Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for November 13, 2013

Race 1

Emma Lushka

Hung out to dry in the bow, but she did flash some semblance of speed in last; 1 for 4 dam won at 2, earned nearly $25K; this is her first to race; backers have to hope the drop shakes her up.

Primmensity (IRE)

It's been a mid-pack mentality so far but the last race came back fine as the place horse took a MSW at HAW and the 9th finisher took a maiden $20K seller here with a 47 Beyer; dam was unraced; lone half bro to race lost twice; expect better effort here.

Cupcake Justice

Mile debut leaves much to be desired; at least one sibling did win at 2 but sprinting; double figures on the tote every time, looking at the same fate here.

Zeruiah

Shorter trip could be just what the good doctor ordered as she makes her conventional dirt debut; renewed energy in the drill 5 days ago is a positive as is fact 6th finisher in last took a maiden $15K MNR seller next out and the 8th finisher took a MSW there; no juvenile success in the tree but kin Signature Event carried speed long on grass; pace figures quicker here with several sprinters going long; needs very best.

Secret Garden

Don't be too harsh about last as she could not stand up in the off going; the 2 for 14 half sis to win did at least cash at 2 but was sprint only; needs a rebound run.

Seattle Sass

Not much to go off the Indy form; stakes placed 6 for 39 dam was 2nd in best result at 2, earned over $150K; this is her first to race; if this gal can run at all, she figures to show some improvement on the class drop.

Athenian Beauty

Miss passed a couple of tired ones, could be more focused with the shades; SW 10 for 56 dam won at 2, banked nearly $450K; 4 of 7 siblings won; one was a triple winner at 2 and kin Ominous won routing once and banked nearly $200K; would have liked to have seen a local work.

Golden Annie

Interestingly, her 4 published moves are all at different venues; that Saratoga debut came back ultra live as the 2nd, 3rd, 5th and 7th finishers graduated next out; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; the one to beat.

Dixieland Samurai

First Samurai 8 for 107 with juvenile debuters; 5 for 8 sire took juvenile debut, won Champagne and Hopeful, banked over $900K; Group 1 winning dam didn't race at 2, earned over $100K; this is her first to race; lean toward watching one. By Brian Mulligan

Race 3

Broken Key

Not only was the maiden win Sept. 22 very nice but it came over this track; it also came going 1 1/16 miles so surely this mile trip is well within his grasp; that being said, it's first time vs. winners so that's a big hurdle but he's worked well since, got a nice Beyer and Margolis brings him back UP in price to boot.

Belief System

A NY-bred SW sprinting on dirt in May; was then eased on turf there in June bu the's bounced back nicely with 4 smart outings including a sharp 2nd here Sept. 27 vs. cheaper restricted foes; a nice 2nd for $40K at KEE Oct. 19 and it's good to see Maker move him up in price yet again for this; but geez, could he have worked much slower Nov. 2 (4fs in :53.60B, slowest of 25 that day), hmmmm?

Law Dog

2 wins came on dirt; only 2 dirt tries came on wet going to you can't assume he won't handle dry land; remember, too, Unusual Heat is one of the most versatile sires in the game as his progeny, who run mainly out West, run on anything; ample speed but he still comes with plenty of question marks; Hickey adds blinkers, too (0 or last 8 doing so).

Call Me George

3 wins came at a mile or longer so no doubt this trip suits; yes, 2 came at IND but the other came at FG so he's no one-track pony, and note a solid 3rd in a race similar to this here May 17, so he handles this place; Goncalves knows him well (up for 2 of his wins) and there's some versatility to this guy, too.

Exploring

Probably the one to beat as he goes for a 3rd straight win; just won sprinting on KEE Polytrack, yes, but his Sept. 6 win, after 8 months off, came on thist rack at this trip, so there's no doubt this place suits him just fine; got a nice Beyer that day, too (81) and that win came over some elders - he's facing 3yos only today; nice to see the hike in value after his $40K KEE win, though note he didn't beat Belief System by all that far (1 length) so it's not as if he comes here with some big margin for error.

