Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 14, 2013

Race 1

Kitty's Turn

He showed excellent speed on the cutback in distance last out, when he attended a 44.80 half-mile pace in a six-furlong race at Ind; returns here to the CD main track over which he has compiled a strong record; has the speed to hold his position from the rail and is a class act as a runner who twice has placed in stakes; leading contender.

Sunday Mass

He's a winner of three of his last four starts, with his three recent victories coming at Ind; now takes his show to CD, and is spotted well with the move from the $25K optional claiming ranks to $10K starter allowance foes; also brings good speed to the table, and suspect he could show the way or track Kitty's Turn; a concern is pace rival I Knot, who is situated to his outside.

Be Brave

He's a consistent sort and in his most recent start was third to a quality kind of winner in Billy Two Hats; makes a nice class move, from the $40K claiming level to the $10K starter allowance ranks; he also has a useful off-the-pace style, and might get an ideal setup behind a few of these; choice.

I Knot

He's quick and he's on top of his game right now, having won his last three races; has a chance to show the way depending on how things go at the break, or might also track a pair of pace rivals to his inside, Sunday Mass and Kitty's Turn; will be making his first start off the claim.

Froggyville

The race he exits has produced a return winner, with third-place finisher Double Rah Rah coming back in his next start to take a $32K claimer at CD with a Beyer Figure of 87; like the company line, and this one is well-spotted on the move to the $10K starter allowance ranks after facing $40K optional claimers last out at Ind; stretch threat.

New Believer

An 8-year-old who has won 10 races, he is seeking his first win on dirt; has been racing over the Polytrack at Kee in recent times, and in his last start ran well on the cutback from a mile and an eighth to six furlongs; might be even sharper here in his second straight sprint start.

Pure Sovereignty

Edged on Polytrack in his most recent start, he moves back to dirt and note his last win came on the main track at CD, back in September; sharpened his skills for the cutback from seven eighths to six panels with a bullet half-mile move, and is one of several who seem in line for at least a piece.

Tiz Liberty

He will be giving up recency to these as he has not seen action since December; as one whose best work of late has come over a route of ground, the six furlongs seems less than optimum for him, simply a logical starting point following the layoff; tough to expect one to be on top of his game following the extended break, but do like that he's a full brother to Grade 1 winner Tough Tiz's Sis ($903K) and stakes winner Golly Greeley ($113K); one to preview in the paddock. By Mary Rampellini

Race 2

Foolish Comment

Just a single sprint in his 31-race career but he did finish second going six furlongs in a $7.5 n/w/2 at Delaware last year; hard to support him off what he showed in his last start here, though, and he also ran poorly the other time he ran here; this will also be his first start in two months and there are no published works showing so we're going to pass.

Grace's Devil

He was in over his head at Keeneland so we're willing to toss the race plus he was pretty much done when he got bumped around at the start; he had two solid races in one-turn miles here in May and June and he has decent speed so he might be able to get into the race right from the start; not out of the question.

It's All About Joy

It has been over a year since he ran last and he'll probably need a race before he's ready for his best; the last three his trainer brought back from lengthy layoffs all finished pretty far back; it also looks like he wants more distance so we're going to look in other directions.

Our Noble Heart

He won at this level and distance three back but couldn't keep up to tougher in his next two starts; his race at Thistledown two back was a key race and the winner won his fourth straight in a first-level allowance race in his next start there; he fits better here and would have to be considered a serious contender with Lanerie keeping the faith.

Rocky Bear

He made a strong but too early move around the turn before tired late in his latest and that makes it seven-straight races over this surface where he hasn't made it into the tri; not sure the extra sixteenth is going to help but at least he's coming off a couple of decent efforts including one in a $10K claimer at Keeneland so it wouldn't be a complete shock if he picked up a slice; consider for the bottom half of the exotics.

Muhaaseb

6-year-old comes off two solid efforts at Indiana Downs and the horse that beat him two back won a $10K claimer there with a 73 Beyer Speed Figure in his next start; he's won going around two turns so the added distance shouldn't be a problem and he does have the best form going into the race; he's also won here in the past; the pick.

Archie Trucker

He hasn't had much luck running over wet tracks in his career so we'll give him a pass on his last two at Mountaineer and Thistledown; he had pretty solid form at Ellis prior to his last two and he's performed well over this surface in the past; he also has decent tactical speed and should get a nice trip from a stalking position; don't sell short.

