Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 24, 2013

Race 1

Quelch

Draws the fence for his first crack on dirt in nearly a year; gelding will go for a new outfit in this spot and maybe the new shades will help bring out some lick in him as he gets back in with older rivals; don't know that he's going to handle this footing but he's catching a pretty weak bunch and with a solid pilot taking the call is certainly worth a look.

Halon

Drops in half in claiming price following another poor try, this time while turned back to sprint; gelding may have a little more to show early in this spot and maybe he feels the class relief, but he really hasn't done much this year to suggest he'll be up to the task, even against this bunch; it is encouraging to see Leparoux take the call, however.

Courtmaster

Steps up to face better in his first off this outfit's claim after holding on to score in his local return; sophomore gets a new pilot and the barn does boast some recent success with newly calimed runners right back, but this guy is going to have to show up with a much faster race than he offered last time to have a serious say in the outcome today.

Hondo Wando

Sharpened his lick sprinting in his local return at the level after beating cheaper going long at Indiana Downs; gelding should find himself closer to the top early in here and maybe he's able to bounce back from close range on the stretch back out; consider.

Grey Oak

Sophomore tries older on the stretchout after fading in his last 2 sprints over synthetic footing; gray did break his maiden going long last winter in Florida, but the way he's been going of late, don't know that the added ground will move him up very much; passing on him in this one.

Jazil Bell

Stretches out and steps up in search of his third straight score after wiring limited winners at one turn in his return from 3 months on the shelf; he catches a field without much lick so he should be in the thick of this from the bell and in his current form maybe he keeps going; contender.

Bellachino

Hasn't been a serious threat in his last handful of starts and now they'll stretch him out; his last win did come routing and he did it from a tracking spot which he could well find himself sitting from here; class drop can't hurt and the way he's been going the price will be very right.

Race 2

Tizardo

Latest half-mile breeze was an upgrade; his sire won a G2 and 254K (progeny of Tiz Wonderful have scored in 20 out of 97 debuts); the dam won 14 of 39 and 667K; among the winning siblings is 37K earner Vindi Princess.

Offlee Sinister

Twice beaten favorite gets some post position relief and makes only his second start for a tag; has to deal with several firsters today from winning connections and does not warrant such odds once again.

Ionic Silver

Pressed the issue in his maiden voyage before fading at the midway point; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile and 1.26 million; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 249K earner Rule by Night.

Wallyanna

Firster was sired by multiple G1 victor Langfuhr who captured 698K and whose descendants have won approximately 10 percent of their debuts; the dam went zero for 5 lifetime; among the winning sibs is 94K earner Ten Bells.

Bourbon Holiday

He failed to hit the board in both appearances but now descends sharply in class; his sire won multiple G1s and 3.63 million; the dam won 1 of 5 and 13K; among the winning sibs is 45K earner Janero.

Lucky Luminaire

Nothing at all to highlight up to now but he is one of several in this field dropping into claimers for the first time; his sire won a G1 and 465K while the dam scored in 6 of 35 races earning 63K; winning siblings include 67K earner Rosie My Way.

Bold Visionary

Cutback in distance and class relief should work in his favor; has shown fair prompting speed at times and the latest half-mile drill was fair; reverts to Leparoux who was aboard this grey 2 back while favored.

Smartified

Adds blinkers after losing all chance at the break in his first run; his sire won a slew of G1s and 7.61 million; the dam went zero for 13; among the winning siblings is 101K bankroller Unjust; decent breeze pattern of late.

Mo's the Man

Encountered traffic in that first attempt and he now returns with makeover package of blinkers and Lasix; his sire won 4 of 9 and attempts and 752K while the dam won 1 of 6 and 57K; winning sibs include 73K earner Wild About Irene.

Shirota

Yet another runner in the field with an equipment change, he showed little in his first run at big odds; his sire won a G2 and 507K while the dam won 1 of 10 and 11K; winning siblings include 84K earner Sooner Humor.

Iced Over

Beginner was sired by multiple G1 type Utopia who captured 4.91 million and whose descendants have won 6 out of 120 initial tries; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 56K earner Thin Ice.

