Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 21, 2013

Race 1

Almighty Storm

Declining-Beyer speed figure pattern since the 3-back-turf field-best number; scored right on the lead 2-back at today's distance but that IND form did not transfer well at CD; her only other in-the-money finish was on CD dirt in the career debut; know her early then hopes to hang on late.

Lady Caroline

Also entered Wed. in a CD-turf allowance at 1M 1-16th after exting a career-best Beyer on a fast-CD dirt oval and today's distance is the maiden-breaking stamina test; lone-win over a wet-main track she can handle anything; ran well off the IND loss and the cutting the price tag in half is an agressive placement; the pick.

Something Blue

Claimed off a high-win percentage trainer which is not a good-win angle while the normal 2nd-time out Beyer improvement did not occur on a wet-race track; the class drop produced a gate-to-wire easy romp but there is plenty of other-gate speed signed on for this; wonder if she can be close to the lead from the gate vs. this kind?; an improved-workout on display for this.

Valerie Victoria

2-troubled trips off the career-best Beyer on turf; would have to avenge latest loss vs. Lady Caroline to make a dent here; mild workout for this off the 1st-CD effort was a better-than-it looks try; gets in with her lightest-weight assignment ever.

B. A. Love

A 61-day absence for the return to CD dirt where her debut produced a career-low Beyer; the winner and 4th-place finishers from last posted 70-54 speed figures in next-out LRL-100K stakes and PEN-20K-claiming wins; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Sweet Cat O Line

68 days since the IND diploma earner for a 7%-winning fresh trainer; the IND ship-ins have not fared well on CD dirt; best races are up near the frontend but projects to chase the inside speed from the gate then hopes to hang on for a share.

Legomyborrego

Both of her best Beyers occured on CD dirt for a 23%-winning 2-year-old/repeat trainer; the 1st start vs. winners is often any runner's toughest assignment; won right on the lead 2 back and figures to chase the inside speed wide for this.

Stakeholder

Light-winning graduation Beyer but the good news is she rallied from off the pace and today is in a race loaded with gate speed; best Beyer on turf while today's new rider is her 6th in as many career races which is not a good-win angle; projects to press the pace wide.

Race 2

Wife in the Wind

Beaten favorite has displayed a decent first gear and finally draws an inside post; can show much more endurance now if able to gain an early advantage; faces a host of untested runners though and does not warrant another short price.

A Noble Calling

Chased a decent pace first time out before fading; her sire won multiple G3s and 662K overall while the dam won 5 of 52 and 149K; among the winning siblings is 138K earner Top Leader; draws an improved post and should be a major player.

Bulldashanswers

Newcomer was sired by G2 victor Hesabull who banked 826K and whose offspring have won 10 percent of their debuts; the dam won 7 of 32 and 126K; among the winning siblings is 47K earner Matchbook.

Stormin' Jorja

Firster was sired by G1 type Stormello who captured 700K (his progeny have won 3 of 51 initial starts); the dam won 3 of 20 attempts and 55K; among the winning siblings is 232K earner Bellaride.

Ben's Juliette

Descendants of Half Ours, a G2 winner who notched 319K, have scored in 15 of 96 debuts; the dam won 5 of 34 and 56K; winning siblings include 32K earner Crescent City Zip; improved in the latest breeze from the gate.

Quick as a Bunny

Her sire won 8 of 22 attempts and 392K overall; progeny of Indy Wild are 2 for 16 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 2 of 20 and 19K; among the winning siblings is 242K earner No Badge.

Maybe Lily

Makes only her second start in the claiming ranks and did turn in a fair showing in a large field in the last attempt; can upgrade further over a fast track and the cutback in distance today can help her cause as well.

Shoot the Drone

Right behind Maybe Lily last month and she lost significant ground in that effort; her sire won multiple G2s and 491K while the dam won 2 of 10 appearances and 42K; among the winning siblings is 11K earner Eugene'sexpress.

Race 3

Aft

Respect Mizzen Mast as a turf sire but this looks like a tough spot for this colt to be getting over the Churchill Downs turf course for the first time; he's going to need to improve over his previous best Beyer Speed Figure by approximately 25 points in order to threaten the top contenders.

School On a Hill

He rolled while earning a strong Beyer Speed Figure in his career debut going a mile at AP, and not only will he appreciate getting back over turf for this, but he'll appreciate dropping out of the graded stakes ranks as well; must consider.

Huntstown

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won once from eight starts for 10k, including 0-for-3 over turf; he was entered over turf for his career debut, but a much improved performance is needed in his first turf test if he's to contend.

Sweet Daddy

He's shown a little something in his first three starts and he earned a stakes placing racing over turf at KD just two starts back; this is a top turf barn that is currently live and can't see any reason why this colt shouldn't be listed with the contenders.

