Churchill Downs
Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 27, 2013
Race 1
| Cupcake Justice |
| Some promise shown for this price sprinting at IND in September, but even so those were just 4ths so it's not as if those outings get the pulse racing; starts prior and since weren't too hot, though in her defense all came vs. tougher so at least there's a drop today which may help - though it better help a bunch. |
| Housewife |
| Looks headed the right way; no threat in first 2 starts though those came for $50K and $30K; dropped to this price for a 7f trip here Oct. 30, chased the pace and finished 3rd, albeit a well-beaten 3rd (7 3/4 lengths); still, that was an encouraging step forward, she has a feel for this track and there's no further drop in price; but geez could she have worked much slower than she did here Nov. 23 (4fs in :53.60, 69th fastest of 71 that day), hmmmm? |
| Sweet But Sassy |
| Just the 1 3rd from 5 starts, but even on that day she was no factor (beaten 15 lengths and unable to register a positive number on the Beyer scale); was no factor at 63-1 in a sprint at this level here Sept. 27 and has been freshened since pressing the pace and fading to 6th in a sprint at MNR Oct. 8 but she'll need to come back much improved if she's to have any sort of say. |
| Pollard's Memory |
| Debut wasn't very pretty but you can always be forgiving about a debut run; remember, too, not only was it start No. 1 but she blew the start and not much was expected anyway (sent off at 36-1); does drop a bit and there's a work since, albeit a very, very slow one; lone sib is Melody for Maria (2 wins, $14K). |
| Confident Berna |
| No factor first time out for this price at IND Oct. 11, but as mentioned with the prior horse you can always be forgiving about a debut run; worked steadily since and there's no drop and note she was sent off at just 9-1 in that first run so somebody saw something they liked; 2 of 4 sibs are winners including Human Eraser (3 wins, $26K). |
| Little Ariel |
| Things didn't go well first time out but remember, not only was that her debut but it came vs. straight maidens; she was also sent off at 128-1 so obviously there weren't many expectations; now at least has that run under her belt, it did come over this track and there's a significant drop so she could improve, though there's no real evidence yet that she has any talent; lone sib has 1 2nd and 1 3rd from 6 starts for $7K. |
| Grace and Grit |
| Career got off to a rocky start but she's perked up in recent months with some better efforts; oh, they don't get the pulse racing but at least 2 3rds and a 2nd in her last 4 starts show improved form, and mean she's done more than most of her rivals; still, her lack of speed can be anissue but her recent outings also hint she may enjoy today's added ground, so long as she doesn't leave herself with too much work to do turning for home. |
| Seven Point Six |
| Unable to make a dent in first 2 starts, though in her defense those came vs. much more expensive ($50K, then $35K); drops quite a bit further and maybe that's enough to get her headed the right way - maybe; did flash some decent speed in her works at KEE prior to her debut so it's possible she can be more forwardly placed today. By Michael Hammersly |
Race 2
| Lookn Mighty Fast |
| Some tough old pros lined up here; after all, this guy, a 7yo, has won 11 times; hey, you don't do that by accident; in fact, No. 11 came just a couple weeks ago over this track at this type of trip for $25K, and it's very nice to see Foley now bumps him back up in price; that win came with the additon of blinkers and Leparoux, both of which stay for this. |
| Reason to Be Proud |
| Well beaten by Wild Target (16 3/4 lengths) for $25K here Sept. 21 but Rouck then gave him some time off, dropped him to the $16K level, added blinkers and Morales and got a very nice run out of this guy to be 3rd here Nov. 7; that being said, that was vs. much cheaper, though it's most encouraging to now see Rouck DOUBLE him in value; that speaks of confidence, though again means facing tougher. |
| Closerwalk |
| There's speed here; faded to 4th when last seen sprinting here Sept. 28 but that also came vs. $40K foes so there's a slight drop today which may help; been working along in strong fashion the past month or so, too, and again, while there is a drop it certainly doesn't have the look of a fire sale or panic move, does it? |
| Wild Target |
| Was far from disgraced vs. a very nice bunch of optional claimers here Nov. 2; that came after 2 straight wins over this track and being claimed back by Kenneally for $25K Sept. 21; in fact, not only did he run well (beaten just 2 lengths) but it was most encouraging that after claiming him for $25K Kenneally brought him back in a spot where he COULDN'T lose him via another claim. |
