Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 16, 2013

Race 2

Jardenia

She's been favored in 9 of her last 12 starts, and has won six times during that period; makes a notable class move as she goes from the $5K starter allowance ranks to the $25K claiming ring, and note others in here are dropping in; in her favor is her record, and the fact that she has had good success at CD; contender.

Kaminari

She's a class play as one who has been facing steeper; hooked a quality field last out and while the competition was quite tough, perhaps she was also impacted by the wet track; barn adds blinkers, which is a high percentage move for Margolis; can be closer to the pace than some of these on the stretch out from seven furlongs, perhaps tracking Seans Silverdancer; leading contender.

Katy Lied

She will be giving up recency to these as she has not raced since May; is spotted well for her return, as she moves to the $25K claiming ranks after facing $40K foes in her most recent start; also like that she gets back to the main track after a turf experiment; comebacker is one to preview in the paddock.

La Malaguena

She ran a solid race for this price last out at Kee, when she was beaten just over a length for everything at a demanding kind of distance of seven furlongs; figures to be sharp for the move back to two turns, and note she is a multiple winner at the route trip; she's also a winner on the main track at CD; can at least share.

Slander

She makes a couple of notable moves; for starters, she's back on dirt after racing on synthetic and turf surfaces in her last two starts; she also shortens up some in distance after racing over a mile and an eighth in those races; figures to be making her case in the late stages on the cutback in distance; seeks first win on dirt.

Sense of a Woman

She's coming off a close fourth-place finish at CD, and for the effort earned what ranks as this field's best last-race dirt Beyer Figure; put in a nice closing bid in that one-mile race and now returns to the mile and a sixteenth distance over which she has registered all three of her career wins; also like that in her last start she was an odds-on favorite for a price similar to this one; win candidate.

Annafromindiana

Indiana-bred has made her way back to Churchill Downs, where in the past she has raced over the turf course; now tries the local main track and note she is a multiple winner on dirt 'back home' in Indiana; like a number of these, she is one who seems in line for at least a piece.

Seans Silverdancer

She might prove to be the controlling speed in this spot; she makes the move from seven-eighths to a mile and a sixteenth and note she was part of the pace in her most recent out; ran well at this level, too, and might be sitting on a peak race in her third start since June; choice.

Race 3

Lemon Hero

Moves to the fence for the first local start after spending her career in Southern California; new outfit does well with this type first out and this gal has a solid one turn surface resume; she doesn't have a lot of early foot and that can hurt her from here, but she does figure to pack a solid punch late; contender.

Ms Hoochie Coochie

Fresh filly moves bac to the lawn for a barn that does well with its turf sprinters; her lone surface sprint in Louisiana was pretty good and it came over a course with give in it which could benefit her in here; broke her maiden fresh on dirt last winter.

Happy Everafter

Lightly raced gal broke her maiden in her lone turf spin and it came at this trip; she's got speed and the barn does a solid job both fresh and on the surface switch; numbers are light, but maybe the return to the green helps her improve quickly; price will likely be big.

Bye Bye Bunting

Beat a claiming field of her peers on synthetic footing and now she'll step up in her return to the green; she did run ok on the Kentucky Downs lawn last time, but don't know that she's good enough to go with some of these; have to side against the repeat.

Clever Gretel

First part of the Frost coupling returns to the lawn after tracking in the off the turfer off the break; she's got speed and her out of her initial turf spin at the trip this summer was good enough to make her a serious threat if repeated in this spot; current form is a question, but at a price she's worth a look.

Spanish Academy

Canadian shipper makes her first local start for a barn that's won just once race this year; gray wasn't beaten much against cheaper in her Woodbine finale, but that came over synthetic footing and she's yet to hit the board in 4 career spins on the green; new pilot has had a rough go of it at the stand; looking elsewhere.

Anna Pavlova

Broke her maiden in her lone turf sprint spin in the spring and she'll make her first start in nearly half a year here; new outfit worked her sharply earlier in the week for this so maybe the hood removal agrees with her and a top pilot sees fit to take the call.

