Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 15, 2013

Race 1

Angelic Score

Her last race is not characteristic of her form; she was facing more experienced rivals, on the move from the N2L to N3L ranks, and she also caught a wet track and her one other off-the-board finish also came on a track rated good; as for the winner of the race she exits, she came back to take a conditioned allowance at Mnr, with a Beyer of 70.

On the Same Page

She was a close fourth last out in a race that has become a key one; the runner-up came back in her next start to take a $5K starter allowance at CD, with a Beyer Figure of 78, and the third-place finisher, a $20K claimer, also at CD, with a Beyer of 72; has tactical speed and reason to move forward in her second start since August; leading contender.

Gibes

She's been knocking on the door at this level, and like that she's been favored in both of her recent starts for this price; her runner-up finish last time was her first start in more than two months, and she ran a strong race as she contested the pace to the late stages; forms capable entry with On the Same Page.

Mello Kisses

She's been zipping through her conditions of late, clearing her N2L in September then coming back and defeating the N3L one start later, in October; has the kind of speed that could find her controlling the pace or tracking B for Baba; also owns field's best last-race Beyer Figure; has the confidence factor in her favor.

B for Baba

She's had a good year and her last two starts are uncharacteristic of that form; showed excellent speed from the rail last time, but gets off the fence in this spot and that might give Arroyo options; is also back on dirt and she ran well on such a surface back in June; fires an improved race.

Bourbon Best

She's making a couple of notable moves; for one, she's dropping in claiming price and note her maiden win came for a $15K tag; she also shortens up in distance and her last win came at this six-furlong trip; like others in here, suspect she can turn in an improved performance.

Edolie

She's returning to the straight claiming ranks for the first time in a while and the move could be meaningful for runner whose last win came for this $15K claiming price; might be closer to the pace here than she was last out, when steadied; she also has reason to move forward in her second start since August.

Race 4

Kenrado

He made a nice move around the second turn but just couldn't keep up to speed that got away with pretty moderate fractions in his latest; there should be an honest pace here and he could be heard from late; this will be his first time trying a one-turn mile but his best races have been at the distance; contender.

Palladian

Not a lot to show for his first three starts and he finished more than 12-lengths behind Kenrado in his first start here; all five sibs are winners with turf winner Key to Fame earning the most money at $48K; he'll need to improve to make an impact here; passing.

Dubaele

He has his Beyer Speed Figures heading in the right direction and it looks like he'll be one they are chasing if he breaks alertly; dam was unraced; lone sib is a full-brother and he is a winner but hasn't tried a middle distance yet; he should get some stamina from his sire; live barn but Pucek hasn't won with the last 11 that were stretching out for the first time; nonetheless, this guy has to be considered a serous threat to take them all the way.

Jet Cat

Debuts for Frederick who since 2009 is 0 for 11 with first-time starters; Tactical Cat a respectable 13% with first-time starting juveniles; stakes-placed dam won 6 races and earned $99K; two sibs are a combined 2/39 with total earnings of $23K; not likely.

Panther Key

He's by a sire that is roughly 9% with first-time starting 2-year-olds; stakes-winning dam won 4 races and earned $220K; 3 of 4 sibs are winners the best being $374K route winner Stevil; the past five years Von Hemel hasn't won with a 2-year-old debuting in a maiden claiming race - 9% in MSW races, though; not out of the question.

Shobiz Star

Homebred ran a big race when he finished second in his debut; the winner won a $40K claimer in his next start here by seven lengths with a 71 Beyer; this guy had a rough trip when he was sent off as the chalk in a $30K maiden race at Indiana; it was still a good effort, though, if he can handle the added distance he figures to me a major player; dam won 12 sprints but went unplaced in lone route attempt; one of his 3 sibs to race is a route winner; contender.