| Thunder Affair |
| A good 4th at 33-1 vs. tougher ($50K) here Nov. 2; that being said, it also came routing on turf, and obviously neither of those factor applies here; 3 of 5 wins have come on turf and he's spent the majority of his time the past year or so routing so even with the drop this may not be his favorite game, while some of his foes consider this their specialty. |
| Montezuma Express |
| Coupeld with Zoebear; game win over $30KB foes here Nov. 13; the price is abou the same but these are tougher open foes; still, at least you know he comes here sharp and that last run shows he handles this place, though from a Beyer standpoint he's got some work to do as most if not all of his rivals have done a lot better on the Beyer scale. |
| Original Art |
| Had things going very nicely from about this time last year into the spring; however, things haven't gone so well since; been no factor in his last 5 and that includes his last when 7th well behind a few of today's foes; did show a burst of speed that day but still hit the brakes pretty hard. |
| Zoebear |
| Coupled with Montezuma Express; drop in for a tag last time brought about a nice turnaround in form after a couple not-so-hot outings vs. tougher; now it's nice to see that, after he perked up last time, Becker moves him up in value; has versatility, which gives his rider options from this outside post. By Michael Hammersly |
Race 4
| Cold Facts |
| He ran a big race off the bench last time when second against steeper; closed from well back and for the effort earned what ranks as this race's best last-race Beyer Figure; running style suggests he will make good use of the added ground he picks up in this spot, and note he is a winner at this trip at CD; win candidate in second start since May. |
| Inflation Target |
| He could be sitting on his best race this form cycle as he will be making his third start since August; recent works suggest as much as he turned a bullet Nov. 16; has seen steeper in the past, and like several in this spot he is one who can at least share. |
| Lew and Mike |
| He seems to be on the upswing, and might be sitting on his best recent race as this will be his third out since July; added blinkers last time and can continue his upward trend in the equipment; has some back class to call on, and is another who can share in a competitive race. |
| Upkeep |
| Barn changes things up and sends him to the main track after racing on turf at Ind; in another change, this one returns to the claiming ranks and note his last win came for a tag; like that he has some natural speed, and in a race that does not seem to have an abundance of it, he could be prominent judging from his works over the main track at CD; win candidate. |
| Don't Slip |
| He moved to this distance last out and was prompt chalk, delivering by more than a length as the favorite; was claimed out of that race and now makes first start for new connections; faces steeper on the step up in class off the claim, but owns competitive Beyer Figures; another who can share. |
| Gung Ho |
| He exits a key race; the ninth-place finisher, Fleet Beat, came back to take a $25K claimer at Kee, with a Beyer Figure of 85, and the 10th-place finisher, Nico Suave, a $20K optional claimer at Tdn, with a Beyer Figure of 75; is making his first career start on dirt; runner with back class a win candidate. |
| Prado Dash |
| He bid from last in his most recent start but could find himself closer to the action here on the move from five furlongs to a mile; he also faced steeper in his last race; gets a tactical kind of post and can make a real impact with a repeat of his effort from Oct. 24; runner of interest. |
| Corso's Law |
| He must face older horses after racing against straight 3-year-olds in his most recent start; however, he has defeated his elders in the not too distant past; like that he is a winner over the local strip, and that his last race came at this one-mile trip at CD; another who can share. By Mary Rampellini |
Race 5
| Hesraisincain |
| He turned back in distance for his last start and rallied for third; looking for him to again be bidding from off the pace as he shortens up again, to five-eighths of a mile; makes first career start on turf and note as of Monday he was to be the first grass starter for his young sire. |
| Billy Two Hats |
| He's a useful kind of horse as a seven-time winner who has run out more than $200K; gets back on the grass here and has fired some big races on the green, one start of which produced his best career Beyer Figure; he also might be sitting on a peak race here in his third start since August; win candidate. |