Terfaashah

Barn is profitable with its first time turfers though they don't boast a recent turf sprint winner; filly is by a sire who is 0 for 4 with his initial turf starters and the limited sprint winning dam finished off the board in her lone surface start prior to dropping this gal.

Kicker

Gaines-Gentry's first half makes her return from 8 months on the shelf while returning to the lawn; barn does well with today's applicable angles and they have gotten off to a nice start here, but note that her lone solid effort did come in a heat moved to a wet main track; she's kin to a couple of surface winners including G1 SW, 703K earner Startac, but she's had her chances to take to the footing.

Laser Cat

Went gate to wire to break her maiden first out at Tampa Bay Downs with a solid number earlier in the year and hasn't been sighted since; she'll get a solid bug pilot for her first with winners and she should be prominent from the outset, but the recent worktab is light and maybe that means she'll be tighter next time.

Holiday Drama

Got going too late at a big price at the level while routing from the outside slot at Keeneland last time; filly doesn't have much sprint experience and this is a significantly shorter trip than she's used to but she will get pace to run at and if she can avoid trouble, figures to be rolling late.

Miz Minnie Moon

Outside drawn maiden tries winners in this spot while tackling the lawn for the initial time; her best effort thus far has come on synthetic footing and she does have a little bit of early foot; sire gets 7% first surface winners and this gal is the first foal to race out of an unraced dam; longshot again.

Dream Softly

Gaines-Gentry's other half got her nose down to break her maiden second out on synthetic footing and now she'll look to get on the green; filly did overcome a rough start in that one but her sire doesn't do much with his initial turfers and the unraced dam's lone foal to try this footing was 0 for 7 over it.

Songlyrics

Frost's other half tries to get back to the lawn if scratches enable her to go; AE has speed and her lone turf spin wasn't bad but she could find herself stuck in a wide spot if she's able to meet the starter here.

Race 4

Dr. Ireland

Most runners improve 2nd-time out and he has plenty of room to move forward off the 9-week absence; has not raced past 7F; sire went 1-for-2 in dirt routes including a Grade 1 score; is out of an unraced dam who produced Mile-dirt winner Doggie Bear.

Notaninja

A 2nd-time out Beyer speed figure regression racing 1st time on CD dirt which is not a good sign; has not traveled past 6.5F; sire went 2-for-3 in dirt routes; is the 1st foal out of a dam who finished 6th in her only dirt route; hopes the added yaradge helps the cause after slow-breaking sprints.

Ephram S

Expected him to show better gate speed in last off the 2-back race when racing 1st time in a maiden claimer but in latest middle moved then had nothing; drops to lowest spot ever for the 2nd straight start; the 3-back winner repeated in a KEE allowance with an 84 Beyer.

Mr Supernova

Mixed reviews in his 2 races off the claim when adding blinkers; expected a lot more run from last on a wet-race track especially off the May-exacta finish in the slop; not a great sign that he did not fire at all 1st time on CD dirt; the 3-back winner and show finishers Beyered 68-49 in next-out IND wins.

April One

Good sign that he saved his best Beyer for last 1st time on CD dirt but will likely need an even further improvement to land a major share; has not raced past 6.5F; sire was a G3-SW at 1M on dirt; dam won twice at today's distance on dirt; is a kin to 6-time dirt-Mile winner Always In Front.

Ham I Am

The wet track produced another dull effort while late runner posted his best Beyer during spring of 2013 on IND-fast dirt; removed blinkers 3-back then ran well in defeat but has not fired in any of his 3 CD-dirt defeats which makes him a tough call.

Political Man

Has not shown much in 2 other races without blinkers on but they are removed for this; a long layoff off the 1st-exacta finish of his career; steady worktab for a trainer who's won with at least one 180-day-plus absentee since 2012; major-class drop; 2-back faced 2-next-out 75-64 Beyer $12,500 claiming and 20K-maiden claiming winners.

