Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 22, 2013

Race 1

Hey Cuz

Career-best Beyer speed figure was posted on a synthetic surface and his lone dirt win was over a wet-main track; he is doing a rain dance for this; was screaming out for more distance in last in the loss vs. Glint; is eligible to improve 2nd time back off the 83-day absence.

Timely Pursuit

The return to CD dirt off the long layoff produced a strong effort when screaming out for more distance and getting it here; is clearly eligible to move forward for this 2nd time off the bench; last win was right on the lead which makes latest more impressive when breaking last; the 2-back loss looks better after seeing the runner-up and show finishers Beyer 89-84 in next-out OP-alw. and optional-claiming wins.

Biker Boy

May work out an excellent trip sitting just off the speedy Laope; last win was accomplished at today's distance on CD dirt; his field-best Beyer was posted February, 2009, in a GP-dirt alw. race at today's 7F distance; a scary rival on his best day; was primed for this at longer and with a .500 record on today's main track looks danergous.

Glint

Great sign that his 1st race off the claim was his best Beyer since a field-best speed figure drilled at 6F over the CD-main track more than 1 year ago; horse for the course for a high-percentage jockey-trainer combo adds to the appeal; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 77 in a next-out KEE-10K-claiming win.

El Sombre

53 days since dueled into defeat on turf; the 6-0-1-1 dirt mark does not add to the appeal noting his last main-track start in May was an exacta finish chasing the PRM winner who repeated in a PRM-5K claimer with a 67 Beyer; 8%-winning fresh trainer suggests we take a wait and see approach also noting his lone CD-dirt start was a double-digit length defeat.

Longhammer

Did not show up with his best form in the 2 races off the January claim; exits his 1st-CD dirt loss going 2-for-2 here winning his career debut at 8.5F in the slop in 2010 and at 1 Mile in May, 2012 on a fast-CD oval; beat the December runner-up finisher who Beyered 79-73 in his 2 next-out wins.

Jonmil Johnny

Has done his best dirt running on wet-race tracks but clearly has been superior on turf during career including a wet-grass career-best Beyer in July; finished last in May, 2012, the last time traveling on CD dirt and his last main-track start at MNR was on a wet track where fading; would be a surprise.

Laope

Seems the one to catch with Biker Boy; was claimed off a 4%-win trainer so improvement is expected off the CD win and best Beyer of 2013 since a TP-synthetic-surface victory; may own the best gate speed in this event and is 3-for-20 everywhere else but CD dirt; horse for the course was defeated by the 3-back winner who repeated in a KEE-16K claimer with an 82 Beyer.

Race 2

Daddy's Pleasure

Off poorly to kick it off, then miss stopped on the proverbial dime; sire proved stamina taking the Florida Derby; 4 for 47 dam was route only, banked $100K; the half bro to score Crimson Knight won at 2, earned nearly $180K, was basically a sprinter; has some things to prove.

Trick My Ride

Fans didn't by the decent Indy debut and they were right on the money at 45-1 last time; 5 of Grade 1 winning sire's wins were routes; one for 17 dam won at 2 on grass; all 3 siblings won; 2 cashed at 2, 2 routed successfully in the minor leagues; must pick it up.

Bella Campari

Shows for the tag but is still 17 grand over purchase price; $1.5 million earning sire was dirt route only; dam was unraced; 5 of 6 siblings won; 2 cashed at 2, 2 won routing, top earner Expecting Cash banked nearly $275K; tough to adore off the opener.

Dixieland Samurai

First Samurai 8 for 107 with juvenile debuters; 5 for 8 sire took juvenile debut, won Champagne and Hopeful, banked over $900K; sire showed stamian taking Fountain of Youth; dam won at a mile in S. America; this is her first to race; may need softer to shine.

Honored

She has not shown an affinity for grass at all; stakes winning dam took one dirt route; 2 of 3 sibs won; one took debut at 2, one banked nearly $200K, both were just sprinters; probably a late threat if at all.

Manki

Arch about 8% with juvenile firsters in a 189-runner sample; Grade 1 winning sire graduated in juvenile debut, took 5 of 7, earned almost half a million; 3 of sire's 5 wins were routes; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; capable barn due to get rolling.

Another Incident

Homebred needs a turn around, maybe she was intimidated by the fence; sire won multiple Graded races routing; dam was 0 for 5; several winners in the family; one cashed at 2; 3 cashed routing; none were monsters; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

True Kinection

She got an educational run sprinting; millionaire sire won 11 times, all sprints; dam banked $150K, but was sprint only; this is her first to race; she only cost $4,200; lean toward watching a miler effort before teeing it up.

