Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 17, 2013

Race 2

Tale of the Stage

Shows an average set of breezes for the most part; his sire won a G2 stakes and 360K overall (progeny of Tale of the Cat have scored in 154 out of 923 debuts); the dam won 3 of 11 attempts and 16K; winning siblings include 125K earner Valiancy.

My Harlequin Man

Exits an above average race at Indiana where he was a brief pace presence; makes the dangerous first visit to the claiming scene and can improve substantially as a result; can last for a share at a healthy price.

Scott Man

Cut the corner nicely in his local debut and finished strong; his sire won the Belmont Stakes and 2.76 million overall; the dam involved was unraced; among the winning sibs is 239K earner Syriana's Song; worth some follow-up.

Allocate

A distant fourth in the last run but he had a legitimate excuse in that defeat; prompted the issue against a solid group 2 back and is running for the lowest price tag of his career today; appears to be nicely positoned.

Zydeco Band

Decent effort a month ago despite the lengthy layoff; his sire won multiple G2s and 447K while the dam was unraced; there are no winning siblings to highlight; steady breezes this month add to the appeal.

Desert Dew

Faded in his debut run over the lawn; the colt's sire was a G3 winner who notched 447K while the dam won 7 of 17 and 189K; among the winning siblings is 330K earner Spider Rock; latest breeze at five-eighths suggests he is at the ready.

Broussard

Beginner hails from First Defence, a G1 winner who notched 580K (his progeny have won 6 of 53 initial starts); the dam never raced; winning sibs include G3 turf winner Testify who had lifetime earnings of 575K.

Race 4

It Happened Again

Grade 3 winner will appreciate the easier company with the move to a straight claiming race for the first time since 2010: horse that finished second in his latest was coming off a second in the Grade 3 Ack Ack here Sept. 13; he might not have cared for the wet tracks in his last couple of starts but either of his last two races on fast tracks win this; the pick.

Sniper

He waltzed through his conditions at Woodbine while mostly running against Ontario-breds but he hasn't been able to win as an older horse; new trainer has strong stats in all the relevant categories and the past five years has a 19% strike rate with new shooters; first time on dirt and it would have been nice to have seen at least one work here plus his best races have been sprinting; prefer others.

Sky Alert

Just two starts this year they both came last winter; the past five years Foley is 0/8 with horses coming back from a break of 180 days or less; horse that won his latest came back to win the Grade 3 Skip Away in his next start; he ran well here as a 3-year-old last year but we're just going to watch and see how he comes back from the long layoff.

The Best Glacier

Second half of the entry was claimed out of his latest and the past five years Amoss has a 30% strike rate when he runs them back the first time; this guy had an excuse when he finished fourth at this level here two back and maybe he didn't care for Polytrack in his first try over a synthetic surface in his latest at Keeneland; like the other half of the entry better but given the strong stats Amoss has with newly claimed horse we won't be shocked if he fires a big shot.

Achaemenes

He earned his career-best Beyer Speed Figure over this surface in June and he this will be the first time he's back on dirt since he couldn't keep up going 1 1/14 miles in a stakes race at Prairie Meadows; nice effort in his latest at Keeneland and if can avoid getting into a duel with Double Rah Rah he should be right there at the finish; contender.

Double Rah Rah

4-year-old has improved quite a bit since he came back from a two-month layoff and he should be full of confidence after romping in the slop in his latest; that was his second straight win here and he ran okay when he finished third in a $40K optional race at Indiana between his two wins; he's stepping up in price but he's just too sharp to ignore and if they don't get carried away up front he could make a lot of noise late.

Moe Man

He was on a bit of a roll until he tackled Grade 3 company in the Ack Ack and we can probably toss his latest as it came over a sloppy track plus he was coming off a layoff; easy to imagine him moving forward with a race under his belt and with his good tactical speed he should get a nice trip from a stalking position; not out of the question.

Race 5

Emmy Lu Slew

Makes her main track sprint debut and the latest breeze showed progression; her sire won a G2 stakes and 338K overall; the dam did not compete; among the winning siblings is 34K earner Classy Colinda.

Crossed Hearts

Has shown some fair late kick in several of her starts and draws much more favorably today than last time; should receive a solid pace today if all runners go and that will work to her benefit; should be a late factor.

Erzulie Dantor

Scheduled to remove the blinkers after a sharp pacesetting effort at Keeneland last month; it not getting into another speed duel today, her chances increase; goes back to original rider Prescott who will try to steal the show.

Olivia B

Distinct improvement in that second run and she cuts back in distance once again; her prolific sire won a G2 and 360K while the dam went zero for 4 lifetime; among the winning siblings is 30K earner Natty Boh.

