Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 20, 2013
Race 3
|
Race 4
| Roberto Gato |
| May foal hooked a bear earlier in his career in Havana, who would go on to win the Champagne at Bel then run second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; as for this one, he's back on dirt and back at the distance of his best career effort; he also makes the meaningful move to the maiden claiming ranks; leading contender. |
| Malibu Heir |
| He makes three key moves; he's back on dirt; he's shortening up some in distance; and he's making his first start in the maiden claiming ranks; has done his best work on dirt, and the speed he showed two races ago would serve him well at this five and a half furlong trip; can share. |
| Fried Rice |
| First-time starter is by a stallion who is getting 5 percent juvenile debut winners and 12 percent winners overall from his 2-year-olds; dam was unraced and from six foals to race she has produced four winners; new face on the scene is one to preview in the paddock. |
| Runkle |
| He brings good experience to the table as a runner who has made six starts; he's also seen graded stakes competition, and the start came over the local oval; has natural speed and is back on dirt, and note he has done some of his best work on such a surface; adding to his cause are strong works leading into this race; choice. |
| Da Winner Is |
| First-time starter is by a stallion who, from a limited sample, is getting 15 percent juvenile debut winners and 18 percent winners from his 2-year-olds overall; dam was an eight-time winner and this is her first foal to race; barn wins at an above average rate with its first-time starters. |
| Innovative Fashion |
| He makes the meaningful move to the maiden claiming ranks after starting his career against steeper; has shown speed in his races and that should serve him well at this five and a half furlong trip; like several others in this race, he is one who can share. |
| Cloud Catcher |
| He showed improved speed in his second career start last out when facing steeper at Kee; is now back on dirt after the Polytrack out and note he put up his best career Beyer Figure over the main track at CD; is also spotted to make an impact with the move to the maiden claiming ranks for the first time; win candidate. |
| Silver Tactics |
| By a stallion who is getting 4 percent juvenile debut winners and 11 percent 2-year-old winners overall; dam was unraced and from four foals to race she has produced four winners; like all first-time starters, he is one to preview in the paddock. By Mary Rampellini |
Race 5
| Siegfried Line |
| Takes the most important drop in the game (straight maiden to maiden claiming); that being said, it's also his first time on dirt so he's a question mark in that regard; has shown talent but again, that came on synthetic; at least comes here apparently feeling pretty spry, judging by the bullet :47.20B at TP Saturday. |
| Magical Disguise |
| A couple nice 2nds Sept. 15 and Oct. 13 hinted he was maybe getting the hang of it, and it was enough for patrons at HAW to make him the 9-10 favorite there Oct. 27; well, that didn't go so well as he was well back and could make only modest headway; actually, his biggest drawback is his lack of speed as he routinely leaves himself with a lot to do; yes, he almost overcame it there Oct. 13 but now he's in a new place and also up in value. |
| Vi's Villian |
| Tough to be too enthused; yet to be a factor in the lane in 8 starts; comes out of a race similar to this here Nov. 9 and at least he did show speed, really for the first time, but he still faltered to split the field so there remains plenty of work for him to do if he's to have a say. |
| Summah |
| He's the only 1 in here who actually knows what it feels like to have 'won' as he ran 1st in a race at HOO over a year ago, only to be DQ'd things had not gone well since but suddenly he's jumped up with 2 nice 2nds at IND so he may be rounding back to that kind of form - though we're not racing at HOO or IND this time, are we? |
| Naaz's Boy |
| Difficult to build a case; 4 starts and he's yet to be a factor really at any point in all 4; it would be one thing if he had been facing much tougher and dropping today but his last 2 poor outings both came at this level and on this track. |
| Lasting Impact |
| Been knocking on the door for a while; some good efforts in recent months in Florida, NY and NJ; has shown a bit more early interest in some of his recent races and his last 3 were his first for this price tag after facing more expensive the first 7 starts of his career. |
| Tyler T |
| Seemd on the verge of busting through as he ran 3rd here Sept. 13, 2nd here Sept. 27 (both at this level) and 3rd at KEE for $15K Oct. 20; however, he returned here Nov. 8 to this level but was no factor; maybe that was just one of those days; or, maybe after a string of good races could it be his best chances of come and gone and that now he's on the downside of his form cycle, hmmmmm? |
| Regal Sun |
| Maybe you can forgive the first 4 starts since they all came vs. straight maidens, on synthetic at TP; however, his last 2 came for a tag and both came here, and he wasn't really a factor in either; did at least make a move to get involved on the far turn in that Nov. 8 race here at this level, but he couldn't sustain it, and at least there's no layoff this time, whereas that Nov. 8 run came after over 5 months off; could all mean he can improve...but it still better be by quite a bit. |