Paciencia Y Fe

Exits his lowest Beyer since June and that makes 2 double-digit length defeats on CD dirt; snapped a 2-race IND exacta streak for latest when long odds then racing to that long price when fading; back in just 6 days for a high-percentage trainer with the short-return angle.

Perfect Prince

In a race without much other pace he seems the one to catch here; strong effort in defeat off the 86-day absence when defeated by Optionality and seems set to turn the tables today; been strong in all 3-dirt starts with the lone concern whether he will have enough stamina to go all the way here with Better Tomorrow likely pressing from the gate; the pick.

A Better Tomorrow

Has often disappointed a 5-time beaten-betting favorite; posted a 4-0-0-0 record since his only exacta finish and field-best Beyer on BEL turf tiring late at 1 Mile; has Perfect Prince to catch here; was claimed off a career-low Beyer and from a high-win-percentage trainer which are not good-win angles.

Collins

Career-low Beyer 1st time on dirt and racing on a wet oval for the 1st time; some IND runners do not fire in Louisville and he was one of them in latest; the 2-back winner and show finishers Beyered 68-49 in next-out IND 6K-claiming and 6K-maiden claiming wins.

Optionality

A wet track produced an exaxta finish in last while he did not show up nearly as well on a fast oval 2-back; hopes to track Perfect Prince and A Better Tomorrow early then get 1st run on the closers; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 68 in a next-out KEE-15K-maiden claiming win.

Diamond Drop

Lone-route race was on turf when finishing last; took 4-1 betting money exiting a career-best Beyer on CD dirt racing on today's surface for the 1st time; the 2-back winner repeated in a KEE allowance with an 84 Beyer.

Magical Disguise

New trainer after posting a dull effort on dirt when bet to under even-money odds; just missed 1st time on dirt 2-back with a career-best Beyer so which horse shows up for this making his 3rd start in 34 days; liked the 11 post 2-back so some hope drawing outside for this will provide a bounce-back effort.

Race 5

Capriani

Makes only her third start of the year and did show much more in the way of prompting ability in the latest run; turnback in distance may work in her favor and latest half-mile breeze was fair; might be overlooked in the wagering.

Candiebelle

Broke slowest from rail position in her maiden voyage 2 months ago; her sire won multiple G1s on the turf while earning 1.65 million; the dam won 1 of 13 and 76K; among the winning siblings is 249K earner Crown Isle.

Flirty Birdie

Newcomer was sired by Heart of the Storm who went zero for 6 in his career and whose offspring have won 1 of 17 initial attempts; the dam won 3 of 28 and 55K; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Peggy's a Ten

Very tough beat at Indiana last out and she was caught extremely wide in her sole appearance here in the spring; that particular effort was against tons better stock than this and she can be an early presence at the least this afternoon.

Silver Exchange

After a fine first run at Keeneland, she could not handle the class rise thereafter; her sire won a G2 and 1.04 million while the dam won 1 of 9 and 34K; sib to 31K bankroller Badge Master; drops to the proper level now and should upgrade.

Tiz Resplendent

Did not lose by much to Silver Exchange in their last encounter and now moves off the fence; this marks only her second attempt for a tag and she can upgrade with the extension in distance here; possible.

She'll Get Even

Stayed in contention in her only attempt at this oval and then had traffic trouble in her last try when attempting 9 furlongs; has never been in a sprint race so the turnback in distance here is difficult to plot; may be able to stay within range.

Grand Dame

She was a lukewarm favorite here 2 weeks ago when checking in a respectable third; 3 races back, at this distance, she ran a similar pattern and she appears to be a very legitimate trifecta take today.

Soraya

Since her decent debut here in May, she has not been a serious factor regardless of surface or distance; there is no reason to envision a sudden turnaround and she cannot be recommended until more firepower is shown.

Divine Creation

Rallied a bit after the fact in her first run at Indiana; her sire won 282K including G2 success; the dam, an off-track specialist, won 11 of 29 and 278K; sib to 38K earner Dynamic Balance; has to get into the race sooner now.