Sweets N Treats

Descends many levels today after coming out of a key race, an event that featured a blowout winner; her sire was undefeated, a multiple G1 victor who captured 749K; the dam won 4 of 10 and 28K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Golden B. J.

Blinker removal may help somewhat as should moving off the fence; she had plenty of trouble in the last run while giant odds; still in search of her first money finish, she cannot be given the main vote here despite her unlucky history.

Shaniko Spirit

In that maiden voyage, she was burdened with the extreme outside post; her sire won a G2 and 388K while the dam scored in 2 of 15 appearances earning 12K; sib to 102K earner Ofourooneofive; can upgrade over a fast surface.

Know in Advance

Ran the best race of her career only 9 days ago showing much more in the way of early speed and endurance; the trouble with that effort, however, is that the half-mile fraction was very soft; will have to overcome a much swifter tempo now; mixed signals.

Race 6

Gallant Eagle (IRE)

The class is there off the tough beat in the Grade 3 in August; like the fact he has natural speed but he can track and get it done; show horse in the G3 cashed next out in a $50K optional with an 85 Beyer; can't escape fact he is 0 for 17 on grass.

Arch of Titus

Game in the win last time and note show horse was 4 clear; he has shown the ability to close into a slow pace and that's a nice trait to have; popular and successful the last couple of times on grass; no kick two back, maybe he didn't adore the synthetic; interesting.

Niederzel

Never easy to concede 10 or 15 lengths early on; 5th and 8th finishers in last took $5K claimers next out and the winner was 2nd a head in a $5K starter; he has trained forwardly since the last effort; look for him in the picture late if at all.

Ripinandatearin

Must respect his consistency; soph has proven he can handle any kind of going so there are options there; a press and fade situtation the last time on this course; must pick it up from there.

Flattermejim

After a dismal 2012, this guy has turned it around big time; hung wide in last, and note show horse 2 back took a $5K claimer next out, lost next pair; could easily be enticed into gimmick action.

Bailoutbobby

Last race was his best since the maiden breaker and the 9/25 winner repeated here in a $15K claimer next out; solid middle move last time to get within a half of the leader and then he just kept going; these are his friends; repeat well within the scope.

Barzini

Had excuse of the slop the first time for Maker, and note he was hung out to dry from the marooned slot in last; maybe he needed the race to boot; 8/9 place horse took a $25K Delaware seller next out, lost next several; must respect everything from this barn.

Tater Downs

Considering the mud being kicked in his face last time, the race was not all that bad; 4 exited the Saratoga finale to win next out; both Makers must be respected.

Esoteric

Repeatedly proven off the bench, he had a valid excuse in the only poor effort in the last 2 years; note he graduated in the big field so that will not intimidate him here; love the series of drills coming to this race; look out.

Exultant

Steadied last time on surface he has yet to win on; best when sent along, he could have just been pitched a tad too high in last; look for rider to send hard and hope for the best.

Noble Doss

Life and death for the lone win this year; only once slice since and he didn't scare anybody that day; he does have much more speed than he just showed; note he was just off the :45 and change pace in May; off fence, not impossible task.

Sneakin Away

Two excuses last time: the company and the off going; 7/31 place horse cashed next out in a $25K optional, then lost next pair; winner 8/31 cashed twice since, the last in a starter handicap at Indy with a 91 Beyer; Indy bred could rebound here.

Hazards of Love

All he does is win races; he has a solid stalk and rally style and he has beaten this caliber foe when bet like a good thing; note place horse in last was nearly 6 clear; nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 25 of 48; one to beat if he suits up.

Manx

Pushed wide in race he had to need; he got away with a slow pace in the last win and the spotty race record is a legit concern; wide in last pair, has some things to iron out.

Perfectly At Home

Gelding takes a lateral trainer move; only one of his 4 wins came on grass; he can be placed anywhere and still fire; note wraps added in last; too sharp not to take seriously.

Practical Justice

Apparently not much of a work horse but he has tactical speed; he was boosted a bit when the winner of last took a $25K Penn National optional next out; a dull fifth in the last return effort; not in the hunt the other time on the local grass; would be careful here.

Thunder Affair

Look for Rocco to send hard here; he's run decently on the local grass without cashing; could see him sitting a stalk and rally trip; value should be there if he gets a chance to roll.

Race 7

Rumba

Tries dirt after fading off the tracking trip first out at Keeneland; filly will move to the fence for this and maybe that helps encourage more early lick out of her for a barn that does ok with its second out runners; Albarado goes elsewhere, but maybe she lasts a little longer today.

Concert Pianist

Just missed second out at Ellis but hasn't shown much stamina since that sharp placing; filly is another with early foot and she should again find herself close from the bell in a field in which she holds a serious experience edge; consider.