Bellarmine

Lone win over winners came routing over this track, and the horse he beat is the nice Baffert 3yo Code West (came back to win a G3 over this track); things have gone south since for this guy but he's back in vs. 3yos, down in class, back to his preferred footing and maybe with that Oct. 26 race under his belt after a layoff it can all combine to get him back on track...maybe.

Corso's Law

Some good work at MNR this summer/fall but he went to HAW Oct. 30 and was no factor; in his defense, a sluggish start didn't help matters; down in class and he returns to the site of his maiden win; quick turnaround by Mogge encourages, too, and the last time Mena rode this guy came at FG March 8 - and the posed for pictures after an easy win.

Salsa's Return

2 real nice wins on PID's synthetic track in August; trouble is, the pattern since is worrisome - then came almost 2 months off and a dull return run at KEE Oct. 16; considering he seemed to turn the corner in August why then the layoff?; let's face it, you don't usually take a horse who's getting things figured out and put him away for a while, at least not without good reason; and then when he came back so-so at KEE that raises some concerns, too; at least there's not another layoff and while he drops in for a tag it's hardly a fire sale; but there are questions here, not the least of which is the footing. By Michael Hammersly

Race 4

Silver Summation

Like the idea of this stakes placed gelding making his first start sprinting over turf since August 2012, and given an alert break, he can find himself invovled in the running throughout; runner up from latest won next out at AP on 8/31 going 5f vs. 30k OPC's with an 87 Beyer.

Prado Dash

His most recent start might be a sign that he's regaining some of his better form, and that was a particularly encouraging performance when considering that it was his third start back from a very long layoff.

An Shanachie

He's run well in back-to-back starts since being placed over turf but this has a chance to prove to be a tough spot for him to get over the Churchill Downs turf course for the first time; 3rd finisher from latest won next out at Ind on 8/20 going 6f vs. 25k N2L claimers with a 75 Beyer.

Hesraisincain

Sire is 0-for-7 with his turf starters and dam won three of seven starts for 20k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to Marco Blanco (3-13, 34k, including 1 of 3 turf starts for 16k); he must step up his game in his first turf start if he's to contend.

Red Maserati

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won three of five starts for 102k, and she didn't make a turf start; this gelding is a 1/2 to stakes placed Captain Webb (3-22, 94k over turf); runner up from latest won next out at Haw on 11/3 going 6f vs. 35k OPC's with a 102 Beyer.

Great Attack

He's a G3 winner sprinting over this turf course and feel that he's kind of tough to look past in this spot after an encouraging performance after a layoff over the synthetic surface at Keeneland in his latest outing.

Mish Mosh

He's been in good form lately and he's making his first start for Ramsey and Maker after being claimed for 50k from his latest start; he has to be respected as a top contender, but he does have to prove to he can be at his best racing over turf; Leparoux has won with 3 of 4 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Paddy's Notes

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and G2 winning dam won 5 of 12 starts for 440k, and she didn't make a turf start; turf is a question, but he's been a consistent performer, and Mena has won with 7 of 27 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Bergerac

Multiple graded stakes placed veteran ran well going 6 1/2-furlongs over turf at KD just two starts ago and his overall turf form has been strong enough to give him a competitive look in this spot.

Blingboy

He seems to be better off racing over dirt or a synthetic surface than he is over turf, and from five turf starts, he's yet to prove that he can produce a performance that is strong enough to threaten the top contedners in here.

Joe Hollywood

This race doesn't look like it will fall apart if it has to be moved to the main track, and this 5-year-old will command top contender status if he gets to go; Santana has won with 83 of 316 (26%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Wildcat Country

Stakes placed runner brings a good deal of early speed with him and he was last seen recording a sharp runner-up finish behind a horse who returned to win his next start at Ind on 10/1 going 6f vs. 40k OPC's with an 89 Beyer.

Radiant Talent

His dirt form has been solid and his latest effort is right in line with what it might take to get the job done in this spot; add in a high win percentage barn, and there's plenty to be positive about in this direction.