Mygalsal

He really hasn't run a bad race to date and he's finished 1-2 in all four of his turf attempts; he's the only one in this race with a feel for this turf course and like the idea of him being ready to give a solid account of himself while meeting up with winners for the second time.

Son of a Preacher

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 3 of 9 starts for 519k, including 0-for-1 over turf; his career debut was a sharp winning performance and Mena has won with 8 of 15 (53%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

She's Coal Fired

Can't ignore the impact that her early speed can have on the way that this race shapes up, but she's going to need to be ready to take her game to another level in her first route attempt if she's to keep up with the top contenders through the stretch.

Sheltowee's Boy

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 20 starts for 33k, and she didn't make a turf start; feel that it's a good idea to respect his chances when seeing what he did over a sloppy track in his career debut, and even though he loses Davis to another in here, Bridgmohan is a go-to rider for this barn.

Whyprolongtheagony

This race isn't likely going to come up soft if it has to be taken off the turf and this colt will need to take a noticeable step forward if he's to keep up with the top contenders; respect connections, but going to look in another direction.

Race 4

Night Vision

Drops in price following a weak try in his return to dirt; gelding is a 2 time local winner and he did see the local winner's circle as recently as late June, but he hasn't been the same runner since taken by this barn off that score; can only watch him in here.

Big Flirt

Fresh gray is offered for a tag again in his local return after showing little from the Ellis fence prior to the time off; gelding was pretty good when last sighted here 5 months back and maybe the local return does help perk him up some, but those last couple of races are tough to just look past.

Boy's Brother Bob

Indiana bred tries cheap conditioned claimers in his return from the brief break after a weak effort first time off the outfit's claim; score 2 back was visually impressive but it did come at 2 turns; maybe he finds himself closer early in a field without a lot of speed, but have to limit his use to underneath in exotics here.

Proud Image

Beaten chalk tries better on the turn back to sprint off the claim by an outfit that hasn't had any recent luck with this type; gelding has no one turn experience and that's a concern, but he has shown tactical foot going long so he should be able to sit within striking range of the pacesetters early; consider.

Mardi Gras Party

He's been away from the races for 8 months since offering little against conditoned claimers at Turfway Park; his last local try came a year ago and he wasn't far off the winner, but that was the best dirt number he'd run and it doesn't stack up well in here; just watching the comebacker.

Kowboy Kody

Didn't have enough late to get to the top 2 while making his local return at the level but wasn't beaten all that much at the wire while earning a number that fits in this spot; gelding gets off the fence for this and he does figure to find himself within striking range of the pacesetters early in this spot; contender.

Canuletmedowneasy

Tries better off this outfit's claim after bossing at odds on in his local debut; 4 year old has early foot which should play out well in here and though he's likely not the runner he was even earlier this year on the green, a repeat of his last is good enough to win this; he's the one they'll have to beat.

Bullzaboy

Outside drawn gelding wasn't a match for the last out winner, but he was well clear of the rest; that guy does return in this spot as well and this gelding hasn't won in a long time, but he does grab plenty of minor awards and could well be second best again today.

Race 6

Luce Mia

Last race was her best since she beat conditioned claimers at Ellis; inching toward the winner in last and she should have her sea legs under her by now; a bit more energy in the drill on Saturday is a good thing; must be left in the exotic mix right back.

Black Tulip

Far from a win machine and note 3 times more slices than wins; a distant 2nd in the Keeneland finale and mare sure didn't scare anybody in last; she has been handled by a couple of today's foes; passing.

Perfect Praise

In good hands and solid barn due for a little luck; check out the 17 slices this miss; the 9/13 show horse took an N1X next out, then was crushed in a Grade 2; horrible trip in last but it's never simple to concede 10 or 15 lengths and threaten; needs very best.

Bow to No One

Nearly 3 clear two back and she had the valid excuse of the sealed sloppy strip in last; miss has to prove it on grass; she only beat 6 in the lone win and is obviously giving away winning experience; would be careful here.

Fine Lookin Lady

The race over the course can only help; she proved she belongs in this league; with her style and lack of speed, she needs help up front but the show horse 10/19 cashed next out in a $25K claimer here last Saturday with an 80 Beyer; Albarado got a chance to figure her out; primed.

Lady Susan

Three solid efforts for this stable; she also doesn't need to be 10 back early today; hung wide the first time for this barn, mare appears to have that confidence thing going for her now; threepeat well within the realm.

Tellalittlesecret

Mare has won her share over the years but has not been able to close the deal this season; hung wide in the August finale and also in September; at least the last race came back okay as the show took a $30K claimer next and the place horse won at this very level; wraps added in last; try to get a good look at her on the track.