Hometown Legend

Just 3 wins in 36 starts isn't encouraging but he is coming off a big effort in a similar race and there isn't a lot of obvious speed in the field so he'll likely be into the race right from the start; he also owns the best Beyer Speed Figure at the distance and it was earned here; his lack of wins is a concern but the shape of the race should work in his favor and at the very least he should be part of any exotics ticket. By Randy Goulding

Race 3

Homeboykris

Former G1 SW (won the 2009 Champagne) obviously isn't that horse any longer, but he showed here Sept. 20 when a sharp 2nd for $16K that there's still some gas in the tank; Maker apparently believes it, too, as he claiemd this guy that day; brought him back at this level at KEE Oct. 24 and the horse ran on well for 4th after a poor start; great to see NO drop in price and this guy's best work the past year or so (including his last win) came over this track.

Banjammer

Ran into a sharp horse in his last 2 (Hazards of Love) when 3rd here Sept. 20 and at IND Oct. 2; no shame in that, however; in fact, that IND 3rd looks even better when you note the winner, Hazards of Love, and the 2nd horse both came right back to win; toss that turf dud at IND July 31 and you're left with 5 straight fine outings, and remember last winter/spring this guy was really on his game winning 3 straight at FG, 2 of which earned big, big Beyers (98 in each).

Another Gear

Kept to his task nicely to be 3rd at IND last time out; had a very wide trip that day so you can be forgiving for him not sustaining his run; must deal with winner Awesome Bet again here, but there wasn't that much between them (1 1/4 lengths); still, this guy hasn't exactly done his best work here (1 2nd in 5 starts) and he can sometimes leave himself with too much to do; still, Amoss is going well early this meet (3 for first 7, 43%) and he claimed this guy for $16K 2 back and keeps him above that price today.

Awesome Bet

Wins haven't been that frequent of late, but in his defense he's spent all his time the past couple seasons facing tougher; nice optional claiming win at IND last time out, though it's interesting that off such a win he is now offered for just $25K; after all, they risked him for $50K the race prior; winless here in 7 starts but it's not as if he hasn't run some nice races here.

Sun Bear

Knocking on the door with 3 straight 2nds this summer including one at this level here Sept. 8 (other 2 came on turf at IND); last time?; well, he caught slop at IND and he'd finished off the board in his 6 prior wet-track races so it should be no surprise he didn't fare so well again there Oct. 19; obviously hoping for dry land here and as noted that Sept. 8 run stamps him a proven commodity on this track and at this level.

Adulare

Not only nice to see Asmussen plunked down $16K to claim him (21% off a claim) but it's most encouraging he bumps her up a couple levels in price; that being said, this guy is 0 for 12 this year with just 1 2nd so he'll need a leap forward to be a factor, but that's by no means out of reach, he has won here before (2 times) and has a touch of back-class.

Small Town Talk

Nice 3rd for $50K here Sept. 21; that run looks better, too, when you note the horse who beat him for 2nd came right back to win; last time?; well, that was first time on synthetic, at KEE, again for $50K, and obviously that ain't his footing; back to dirt and today's drop has to help; hey, just a few months ago he got a shot at a G3 and G2 at MTH.

Channeling

A couple decent tries here in the spring, but the pattern since is a bit worrisome - layoff/2 dull races/another layoff; at least 3 of his 4 wins have come here but his last start came on this track at this trip and he was no real factor at any point that day; at least Hartlage pushing the right buttons early this meet (2 for first 3, 67%) and Johnson stays withi this guy but that aforementioned recent pattern gives cause for pause. By Michael Hammersly

Race 5

Fast Bobbi J

Last win was from the same rail draw as today; hopes to save every inch of ground then rally strongly; negative 5-pound weight swing off the head loss to Bwana Babe; the winner from last posted a 75 Beyer speed figure taking an MNR-optional-claiming win next out; she defeated the 5th-place finisher a 72 Beyer-KEE-16K-claiming winner next out; 2-back beat the runner-up finisher who posted a 63 speed figure in her next-out MNR-optional-claiming win.

Bwana Babe

Likes to be on the lead noting the last time she made the front was a field-best Beyer nearly 10-length romp over a wet track where her 6-for-11 record on off gong tells us she is doing a rain dance for this; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 77 in a next-out MNR alw. win; chased a 75 Beyer repeat winner 2-back while beating the 5th-place finisher a 72 speed figure victor in a KEE-16K claimer next out; she is a major-pace presence with Guava Girl and Larissa's Love.

Seamstress

Can win on the lead or from off the frontend but likes to be in the pace mix early; the winner from last Beyered 67 in her next-out KEE-starter alw. win; 50-day freshening off a career-best Beyer on turf; overall her speed figures are lacking when compared to the others.