Race 4

Rosee Is Cozee

Miss may have just been short in the 2013 opener and she was right there at the top of the lane in last; note her tied top career Beyer came in the third off the layoff run; cozy slot this time; don't ignore.

Prayer Bell

Pulpit about 10% with first-time turf runners in a 435-runner sample; sire won debut by over 7, won 3 of next 4 including the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass, never turfed; dam won a Grade 3, took 6 dirt sprints, earned nearly $250K, was never on grass; lone half sis to race Causara took a dirt sprint, lost twice on grass; blow out on the 19th should have her on her toes.

Doctor Vickie Lynn

Nice try first time for the tag and note show horse was 3 clear; note she was handled pretty easily by the rail in this league in September; she has been around the line a few times, must display that killer instinct.

Giant Diamond

Took her share of action in Florida in the rather dull debut; dam's lone win came on dirt routing; the sibling to win was just one for 26, a route, lost thrice on grass; she was trained fairly fast at Keeneland but not the gap in published moves till 11/21; toss anything from a 36% barn at own risk.

Peace Talk

An eventful start in the Indy race may have done her in and she was hooked wide in the last pair; she has a right to have a nice career as kin Zaham won several times on grass, banked nearly $350K; the hotter the pace the better for this gal.

Crab Key

Fit enough to at least drill a couple of times since the turf debut; dam was unraced; all 4 siblings won; 3 tried grass to no avail; top kin Risky Trick banked nearly $100K; she has a right to improve.

Here's Decash

Dehere has popped with 9% of his first-time turfers in a 241-horse sample; sire won juvenile debut, took first 4 starts, won multiple Grade 1s, never turfed; 2 for 9 dam was route only, lost only turf out; lone half sis lost only start; homebred could flash speed on the stretch out.

Batiana

Miss may have been compromised by starting in post 10 last time; G3 placed 4 for 23 dam earned nearly $150K, was turf only; 2 of 3 siblings won; one cashed on turf, the other banked over $160K; tough to pull the trigger off the last effort.

Provocateur

Youngster set the very moderate pace and still gave it up; dam third in best result; lone half sis to race lost 3 times; there are some stamina issues; she has lost ground in the lane in every race.

Cherokee Beads

It's one thing getting a slice at Ellis and another beating a full field here; this is her first to race; 8/17 winner cashed next out in a $25K optional, lost next several; must pick it up.

Street Walkin

Nice middle move to go from 7th to hold the lead briefly, maybe she was just dead short; show horse in last too a maiden $25K HAW claimer next out and the 6th finisher took a MSW at Beulah next out; backers can point to the fact there is a 4-time grass winner in the tree; could need softer to shine.

Ottaviano

She has beaten 5 horses in her career; she has a right to have a decent career as there is a G2 placed runner in the tree; even on the drop last time, she took zero action; passing.

Henley

Corinthian about 8% with debuters in a 217-runner sample, about 8% with first-time turfers in a 118-runner grid; G1 winning 6 for 12 sire, won in second start at 2, banked $1.2 million, never turfed; SW 2 for 4 dam won twice at 2, earned nearly $90K, was grass only; 6 of 7 siblings won; several won on grass including double G2 winner and over $850K earner Mr. Commons; the bred sure is there.

Race 6

Traci Is Ready

More Than Ready about 11% with juvenile first-timers in a 413-horse study; sire won debut at 2, earned over a million; 3-race winning dam cashed at 2, banked $125K; 2 of 3 siblings won; one cashed in debut at 2; note gap in published moves till 10/22.

Sugar Shock

Hung out to dry in the educational debut; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; a bit more keen to drill in the move on Tuesday; every right to run better here.

Mizzen Moon

Decent try in bow and it's a plus factor she's been stabled here; dam lost only start; all 3 siblings won; none won at 2, one banked over $100K; might get brave if she can clear here.

Hit You Back

Roman Ruler about 13% with juvenile first-timers in a 147-horse study; sire took debut at 2, won the Haskell, banked over $1.2 million; dam 0 for 5; lone half sis took one sprint but it was at 2; November drills ideally spaced.