Shmooz Talker

One of two live looking horses signed on in here MTO for PTK and Kobiskie, and the 92 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his latest effort is the best last race figure in this field; 3rd finisher from latest won next out here on 11/9 going 6f vs. 25k claimers with a 79 Beyer.

Exultant

His turf form has only been so-so and not sure how he's going to like testing himself in a five-furlong dash like this; he looks like he's up against with a tough outside post awaiting if he draws in.

Gentlemans Code

If he's able to find his way in off of the Also Eligible list, he'll give the Ward barn a pretty serious looking 1-2 punch; winner from latest won next out at GP on 2/2 going 5f over turf in a 75k stakes with a 107 Beyer; Davis has won with 19 of 65 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Sasueno

He's been on top of his game in recent starts and he deserves another chance to see what he can do racing over turf; this barn has had a strong year and note the work that they've been doing with turf sprinters.

Sunday Mass

It would have been nice to have seen him show more in his latest start after being claimed for 25k two starts ago, but his overall form has been solid, and he's another who deserves another chance to see what he can do racing over grass. By Brian Pochman

Race 5

Stony Road

Legitimate excuses to that initial defeat while huge odds; his sire won the G2 Clark and 2.58 million overall; the dam won 2 of 26 attempts and 11K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Tiz a Star

Yet to finish in the money although he did show some fair prompting speed in the race 2 back at Ellis; makes the always dangerous first visit to the claiming ranks yet recent workout activity is very limited.

Hoosier Neighbor

One of several in this line-up descending from special weights; he was compromised by the rail slot in the last pair and can improve from this post today; despite the longer distance today, he can hit the board at a price.

Northern Empire

Goes back to blinkers after showing no firepower in the slop recently; finished midpack in his only attempt at this distance; will have to get into gear sooner today and will be generous odds once again despite the drop.

Lil Napoleon

Far back each time but he did not have a smooth beginning in either race; his sire won a G2 stakes and 733K while the dam scored in 1 of 14 appearances earning 19K; this is her only foal to compete.

Hoosier Pete

Displayed improved prompting speed in that second run; his sire won 594K including G2 success while the dam went zero for 3; among the winning siblings is 121K bankroller Gunner; this apprentice has established a good record at the meet.

Achoo Again

Retreated early in both starts; his sire won 2 of 6 and 90K while the dam involved won 2 of 27 and 11K; this is her only foal to make it to the races; very difficult to recommend at this time despite the class relief.

Buck James

Caught wet tracks in both appearances, each featuring a troubled getaway; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and 1.85 million; the dam won 1 of 8 ad 26K; among the winning siblings is 261K earner Black n Beauty.

Pollinator

Although yet to finish in the money, he undergoes several changes today including new equipment; latest breeze from the gate was decent and he reverts to the original rider; extension in distance can actually work in her favor.

Rojo Inferno

This gelding was involved in a lengthy pace battle in his last route attempt and had early troubles to boot; may get a much more relaxed journey here and looks like he will be in the early mix at the very least; can surprise the lot.

Hoopestime

Never threatened in his maiden voyage of more than 2 months ago; his sire won a G1 and 1.56 million; the dam was without victory in 7 tries; among the winning siblings is 79 earner Pistoria. By Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Bold Broad

Double-digit losses in all three of her starts and she is moving up in class so it is hard to see her making much of an impact here; it has also been over a month since she ran and there are currently no published works showing; passing.

Mystic Charm

Debuts for Carrolll who can have them ready to roll first time at a price; War Pass is a 15% debut sire; all of her four older sibs to race are winners the best being $189K sprint stakes winner Whirl; nice set of works showing; not out of the question.

More Than a Song

Looks like the one to beat if she handles dirt as well as she did turf in her latest at Kentucky Downs; the horse that beat her won a first-level allowance race with an 84 Beyer Speed Figure in her next start at Keeneland; strong stats for Asmussen in all the relevant categories and she'll appreciate the easier company with the drop into a maiden claiming race for the first time; the pick

Miss Brown Sugar

He latest at Keeneland was her best so far and she lost any chance she had when she stumbled at the start of her previous start here; toss the race and this half-sister to $156K stakes winner Ha Ha Tonka looks like a major player.