| Mish Mosh |
| He is going for his fifth straight win in a streak that began in May; starts for new connections after being taken for $50K last out at Kee and barn moves him to the grass, where he has placed from two starts on the surface; has been freshened, as this will be his first start since early October; in the zone, but could face pace pressure from a few situated to his outside. |
| Bergerac |
| He was fifth last out in a race that has become a key one; the ninth-place finisher, Fleet Beat, came back in his next start to take a $25K claimer at Kee with a Beyer Figure of 85, and the 10th-place finisher, Nico Suave, a $20K optional claimer at Tdn, with a Beyer of 75; consistent sort moves back to turf, site of the bulk of his success. |
| Grand Idol |
| He did not get the break last time and was beaten double-digits in what seems like a throw-out race; had won two of four leading up to that start and with a solid break suspect we'll see more of that kind of consistent form; one of several who can at least share. |
| Blingboy |
| He was meant for turf last out, but his race was moved to the main track; suspect he will benefit if this stays on the green as his last win came on turf; a question is class as his success of late has come against lesser-priced rivals; still, respect the fact that he's an eight-time winner; can share. |
| Silver Summation |
| He's been entered nothing but turf races since May, and each of them has ended up being run on the main track; took a $62.5K optional claimer at this distance four races back, and has a good deal of class appeal because he's spent the bulk of his career facing steeper; win candidate. |
| Brown Eyed Jozi |
| He's making a rare appearance on the grass, a surface over which he split a field of steeper rivals last October at Kee; has been a consistent sort as a rule and could be sitting on a peak race in his third out since June; a drawback is that he must again face Billy Two Hats. |
| Practical Justice |
| He's moving back to turf for the first time in a while and note he has compiled a strong record on the green, even earning his co-highest career Beyer Figure on the surface; is something of a fresh face as this will be his first start since early September; can share. |
| Wildcat Country |
| He's entered for the main track only and would be a notable pace player if he ends up starting against these; ran well at this level last time, and would seem to have reason to move forward in what will be his second out in a little over two months; yet another who can share. By Mary Rampellini |
Race 6
| Belong to B'sal |
| Freshened for this and in the career cheap spot; like the spacing of the return drills and the last race came back back fine as the 3rd and 4th finishers took MSW races next out and the 7th finisher was 2nd in this very league; after a promising debut, he has kind of gone the other way; backers have to hope he thrives on the drop. |
| Regally Outflanked |
| Not sure how you spin this form in the right direction; gelding has only beaten 4 horses in his career; backers can point to the fact there are several winners in the family including a near $200K earner; not seeing it. |
| Vantastic Magic |
| Zanjero 6 for 53 with debuters; sire won twice at 2, took multiple Grade 2, banked over $1.6 million; dam took one sprint as older horse; one of 3 siblings won; that runner took 2 of 3, banked about 15 grand; note no published moves in October. |
| Mr. Golf |
| Trainer has spotted them fine with limited starters this year; key off the Ellis effort when runner at least drove it in the fairway and this guy has to be given a look; show horse in last took a MSW next out, 4th finisher took a maiden $30K claimer and the 6th finisher was third a head in a maiden $15K claimer; he has a shot to grow into his skin as 3 siblings banked 6 figures including near $275K player Ling Ling Qi; looms late factor if at all. |
| Made It Back |
| Put it Back about 13% with firsters in a 405-runner sample; sire took 5 of 7 including a Grade 2; 4 for 20 dam banked $70K; lone half sis to race Wildcat Queen took 2 of 9, earned nearly $50K; homebred may need one. |
| Car Fifty Four |
| Where are you?; off the rail that's where; note show horse was clear by over 4; runner has had a couple of eventful trips and note he caught the mud two back; may like it here. |
| Grand Music |
| Mirror races in last 3 and none were pretty; not thrilled with the defeat vs. $5K foes in the summer; he had aim at the top of the lane in last, just could not carry on with the momentum; has some things to iron out. |
| Space Indian |
| Fifth new pilot takes the reins; owners would not mind if he starts acting like top kin and near $200K earner Blackwell; would have liked to have seen a recent local work. |