Truly Royal

No speed, no asset; dam out of the money twice; the sibling that won cashed twice as older horse in the minor leagues; looks like barn try to get speed into her with the blowout on the 10th; looms a belated factor.

Mythic

Tale of the Cat about 18% with juvenile debuters in a 492-horse grid; sire didn't race at 2, took debut at 3 in a shore route by over 11 with a 95 Beyer; dam 0 for 12; several multiple race winners in the family; 3 won at 2, one banked nearly $250K; note Rocco 24% in the last year or so when getting a leg up from Catalano.

Wicked Dixie

Dixie Union about 12% with juvenile first-timers in a 320-horse study; sire was precocious enough to win debut at 2, took multiple G1s; dam was unraced; the lone half bro to race cashed twice at 2 including a stakes; may need softer to shine.

Hero Wisdom

Street Hero 3 for 27 with juvenile debuters; sire won at 2, took a Grade 1, earned over $400K; dam was unraced; both siblings won, one cashed at 2; barn can get ready to roll at first asking.

Reckless Tink

Backers got to scream for about 22 seconds; 2 for 22 dam took 2 routes as older horse; this is her first to race; figures to at least muddle the pace, not sure she'll be around at the end.

Silk Purse

Elusive Quality about 16% with juvenile firsters in a 279-runner study; sire won debut going long in the slop for fun as an older horse, took multiple G3s; dam was unraced; several multiple race winners in the family, 4 won at 2 including 2 debut winners; top earner This Ones for Phil took a G2, banked nearly $800K; drills just seem so-so.

First Freedom

First Samurai 8 for 107 with juvenile debuters; 5 for 8 sire took juvenile debut, won Champagne and Hopeful, banked over $900K; dam took 3 routes as older horse; lone half sis to race took 2 routes as older horse; cut out to run as a $150K purchase.

Indian Fiesta

Only a brief threat in the Indy opener; dam took debut at 2, won a stakes as a juvenile; lone half bro to race was a triple route winner as older runner; must display more.

Mrs McGowan

Almost blew up the tote but this is a much tougher fray; dam was unraced; 2 siblings to race are 0 for 11; contender off fine debut but wonder if she needs maiden claimers to thrive.

Katie O.

The race over the surface can only help; dam was unraced; all 3 siblings won; none won at 2; she should have her sea legs under her by now; give her huge look if the scratches are kind.

Flashy Ride

Candy Ride about 15% with juvenile debuters in a 194-runner study; sire didn't race at 2, was unbeaten in 6 outs, took G1 Pacific Classic; dam lost only start at 2 but won 2 stakes and earned over $225K; several in tree won multiple races, 3 won at 2 including a debut winner; best stuff may be a bit farther down the line.

Flashy Dimontina

The hotter the pace the better for this runner; 3 for 25 dam did cash at 2; 3 of 7 siblings won; none won at 2; like the way she was inching toward the winner in last; interesting.

Race 7

Tree Hugger

The good next is she ran well in the return effort in March; the bad news is she has had tons of chances to get that 2nd win and is still trying; miss may have disliked the sealed sloppy strip in last and at least she came back to drill on the 15th; would still be careful.

Rave Reviews

No speed, no asset; she can be her own worst enemy because of that style; that Indy race in July was solid but she has not been able to duplicate that figure; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls completely apart.

Broken Spell

Miss exits the best race and must be given long look off that fact alone; she sure has not ducked anybody this year; soph ran her eyeballs out in the nose defeat two back and a repeat of that effort puts her right on he line; the winner on 6/15 has won twice since, the last in a Grade 1 with a 95 Beyer; primed.

Kimberly Jean

She should have her sea legs under her by now; pretty solid try vs. maidens in the lone grass effort is a plus; connections thought enough of her ability to try the stakes in March; can't fault those that project a peak performance.