Sunbaked

Quit early in her first route attempt in September and the cutting back of a furlong may suit; workout regimen during the last month is definitely upbeat and she could prove to be the right value play in this wide-open affair.

Creation

Tries claimers for the first time after being rested since an ineffective run 8 months ago; the latest a.m. breeze was decent and this clear outside post can work to her advantage; might be able to work out an ideal stalking journey.

Race 6

Q Two

Colt goes outside to inside here; dam's lone win came across the pond; 5 of 6 siblings won, one took a route and also took debut at 2 and top kin carried speed long on grass, banked nearly $400K; he'll have the closing duties of the coupling; look for him in the final stages.

Thunder Run

Beyers going in the right direction and note runner was nearly 5 clear in last; top last race and career Beyer in the pocket, the winner of the debut took a Grade 3 next out with a 69 Beyer to make it 2 for 2; dam's only win came sprinting as older horse; one sibling did take debut at 2, and one route successfully; the one to beat.

Bro Rodrigeaux

He may not have enjoyed the slop in the double live debut; clear by over 6 in last, he seems comfortable with this surface accentuated by the blowout on the 11th; dam took debut at 2 for only score, lost only route; this is her first to race; expect much better effort.

Match Up

Colt walked out of the gate and passed a couple of tired ones; dam won thrice at 2, took a route, won a G3, banked $375K; lone half sis lost 4 times; needs a turn around after dull opener.

Ship to Shore

Hot claim box item due to catch a glib surface; dam was unraced; 3 of 5 siblings won; there is not juvenile success in the tree but top kin Gallant won routing twice, banked nearly $400K; note runners in the company line were clear; interesting.

Dynamic Impact

Eventful start to career in the off going but he proved he has some ability in last; stakes winning 4 for 15 dam won at 2, earned over $225K, was sprint only; this is her first to race; he should have his sea legs under him by now; don't ignore.

Bylia

She walked out of the gate on the synthetic to kick it off, then was bothered at the break; last race came back okay as the 6th finisher took a maiden $50K claimer next out and the 10th finisher took a MSW event; route only dam won at 2, earned nearly $230K; the stakes winning sibling to win took 2 sprints at 2, banked nearly $125K; may need softer to shine.

Sheikinator

Youngster could have sulked after the slow start but he put his head down and tried hard; all 3 of dam's wins came sprinting at 2; 2 of 3 sibs won, one cashed at 2, both were sprint only; clever barn due to get rolling.

Tall Boy

There are some stamina issues; he has lost ground in the lane every single time; backers can point to the fact that lone sibling Irsaal was route only and won at 2; could see him pushing the issue, not sure he'll be around at the end.

Quick Indian

Runner outran his odds to kick it off; G2 placed 4 for 26 dam won at 2, was route only, earned over $250K; the half sis that won Quick Breeze cashed at 2, took 2 routes, earned over $50K; rider has had good success for this barn.

Race 7

Q Two

Colt goes outside to inside here; dam's lone win came across the pond; 5 of 6 siblings won, one took a route and also took debut at 2 and top kin carried speed long on grass, banked nearly $400K; he'll have the closing duties of the coupling; look for him in the final stages.

Thunder Run

Beyers going in the right direction and note runner was nearly 5 clear in last; top last race and career Beyer in the pocket, the winner of the debut took a Grade 3 next out with a 69 Beyer to make it 2 for 2; dam's only win came sprinting as older horse; one sibling did take debut at 2, and one route successfully; the one to beat.

Bro Rodrigeaux

He may not have enjoyed the slop in the double live debut; clear by over 6 in last, he seems comfortable with this surface accentuated by the blowout on the 11th; dam took debut at 2 for only score, lost only route; this is her first to race; expect much better effort.

Match Up

Colt walked out of the gate and passed a couple of tired ones; dam won thrice at 2, took a route, won a G3, banked $375K; lone half sis lost 4 times; needs a turn around after dull opener.

Ship to Shore

Hot claim box item due to catch a glib surface; dam was unraced; 3 of 5 siblings won; there is not juvenile success in the tree but top kin Gallant won routing twice, banked nearly $400K; note runners in the company line were clear; interesting.