Race 4

Gentleman Jackson

He had every right to need his most recent start after a long layoff and he might be looking forward to getting back over turf for this; he projects to sit a favorable ground saving trip after breaking from the rail post, and he should find himself in good position to strike turning for home.

Stormy Going

A little concerned when seeing that he hasn't been on top of his game in recent starts, but he's run some nice races over turf this year, and he's only a few starts removed from performances that are strong enough to make him a threat in this spot; third finisher from latest won next out at RP on 11/9 going 7 1/2f over turf vs. 25k OPC's with an 80 Beyer.

N. B. A. Money

His best effort doesn't appear to be strong enough to get the job done in this spot and his complete lack of early speed is eligible to leave him with a lot of ground to cover when they turn for home; on a positive note, Lanerie has won with 3 of 8 (38%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Lonesome Street

Grade 2 winner has every bit the look of a top contender while dropping down in class to meet up with 40k claimers and he has Ramsey and Maker behind him; he is light on recent winning form, but he's clearly a threat to walk away with the top prize against these.

Custer

13-time winner has run well over turf in his career, but his better recent efforts have been run over dirt, and perhaps he's hoping to see this race get moved to the main track; prefer to look toward others unless a surface switch comes into play.

Saturday Launch

Although he's been facing allowance company lately, this still looks like a difficult spot for him to land in, even if he is being dropped in against 40k claimers; he hasn't posted a win since March 2012, and this looks like a tough spot for him to try to snap his current losing streak.

Jimmy Simms

Multiple stakes winner shows up for a barn that can be live with a fresh horse and this veteran has a number of starts on his card that are strong enough to give him a competitive look against these; like to see that he has run well over this turf course in the past, and Santana has won with 84 of 325 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Motor City

He has a G3 win to his credit but he's another who enters this race on a long losing streak and his better races have been run over dirt; he's going to need to find a way to step it up over what he's been doing lately in order to contend.

Mr. Jeeves

He has shown a little bit of turf ability through his first seven starts, but he's yet to prove that he can handle competition of this caliber, and he enters this race off of a layoff of more than a year.

Fair Dinkum

His turf debut in his latest outing can be viewed in a positive light but it still looks like he's going to need to show more if he's to see his number posted on top after this one is run; prefer to limit him to a spot underneath in the exotics.

Beer Garden

There are a few horses in the main body of this race that have proven that they can perform over dirt, but this will be a decent spot for this colt to land in if this race has to be taken off the turf; he has some early speed and going to look for him to be involved in the running throughout.

Practical Justice

He has to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to draw in and he will have to top his previous best effort to get the better of this field; winner from latest won next out at Pen on 10/9 going 1m vs. 25k OPC's with an 81 Beyer.

Thunder Affair

Stakes placed performer has some solid turf form on his card to consider, but he's probably going to need to hope that a few of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at the top spot, and an outside post won't help his cause.

Race 6

Relentless Spirit

Above average breezes during the last week for this son of Indian Charlie who won the G1 Santa Anita Derby while earning 616K (his offspring have won 100 out of 623 debuts); the dam won 2 of 7 and 77K; winning siblings include 395K earner Heart Alley.

Fight the Tide

Could not handle the extension to 9 furlongs last month but did show some fair prompting speed that day; returns to the distance of 2 back where he unleashed a strong late charge to just miss; should be a late presence against this group.

Alert and Perky

He closed with a tremendous rush last time out to lose a heart-breaker; his sire won a G1 and 905K while the dam scored in 6 of 25 appearances earning 138K; sib to 50K earner Dreamy Diva; respect despite the rise from claimers.

Late Night Lu

Stuck in second gear but he earned a personal best Beyer by far despite doubling in price last month; latest maintenance breeze was fair and he should be a stretch factor today if the early fractions are honest.

Northern Irish

Newcomer turned in an improved half-mile breeze on 11/9; his sire won 4 of 27 and 238K (progeny of Killenaule have won 5 of 42 debuts); the dam never raced; among the winning siblings is 423K earner Northern Candyride.

Nordiste

Quit early in both assignments while huge odds; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 1.01 million; the dam was unraced; winning siblings include 106K earner Moon Prospect; Lasix addition may not matter.

Python

Rested since disappointing as the favorite at Oaklawn; returning workout pattern is steady but average; on the plus side of the ledger is the solid win percentage of the trainer/jockey combination involved; mixed signals overall.

Yardbird Misfits

Keeps earning checks and ran very well last month when outfinished by Late Night Lu; rated off the pace when negotiating this distance 2 starts back; appears to have legitimate trifecta chances once again.

Franklin

Only one effort and it was a sharp one despite the wide draw; his sire won a G1 and 337K while the dam was zero for 3 lifetime; winning siblings include 777K earner Thiskyhasnolimit; very logical contender but far less appeaing odds today.