Rhinestone Diva

She may have needed her race at Hawthorne where she dueled from the rail and held on well to finish second; the Beyer Speed Figure came in a bit light but it was her first start in nine months and she figures to take a big step forward in her second start back; second foal out of a stakes-winning dam that won 10 sprints and earned $328K comes out of a live barn and at the least should be considered for the exotics.

Electric Strike

First timer is by a sire that is just 8 for 205 with first-time starters; dam won 3 races and earned $29K; both sibs are winners but the top earner has banked $34K; works don't tell us much and she comes out of a barn that doesn't win very often with horses making their debuts; passing.

Sherika

Not a bad effort in her debut over Polytrack at Keeneland and she figures to move forward with a race behind her; her trainer is also off to a strong start at the current meet; all four sibs are winners the best being $205K Magdalena's Chase who won 9 races and was stakes-placed 4 times; not impossible.

All American Girl

Debuts for Deakins who has won with 2 of his last 5 first-time starters';Tapit is roughly 12% as a debut sire; dam compiled a 1-4-1 record from 10 starts for earnings of $49K; this is her first foal; bullets fired in her last two works on the training track but others look more attractive.

Infliction

Dropped to this level for the first time in her latest at Keeneland and almost got it done as the chalk but gave it up late; she has decent tactical speed and should get a nice trip from a stalking position; she ran wll over this surface in Sept. so she shouldn't mind the move back to dirt; contention runs deep.

Five Star Dixie

She showed good speed in both of her starts but not much stamina; her latest was a key race and the winner won her next star and recently finished second in a $100K stakes at Belmont; 3 of this gal's 4 sibs to race are multiple winners and she's been working well enough for a trainer that can have them ready to go coming off this type of layoff; interesting. By Randy Goulding

Race 7

Defer Heaven

He steps up in class off the claim, but has several factors working in his favor; for starters, he's a winner; he's 4-for-5 and the Beyer Speed Figure of 81 that he earned last out is the field's co-highest career number in a distinction he shares with Marchwood; has an inside post for the first time in his career.

Grey by You

He's another stepping up in class off the claim and last out he was a close fourth against $20K foes at Kee; note the runner-up from the race has come back to take a $50K conditioned claimer at Kee, with a Beyer Figure of 73; is back on dirt, where he is a multiple winner.

Salt Free

His last feels like a toss out for the fact that the start was is first on a synthetic surface; moves back to dirt and note all of his wins have come over such a track; he also has reason to move forward here in his second start since September; has a chance to control the pace.

Bellachino

He's getting back to the conditions of his best recent effort - sprinting on dirt; exits a quick turf sprint at Kee and before that set the pace for a while in the mud in a two-turn race at Ind; is seeking success outside the statebred ranks, and is spotted well in first start at CD.

Marchwood (GB)

He won in dramatic fashion last out, when just up in a $25K optional claimer that went in good time; for the effort he earned what ranks as this field's co-highest last-race Beyer Figure; he shares that distinction with Defer Heaven; might get a tracking trip off Salt Free; win candidate.

Lew and Mike

Barn changes things up and adds blinkers, which is a high percentage equipment move for Drury; this one also makes a meaningful class move, as he has spent his career facing steeper; has natural speed, a class edge and seems like one who might get a nice tracking trip behind Salt Free; leading contender.

Halon

He's one who figures to be making his case in the later stages; barn cuts him back to six furlongs after a mile and a sixteenth race in which he dueled for a good while; will add blinkers, and like that he's one of just a few in here with a win over the main track at CD; could share.

Montezuma Express

He's in from Haw, where last out he was second in a $25K claimer; the winner from that race returned in his next start to win an allowance at Haw, with a Beyer Figure of 82; has natural speed and might get a nice tracking trip behind Salt Free; also could be poised to peak in his third start since August; another who can share.