Dynamic Impact

Eventful start to career in the off going but he proved he has some ability in last; stakes winning 4 for 15 dam won at 2, earned over $225K, was sprint only; this is her first to race; he should have his sea legs under him by now; don't ignore.

Bylia

She walked out of the gate on the synthetic to kick it off, then was bothered at the break; last race came back okay as the 6th finisher took a maiden $50K claimer next out and the 10th finisher took a MSW event; route only dam won at 2, earned nearly $230K; the stakes winning sibling to win took 2 sprints at 2, banked nearly $125K; may need softer to shine.

Sheikinator

Youngster could have sulked after the slow start but he put his head down and tried hard; all 3 of dam's wins came sprinting at 2; 2 of 3 sibs won, one cashed at 2, both were sprint only; clever barn due to get rolling.

Tall Boy

There are some stamina issues; he has lost ground in the lane every single time; backers can point to the fact that lone sibling Irsaal was route only and won at 2; could see him pushing the issue, not sure he'll be around at the end.

Quick Indian

Runner outran his odds to kick it off; G2 placed 4 for 26 dam won at 2, was route only, earned over $250K; the half sis that won Quick Breeze cashed at 2, took 2 routes, earned over $50K; rider has had good success for this barn.

Race 8

Fools Road

Tries dirt after offering little when unveiled at Keeneland last month; colt did have some trouble in that one, but he took little money that day so he wasn't expected to do much; 2 of the dam's 3 foals to race were sprint winners so maybe he improves with the initial experience behind him but the rail is a tough starting slot.

Borseggiatore

Cuts back to sprint after getting used in pace in his first local spin; maybe the hood removal helps and he does own some numbers that fit in this relatively inexperienced field, but this 300K in training buy hasn't shown much stamina in any of his starts and though he could have a little more to offer late at the trip, the window for significant improvement may not be so open today.

I'mbetterthangood

Earned a field best Beyer in his troubled, late running debut at 8 panels a few weeks back; he'll get Lasix for the cut back to sprint and his work last week suggests that he can sit close enough to the front runners, given a clean start; with all 3 sibs sprint winners, he looks to be the one to beat today.

H Town Brown

Sire gets 18% first out winners and the dam won twice (1 sprint) prior to dropping 2 SWs from 3 foals to race including multiple G2 SW sprinter and 686K earner D'Funnybone; some of the morning moves are solid an a top pilot will take the call for an outfit that fires right out of the box.

Ches' Stein

Drew the Keeneland fence first time out and didn't get off to a great beginning at a big price in that heat; maybe the effort helped him some, but there's not much pedigree to suggest the big move forward needed will be on tap; just watching.

Divine View

This guy's sire has only sent 43 runners to the track, but 9 of them won first out for a strike rate of nearly 21%; dam was winless from 3 starts prior to dropping winners from each of her 3 foals to race including SW and 115K earner Window Boy; barn knows how to get them ready and some of the listed drills are rather quick.

Chance of Reign

Boasts a couple of bullet breezes for his unveiling for an outfit that hasn't had any recent luck with this type; sire is 0 for 12 with his newcomers and the dam was winless from 11 starts prior to dropping one foal to race who was off the board in both starts.

Money Fan

Gets Lasix for the move to dirt after taking money and showing a little bit of early foot first out at Keeneland; colt breezed ok for this last week and the barn does a decent job with its second out runners; one of his 2 sibs to race is a SP sprint winner.

Cry Summation

Had some pre-race issues and really didn't do much running thereafter at a big price in his local debut a few weeks back; he'll get Lasix for this and he did go for better than 27 times his sire's stud fee in training earlier this year so someone saw something they liked; 5 of his 6 sibs to race are multiple sprint winners, so if he's to get better quickly it should be at this trip.

High Ransom

Turns back to sprint on the surface switch after fading from an outside slot on the Keeneland lawn; pricey yearling buy didn't have much to offer in his lone main track try but it did come in his debut and he has a right to be better with some long subsequent races in him; worth a look in here.

