Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for May 3, 2014

Race 1

Trace Creek

Arkansas bred ships in to make his first local start after beating restricted runners in a 2 turn mile event at Oaklawn Park; he's shown some early interest going long and maybe he'll have a little extra to offer late in this one turn heat; he'll get a switch to Leparoux here and the price does figure to be better than it was in his last couple of starts.

Upkeep

Beaten chalk in his last 2 turns back while dropping out of the allowance ranks after 9 panels proved too much for him in his return from the freshening; return to dirt and the shorter trip should help a runner who owns the numbers to step with this field; Leparoux goes to the rail runner but he'll get the services of another solid journeyman pilot for this; picks up some weight but is one to consider.

Nick's Pick

Lightly raced sophomore tries older for the first time in his initial try at 8 panels; shipper goes for a barn that hits at a big clip with its stretchouts and this colt has the speed to be involved from the bell; his pedigree suggests the longer the better so don't think he'll have a problem with this one turn route; facing a field in which he could find himself leading the way early, he's a contender.

Victory Colors

Took him 11 cracks to break through the maiden ranks and now he'll try winners; he rallied from the fence to score over wet footing in his Oaklawn finale, taking to the off going as his pedigree suggested he would and earning a career best number in the process; gray would need to take another step forward if the better guys in here showed up with their best and prefer to side against that happening.

Professor Trek

Enters this on a figure upswing and off a solid effort on the turn back at Keeneland; he hasn't run as fast on dirt as he has on synthetic footing, though, and now he'll take on a much tougher bunch than he has been; looks to be a big price in this spot.

Prosecution

Versatile colt makes his local debut after rallying from well out of it to get second money from a wide starting slot in his first crack off this sharp barn's claim; he draws a better post for his drop to the starter allowance level and that should enable him to sit closer to the top from the bell today; giving him the nod to beat this bunch home on the turn back.

Foolhardy

Rallied into a slow clip to score on the drop at Keeneland last week and now he'll pick up weight while returning to dirt for the first time since a solid placing in his lone surface start in his first trip to the gate this year; he'll need some help in front of him to factor for a share.

Doctor Peter

Outside drawn gelding returns to face better in this protected spot while making his first start off the claim by this barn; he'll show up just 3 weeks off the career best Beyer effort and it may not be so easy for him to run back to it; he doesn't have much one turn experience but he did run ok in his 2 local spins and his recent route tries are tough to just look past. - Steve Grabowski

Race 2

No Surrender

Exits a field-best Beyer speed figure which occurred following a long layoff with a much shorter 36-day hiatus for this; the graduation romp looks better since the runner-up finisher posted a 67 Beyer speed figure in his next-out $17,500-maiden-claiming win.

Ship to Shore

Graduated 1st off the claim but has been seeking the correct level since; another late runner who seems compromised by the lack of defined pace projected; figures to save all the ground then make one run; both-CD losses on wet footing so deserves a chance to improve on a fast track.

Sheikinator

Hard to ignore the trainer's 0-for-15 record with blinkers-on since 2013; reunites with the win rider from his CD-graduation at today's distance; last-out OP runners won 6 of the first 25 races at CD in 2014; wish the workout for this was more appealing.

B and B's Pulpit

Just his 2nd start not racing vs. Louisiana breds; he will be taking a class leap for this; the rider of his lone win and 7 of 8 starts sides with Demander for this; lone start on grass produced a win and Beyer-career Top but remains on dirt despite posting his 3rd-lowest speed figure ever in last.

Demander

Happy to be back on dirt after the far-back synthetic-surface start; won right off nearly a 7-month layoff now makes his 3rd start in 8 weeks; another who has been working well in the mornings always a good sign over a sometimes tricky-CD oval; great sign that Hernandez stays when having other options.

Chas's Legacy

Long absence since the maiden breaker for a trainer 0-for-9 since 2013 with long-layoff runners; the show finisher who he defeated in last is expected to race in the Kentucky Derby; he Beyered 80 in a next-out CD-MSW win before finishing 3rd in the La. Derby.

Rockford

Just one start on dirt a fading 5th-place finish; the CD worktab suggests we may see an improved runner; good sign that his career-best Beyer was posted on dirt; the December winner made it 3-for-3 with a 100K stakes win producing an 87 Beyer.

Unstoppable Colby

Exits his 2nd lowest Beyer ever so needs a serious wakeup call to shock these; lone win was gate-to-wire so has a chance in a paceless event to make the front then keep on going; the 2-back winner is the Kentucky Derby favorite and won next out in the SA Derby with a 107 Beyer; view as a major-pace presence. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Masochistic

Some excellent workouts at Santa Anita are in the bank as he tries to rebound from his maiden voyage; the only 4-year-old in this field was sired by Sought After who was unraced as was the dam; winning sibling is 18K earner Bellagio Road.

Reeder

Pressed the issue until the stretch in his first attempt; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Sprint and 1.25 million; the dam won 3 of 15 and 119K; among the winning siblings is 153K earner Riopelle; note Lasix addition.

Q Two

Showed much more prompting speed in that second run when hung out to dry; his sire won a G1 and 752K overall; the dam won 1 of 5 tries and 11K; sib to G3 winner Bright Abundance who banked a total of 379K.

Swift Humor

New face hails from G2 type Distorted Humor who captured 769K and whose offspring have won 126 out of 753 debuts; the dam won 7 of 17 races and 339K; among the winning siblings is 709K earner Griffin Gate.