Barnyard Fiddler

He exits a race that has become a key one; the third-place finisher came back in his next start to take a $10K claimer at Mnr with a Beyer Figure of 75, and the seventh-place finisher, Gold For Cash, a $25K claimer, with a Beyer of 87; is back on dirt, site of both of his career wins; yet another who can share. By Mary Rampellini

Race 8

Aripeka

Lone win was sitting just off the speed and hopes for a similar trip here; will be able to save ground for this which should help the cause but grass is the major issue; the debut runner-up and show finishers posted 81-72 Beyer speed figures in next-out CD-HAW-MSW wins.

Piceance

Lone win was on the lead and he's made the frontend in a few other starts during career; clearly stamina is a major issue losing to Batten the Hatches off the 51-day absence and hopes to carry the gate speed a little further for this; the 3-back winner repeated in an ELP-optional claimer with an 86 Beyer.

Mean Marine

Back on grass noting his only other turf attempt was a career-low Beyer; did not fire on a synthetic surface in last when defeated by the show runner who Beyered 89 in his next-out CD alw. win; best race by far was on dirt vs. the 2-back winner who repeated in a CD-optional claimer with a 93 speed figure.

Charismatic Pulpit

Exiting sprints figures close to the lead for this then hopes to hold off the closers; sire is 44-for-435 with 1st-turf starters; SW dam did not race on grass (5-for-19, 159K); her only other foal to race is 9-0-0-0 Major Duomo (14K) who did not compete on turf; stretches out past 6.5F for the 1st time and is bred both sides for distance; the 2-back winner repeated in an OP-optional claimer with a 94 Beyer.

One Golden Road

Lone win was a stalkng trip but rallied nicely from 11th when posting his 2-back co-field-best Beyer performance; main knock is that he exits a career-low speed figure 3rd start off the claim when wanting no parts of wet turf and a Mile and a half; has been working smartly for this for a high-percentage turf trainer.

Red Wings

Posted a co-field-best Beyer on dirt at today's distance but showed nothing vs. similar rivals on turf which makes him an outsider for this if it remains on the green; lone win was a stalking trip which he got in last but floundered badly in deep stretch; 40-day absence for a 6%-winning fresh trainer does not add to the appeal.

Cougar Ridge

Adds blinkers for the 1st time trying to offer a better-closing punch as he finished evenly in the lane in his 1st-two USA starts; trying to make amends after well supported at the betting windows in recent losses; the CD-dirt workout for this was not enticing; posted his best Racing Post Rating in Ireland at today's distance on the green.

Batten the Hatches

Blinkers added for last and racing on a less-than-firm turf course produced a career-best Beyer; his lone win was stalking the pace and was probably used too much in the early stages of most recent when dueling for the front; 13 minor awards during career with 1 win suggests he often races well in defeat and has not run a bad race in a long time; hard to leave off the exotic tickets.

Bold Challenger

Needed last start off the more-than 5-month layoff when showing no run from the gate noting his CD-turf win at today's distance was from a stalking trip; has been working smartly for this and perhaps latest can be excused racing on less-than-firm turf for the 1st time.

Mt Tronador

KEE-synthetic-surface bullet workout for this; turf graduation was accomplished on less-than-firm turf where he rallied from 9th at longer; was able to overcome post 10 for last so a good sign that he is drawn outside again today; getting up in time at 1 Mile is an issue; the debut show finisher Beyered 84 in his next-out CD-MSW win.

Prado Cat

Exits a career-low Beyer when wanting no parts of a wet-main track; lone win was on the lead and made the front in last for the 1st time since but then floudered badly; the win rider stays right here but is not coming into this race in strong form; view as a pace presence.

Quip Trip

Won right on the lead at 2F shorter so is the one to catch; sire is 36-for-284 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a SW dam who did not race on grass (5-for-18, 393K); just 2 races during career so still has some upside; steady worktab posted off the 6-day absence.