| Red Harley |
| Had plenty of chances to be sure (20); that wouldn't be so bad except he really just the 1 effort showing that could be construed as a good race, when he ran 2nd; even so, that came on synthetic at TP for half this tag 11 months ago; lack of speed is a big issue and he's also asked to face more expensive this time, too. By Michael Hammersly |
Race 6
| Next Speaker |
| Gets back to th lawn after proving no match for the winner in his first crack over the local main track; sophomore scored going a bit longer at the level 2 back in his Arlington finale and will be in for sale for the first time since the outfit took him back in the spring; a neck shy of being perfect from 3 sod spins, he has the early interest to secure a good spot down inside and can threaten this bunch from there at an improved price. |
| Expecting Cash |
| Failed to beat either of his foes home in the last out off the turfer and the runner up in that one returns in this spot as well; move back to the lawn should benefit him as he's been quite good in taking 3 of 4 since moved to the footing and his style keeps him within striking range of the front runners early; consider. |
| Band of Joy |
| Made the lead from an outside slot in his Keeneland turf debut last month held pretty well for second money; pace figures to be tougher for him in this spot, though, and the fact he draws inside the other confirmed speed suggests he'll be under the gun from the bell; don't think he'll have enough left late. |
| Joes Blazing Aaron |
| Fresh gelding was in quite a bit over his head trying 12 panels at Belmont last out and he'll turn back to a 5 furlong trip today; he's been ok sprinting in the past and certainly has the early foot to get involved with this bunch from the outset; tough to discount anything put on the track by this owner/trainer combo and a top pilot will get aboard as he returns to the level at which the barn took him at Saratoga, but this guy hasn't seen the winner's circle in 13 months. |
| Gentlemans Code |
| Makes his first start in nearly a full year for a barn that excels with its absentees; gelding knows how to win and his recent drills suggest he's on his toes for the comebacker, but with other speed signed on he could have his hands full from the bell. |
| American Bear |
| Wired limited winners at even money on the Mountaineer main track earlier in the month and now he'll give the lawn another shot; broke his maiden on the Kentucky Downs green and he has proven to be capable sprinting, but has yet to run close to fast enough to step with the best these have to offer; siding against the longshot repeating. |
| Great Attack |
| Stakes winning turf sprinter has had his share of issues as the layoff line run rampant on his page; his first start since the summer wasn't bad and it did come over new footing; fact he returns this quickly is a positive sign for a barn that's done well with limited local starters and though the fact he was in for a tag last time raises questions as to how much he may have left, his back form is rather imposing; with plenty of lick sgined on they'll have him to beat. |
| Strike the Note |
| Wasn't far off of a couple of these when beaten less than 2 lengths by the winner at the level at Keeneland last time out; gelding goes for an outfit that'be been white hot at the stand and his running style could put him in a pretty good spot off the speed in this heat; contender. |
| Ray's Away |
| Adds the hood after coming up short late when turned back to sprint at Keeneland; he'll get a little less real estate to deal with in here, but he did break his maiden in a stake at the trip second time out and sprinting is clearly his best game; can get in the mix for a share. |
| Paddy's Notes |
| Speedster tries better in his first try on the lawn and initial local spin overall; barn hasn't had much of an impact at the stand but they do well with first turfers and this guy's sire does get about 11% winners from his runners stepping on the footing for the initial time; G2 route SW dam never tried the green but one of her 2 foals to try the stuff in the states did win twice over it. |
| Radiant Talent |
| MTO ships back in here off a solid second place finish at the level in Maryland; 4 year old has lick so he should be able to find a great tracking spot from here in a field that looks to feature plenty of early lick and he's been right there in both of his wet track starts; one to beat if the rains wash this off. By Steve Grabowski |
Race 7
| Banshee Warrior |
| The drop is logical after a pair of dull efforts; dam out of the money twice; this is her first to race; Illinois-bred has some things to iron out; needs a turn around. |
| Five Star Dixie |
| She showed promise in the debut but was only a brief threat in Florida; that race came back live though as the third and 4th finishers took MSW races next out, 6th and 8th finishers were 2nd in next and the winner repeated in a $75K opotional with a 90 Beyer; 1 for 14 dam earned almost $20K; 3 of 4 siblings won; two banked 6 figures including 7 for 28 racer and over $150K earner Pleasant Run; in for $23K more than purchase price, she could at least muddle the pace. |
| Southern Sara |
| Backers got to scream for about 46 seconds and then there was silence; 5 for 34 dam banked nearly $70K; family solid as all 4 siblings won including Grade 3 winner and near $600K earner More Than a Reason; there is speed inside and outside of her; not sure the race sets up all that great for her. |