Camp Meeting

He spotted the field a few lengths at the start and then never really picked up his feet when he debuted against much tougher in a MSW race at Keeneland; strong second start stats for Richard and the last 2-year-old he dropped into a maiden claimer following a poor debut won by over 12 lengths; dam won going long and this is her first foal to race; he's had a couple of solid works leading up to this and might be worth a stab at what could be a decent price; the pick.

Rooster Cruiser

Double-digit losses in all four of his races and he never really got involved following a poor start in the same race Kerado exits; it is possible he didn't care for the sloppy conditions in his two starts here and he was overmatched in both of his starts at Saratoga; he's the first foal out of a mare that won 3 races on turf so this might not be his preferred surface; passing.

Determinate

With Distinction is roughly 11% with first time starters; dam was unraced; two sibs, one winner, Go Katie, who is 1/19 with earnings of $22K; works just average and the past five years Bradley has a 3% strike rate with first-time starting 2-year-olds; prefer others.

Race 5

Turtle River

Did not look like she wanted any parts of today's distance in latest fade; the normal 2nd-time out improvement did not occur; the trainer is winning with just 8% among 2-year-old starters since 2012; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Market Magic

Sire is 5-for-61 with 1st-turf starters; 7-67 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a stakes-winning dam (4-for-12, 212K) who went 3-0-0-1 on grass (19K) producing 4 winners from 5 other foals to race (top earner G3 Exfactor 3-for-10, 158K); 3 foals to race on turf are 0-for-19 combined.

V V Goodnight

The winner from last repeated in a LRL-optional claimer with a 66 Beyer speed figure; sire is 2-for-41 with 1st-turf starters; dam went 2-0-0-0 on grass (3K); 3 of 7 foals to race on turf are grass winners including 178K-turfer Gleam of Hope (3-for-14).

Gina's Kitten

18-point Beyer 2nd-time out improvement when rallying strongly at longer; can she get up in time cutting back in distance is the only concern; rider of latest lands on Piper Jade for this however the new rider wins 21% at CD for the trainer; the one they all must hold off in deep stretch.

Easy Chair

Disapponting-favored debut where she faded up top; sire is 27-for-360 with 1st-turf starters; SW-dam (2-for-7. 170K) did not race on grass; 1 of 2 foals to race on turf is a grass winner Group 3 Golden Century (2-for-4 turf 76K); must find missing stamina but races for a 36% second-start trainer.

Piper Jade

Hung on the money in latest making another surface switch for this; sire is 36-for-284 with 1st-turf starters; 1-0-0-0 dam did not race on grass; 1 of 3 foals to race on North Amercian turf is a lawn winner (1-for-5 Local Legend 21K).

Analog Girl

Sire is 19-for-153 with 1st-turf starters; 6-107 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of an unraced dam who produced 2 winners from 2 other foals to race including 1-for-4 turfer Lignite (62K); high-percentage 1ster trainer adds to the appeal.

Crissy Field

Posted her best Beyer on turf so a good sign she moves to the green for this; the trainer is winless since 2012 with 2YO runners and stamia is a big concern off latest loss at today's distance; view as a pace presence.

Falutin

Adds distance after her 1st start in 100 days saw her tire in deep stretch; clearly eligible to move forward for this but the added yardage is clearly a major concern; the debut show finisher Beyered 70 in her next-out CRC-MSW win.

Cello

Try to catch me; exits a field-best Beyer performance 1st time sent long on turf where she made the lead then held on very well; the added distance today is certainly a major hurdle to overcome but could be all alone up top here which benefits greatly.

Tapiteao

Main Track Only entry posted another new Beyer Top for last 1st time racing on dirt; the 2-back and debut runner-up finishers Beyered 79-68 in next-out KEE-MSW wins; the added distance here is a plus; would be a major player if in.

She's Not Here

MTO outran her debut odds when flashing speed on synthetic; clearly a pace force if in here but the added distance like with many others is a major issue; sire was a dirt-route G1 stakes winner on today's CD oval; dam finished 5th and 6th in 2-dirt route defeats.