| Blockade Runner |
| Colt flashed career speed 2 back but stopped on the dime in last; dam was 0 for 5; 2 of 3 siblings won in the minor leagues; a bit more keen to drill 4 days ago; he very well could be a good thing in an ordinary race. |
| Playitagain Howie |
| Soph has some semblance of speed but can't see him clearing here; one angle to think about: this rider is 3 for 9 for this barn recently. |
| Twill Be |
| He has to be off for over 20 months for a pretty serious reason; nice bit of training though to have this guy run so well in last off just one prep; he fits in the Beyer department, should be able to settle, get to the fence and save ground for the one run; he still has a shot to have a useful career as kin Boys At Tosconova earned nearly $700K; the hotter the pace the better for this runner. By Brian Mulligan |
Race 8
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Race 9
| Already Red |
| New York bred showed some speed after some early troubled first out at this level but backed out to finished well off some of the gals she'll catch again in this spot; mare moves inside a slot and but if she can get off to an alert beginning she has shown she's quick enough to secure a decent spot and there's not a whole bunch of sprint speed in here; limited sprint winning dam dropped 4 sprint winners including restricted SW and 346K earner Karakorum Splendor so maybe she improves quickly. |
| Giddy Up Gator |
| Filly was given a little extra time off the weak Indiana Downs slop route in which she never got on track; prior effort going longer at the local level was pretty solid and the number she earned there puts her right in the thick of this one; consider. |
| Lady At Heart |
| Hasn't offered much in 2 well spaced starts and now she'll return just a few weeks off the comebacker; filly is out of a limited route winning dam but each of her 5 winning sibs did so sprinting including SW W.W. Lady's Man, a 7 time sprint winner and 276K earner. |
| One Hot Kiss |
| She hasn't shown much in 3 career starts and now she'll make her local debut for a cheap tag while getting the services of another new pilot; dam's lone win came first out but her other foal to race was a 5 time sprint winner; she's got a lot to prove off what she's shown thus far. |
| Slippingonoutthere |
| Sire is 0 for 13 with his first out runners and the dam was a 3 time winner whose 3 foals to race were winners including a couple of multiple winners - 215K earner Stig's Deputy and SW Slip Along Band; barn boasts a debut winner from just a few recently unveiled. |
| Southern Seed |
| Just missed in her local debut at the level when the addition of shades moved her up significantly; slight cut back should help and she figures to find herself in a good spot just off the pacesetters from the bell; she's kin to SP, 10 time sprint winner and 422K earner Agastache; looks like they'll have this lightly raced gal to beat. |
| Littlebitcranky |
| Didn't have a lot to offer late after sitting a wide spot on the turn back to sprint at the level last time; filly owns some back numbers that could get her involved for a share, but she's lost 29 times thus far and doesn't figure to pose a serious threat for the top spot. |
| Olivia B |
| She's run well in each of her starts at the level and proved capable of handling a wet track last time; she's likely to sit a good tracking spot from here and certainly has a right to take a good step forward on the figure scale at any time; contender. |
| Hope's Rose |
| Drops below the level of the barn's claim 2 starts back after offering some improved early lick with shades added last time out; filly hasn't been close at the finish in any of those 3 outs, though, but she is kin to a couple of multiple sprint winners. |
| Sophie Got Even |
| Goes first time for a solid outfit while being offered for sale for the initial time in her local debut; she did show some improved early lick in those last 2 with shades, but those did come at Beulah Park and she's been away from the races for better than 3 months; just watching her here. |
| Gunhild |
| She's been sent off at big prices in each of her 4 starts including a couple of local spins to begin her career and hasn't done anything; maybe the turn back helps and the hood removal can't hurt, but it's tough to get excited by this longshot. |
| Shoes for Jlo |
| She looked to lay over the field in his last out Mountaineer stop, but couldn't go on late at 1-5 on the board and had to settle for the place; she should have some more to offer late at this sprint trip and doesn't figure to be far off the pacesetters early today; worth a look. By Steve Grabowski |