Bold Front

Long-layoff after setting the pace in a key race; the show finisher from last Beyered 83 in a next-out FG alw. win; he defeated both the 6th and 8th-place finishers from last who Beyered 75-72 in next-out HOU-allowance and FG-5K-claiming wins.

Street Call

Good-closing kick at shorter to win on CD dirt so would not mind this moved to a fast-main track; was unable to finish well enough in 2013 turf losses when defeated by similar rivals which leaves him ranked a notch below the top contenders. By Art Gropper

Race 10

Cherokee Beads

Didn't factor first time over the local sod after a couple of solid turf efforts on the Ellis green; she doesn't have much speed and the move to the fence could get her buried in a big field, but she does switch to a top turf pilot who has gotten off to a nice start at the stand.

Bird County

Wasn't beaten all that much in her initial turf spin at Keeneland off 3 months on the shelf; she did show a little bit of early interest in her prior couple of starts and maybe that helps her from here, but her pedigree suggests that her better running will likely be done on dirt.

Aspergia

Worked ok at Keeneland for this last week after trouble early left her with too much to do late on the drop to claimers there last month; barn does do a solid job of late on the surface switch and they boast a local winner, but this gal's initial turf spin was weak and has us only watching her in this spot.

Civility Pledge

Got some give in the ground while making her first start in 9 months on the Keeneland lawn and ran a big number compared to what these regularly run; filly's turf debut over the local sod at this time last year was also very good and she's shown the tactical foot to secure a good spot from the bell in here; they'll have her to beat.

Iwantthat

She's been idle since fighting hard until midstretch second time on the lawn at Arlington this summer; filly will get Bridgmohan for her local debut and she's only run a few times so she certainly has a right to take a good step forward in her return to the races; main danger.

Careless Moment

Tries the lawn for the first time for a barn that does ok moving them to the infield; gray didn't do much sprinting on dirt in her debut run and the synthetic stretchout didn't do much for her, either; step up to the MSW ranks doesn't figure to help her much, either.

Andri

Took a little bit of money in her sprint debut at Indiana Downs and offered a little big of late run with the outcome already determined; she will stretchout and try the lawn for the initial time in this spot and maybe that helps, as the barn does well with the move to the green, but she's got some improving to do in order to step with some of these.

Stella Cavallo

Stretches back out for her first local lawn try and she did offer some late run routing 2 back in Indiana; barn does well with its runners tackling added ground and this filly did work sharply here a couple of weeks back so maybe an improved try is on tap; solid journeyman pilot gets aboard and the price should be nice.

Bermuda Lane

Moves outside for her second local turf start and her initial local spin was pretty poor; filly goes for a barn that does ok with its runners returning from the freshening, but she boasts some moderate breezes and will need to step things up in order to have a serious say in the outcome here.

Tiz a Treat

Outside drawn filly faded after moving to the lead from a wide draw on the Keeneland green last time and now she'll return to a course over which she didn't run so well as a baby; she'll again start from a tough slot and don't know that she'll get a better clip to run at in this spot.

Gigahertz

AE enters this fresh with a solid set of drills on her tab after failing to factor on the Kentucky Downs lawn; filly will start from a tough outside post if a scratch allows her to go and will likely be limited to contending for a minor award.

Elusive Dame

AE will get Leparoux if she draws in to make her turf debut on the stretchout; filly didn't do much in her Keeneland unveiling, but she did break at the back of the pack in that synthetic heat and the barn does excel with both second out runners and those moving to the infield; pedigree suggests a much improved try will be on tap if she gets to go.

Belle Natalie

AE tasted victory on the Ellis lawn and she did it rather impressively before losing credit for the score; her subsequent surface spin came against much better so the weak effort can be excused and now she'll get back in with maidens; pedigree suggests she'll be a better sprinter than router but she's already shown she can run.

Giant Diamond

She's mired on the AE list and not likely to get in for her return from better than half a year on the shelf following her well supported Tampa Bay Downs debut run; filly gets Lasix if she does find a way to go and the new barn does well with this type first out; has a right to improve second time out but it wouldn't be easy from out here. By Steve Grabowski