Notte d'Oro

Sire is 24-for-271 with 1st-turf starters; 24-194 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a SW dam (2-for-27, 355K) who won 2-of-23 on grass (327K); her only other foal to race is Red Rifle (2-for-3, 68K) who's only grass race was finishing 4th in a Grade 3 turf event.

Charmaine's Legacy

Sire is 48-for-509 with 1st-turf starters; 38-388 with 2-year-old debut runners; is out of a 2-0-0-0 dam (2K) who did not compete on grass; 3 of 5 foals to race are winners; 3 of 4 foals to race on turf are lawn winners (386K turfer G2 Well Monied 4-for-10).

And You Can

Expected a lot more run from her dirt-sprint debut where she broke terribly then passed only a few runners late; sire is 1-for-19 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an unraced dam; 1 foal raced on turf (3-0-0-0 Indian Eddie 1K).

Wicked Temper

Sire is 26-for-297 with 1st-turf starters; Group 2 dam took 1-of-7 on turf (66K); no foals racing in North America started on grass; the debut runner-up finisher Beyered 70 in her next-out CD-MSW win; worked well on CD-fast dirt for this but off latest looks like today's distance will be a major challenge.

Race 6

Be a Bidder

Tough to be too enthused; just 1 for his last 36, and that win came back in 2012; things have not gone well since and he was just no factor at any point in the slop in a race like this here Oct. 30, at 118-1 no less.

Capital Goods

Nice win for twice this tag here Sept. 29 after 6 months off but there's cause for pause since; after all, off that win he had his value cut in HALF here Oct. 30 and then was a so-so 5th; was that a function of the slop (though he'd run well before on wet going) or was that the classic ol' bounce?; also, he was claimed out of that nice Sept. 29 win so he'd changed hands; at least there's no layoff but which guy do we get today?

Pasture Rise

Game win over $6K N2L foes at IND Oct. 11; now moves up a bit in value and these aren't N2L foes any longer either, so it's a tougher spot to be sure, and he also has to ship for the privilege; lone prior local try wasn't too hot but at least he comes here sharp and maybe that IND win is a sign he's peaking...maybe.

Big Ring

4th in the slop in a spot similar to this here Oct. 30, but it was a well-beaten 4th (12 1/2 lengths); he was over 6 lengths behind today's foe Kennys Lake, who ran 2nd in that race; 1 of his 2 wins came on a wet track (albeit one rated 'good') and he'd run well before in the slop so it's tough to blame that for the loss; at least there's a very nice work since and no drop in value by Baker.

Kenny's Lake

2nd, beating a few of these, in a spot like this in the slop here Oct. 30; blew the start, sat midpack early, rushed up to threaten turning for home and while no match for the big winner stayed on well to be a clear 2nd; that's a couple decent outings after a dull run at MNR last month so could be he's rounding back to form and if that's the case then he's a player here to be sure.

Tahquamenon

Difficult to build a case; lone win over winners came on synthetic footing and routing - today we're on dirt and sprinting; just 1 for 15 on dirt, and that win came on a wet track; does drop and maybe that can help, but he dropped to the $7,500 N3L level at PID a couple months ago and that didn't get the desired form reversal; it's also his first time over this track.

Son Tsar

Form picked up nicely this spring/summer, topped off by a game win for this price (vs. N2L foes) here Sept. 27; that's nice and all but it's a tad disconcerting that not only has he not been seen since but he didn't post his next work until Nov. 3; let's face it, you don't take a horse who seems to be peaking and put him away for a while without good reason; at least he's back for the same price, you know he likes it here and when he did resurface to work here Nov. 3 it was at least a nice work.

Ur Up Zip

Some good work at IND this year, though all that also came vs. Indiana-breds; came here Nov. 7, chased the pace but hit the brakes hard, fading to 11th, beaten a long ways (24 3/4 lengths) at 99-1; those weren't monsters but they were $7,500 N3L foes but these guys are probably as tough and they're NOT Indiana-breds only either.