Guava Girl

Frontrunner lost all chance in last when breaking 6th; the route distance is an issue; the winner from last Beyered 84 in a next-out CD-25K-claiming win; the 2-back runner-up scored next out in a HAW-optional claimer with an 80 speed figure; know her early but unsure about late.

Extract

0-for-6 since the claim; owns her best Beyer occurred on a wet-main track; 2-back was simply no match for several of these chasing 2 next-out winners (75-72 Beyer winners in MNR-optional-claiming and KEE-16K-claiming scores); others appeal more.

Larissa's Love

Seems the one to catch with Guava Girl and Bwana Babe likely chasing her from the gate; her dirt record is poor and heads back to the main track after a dull grass try; the runner-up and 5th-place finishers from last Beyered 79-60 in next-out KEE-DED alw. wins; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Bandi's Gal

Figures for an ideal trip sitting just off Guava Girl, Larissa'a Love and Bwana Bade while getting 1st run on the closers; major concern is her 3 prior-dull efforts on dirt; the runner-up and show finishers from last Beyered 82-71 in next-out KEE-starter alw. and CD-30K-claiming wins.

Demure Halo

No stamina displayed 1st off the claim when switched back to turf; owns her best Beyer and 4-for-8 record on fast-main tracks; middle moved 2-back when landing behind a couple of these which was the 1st-CD dirt defeat of career; wish we were more impressed by latest but definitely has good enough credentials to turn the tables from the favored loss 2 back.

Courtly Flyer

Even finish 1st off the claim but it was her lowest Beyer since April; the 2-back CD winner repeated in a KEE-10K claimer with a 77 Beyer; the 3-back runner-up Beyered 72 in her next-out MNR starter alw. win; owns her best speed figure on turf; figures to stalk the speed then hopes to show up with a better effort than latest IND defeat. By Art Gropper

Race 6

Wall Street Kitten

Draws the fence for his debut for a sharp first out barn with a few solid recent synthetic breezes on his tab; his sire gets 16% winners both right out of the box and with those trying the green for the initial time; he's the first foal to race out of a dam who won first time on the lawn and banked 85K.

Thats It Imleaving

Wasn't beaten much in the first out turf sprint and returned to run ok going long when defeated as the chalk in the Indiana Downs sloppy route spin last month; colt is the first foal to race out of a G3 SP, route SW dam so expect he'll move forward with the experience going long; contender.

Ghost to Ghost

Broke at the back of the pack in each of her 2 starts and didn't do much running thereafter either time; now he'll stretching out with a couple of solid recent drills in tow for his return to the green; he is kin to a turf sprint winner and his pedigree suggests he'll handle added ground; price will be right but he'll need to improve to threaten.

Signature Seven

Made 2 moves in his Keeneland route debut and wasn't far off the winner at the wire; he's since returned to to breeze well for an outfit that does ok second out, but their numbers with initial turf starters aren't very good; sire is 0 for 6 with his first surface runners and the dam was 0 for 1 on the green; lone sib to try the footing was 0 for 2 over it.

Mister Blues

He was coming late through a quick final quarter mile in his turf debut but did still finish behind some of the guys he'll catch again in here; 2 of the dam's 3 wins came going long and though most of her foals have been better sprinting she did drop a route winner in G2 SP, 454K earner Moyer's Pond; can go better second time going long.

Royale Sky

Worked sharply on the local main track last weekend after the troubled sprint debut; he'll get Lasix for his initial turf route and his sire gets 12% first surface winners from his offspring annd the route SW dam never tried the green prior to dropping one foal who was winless from 1 spin on the stuff.

Jaz N Tap

Showed a little bit of lick when stretched out off the break in his second career start and now he'll try the green in his initial route spin; colt is the first foal to race out of an unraced dam and his sire gets 14% first time surface winners from his offspring; barn hasn't had any recent luck moving them to the infield.

Sea View Chico

Tries the green after a couple of weak main track spins, most recently going long in the Indiana Downs slop; colt is by a sire who is 1 for 19 with his first time turfers and the dam was 0 for 1 on the green prior to dropping 4 winners including SW sprinter and 226K earner Spring Rush who finished off the board in each of her 3 turf tries and 131K earner Gentlemansapproval who won 10 total races including the first time he stepped on the lawn.

Tropic of Artie

Just missed as the chalk at Keeneland after breaking from the outside starting slot; he's got the positional foot to again secure a tracking spot from here and he does draw inside the last out pacesetter here; looks as if they'll again have him to beat from close range.

Boss Man Mike

Moves a little further outside after getting worn down and passed by the foe starting to his immediate inside in here; colt has early foot and he blew out quickly last week for this so expect they'll again send him to the front; he'll have another half panel to deal with today, but he is lightly raced and has a right to move forward with experience behind him; they'll probably have to come and get him to win.