Lincoln Law

Although there is a long layoff to consider, he was part of a strong pace in his first assignment; his sire won multiple G1s and 2.79 million; the dam went 1 for 3 earning 34K; sib to 24K earner Tiz Our Insight; sudden upgrade to the latest drill.

Race 7

Indian Pegasus

Showed little from a wide spot in his main track sprint debut here last month and now he'll make his turf debut from the fence; sire gets 10% winners from his first surface runners and though the dam was 0 for 2 on the green all 5 of her wins did come routing; barn does boast solid numbers with second out runners.

Spinning for Home

Sire gets 8% first out winners and is 3 for 69 with his first time surface runners and the limited sprint winning dam was off the board in her lone turf start; both sibs are winners but neither tried the lawn; New York bred boasts slow drills for an outfit that has won just a couple of races this year.

Vigorish

He showed some early foot on the initial route spin over the local sod late last month, but didn't have much left for the drive; maybe the move inside helps and he doesn't catch an experienced bunch of surface runners in this spot, so maybe he moves forward enough second time going long to factor for a share.

Out of Patience

Sire is 1 for 19 with his newcomers and 1 for 11 with his initial turf starters and the dam won first time she stepped on the green while banking 183K; lone sib is winless from 4 starts, 2 of which came on the lawn; barn has had some recent luck first out but this guy's drills aren't much.

Reach for a Kitten

First part of the coupling adds the hood for the move to the lawn after taking money and getting caught in a wide spot in his debut over synthetic footing; barn excels with second out runners and they reach out for a top turf pilot here; sire gets 16% first time surface winners from his offspring and both of the dam's wins came on the green including the first time she stepped over the stuff; lone sib is this guy's fill brother, G1 SW turfer and 559K earner Admiral Kitten; expecting he'll take to the new footing and prove to be the one to beat.

Jannes Paul

Ran a relatively even race in his Keeneland turf debut for a barn that's going well both locally and with second out runners; his recent drills are decent and the SW dam was a 3 time turf winner whose other foal to race won on the green so it wouldn't be a surprise to see this guy take a good step forward here.

Ready Mecke

Wasn't close in either of his 2 starts and now he'll give the lawn another shot; he's been working regularly for his return from the brief freshening and his dam is a surface winner, but he's got some improving to do off what he's shown thus far.

Cov

Showed some speed first out on the Ellis main track, but failed to offer much in the troubled turf try at Keeneland last month; not much surface pedigree on the dam's side but the sire was a talented turfer so maybe this guy deserves another crack over the footing; clean run can get him involved for a share at a decent price.

Major Darby

Adds the hood for the stretchout in his turf debut after a couple of ugly sprint rinning lines; barn hasn't had much recent luck with first time surface runners; sire is 1 for 10 with his offspring first time on this footing and the dam never tried the stuff prior to dropping 3 grass winners including 2 who scored first time over it.

Clovelly

First out runner up ran well from off the pace in that synthetic sprint and he returned to work sharply over that footing last weekend; his sire gets 10% first time surface winners from his offspring and the SW dam was a 2 time turf winner and 123K earner so he figures to take to the green; contender.

Mill Creek

MTO is by a sire who gets 10% winners from his debut runners and the G1 SP, G2 SW route dam was a 678K earner whose lone foal to race was a wet track route winner; barn doesn't usually have them fully cranked first out, but this guy's recent drills suggest he may have some ability and that could result in a big performance if he gets the off going he's bred to love.

Uncaged

AE is by a sire who is 0 for 8 with his debut runners and 1 for 7 with his first turfers; dam was a limited surface winner whose lone foal to race won twice on the lawn; works don't offer many clues and he'll start from a tough slot if he gets to go.

Forfeit

AE offered a nice late kick sprinting at Keeneland first time out and now he'll take a step up the class ladder looking to route and step on the green, both for the initial time; he'll also get Lasix for this and he is kin to a few surface winners; sire gets 8% first time turf winners from his offspring.

Fourosixoone

AE has yet to hit the board in 4 career spins and now he'll try MSWs for the first time since his Ellis debut try; sire gets 14% first turf winners and the dam did hit the board twice from 3 surface tries; lone sib was 0 for 1 on the green; tough to get excited about his chances from out here if he gets to go.

Triple Play Kitten

Ramsey's other runner is by a sire who gets about 16% winners from both his overall debut runners and those trying the green for the first time; dam's lone win came on the green and both of her foals to race won on the lawn; he's mired on the list and not likely to start from the outside gate here, but his recent drills are solid.