Soloman's Gold

Game win on the ELP turf July 12 hinted he might be turning things around; alas, things have gone south since and that includes another run on the ELP turf, a try on this main track and a try in the slop here when fading badly to be last of 12, far behind today's foe Kenny's Lake; does have speed to be sure, but save for that ELP turf win July 12 he's been hitting the brakes awfully hard since the spring.

Race 7

Noble Abode

Hood goes on for the turn back to sprint while dropping a bit in price in his local debut; dam was a SW sprinter and she dropped 3 multiple sprint winners including SW and 234K earner Coax Liberty so maybe this gelding moves forward at this trip; New York bred is worth considering.

Spintastic

Speedy 4 year old has had his share of chances but he can go better with his return from the break behind him; showed solid lick from an outside draw last time and maybe that combined with the time off did him in; Saratoga try 2 back at today's trip earned him a number that takes this rather handily; not a lot to go with him early so if he breaks alertly he could prove tough to run down.

Little Jimmy

Makes his first start off the claim by an outfit that hits at a big clip with this type and a top pilot will get aboard; he didn't have much to offer late on the class drop in that Keeneland try, but the new barn has a knack for moving this type forward and he's already run fast enough over the local footing to prove a big threat in this heat; contender.

Keep It Together

Faded after chasing the pace from a wide spot in his local sprint debut earlier in the month; gelding drops in for a tag in this spot for a barn that's had a pretty nice season from relatively limited starters; maybe with the experience behind him he finds these easier, but it's not as if he took much tote support first out and was expected to show some run; maybe for a share.

Nastrovya

Ran poorly in his lone start here earlier in the year and wasn't a threat in either of his 2 recent dirt cracks with shades on at Indiana Downs; gelding may find himself a little closer early on the slight stretchout but don't know that he'll be a factor in the lane; prefer others.

George and John

Trailed the entire way in his Gulfstream debut last winter and hasn't been out since; barn does a decent job with its fresh runners, but this colt boasts a handful of slow breezes for his return to the races; dam dropped several winners including multiple SW and 374K earner Chief of Affairs.

Skilltopaythebills

He'll go for the 16th time today while dropping in for a tag on the turn back and surface switch; gelding has been ok sprinting in the past, but he's yet to run fast enough on the main track to prove a serious threat on the win end; barn is winless on the year and the new pilot has had a rough stand; minor award figures his ceiling.

Face of Glory

Sire is 0 for 5 with his first out runners and he's the first foal to race out of a dam who won 8 races (7 sprints); works are all breezes and the barn has only started a couple this year so presence of tote support could raise some interest.

Bama Bound

Hood goes on for the drop to his lowest level after wide trips did him in while trying claimers in each of his last 2 starts; gelding wasn't far off the winner in those starts and the softer company should agree with him in here; must consider.

Above the Bar

Lightly raced gelding is another getting new equipment for the drop in for his lowest price yet; he'll draw outside again and he did back out of it willingly in his first with winners at Keeneland; debut spin over the track wasn't much, either.

Tap the Admiral

Outside drawn gray has yet to hit the board in 4 career spins, each at a different venue, and now he'll take the biggest drop in the game; class relief often wakes them up, but off what he's shown thus far this guy has quite a bit of improving to do to factor here.

Race 8

Missing Sefa

Veteran racemare still has consistent rallying capability and should be in the mix late here if gaining a clear path; has scored from the tricky rail slot in the past and has legitimate money chances rain or shine.

Shee's Swift

A slow break cost her any realistic chance in her comeback race when facing many of these same opponents; overall Beyers come up way short; cannot be endorsed as a serious candidate today.

Embellished Gold

Ignore the last run over a sloppy surface which is not her preferred surface; she has yet to earn an exacta finish at this oval, however, and therefore does not warrant serious backing at this time.

Another Trick

Returns to the nickel level where she scored 2 back but take a look at the effort prior where she made a right turn out of the gate yet still lost by a relatively small margin; can hit the board at a square price here.