Q Two

First part of the coupling will meet the starter if this heat gets moved to the main track; his sprint debut over this footing wasn't much and though he did show improved early interest from the outside slot last time, don't know that he's going to love today's added trip; dam did drop a route winner, but her best foal was probably 379K earner Bright Abundance, this gal's full sister, who was a G3 SW turfer.

Spoiler Alert

AE debuts for an outfit that boasts nice numbers with its runners right out of the box; sire gets 10% overall debut winners and 13% first time surface winners from his offspring and the limited route winning dam dropped 4 winners including local G1 SW and 1.3 million earner Pool Play who was winless from 10 career turf starts.

Bro Rodrigeaux

AE showed good speed on synthetic footing at Keeneland second time out after catching slop in the Saratoga key heat debut; barn's numbers with turfers aren't much; sire gets about 10% winners from his initial surface runners and the dam did finish third in both of her grass tries prior to dropping this guy.

Kilted Cowboy

Barn's other half had trouble before offering some interest late in the lane first out at Keeneland; AE is out of a dam who was 0 for 1 on the green and his sibs are a combined 0 for 6 over the stuff so even with second out improvement he may not be ready to take the needed step forward over this stuff to factor.

Clovelly

AE is mired on the list and not likely to go but he did show some late run from a wide spot while sprinting first out at Keeneland; his lone sib was a SP turf sprinter and 71K earner, but her 2 wins each came on the main track; dam wasa minor SW turfer, however, and this guy's sire does get a solid 10% winners from his first time turfers. By Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Highlight

Although he should improve off last month's needed tightener, an effort which featured a wide journey, the gelding has never shown any preference whatsoever for this course; best efforts have been over the Keeneland surface and he cannot be endorsed for the top spot today.

My Name Is Hebe

Showed some good fighting speed at Indiana last out and switches to apprentice handling for this turnback; has run well via the third start off the bench angle in the past and can do so again here with the right pace set-up.

Weekend Wildcat

This is a very intriguing item and is worth some play today; he was chasing some sharp fractions last month despite the very lengthy layoff and should move forward here; a proven entity at the course and distance, he should prove a major pace presence.

Hondo Wando

He took a while to break through the n2l condition and ran into a repeat winner in his last local appearance; improving gelding's latest workout at five-eighths is noteworthy as well; should offer a square price once again.

Lost Decade

This colt barely held the place a month ago while a beaten favorite in this condition; newcomer to this oval has turned in some excellent breezes this month and looks like a legitimate trifecta factor at the least; should be a more generous price today.

Thaw

Lost serious ground in his most recent test but has only 2 non-turf efforts in his portfolio; the son of Rock Hard Ten has shown some fair prompting speed in recent starts and could prove the right value play in wide-open affair.

Kid Twist

Sophomore earned his third notch last month when drawing away with ease; he has little in the way of sprint experience and must add 5 pounds from the latest tally; on the plus side there is a fine trainer/jockey combination at the helm.

Gladhander

Yet to earn an exacta finish at this oval but he has shown a quick first gear at times; set way too fast a clip in his last assignment at nine furlongs, a distance clearly beyond his scope; broke maiden at today's distance by a large margin.

Bird's On Deck

Chicago invader may not have liked being jammed on the rail in his last test; draws favorable stalking post now and as a result, might be able to middle move effectively against some questionable front-runners; the betting value is assured.

Short Story Long

Crushed his field last month at Indiana while 1 to 5; he was compromised in his last run at Churchill when forced to race wide throughout; returns with Goncalves in the irons who has established a solid record for this barn; consider.

Contempt of Court

Ignore the last run against much better stock; he was sharp in victory 2 races back when closing with a rush for the score; he was aided by a red-hot pace in that victory, however, and such a rapid early tempo does not seems in the cards here; mixed signals. By Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Alexander Thegreat

Runner is one for 33 and fans jump on 12-1; why?; place horse in the KEE finale took an N2L allowance last Friday at MNR with a 65 Beyer; even if you figure he hated the off going in last, it's hard to be thrilled about the local slate; would think long and hard before taking too short a number here.

Great Call

Pro has more speed than he showed in the maiden breaker; he got a boost when the horse he just beat by 2 and a half graduated in a MSW in West Virginia with a 61 Beyer; runner did run here well in June and exited the live Saratoga fray; far too sharp not to respect.

Egyptian Warrior

Blinks on this stretch out play, look for rider to put him into the race from the sound of the bell; note he was clear for fun last time and he was far from disgraced in optional claimers this summer; first-time blinks a potent ploy for Maker; long gone?