| Andmoreexcuses |
| There are a couple of red flags; first she was off for 2012 and she seemed in a better spot last time for sale but never kicked; at least there are a couple of double winners in the tree; hard to endorse off this form. |
| Palmetto Star |
| Hung wide from marooned slot, she does have a bit of sneaky speed; connections would love to see her mature like top kin, G2 winner and over $300K earner Gabriel Charles; first time on the conventional, would have liked to have seen some local activity. |
| Broken Blues |
| Nearly 5 clear, she has the 2 races to draw from now and Castanon got a chance to figure out what's under the hood; both siblings won but just once each; should be right there when the smoke clears. |
| I'm Straight |
| Troubled in 2 of 3, she has more speed than she just flashed; 2 for 6 dam won at 2, earned almost $40K; lone half bro to race Old Ring took 4 of 22, banked $30K; needs a rebound run. |
| Glitteronthehiway |
| Dead short in the 2013 opener and she was on the wrong surface 2 back; miss can give you a sub :22 quarter if in the mood; drawn right, has tactical speed, major threat for all the marbles. |
| Vice Dancer |
| Would have expected her to flash more zip with the blinkers last time; she has a shot to mature with grace as kin Early Snow was stakes placed at 5 and banked over $175K; back to Rocco and if she reverts to the October debut, she could make some serious noise. By Brian Mulligan |
Race 8
| It's a Bad Rapit |
| The only-dirt race on his form was a solid effort rallying well in a sprint; wish he fared better in his only other race at today's distance which was a last-place finish on turf but a great sign that he exits a new-Beyer speed figure Top 1st time for a new trainer; the 2-back runner-up finisher graduated next out in a HAW-MSW race with a 70 Beyer. |
| Air Squadron |
| Scored a win over the CD-main track at today's distance in September but was DQ'd for drifitng out while the race looks better since the show runner Beyered 88 in his next-out KEE-MSW win; the 2-back winner repeated in a CD-optional claimer with a 93 speed figure. |
| Gun Battle |
| Away since his 2nd straight double-digit length loss when adding Lasix did not produce the desired results; likes to be forwardly placed and while stamina is a concern he managed to hold on for the place money in his only other race traveling today's distance. |
| Thunder |
| Needed last start following more than a 1-year layoff; did not show anything 1st blinkers and would need a massive-form improvement to topple Air Squadron here; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 70 in his next-out CD-MSW win. |
| Empire Taker |
| Needed last start while a wet-main track was not to his liking; his last-fast dirt start in April was a solid effort chasing the winner who repeated in a CD-optional claimer with an 89 Beyer; the 3-back winner repeated in an AP alw. with an 82 speed figure; wish he showed better form in his only CD-fast track start an 8th-place finish. |
| Tarpy's Surprise |
| Has not raced past 6.5F yet; sire only raced on synthetic surfaces; in his only route race captured a Grade 1 event; dam finished 6th in her only dirt-route attempt; 1 winning sibing from 3 other foals to race; none raced in routes. |
| Ebullition (ARG) |
| Has not raced past 6.5F yet; stakes-winning sire took 2-of-6 dirt routes in Argentina; SW-dam took 1-of-6 dirt routes; neither foal to race in North American routes is a winner; working sharply enough on CD dirt to project that a significant improvement is on the way. |
| Sneaky Blowout |
| Has yet to race back to his debut-field-best Beyer at 7F; latest was poor making it 2 straight subpar efforts off the August claim from a high-win percentage trainer; zero-gate speed in his 1st-CD dirt test with a career-low Beyer does not help the confidence level. |
| Top Priority |
| 47 days since fading on KEE synthetic but fired much better on CD dirt during career; was screaming out for more yardage in last when defeated by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 82 in a next-out CD-MSW win; the show finisher from last posted a 77 speed figure in his next-out CD-MSW victory. By Art Gropper |
Race 9
| Art of the Game |
| It would have been nice to have seen this G1 tested miss show more in her turf debut in her latest outing but maybe she deserves another chance to see what she can do racing over the green stuff when considering that she's out of a multiple G1 stakes placed dam who won 3 of 17 turf starts for 283k. |
| Super Sky |
| Half-sister to stakes winner Dyna's Lassie (4-12, 182k over turf) goes out for a top barn and looks like one of the more legitimate options to consider in here, but she does have to prove that she can produce a top try at today's 1 1/16m distance. |
| Shanon Nicole |
| Majestic Warrior has been a poor influence as a turf sire, but this Maker-trained miss has shown enough in her four turf starts to merit contender status against these; third-place finisher from latest won next out at GP on 11/9 going 1m over turf in a 100k stakes with a 74 Beyer; Albarado won with his only mount for this barn at this meeting. |
| Academic Probation |
| This is a barn and rider that team up with success, and after a fine winning debut performance from off the pace, this filly outfinished today's rival Shanon Nicole in the G3 Jessamine at Keeneland at second asking; third-place finisher from latest won next out at GP on 11/9 going 1m over turf in a 100k stakes with a 74 Beyer; must consider. |