Race 8

Temptress

Life and death for the line win and it was on the stretch out; love the spacing of the return drills; she has more speed than she flashed last time and may be on the muscle fresh; she also got a boost when the winner of last won twice since, the last in a $200K Remington stakes; drill on 11/8 was eye catching; respect.

Party Till Dawn

Filly wanted no part of the route game in last; a bit more keen to drill on the 16th and that's a good sign; she has enough zip to maintain contact on her best day; rates upset glance.

Anusara

Miss has fired every time and ran her eyeballs out in defeat last time; off the rail, can't fault those that project a peak run after the pair under the girth; back to the original pilot here and miss got a boost when the place horse 9/7 cashed next out at this very level at Laurel with a 77 Beyer; major player.

Roman Innocence

Face it, she's in a major funk; 2nd the last time sprinting but she sure didn't scare anybody that day; hungry tyro takes the reins; note wraps were added last time; try to get a good look at her on the track.

Graceful Rage

Only one slice vs. winners and somebody had to be third in the 6-horse field that day; note wraps for the October return before the last fiasco; needs a total reversal of fortune.

Assets of War

Miss finished with interest two back but then fans went the other way to the tune of 11-1 in last and they were wise; late-running sprinter can be her own worst enemy at times since she tends to just dawdle early; 8/14 winner won a pair of $25K optionals since in Indy; the hotter the pace the better for this miss.

Miffed

Maybe she was just dead short in last; she brings legit speed to the party and has trained fast for this; place horse in the April finale won in this league next out here with an 88 Beyer; Rocco got a chance to figure her out; may get brave if she can secure a lonely lead.

Ascot Eye

The fact she won her debut gives her a chance to fire fresh; winner of the Chicago finale took an N2X next out with a 75 Beyer; she has been popular at the windows and she didn't get the best of trips in the last pair; has shot to rebound here.

In Kelly's Defense

Don't be too harsh about last as it's never simple to beat winners right back; and that was her only poor race; she has some semblance of speed but not convinced she can clear here; clever barn due to get rolling.

Cookie

Nothing like a quick turn on the investment to get the morale at the barn in the right way; can never dismiss sub :22 speed, she handles any kind of going, and love the draw; over 3 clear in last and note show horse was also by herself; the one to beat.

Race 9

Kitchen Police

Survived a strong early pace battle to capture the place in his debut run; his sire won multiple G2s and 1.04 million while the dam lost her only start; among the winning siblings is 219K earner Wayward Sailor.

Final Samurai

Failed to fire in his debut but the sloppy track might have been the primary reason; his sire won multiple G1s and 915K while the dam won 4 of 7 attempts and 138K; among the winning siblings is 143K earner Casino Transaction.

Perfect Puma

Encountered trouble in his first run when finishing far back; his sire was a G1 turf winner who banked 1.09 million; the dam never raced; winning siblings include 51K bankroller Tiebracken Lily.; can rebound with this drop to the claiming ranks.

Arboretum

Deceptive first run when losing significant ground from the outermost post; his sire won a G1 and 727K while the dam won 4 of 33 and 48K; among the winning siblings is 177K earner Miss Castellano.

Go Go Sugar

Commendable, even effort when rising to this class earlier in the month; the sire won a G1 and 455K while the dam scored in 10 of 34 appearances earning 781K; sib to G1 steeplechaser Sermon of Love who notched 290K; respect.

Favorite Coach

New face shows a fair workout regimen; his sire won a G1 and just over a million dollars (descendants of Stephen Got Even are 11 percent winners first time out); the dam won 1 of 5 and 11K; sib to 30K earner Party Judge.

Boss Man Mike

This colt has shown a proven first gear on the turf; his sire was a G1 sprinter who amassed 831K; the dam won 1 of 7 and 16K; among the winning siblings is 96K earner Peninsula; can make this surface switch a winning one.

Baby Titan

Scheduled to add blinkers after that troubled first run while the 9 to 5 favorite; his sire won multiple G1s and 1.77 million; the dam won 1 of 10 and 18K; winning siblings include 56K earner Color Cam; can awaken.

Ford's On Fire

Displayed some prompting ability on a wide path in his first try around 2 turns; his sire won a G1 and 1.23 million while the dam won 2 of 17 and 149K; sib to 37K earner Pampering; class relief and turnback in distance should help matters.

Knight of Dreams

Offspring of Funontherun, who won multiple G2s and 300K, have scored in 5 of 39 initial attempts; the mom won 6 of 65 and 168K; among the winning siblings is 26K earner Heza Razorback; generous odds assured.

Be Warned

His sire was a G2 type who earned 517K in total (progeny of The Daddy have won 7 of 77 debuts); the dam won 1 of 3 and 9K; among the winning sibs is 46K earner B. W. Beetle; this trainer has scored with longshot beginners.