Abelha Maestra

This is a fascinating play if a fast track is the order of the day; she stopped on a dime in the last run yet set a superior early pace in that defeat; she reverts to Castanon who has established a fine record with a limited number of mounts for this trainer.

Lovely Leeann

Cut the corner in the last run before settling for minor spoils; she is yet another runner in this field with no penchant for an off track; was game in the previous pair of efforts over dry ground and perhaps she can be a late presence this afternoon.

Rewardbyblitzing

Did not show any of her usual early speed in the last assignment; the race 2 back at Keeneland featured a very quick early tempo and she was in the thick of things until the half-way point; can show more staying power here.

Slew Water Slew

Benefited by a pace meltdown in the last score and the extra 2 pounds today may not matter if she receives a similar set-up; faces several dropdowns today with back class so a repeat score will not be easy to achieve.

Desi Girl

Disappointed as the chalk last month at Indiana but has never done much serious running when negotiating this course in the past; pace-pressing type will have to improve significantly today in order to be a true contender; a wet track would help matters.

Sugar Shenanigan's

Makes her belated 2013 debut and the returning workouts are only moderate in nature; has won following a layoff in the past but not against this caliber; despite getting weight from the entire field, a wait and see betting approach is advised.

Prettygood and You

She once again draws an unfortunate post position; if there are any key scratches to the left, however, she appears to be a primary pace play today if early speed has dominated the card up to now; do not overlook if that is the case.

Miss Ziggy

Confirmed rallier is closing in on the century mark (100 lifetime starts) and is much better than the last performance line implies; she was sharp in victory 2 back and has finished alongside some of these same foes in recent starts; consider.

Strawberry Quake

With only one lifetime score, she appears out of her element today; best Beyers by far have been over the grass course and she cannot be backed until she returns to that surface or the soft n2l class; pass until then.

Goodnessgraciousme

All-out to win at Mountaineer a month ago but she has a local victory to her credit; her last 2 attempts over this course were against tons better stock than this; has some serious back class and would be an interesting possibility if escaping the AEs.

Added Delight

Finished strong when outfinishing several of these in her most recent test; versatile mare would need much luck to make it to the starting gate today and will have to overcome an extreme outpost if that occurs; minor award at best.

Race 9

Pure Aristotle

Lightly raced 4-year-old has run well in his two turf starts, but those starts were against maiden claimers, and he might find this to be a tough spot to take on N1X alw. rivals, especially with a tricky rail post in play.

Good Tickled

Three of his four turf starts look good when compared to what these have shown to be capable of but he does need to be careful to avoid falling too far out of it through the opening stages and leaving himself with too much ground to cover through the stretch; regardless, he's a legitimate contender in this spot.

Strong Response

He's stakes placed sprinting over turf and he's out of a dam who won 3 of 10 turf starts for 96k; third place finisher from latest won next out at PID on 6/27 going 6 1/2f vs. N2L alw. rivals with a 71 Beyer.

Stormy Rocit

Son of strong turf influence Stormy Atalntic has some early speed to throw at these, but he's going to need to bounce back from a performance that was below par for him and produce a career best effort to get the better of this bunch.

Once and for All

There's a long layoff in play and he's going to need to show up with his best effort to date to see his number posted on top after this one; on the positive side, he has a fine turf pedigree and his dam won 5 of 24 turf starts for 116k.

Recalling Memories

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; a number of his dirt starts have been solid performances and not going to be at all surprised if he gives a good account of himself against these in his turf debut.

Sayler's Creek

His one start sprinting over turf was a fine runner-up finish at Saratoga and this will be his first turf start since being claimed by Ramsey and Maker; Leparoux has won with 4 of 8 mounts for this barn at the current stand.

Simple Interest

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 4 of 10 starts for 168k, and she didn't make a turf start; this colt is a 1/2 to Credit Only (5-29, 134k, including 1 of 5 turf starts for 29k); he hails from a strong turf barn and note that Bridgmohan was aboard for his one win.