Avicii

Ran big from off the pace first time out in Canada and now she'll try dirt in her initial start for this new barn; she's had a few morning drills to get acquainted with the local footing and her 3 winning sibs include 2 sprint winners; contender.

Unbridled Forever

Gets Lasix for the cut back to sprint after showing solid early interest at 8 panels first time out; filly goes for a barn that does significantly better with runners who have had a race so expect she'll be set to take a big step forward and her lone winning sib earned 2 sprint scores; thinking she'll prove to be the one to beat.

Brendamargaretsbiz

Sire gets 13% winners from his debut runners and the limited route winning dam's lone foal to race was winless from 6 starts; barn has won just once on the year and this gal's drills don't appear to be too much.

Resistivity

Took a little bit of money first out at Keeneland and wasn't beaten all that much after getting caught in a wide spot; she returned to work sharply here for an excellent second out barn and a top pilot gets aboard; kin to 5 multiple winners, she has a right to take a good step forward today and that makes her dangerous.

Chocolate On Tap

Sire gets 12% winners and the unraced dam dropped one winner who scored 3 times (2 on turf and one routing); barn's been on a poor run with its newcomers and though the local breezes are on the improve they still aren't all that much, but they did shell out 260K for this gal last year.

Mizzen Miss

Moved to the lead from a wide spot first time out here and didn't have a lot left late; she's got a right to move forward off the try for a barn that boasts excellent second out numbers, but she's stuck in the outside slot here and could again find herself compromised with ground loss.

Race 8

Pulpit's Revenge

Sire is 50-for-386 with 2-year-old debut runners; is the 1st foal out of an unraced dam; the rail draw can be a tricky-post position for any inexperienced runner; mild worktab on display for a 13%-winning 1ster trainer since 2012.

Calm Water

Sire is 14-for-148 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an 0-for-6 dam (24K) who's only other foal to race is full-Grade 1-stakes winner Emollient (5-for-11, 1M) who finished 2nd in her career debut then won 2nd-time out; has been working steadily for an 8%-debut trainer.

Flashy Dimontina

Great sign that her 1st-dirt start represents a field-best Beyer speed figure outracing her 33-1 odds 1st Lasix and front wraps; the runners with experience lack gate speed and she may end up on the lead or close to it which makes her even more dangerous; off last the added half furlong helps the cause although wish the workout for this was more enticing; the pick.

Bird Rockette

Cutting back in distance and having race experience under her belt are both positives for an improved effort however would have to move forward in a big way to win this; the barn does not win much with 1sters enhancing the thoughts that a significant-move forward is on the way today.

Flashy Ride

Sire is 28-for-193 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 6-for-17 stakes-winning dam (227K) who produced 6 winners from 8 other foals to race including 173K-earner Nuclear Wayne (4-for-12, 173K); trainer rarely wins with 1sters.

Smart N Soft

1st Lasix after the debut defeat where she broke far back then did not rally strongly; rider wins 36% for the trainer since 2012 but not much else to bite into for this; trainer is winless with his last 13-juvenile starters and 2-for the last-44 with MSW runners.

Fredette

Flashy Dimontina handled her in last when she tired in deep stretch; worked a sharp-3F workout for this so a 2nd-time improvement seems a strong possibility; has plenty of room to move forward off the dull unveiling.

Senior Prom

Sire is 38-for-388 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a SW dam (6-for-43, 187K) who produced 3 winners from 4 other foals to race including 54K-earner Mister Monsieur (5-for-36); has been working nicely for a 9%-debut trainer; based on the worktab seems the best of the 1sters and is the one to beat.

Let It Snow

Sire is 36-for-283 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 3-for-11 dam (145K) who's only other foal to race is 4-0-1-1 Having Abig Middle (18K); trainer has 2 firster winners since 2012 which is a big plus and prefer 1sters breaking outsider rather than bogged down inside; contender.

Race 9

Sweet Nkosi

A. P. Warrior has been a poor influence as a turf sire but it's tough to ignore the much improved performance that this filly showed up with in her second turf attempt in her latest outing, and that was her first start sprinting over turf; note that she beat a few of today's rivals in that race.

Costly

14-time winner has some early speed to throw at these after breaking from an inside post, but she doesn't figure to get away with anything early on, and her recent form hasn't been her best; Morales has won with 5 of 17 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Lignite

She has a chance to prove to be the dominant early speed in here, something that is always dangerous in a five-furlong turf dash like this, and if she performs the way she did two starts back at KD, she can leave these behind to battle it out over the minor awards; Davis has won with 19 of 65 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Queen Negwer

She ran a nice race sprinting over this turf course back in May, but that level of performance hasn't been common for her, and she can't afford to show up with anything less against these; respect the presence of Lanerie, but others entice more.