Chinchero

Like fact she graduated on grass even though it was in pretty soft company; she has a right to show more speed on the stretch out here and she got a boost when the 9/18 place horse won next out in an N2L $25K claimer in Indy before running out of the money; goes from one good barn to another; look for pilot to send hard and try to steal it.

Wanta Go

Proven fresh, only one of her 4 wins came on grass; tough beat in last and note the show horse was 3 clear; show horse in the last win took a $14K claimer next out, lost next pair; could see her sitting a nice stalk and pounce trip; far too sharp not to take seriously.

Baltoro

Red Giant one for 14 with first-time turfers; Grade 1 winning sire won half of 12 outs, all on turf, banked over a million; dam's lone win was a dirt route; several multiple race winners in the family but 4 tried grass to no avail; contention goes deep.

Honey Hues

These are her friends; note she aired in this league in May and proved it was no fluke turning the hat trick; toss race two back when just overmatched on a surface she may have hated; a tad late last time, but the shorter trip should help and the place horse in the June swoon took a $100K Mountaineer stakes next out and then stopped on a dime; legit threat if she gets a shot to suit up.

Wild Swava

Only one poor effort and she couldn't stand up in the slop that day; pushed wide early in last but still prevailed and note the place horse was clear for fun; 9/5 winner repeated in a $12.5K PID starter, then ran out of the money; more experienced pilot here; must respect everything from this barn.

Pressthehardways

Mare took the overland route in last; the 9/17 winner repeated in a $25K optional and the 5th horse 9/17 won next out against $10K claimers, then ran 8th twice; must proven she can win outside of conditioned claiming land.

Get Runnin'

Toss sloppy fiasco two back; she improved on the cut back and has the two races to build on now; decent blowout on Saturday a positive and note this rider was up for the last victory; valid threat if scratches are kind.

Race 7

Tiz Adonis

It's interesting to see that he's never been entered at a distance this short before and seven furlongs might actually prove to be right in his wheelhouse; he's meeting up with a solid bunch today, but his best effort places him squarely in the mix.

Turncoat

Both of his wins have been earned with a price tag attached and it would have been nice to have seen him show more in his latest outing when meeting up with N1X allowance rivals racing over the main track here; not that his form has been poor, but others entice more.

So Raise Yourglass

Late running type wasn't able to get anything going in his latest outing but he showed enough in his first three starts to merit at least mild consideration in this spot; that said, he is making his first start beyond six furlongs and he will need to produce an effort that earns him a career best Beyer Speed Figure to win this event.

Cone of Light

Since an encouraging career debut, his form has headed in the wrong direction, and even though the time off prior to this has a chance to serve as a wakeup call, it's tough to place confidence in him against these when looking at his last five starts.

Positively

Multiple graded stakes placed colt is clearly fast enough to run with these but he's also shown himself to be quite content to settle for minor awards through his first 14 starts; he has to be listed among the contenders, but can't be surprised if the best he can do is a runner-up finish.

Valdina Saint

Have to like what he's done since finding himself in a very tough maiden event at Fair Grounds to begin his career, and really like to see what he did at today's distance over the main track here back in September; he might be able to control the early tempo and viewing him as a legitimate gate-to-finish threat.

Spirit of Dixie

His career debut was an encouraging performance but it would have been nice to have seen him build on that effort in his last two starts; this has to be viewed as a tough spot for him to be meeting up with N1X allowance competition; third finisher from latest won next out at Mnr on 10/1 going 5 1/2f vs. N2L alw. rivals with an 89 Beyer.

Squadron A

He's a winner at today's distance over the main track here and he beat one of today's key rivals in Valdina Saint in that race; he projects to sit a favorable trip sitting just off of the early lead and he should be in the clear throughout after breaking from the outside; can't ignore.

Race 8

Adventure At Sea

Considering the layoff, that was a solid effort last month while favored at Woodbine; in her only start over this course, she had the outermost post and still ran on well; lands into a modest field here and can be an early presence at the very least.

La Altena

New face in this crowd was sired by G2 winner Notional who captured 733K and whose progeny have done well first out, winning 9 of 50; the dam involved was unraced and there are no winning siblings to highlight.

Playswiththestars

Improved a bit in that getaway race at Ellis Park when losing to a repeat winner; her local work tab this month is modest, however, and she will have to improve significantly on the stretchout today.

Lunar Surge

New York invader was a game second when negotiating the straightaway mile last month at odds of 7 to 5; should be on or near a similar pace here and benefit; draws comfortable slot and should be a major player but another short price is certain.

Miracle Run

Finished strong when narrowly losing to some of these same rivals 3 weeks ago, earning a personal best Beyer in the process; can upgrade even further if the early fractions are more accelerated today.

Gigglin' Gal

Confirmed rallier benefited by the quick early pace in her last sprint assignment; had no known excuse in her only attempt at this distance; stills seems worth some trifecta inclusion at the very least.