Astronomer

Caught the sealed sloppy strip in the lone local effort; note place horse in last was clear by the length of the stretch; fit enough to drill several times since the win; not impossible chore.

Dehere On Tour

Around the wire more often than not, but note he only beat 4 runners in the lone win; the 8/31 winner repeated in a $10K N3L Delta Downs seller, then ran out of the money; the feeling he can get the trip as he was beaten just a neck here in May at the journey; could easily be enticed into gimmick action.

Bay Head

Brief threat when probably overmatched in last; toss the grass races and the form brightens; soph showed the ability to settle and mow down foes in the lone win and the sprint last time may have sharpened his zip; rates upset glance.

Northern Luck

First time in a conditioned claimer, but he has just not been the same zip code of a winner since the third career out; lack of speed a concern as it's never simple to concede big lengths early and get it done; 2nd time Lasix, hard to see that as the cure all.

Takepointsandrun

Soph debuts on the conventional here but several siblings won dirt routes; apparently not much of a work horse, gelding held aim at the top of the lane but went the other way; homebred needs plenty of help on the front end; even on the drop, this guy looks iffy today.

Contrapuntal

The good news is he graduated in the second off the layoff run; the bad news is he set the pedestrian splits last time and still had to hail the taxi cab; the lone win was a weird trip as he made the lead, dropped back, came on again to draw off; not many horses have gears like that; not sold on chances.

Thingamajigger

Five and a half clear in last, he ran his eyeballs out in defeat at this level in the September finale; slight improvement and he should be a handful; note he bobbled midway on the turn in last, showed agility to recover, and note 4th finisher was clear for run; primed. By Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Rave Reviews

Not wild about the lack of early speed that she's been showing in recent starts, but if she does feel up to one of her better performances, she does have the ability to rally herself into the mix against these; a favorable rail post helps her avoid early ground loss.

Zadina

Have to be at least mildly concerned with the decline in her recent form when seen that her better races were run as a member of the Mott barn, but maybe the assignment of Hernandez is a positive indicator as he's won with 3 of 5 mounts for this barn in 2013.

Vintage Strike

Her turf form hasn't been bad by any means but it does look like she's going to have to find a way to step it up along the Beyer Speed Figure scale to threaten the top contenders in here; prefer to look toward others.

Book Club

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won once from 12 starts for 16k, including 0-for-2 over turf; winner from latest won next out at Kee on 10/9 going 6 1/2f vs. N2X alw. rivals with a 75 Beyer; Hill has won with 48 of 156 (31%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Lady Raven

This is an outfit that has clicked at a 29% clip in 2013, but it is worth noting that they haven't been getting it done with turf starters, even if they've had limited opportunities; that said, this mare has shown enough over turf to merit contender status against these.

Abbey Street

She gave a solid account of herself against a decent group of N1X allowance rivals at Keeneland in her latest start and like the idea of her getting back over turf for this; she has a live look to her in this spot with Bridgmohan taking over.

Miss Scout

Stakes placed filly hasn't been at her best in recent starts and she was beaten by today's rival Al's Rosie in her latest outing; not going to be shocked if she gets the job done, but leaning toward others.

Liberated

She appears to be heading in the right direction for her third start back from a layoff and this half-sister to stakes winner Seruni (6-26, 351k, including 3 of 15 turf starts for 173k) deserves another chance to see what she can do over turf.

Al's Rosie

She got the better of today's rival Miss Scout in her latest outing and that level of performance looks like it can play well in this spot; Albarado has had a couple of starts to get to know her and feel that she has a chance to prove to be a solid 35k claim for her current connections.

Bustle

If you're looking for the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, she has it, and her turf form has been strong enough to suggest that she can keep it going while getting back over turf for this; the outside post isn't ideal, but she's clearly a contender; Leparoux has won with 3 of 5 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Zipso Facto

She needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to draw in, but she does appear to be in good form entering this event; not going to put her at the top of the list, but a spot underneath in the exotics might be within her grasp.

Finishing Touch

The long layoff alone is a reason to look in another direction and it isn't like her form was all that strong prior to the time off; she's to be viewed strictly as an outsider.

Patinka

Her form has taken a noticeable turn for the better since being placed over turf two starts ago, and even though she's going to need to produce her best performance to date to get the better of the top contenders in here, it's probably a good idea to keep an eye out for this lightly raced filly if she draws in.

Phonybooksnrecords

She made it look easy in breaking her maiden three starts ago at Indiana, but that level of performance hasn't been the norm for her; runner up from latest won next out here on 10/31 going 1 1/2m vs. N1X alw. rivals with a 72 Beyer. By Brian Pochman