Inherently

He's an interesting player in this spot and he might be looking forward to getting back over turf and turning back in distance; note that he ran well sprinting over this turf course back in June, a race that saw him finish close behind one of today's key rivals in Good Tickled.

Jimmer

He's an interesting late running option to consider in here and he figures to be in the clear throughout with an outside post in play; two of his three starts over turf have been quality ones, and he has the pedigree of a turf sprinter; must consider.

Off the Page

He's shown the ability to dial up a performance that is strong enough to make him a threat for the top spot in here; he's a 1/2 to G2 winner Holiday for Kitten (5-17, 327k, including 3 of 11 turf starts for 141k); one of two signed on in here for Ramsey.

Lofty Heart

It would have been nice to have seen him show more in his latest outing after a long layoff, but he ran a nice race in his career debut sprinting over turf, and he's a 1/2 to stakes winner Mimi's Bling (3-11, 121k, including 3 of 6 turf starts for 112k).

Race 10

Summer Opera

Maybe she just wanted no part of the synthetic in last and she was bothered at the start; decent try the last time in town considering he hooked a clear winner; no help for the 2 siblings that are non winners; don't ignore.

Electric Seat

Was an ice cube on the tote and the fans were right; 3 for 33 dam was route only but earned less than a grand a start; both siblings won multiple times, one took a route, one banked nearly $80K; she has some things to prove.

Dabblin N Royalty

Worse race by far was local; pushed along in last, she may be better off settling and making the one run like she did in the October debut; barn has spotted them just fine; don't discount.

Miss Nancy Frances

Sun King 5 for 120 with debuters; sire won at 2, took a pair of Grade 2s, banked over $2.2 million; dam out of the money 4 times; 2 of 3 siblings won including stakes winner, 8-time route winner and over $300K earner Megoman; no published moves beyond 4 furlongs.

Flashy Bertie

Lack of speed a concern as the drop is logical; backers can point to the fact there is route success in the pedigree and also near $300K earner Homerun Berti; miss has not been an active work horse; if she can run at all, the drop figures to help.

Ruud Grrl

Those that took 59-1 screamed for awhile, but then reality set in; the sibling that did win twice did so sprinting; she has only beaten one horse so far; that's not a resume for success.

K to the Croft

Ran okay the first time for a tag but has only been able to better that figure once and she didn't scare the winner that day; sometimes those sloppy efforts can take time to recover from correctly; hard to adore.

Mrs. Darcy

Don't be too harsh about last as she may have just hated the off going; at least there is a double route winner in the tree; not thrilled with the loss vs. softer in August; would be careful before taking too short a price here.

Makin Mo Love

Has the Estes runner to deal with here once again as runner drops a notch after showing career speed; connections would love to see her start acting like top kin, Group 1 winner and near $400K player Kaieteur; top last race Beyer in the pocket; a good thing in an ordinary race?

Bluegrass Ziggy

Connections patient enough to bring her back after missing 2012; nice try on grass two back when 8 clear but the April route leaves much to be desired; maybe she will age well as top kin Indy Wind took a stakes at 6, banked almost $400K; right there with the A game.

Wedding Lass

Backers have to hope the drop shakes her up; both of dam's wins were sprints; last race came back live; place horse took a maiden $16K BEL claimer next out, show horse took a maiden $30K at KEE in next, 5th finisher took a maiden $15K RP seller and 2 others ran second; nice; lone half sis to race lost 8 times; you can make a case she'll be more involved early on the stretch out; interesting.

Damascene

Off a career Beyer in August and then they stopped on her; wonder why?; soph did post that career Beyer in a stretch out effort; the half bro that did win multiple times was purely a sprinter; beaten over 11 the other time at this distance.

Little Blue

Once they lose 18 times, the upside is nearly impossible to locate; no speed, never in the money and boxcars every time has been the deal with this runner; passing.