Smart Dancer

One unlucky lady, she has yet to finish in the money but look closely at the overall workout pattern and it is obvious she is on the improve; the mile on the main could be the ideal setting and she will offer excellent betting value here.

Rockport Honey

This is her 8th go in these ranks and she has better pace-pressing ability than most of her field; upgraded in her latest half-mile drill and never seems to get bet; likely to fly under the betting radar once again.

Shesakitty

In definite need of the last start, she made up some ground in the final stages of that comeback; a G3 stakes-placed runner at this oval, she should improve off the tightener and can be a dangerous late presence today.

Sanaaya

Looked home free in the last assignment only to be outfinished in the final yards; her top number was achieved at the course and distance; one of the obvious true contenders again but remember she has to deal with several stretchout sprinters.

Fancy Hat

This filly has rallied well at various distances; outermost post can actually work in her favor as she can settle in for one big, late burst; despite rising from the claiming ranks today, she seems a legitimate threat if the middle move is timed perfectly.

Race 9

Red Roncho

64 days since a key-race graduation defeating the runner-up, show and 7th-place finishers who posted 81-79-72 Beyer speed figures in next-out CD-HAW MSW and KEE-50K-maiden-claiming wins; been working like he is ready to fire a big one; raced right on the lead to win and is the one to catch and beat today.

I'll Call

48 days since just missing at longer; his lone win was at today's Mile distance but way back in the career debut; then finished behind Greengrassofyoming in his only-CD grass start; the 3-back runner-up finisher won next-out in a BEL-optional claimer with a 90 Beyer; late runner figures to save ground then hopes make one run trying to get up in time.

Happy Fella

His last-Mile race was a late run where he was screaming out for more distance then won next out at 8.5F; latest score with 46 days between races and is back here with 33 days off the bench; like I'll Call wants to save ground as much ground possible then make 1 run.

Soul Winner's Fire

Needs a well-timed ride to score noting his lone win at longer than this; thre 3-back dirt winner repeated in a CD-40K claimer with a 78 Beyer; 3-0-0-0 since the IND-maiden breaker and latest with blinkers added did nothing with the confidence level while longer than 1 Mile would seem to be his best distance.

Newfound Zapper

Best races on less-than-firm turf; the last time racing this short was a show finish vs. stakes company when edged by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 85 in his next-out GP-100K stakes win; comes off the 2nd-lowest speed figure of his career while 1-for-1 on CD grass graduating at today's distance.

Hypothetical

48 days since a dull effort posting his lowest Beyer since August, 2012, when racing on the ELP lawn; lone win on CD grass was June, '12 at today's distance scoring from 4th; the 3-back winner repeated in an ELP-optional claimer with an 86 speed figure; 1-for-22-fresh trainer does not add to the appeal.

Red Wings

Lone win on fast dirt he is hoping this gets taken off the lawn; tough call off recent green form when outrun at long odds vs. similar rivals; was pulled up and did not finish the last time sent 1 Mile on the green; the OP-main track has been very good to him but not many answers elsewhere.

Greengrassofyoming

Career-best Beyer on CD grass at longer coming off a 126-day layoff; returns with a 74-day absence for this; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 79 in his next-out AP alw. win; lone win at longer and clearly 1 Mile like for so many entered here seems a little short.

Bingo Kitten

Just 2 career races so still has plenty of upside; the 2nd-time out Beyer regression would be more alarming if the race did not occur on a wet-turf course scoring the unveiling score on firm footing; wish the worktab stood out more but gets a rider change to a hot-CD hand.

Prado Cat

Last time racing this short was a fade showing little stamina at longer in recent races; he is the one to catch; best-CD turf Beyer 69 so would need to move forward in a big way off a career-low speed figure to make a dent here.

Batten the Hatches

Career-best Beyer with blinkers coming on for last while racing on a less-than-firm turf course helped also; with 13 minor awards and 1 win he often races well in defeat like his last 4 in a row; just doesn't ever seem to run a bad race although breaks wide here with a ground-losing post a drawback.

Strong Response

Not a good sign that his only Mile race which was on dirt and came back as a career-low Beyer; raced on the lead that day but faded to beat 1 runner home; exits his lowest Beyer since November, 2012; beat the 2-back show runner who Beyered 71 in his next-out PID alw. win.

Gaelico

64 days since claimed by a high-percentage 1st off the buy barn; the 2-back winner repeated in a CD-25K claimer with an 86 Beyer; working mildly for this while his last Mile test was a fade; off the sprints figures to press the pace wide for this.

Rivendell

Rallied well in defeat the last time sent 1 Mile; is among many entered who seemingly want a lot more yardage than a flat 8F; has been working well for a high-percentage synthetic-to-turf trainer; drawback is he hasn't done much on CD grass in the past.