Kay War

Miss was in kind of tough on the cut back in October; hung wide in last, she basically just passed a couple of tired horses; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Miss Scout

Stakes placed in Indy in July but she has not been able to beat that Beyer since; more experienced pilot hired for this and you have to wonder if that Grade 3 effort three back knocked the starch out of her?; another slice.

Zipso Facto

Far from disgraced the first time vs. winners, and like the way she was inching toward the winner in last; nice move on the 14th is a good sign and miss has much more speed than she just flashed; surprise package.

Phonybooksnrecords

Don't be too harsh about last as few really want to go that far these days; she did get away with the slow splits last time and could not close the deal; an even 4th the other time on this course; tough to pull the trigger here after the poor efforts vs. winners.

Bluegrass Sapphire

It took awhile for the light to go on but she seems to have figured it out; never easy to win right back after graduating but she ran solidly in the stakes two back and was coming hard in last; check out the 2nd best of 58 spin on the 15th; she has a right to grow into her skin as kin to over $900K earner Catch the Ring.

Intelyhente

That was an impressive middle move in the win when she came from 9th to get within a half of the lead; she may have been compromised by the slot in the stakes debut; barn has been firing with everything and the blood is there for this gal to thrive; she is kin to Grade 2 winner and near $400K earner Bel Air Beauty.

Smittenwithkitten

Proven locally, but three regressions since; off the rail as she comes out of the demanding 7-furlong fray; okay, it was off a layoff, but her win did come in a stretch out situation; drill on the 16th says she is feeling pretty good about herself and she has more speed than she just flashed; don't ignore.

Patinka

Toss the dirt races and the form brightens; she did all the hard work in the win and still had enough to hold them all off; right there at the top of the lane in last, but found winners a tad too tough; Rocco got a chance to figure her out; should be right there when the smoke clears.

Mission Storm

This miss is ambitiously placed; she blew up the tote at 28-1 in the lone score but she could have sulked after the slow start in last but came flyng; 5th and 7th finishers in last took $10K N2L events next out; may want to wait for a softer spot.

Lemon Chiller

Game in the win last time and then they stopped on her; the last race came back live as the place horse took a $25K N2L event, show horse took a $20K claimer, and 9th finisher took a $5K N2L fray; all out last time and we really don't know how much it may have taken out of her.

Sassy Kitten

Bet like a good thing in the win and she sure didn't disappoint; she proved in last how tough it can be to handle winners right back; a bit more keen to run in the drill on the 15th, miss was hung wide in last and could be looking at the same fate here.

She's Tellin'tales

Wrong surface in last; toss it; she beat the smallish field in the Arlington finale; tough to adore after the last fiasco and note she got away with the pedestrian pace in the nose win two back.

Race 8

China

The show finisher from last posted an 89 Beyer speed figure in a next-out CD-40K claimer; has gate speed in a race filled with it including RIver Rocks, Vanity, Triumph and Song and WB Smudge; nearly 7 months since fading on a wet-main track; he has been very best on fast footing; scored off a long layoff in August, 2012, so has every chance to run a biggie right off the bench returning to CD dirt the surface of his career-best Beyer speed figure; the 2-back runner-up scored next out in a WO-G2 with a 95 Beyer while the show runner took an ATL-52K event next out with an 88 speed figure.

River Rocks

5 straight races 1st at the 1st call joining a long group of frontrunners signed on for this; cuts back to 6F the distance of his maiden breaker; the winner from last Beyered 96 in a next-out PRM-60K stakes win; the 2-back runner-up finisher posted an 89 speed figure in his next-out AP-Grade 3 victory.

Circle Unbroken

Grade 3 winner at today's distance over the track when rallying well; gets to save ground here behing a projected sizzling-contested pace; 2-for-2 on Louisville dirt and is winless since those 2 wins locally; back on dirt for the 1st time since badly overmatched in a Grade 2; lots to like on this late runner; the one to beat.

Ouimet

Another closer who benefits greatly with 5 of these all wanting the lead; impressive-fresh win on CD dirt at today's distance when upsetting allowance foes and if can just repeat that move has every chance to repeat; the 3-back winner came right back to win next out in a CD-optional claimer with an 89 Beyer; the pick.