| Abbys Promise |
| Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 3 of 13 starts for 22k, including 1 of 3 turf starts for 7k; runner up from debut won next out at Haw on 11/7 going 6f vs. MSW rivals with a 56 Beyer. |
| Frazier's Pegasus |
| Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 2 of 17 starts for 119k, including 1 of 9 turf starts for 65k; this might prove to be a tough next step for this filly after beating a field of 50k MCL's at first asking. |
| Annulment |
| Have to respect what this filly has shown through her first three starts and she stepped up with a sharp winning performance while making only her second start over turf in her latest outing; lightly raced filly still has plenty of upside to consider and she looks like she fits right in with these. |
| Awesome Jill |
| Pioneer of the Nile has made a fine impression with his turf starters from a limited sample, and that might be a reason to give this miss another chance to see what she can do racing over turf; it doesn't hurt to see that she goes out for a barn that has been live at this meeting. |
| Ruslana |
| It's certainly fair to question her at today's 1 1/16m distance, but she commands her share of respect based on what she's shown in two of her first three starts sprinting; runner-up from latest returned to win next out here on 11/1 going 7f vs. MSW rivals with a 69 Beyer; her dam was multiple stakes placed while winning 4 of 14 turf starts for 104k. |
| She's Coal Fired |
| Brother Derek is not off to a good start as a turf sire and this speedy filly does appear to be the weaker of the two Ward-trained fillies in here; Davis has won with 19 of 65 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013. |
| Ready's Legend |
| She took a step in the right direction in breaking her maiden at Hawthorne in her latest start but she's going to need to be ready for a sharper performance to threaten the top contenders in here; third place finisher from latest returned to win next out at Haw on 11/2 going 1m 70y vs. MSW rivals with a 58 Beyer. |
| Lady Caroline |
| Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam was winless from five starts, and she didn't make a turf start; have to respect her as an early pace factor, but this looks like a tough spot for her turf debut. |
| In Tall Cotton |
| She had to be dropped in with 25-20k maiden claimers at AP two races back to earn her first career win and she didn't make much noise in her first attempt against winners in her latest outing; this looks like a difficult assignment for her and an extreme outside post awaits in the event that she draws in. By Brian Pochman |
Race 10
| Pollinator |
| No firepower shown since that fair debut in September where he made up a decent amount of ground; wheels right back and races for a tag for only the second time but still have doubts he can make a major impact today. |
| Storm Haboob |
| Firster was sired by the unraced Power Storm whose offspring have won 2 of 33 debuts; the dam involved won 2 of 16 and 13K; among the winning siblings is 83K earner Power Emblem; modest breeze pattern on view. |
| Tazdue |
| Has an improving first gear in his favor and set good fractions at a longer distance in that last encounter; should move forward with this class relief and is worth some exotic wagering inclusion if front-runners have dominated the card. |
| Nashville Pred |
| Broke alertly but then raced wide before retreating in his maiden voyage; his sire won 1 of 11 and 4K while the dam won 3 of 22 and 39K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; can upgrade over a fast surface. |
| Wilder Days |
| Beginner hails from top-notch sprinter Kodiak Kowboy who won 1.66 million and whose progeny are 4 for 24 first time out; the dam was without a tally in 7 attempts; this is her sole foal to start. |
| Iced Over |
| Limited workout activity for this beginner; the colt's sire won multiple G1s and 4.91 million; descendants of Utopia are 6 for 120 as far as winning their first assignment; the dam was unraced; among the winning sibs is 56K earner Thin Ice. |
| Hi Torree |
| He has tailed off since that commendable showing first time; drops way down the ladder for this venture, however, and can be more of a presence if avoiding another extra-wide journey; reverts to the original rider now. |
| Roll All Knight |
| Little staying power shown thus far but his latest half-mile breeze was a distinct improvement; may benefit by the turnback in distance but a fast track would be necessary; very puzzling item today. |
| Bullmania |
| One of the main speeds to consider in this event; if he can get the jump on Tazdue, his chances move up dramatically; son of excellent sprinter Benny the Blue is worth some serious follow-up. |
| Brahms Flyer |
| Fine showing first time out considering the troubled beginning; his sire won 4 of 27 and 238K; the dam never raced; among the winning sibs is 14K earner Hifalutin Lady; can earn a share at a healthy price if a speed duel develops. |
| Tribunus |
| Tries blinkers after failing to hit the board thus far; new equipment may enable him to get into the race sooner and he should offer a generous price once again; a more accelerated early pace would help his cause. |
| My Best Beau |
| Newcomer was sired by Belmont Stakes winner Lemon Drop Kid who won a total of 3.24 million (his progeny have scored in 9 percent of their debuts); the dam lost her only start and this is her sole foal to compete; tough outpost to overcome. By Jim Kachulis |