Trippin' Along

Stakes placed miss shows up for a barn that has been very live over the past few months and she figures to appreciate the drop in class for this; her lack of early speed is a concern, especially in a field this size, but she's shown the ablity to pack a strong stretch punch.

The Real McCoy

She's seeking her first turf win in her 10th turf attempt and she'll have to find a way to take her game to another level to get the better of this field; her lack of early speed might lead to her being outrun every step of the way.

I'mclassyandsassy

Sire wins with approximately 18% of his turf starters and dam was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; this filly is a 1/2 to stakes placed Vigilant Site (8-35, 137k, including 5 of 19 turf starts for 94k); Rocco has won with 7 of 27 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Gator Zone

Stakes winning filly hasn't run a bad race from six starts and she was a beaten favorite when finishing behind a couple of today's rivals in her latest outing; she's out of a multiple stakes winning dam who won 10 of 60 starts for 570k, including 5 of 41 turf starts for 405k, and this miss is a 1/2 to multiple graded stakes winner Miz Ida (7-15, 475k over turf); must consider.

Bully Girl

Although she's enjoyed some success from her five starts sprinting over turf, her best effort doesn't quite measure up to the top contenders in here; going to look for her to be involved in the running early on, but expecting others to have more to offer through the final furlong.

Bares Tripper

She's a stakes winner racing over dirt and she's shown enough in her three attempts sprinting over turf to be taken seriously in this spot; she's one of two live looking horses signed on in here for the Ward barn.

Regal Joanne

Half-sister to Insideonoutside (3-13, 104k, including 2 of 9 turf starts for 75k) goes out for Ramsey and Maker, and Leparoux has won with 6 of 12 mounts for this barn at the current meeting; connections alone command respect, but she will need her sharpest performance to date to get the job done.

Crookedpathtoglory

She usually shows up and gives a good account of herself and she's made some late noise since being placed over turf two starts ago; not putting her at the top of the list, but a spot underneath in the exotics doesn't appear to be out of the question.

Hurricane Girl

There are a number of horses in the main body of this race that have run well over dirt, but this filly has won 9 of 18 career starts and she will have to be viewed in the light of a top contender if she gets to go in this spot; this barn is very dangerous after a claim and Goncalves has won with 36 of 129 (28%) starters for this barn in 2013.

Ready Express

She has run well in her two starts over dirt surfaces with moisture in them, but this race doesn't figure to come up soft if it has to be taken off the turf, and she's likely going to need to produce a career best effort to come out on top.

Spring Formal

She might be capable of getting herself into the mix against these on her best day, but it's fair to question if she's ready for a top try after what she showed against a field of 25k claimers at Hawthorne in her latest outing; an extreme outside post awaits in the event that she draws in.

Race 10

Curb Appeal

An interesting play today despite the added distance; she may relax in the early going with the scheduled blinker removal and there is not that much pace opposition on view; see how inside sprint types have fared on the card and adjust your opinion.

Case Made

Made 2 moves in that turf debut this summer, a key race; her sire won 986K including a G3 score; the dam won 3 of 12 starts and 124K; among the winning siblings is 147K earner Truth Will Tell; fair half-mile breezes this month.

Charlize

Yet to be a serious contender although she finally draws a comfortable post position; doubt that the third start off the bench angle will propel her to a top finish, however; cannot endorse at this time.

Lucky Sunny

Has flashed some early speed, something that is lacking in this field; her sire won multiple G2s and 2.24 million in total; the dam won 1 of 6 attempts 50K: winning siblings include 101K earner Ride Me Fast.

Amaoldfashiondgirl

She retreated early in her local debut last month but might have been compromised by the sloppy conditions; like Charlize, above, she has been very unfortunate in the post position draw for most of her career.

Bourbon Beauty

On pace cross-reference, she can be a true contender today; her sire won 419K including a G1 tally while the dam won 4 of 46 and 63K; winning siblings include 3K earner Stolen Kiss; seems worth some inclusion in exotic wagering plans.

Grace and Grit

Can inherit a major share again if there is another pace meltdown; captured the show in the last assignment when defeated by a blowout winner; needs to work out a better journey here to upgrade.

Friendly Wildcat

Beginner hails fro Margie's Wildcat who was zero for 2 lifetime but whose offspring have won 7 of 63 debuts; the dam never made it to the starting gate; this is her only foal to compete; moderate work tab on display.

Lady Mickelson

Firster was sired by multiple G3 winner Ecclesiastic who amassed 346K and whose progeny have won 3 of 56 initial starts; the dam won 3 of 17 and 57K; sib to 64K earner Bougainville; decent gate breezes of late.

Granny Grump

A clear-cut second last time out but had an inside trip when doing so; despite this outermost post, there is not that gate speed in this contest and she should be able to grab a decent stalking position in the early stages.