Gambler's Ghost

Sharp first out barn's second runner in here also makes his debut with some solid morning moves in tow and it appears as if he may have worked in company with his uncoupled mate on several occasions; sire gets 10% winners from his debut runners and the SP dam took 2 sprints prior to dropping winners from each of her 5 foals to race.

Hat of Jacks

Outside drawn colt makes his local debut off a near miss placing first time in blinkers at Indiana Downs; colt should be able to find a tracking spot in here but he will be facing a better group here than he did in either of those first 2 starts so he'll need to improve.

Race 9

Emotional Kitten

She's multiple G1 stakes placed racing over turf and she has to be considered a top contender in this spot based on what she's been doing lately; her lack of early speed is a concern, especially in a field this size, but this Ramsey-owned miss can't be ignored.

Quality Kitten

One of two signed on in here for Ramsey and they might have this filly signed on to guarantee a legitimate early pace for Emotional Kitten; she has run well in her first two starts, but she's being asked to take a difficult step up in class for her third career start.

Zero Game (IRE)

She has a strong pedigree for turf and she really slipped past bettors in her first start in America while geting Lasix for the first time; this is a barn that has been doing well with turf starters and they are showing a lot of confidence in her by shipping her here for a graded stakes engagement.

I'm Already Sexy

She's two races removed from a sharp G3 score at Arlington Park and she looks like the stronger of the two Catalano-trained horses in here; she's displayed the ability to adapt to an early pace scenario and Geroux has won with 16 of 65 (25%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Effie Trinket

Multiple stakes winning New York-bred has displayed consistently strong form since being placed back over turf five starts ago, but she is making her first start outside of NY, and she doesn't find herself facing a soft bunch; wouldn't consider her a shocker if she proved to be capable, but leaning toward others.

Keening

Her one start over turf can be viewed in a positive light and she ran well against a solid field of N1X allowance rivals at Keeneland in her latest outing, but she's going to have to be ready for her best effort to date to threaten the top contenders in here; respect what this barn has been doing with their turf starters, but prefer to look in another direction.

Allegheny Angel

She's another in here being tested for class today and it's tough to give her a favorable push in her graded stakes debut when considering what she's shown to this point in time; runner up from latest won next out here on 10/31 going 1 1/2m vs. N1X alw. rivals with a 72 Beyer.

Nellie Cashman

Her form took a noticeable turn for the better when placed over turf five starts back and she's steadily improved her game since that time; note that she beat today's rival Praia when getting the job done in a G3 three starts ago; must consider.

Remember Then

Her one turf start was a solid run and feel that there is still upside to consider in this direction; this filly is out of a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won 8 of 23 starts for 865k, including 7 of 18 turf starts for 811k; this miss is a 1/2 to stakes placed War Hoot (4-22, 219k over turf) and she's a full to stakes winner Senada (2-23, 215k over turf).

Frivolous

She's a neck shy of being a G3 winner and she's run well in her four turf attempts, even if she has been beaten by a few of today's rivals in recent starts; at the very least, she's worth considering underneath in the exotics.

Praia

It was nice to see this multiple graded stakes placed miss bounce back with a sharp winning performance in her latest outing after an effort that was well below par for her; she's the stronger looking of the two McPeek-trained horses in here, and her 'A' game makes her a threat for the top spot.

Dance Again

She enters this race fresh off of a stakes score at Woodbine, but she finds herself faced with a much tougher task this time around, and she will have to be ready to take her game to another level to beat this field.

Tapicat

725k purchase hasn't run a bad race to date and she's eligible to be ready to give a strong account of herself while making her second start back from a layoff; she's a legitimate contender, but this filly is vulnerable to a fast and contested early pace.

E B Ryder

Respect the presence of Lanerie, but this filly earned her career best Beyer Speed Figure racing over a sloppy surface at Calder, and outside of that performance, her form hasn't been strong enough to give her a competitive look in this spot.