Vanity Feature

Defeated the 4th and 5th-place finishers from last; they Beyered 79-74 in next-out MNR alw. and CD-15K-claiming wins; both wins right on the lead but gets tested on dirt for the 1st time while has to fend off River Rocks, China, Triumph and Song and WB Smudge to make the lead.

Jake Mo

Would think a stalker/closer type like him would be the winner in a race top heavy with pure-speed runners; main concern is his lack of recent wins but raced well in defeat in recent losses; last victory was July, 2011, in a PRM-75K stakes at 5.5F; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 95 in his next-out OP-optional-claiming win; contender.

Triumph and Song

Speedster lost all chance for the win in last when stumbling at the start but still managed to land an exacta spot behind the winner who repeated in an FP-52K event with a 95 Beyer then made it 3 in a row with a 96 Beyer taking a HAW-84K stakes; main knock is both CD-dirt races were off-the-board finishes including 2-back vs. the show runner who Beyered 87 in a next-out CD-60K stakes win.

W. B. Smudge

Posted a career-best Beyer in last when loose on the lead but that scenario does not play out well here with River Rocks and Vanity Feature signed on as well as others all wanting the lead; 1st time on CD dirt today which has been known to be a tricky surface for so many; know him early then hopes to hang on late for a share.

Golden Frontier

Field-best Beyer was at longer on CD dirt on the lead May, 2012; recent races has been as a stalker but both wins were right on the frontend which will be tough to get here with WB Smudge, Vanity Feature and River Rocks all wanting the lead; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 89 in a next-out IND-optional-claiming win.

Race 9

Steffi

Maybe connections had this race in mind all the time; looking at a stalk and pounce trip from the fence; she has won at this demanding trip and the slightly shorter trip could be just what the good doctor ordered; don't ignore.

Soft Wind

First time for sale for this $100K purchase; you would figure it to be an all out go; place horse in last cashed next out in a $37.1K NC allowance at Mountaineer; right there with a :46 and small change half to kick off the year; the hotter the pace the better here.

Magical Weekend

Trainer has spotted them just fine with limited starters; more experienced pilot here and she is off the rail; like the energy in the drill this month; troubled in last pair, with a clean journey, it could be a whole new ballgame.

Broadmoor de Light

Got away tracking a pedestrian pace in the lone win on grass; show horse in last cashed next out in a $30K N2L fray with a 60 Beyer; off rail but she will need plenty of help up front; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls apart.

Miss Bracken

Freshened since stopping on a dime; beaten by the repeater in the Spa finale, miss can bring :45 and change speed to the party as she shows up in a conditioned claimer for the first time; expect much better result.

Lake Michigan

Beaten a nose in last sprint; this is a much better trip for her; 7/5 show horse took a $15K optional next out, lost next 3; the 7/5 winner repeated in a $40K optional with a 67 Beyer; major player.

McCoughtry

Trainer tinkers with blinkers and wonder if they were on for the move on the 6th; the 9/4 place horse cashed next out in a $25K N2L fray with a 73 Beyer; she was gaining a little ground late the only time here; should be rolling late if at all.

Cue E Dee

Took overland route but she finally got there; place horse in last took a maiden $30K claimer and 5th finisher took a maiden $10K claimer; two excuses two back; she may have disliked the surface and she was steadied to boot; needs very best.

Mizzilli

It's one thing going all out on the drop to beat a Beulah group and another to beat winners on a tougher circuit; respect barn, but this gal seems to have things to prove.

Three D

Proven fresh, she has some semblance of speed but not sure she can clear here; the way she extended in the lone win suggests she can get this trip; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this homebred.

Surprise Surprise

Apparently not much of a work horse, she was life and death for the lone score; show horse the last time in town cashed next out in a $25K starter, was 2nd beaten just over a length in a $35K starter on 10/18; lean toward watching here.

Racy Tracy

Don't be too harsh about last as it's never simple to beat winners right back; place horse in last took an N2L allowance next out; miss may be a bit fragile as this in only the second time in her career she has strung together 4 starts.