race 10
| Delta Golf Alpha |
| This colt has a good deal of turf on the bottom of his pedigree, but he's also had his chances to show us what he can do, and he's been beaten by a number of today's rivals in his recent starts; feel that a minor award is probably the ceiling. |
| Avanzare |
| Sire wins with approximately 9% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; respect his connections but this does look like a tough assignment for a firster. |
| Evening Muse |
| Sire wins with approximately 5% of his first-time starters and with approximately 8% of his turf starters, and multiple graded stakes winning dam won 9 of 19 starts for 625k, including 3 of 4 turf starts for 177k; this filly is a 1/2 to G1 stakes placed Miss Mittagong (3-21, 211k, including 1 of 7 turf starts for 75k). |
| March Reward |
| His latest performance wasn't one of his better efforts and maybe this colt just prefers a firmer turf course to work over; it might be worth noting the presence of Castanon aboard another in here, but he loses nothing in being reunited with Lanerie. |
| Grand Giant |
| Don't like to see that he's seeking his first career win in his 15th career start, but maybe he can be given the benefit of the doubt a little bit when considering that this is only his fourth start in the Maker barn; regardless, prefer to limit him to a spot underneath in the exotics. |
| Northeast Bound |
| Have to respect the improvement he showed when placed over turf at second asking and keep in mind that was as a 3-year-old in March; he's out of a dam who won 3 of 4 turf starts for 73k, and he's a 1/2 to minor stakes winner Valiant Anna (6-10, 129k over turf) and Bankellie (2-8, 57k over turf). |
| Adranos |
| He's a full brother to multiple graded stakes winner Adriano (4-14, 728k, including 3 of 9 turf starts for 418k) and a half-brother to G3 stakes placed Gold d'Oro (5-21, 232k, including 4 of 17 turf starts for 186k), and this colt put together an impressive performance in his career debut when finishing 2nd; Courtlandt Farms-homebred commands plenty of respect. |
| Iamdonewithmylawer |
| Have to be at least mildly concerned when seeing that he's making his first start beyond 6 1/2f, but he ran well the last time he was seen racing over turf, and with the addition of blinkers, he might be looking to try to take it right at this field; third-place finisher from latest returned to win next out here on 11/20 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with an 83 Beyer. |
| Napa Valley (BRZ) |
| He's shown a little something in his first two career starts and he goes out for a barn that has a solid reputation for the work that they do with young/lightly raced horses in route races; feel that there's still some upside to consider in this direction. |
| To the Stars |
| Maybe he's just at his best racing over the synthetic surface at Keeneland, but his one turf attempt prior to this wasn't a bad performance, and he deserves another chance to see what he can do racing over the green stuff; he exits the same race as today's rival Iamdonewithmylawer and the third-place finisher from that race returned to win next out here on 11/20 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with an 83 Beyer. |
| Giant Diamond |
| She needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to draw in, but it is worth noting the wagering support that she attracted in her career debut back in April, and she will be racing with Lasix today; Davis has won with 20 of 68 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013. |
| Main Spring |
| Sire wins with approximately 19% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 14 starts for 97k, including 2 of 8 turf starts for 84k; this gelding might not mind getting an opportunity to see what he can do racing over turf. |
| Came to Believe |
| He's going to need to show up with his best performance to date to threaten the top contenders in here but this is only his second turf attempt and he's a half to multiple G1 winner overseas, Les Arcs (12-42, 959k). |
| Stevis Man |
| Sire is 0-for-6 with his turf starters and dam won 3 of 14 starts for 28k, including 0-for-2 over turf; he improved his position after a poor start in his career debut, but an extreme outside post awaits, and turf and distance are concerns. |
Race 11
| Flashy American |
| Freshened after failing to kick in the Zenyatta, she did get a boost when the winner that day parlayed to victory in the BC Distaff; miss likes this layout, but this race is a far cry from winning a $111K stakes with a garden trip; nothing wrong with hitting the exacta locally in 5 of 6; slight improvement and she will be in the thick of it. |
| Ice Cream Silence |
| Fully extended for the lone win this year and it may have zapped her; she did graduate off the layoff and she has drilled forwardly for this including the bullet last Friday; miss flashed her gameness in the lone win this year but it was against only 5 and on the synthetic; would be careful here. |
| Fiftyshadesofhay |
| The class is there off the Black Eyed Susan and she may not have adored the slop last time; the trip is well within the realm and love the work pattern coming to this race accentuated by the best of 72 bullet move last Sunday; the Alabama winner took the Grade 1 Beldame next out, then was dull in the BC Distaff; miss has shown the ability to perform at a number of different venues; the one to beat. |
| Owl Moon |
| Romans looking for that d j vu feeling as his trainee Afleeting Lady won this race last year with a 92 Beyer; that runner was coming off a win in a Grade 3 in New York when she recorded a 94 Beyer; 3 kind of spaced out works since the last effort as the 6th different pilot takes the reins; she gets the acid test here. |
| Magic Hour |
| Not thrilled with the local slate; note she got away with very moderate splits in the last sloppy score and the pace should be much move lively here; show horse in the Ellis finale took a G2 at Presque Isle, then proved that was no fluke by winning the BC F and M Sprint with a 107 Beyer; could see her pushing the pace, not convinced she ll be around at the end. |
| My Option |
| Only beat 5 in the last win and she was taxed to do it; she has not been able to duplicate that Beyer since; must respect her consistency and she is in good hands; proven at the trip, the sprint prep last time should have her fairly sharp too; Illinois-bred has showed her grit, she s a fighter in the lane; rates upset glance. |
| Wine Princess |
| Purchased last month, this will be this runner's final start; connections were weighing options with this miss but when Believe You Can retired, miss ends up here; lone win this year came in the optional claimer against only 3 foes and she has lost ground in the lane in every race since; miss was 4 clear in last but you get the feeling she'll have aim but will not be able to take advantage. |
| Molly Morgan |
| Toss Keeneland finale; wrong surface; miss seemed in a good spot condition wise the, just lost interest late; note runners in the company line were both pretty clear in last; out of the money at 50-1 in the other Graded effort; that s a hard line to get over considering the class in this field. |
| Don't Tell Sophia |
| This is one talented mare; she has showed she can rally into fast and slow splits and that s a nice thing to have in the pocket; she could have sulked after the slow start in last but she settled and kicked; she is the only runner in the field with a triple digit Beyer this year and she did it twice; a win by this miss would make her the 4th miss every to win the Chilukki and this race; this horse for the course should give a very good account of herself. |