Grand Slam Kid

Curious import ran a very strong race at Charles Town when losing all momentum at the start; favored in 2 of 3 his starts, he may prove to be a pace factor of some concern today; much more generous odds should be the case at post time.

Splinter

Beginner was sired by the prolific Malibu Moon who won 1 of 2 and 33K (his progeny have scored in 107 out of 765 initial races); the dam was unraced; among the winning sibs is 27K earner One Man One Vote.

Ranger Regiment

A victim of exceptionally wide trips in several of his starts, he will need to work out a better racing path today; slated to add blinkers today, he should improve upon his lackluster performance here last November.

A Touch of Poetry

On pace cross-reference, this colt stands a tall chance this afternoon and is the selection; the equipment change, and improved half-mile breeze only a week ago, can help with the endurance levels; has already met some quality runners in his brief career; respect.

Coastal Moon

Lost plenty of energy prior to the start of his maiden voyage; see Splinter, above, for information about the same sire; the dam went 2 for 7 earning 26K; winning siblings include 253K winner The Nth Degree; note trainer stat regarding second-timers.

Boss Gone

Yet another runner in this line-up whose debut featured a troubled getaway; his sire, a pure sprinter, won 831K including G1 success; the mom won 4 of 29 and 74K; winning siblings include 50K earner Summon the Rain. - Jim Kachulis

Race 4

Abundantly Clear

Pulpit about 10% with first-time turfers in a 453-runner sample; sire won the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass, never turfed; dam won a Grade 3, excelled on grass, banked nearly $400K; this is her first to race; if you figure she just needed her last, you can make a case for a move forward; Castellano got a chance to figure her out; respect.

Faerie Queene

She pressed and faded in race she just may have needed; the 6/8 place horse last year took a N1X in Indy next out, was 2nd a head in a $69K stakes there in 2013 closer; back on the preferred surface now, she put in a couple of nice moves since the last effort; must pick it up after last attempt.

Magical Steps

Keen to run last time, she may be better served settling and rolling like she did in the stateside debut; pretty snappy move last Saturday can be seen as a positive; pace could be hot enough for her with a couple of sprinters in the field going long; back to Graham; interesting.

Kimallosa

She has trained forwardly for this including the bullet move on the 18th; note sure she was beating anybody last time; the place horse has lost 5 times since; respect barn and this rider has had good success for Kenneally.

Night Song

Filly has more speed than she just showed; the fact she ran well in her debut gives her a shot to fire fresh; youngster has a shot to have a nice career too as kin to 3 winners and two of them banked 6 figures; don't ignore.

Sultry Warrior

She may have felt uncomfortable from the rail in last; and she was never herself as she got to climbing; she was flattered when the winner of last repeated in a $62.5K optional before running 4th beaten about 3 in a Grade 3; last angle: she's proven on the course with this rider.

Flashy Gal

Sent along on a yielding course she may have disliked; she has been a handful at times; she has been hard to load, she has hit the gate and she may be better served settling and making the one run; don't sell too short.

First Romance

Miss was professional in the return; place horse in the 2013 closer graduated next out and then won at this level with an 84 Beyer; maybe she just wanted to roll early all the time; she had to fight to lead last time but held off all comers; the concern: waters are much steeper this time.

Finishing Touch

One for 17 is a tough number to bet into no matter how you slice it; only in the money since getting there in the off going; she could be compromised by the post today; passing.

Kyriaki

Respect this interloper; she drew the rail on the tricky hill on 2/22 and that is a tough post unless a runner has clearing speed; she was inching toward the winner in last and now had the 2 races to build on; connections thought enough of her to try the stakes last year, she has proven she can get the trip, and should run huge. - Brian Mulligan

Race 5

Watery Moon

Won at first asking in smart fashion but the new distance today and, more importantly, the rail slot, could pose problems; recent workout activity is steady but still believe he does not warrant the similar short price as in the maiden score.

Twang

This grey may get a golden pace opportunity today as the lone speed; exits a very strong tightening race when pinned to the rail and now may find himself free and clear; ran into an excellent group last summer at Saratoga (including Arkansas Derby winner Danza) and faces no such powerhouses now; reverts to winning rider Rosario.

Standpoint

Closed with a rush to tally at Oaklawn but was aided by very swift fractions that day; he did defeat older runners in that score and now returns to his own generation; ran very well under this pilot in his debut race here last season; would benefit if there is a red-hot early pace.

Saint Finian

Lost significant ground in his first route test but did not finish far off the winner; his sole main track effort turned out to be a key affair and he can improve off the surface switch and turnback; remains a difficult runner to pinpint at this time.

How Bout That

Enjoyed the wet-fast surface when graduating in March; his local workout regimen shows a steady progression and he should be able to handle the extra furlong here; in his initial appearance, he ran into a powerhouse, blowout winner; maturing gelding should be respected.

Johnmack Daddy

Had to drop to the claiming level in order to earn the first notch and the race 4 back, when trounced by Thundergram should be dismissed; may be able to lay close enough to launch a strong middle move but will have to run a personal best in order to run down the front-runners.

Thundergram

Gets major class relief today and although he has not been in a sprint setting since the first start of his career, he fits this group very well; was favored in that initial outing here last season and his experience at seven-eighths is a big plus; obvious true contender regardless of the soil condition at post time.

Ulanbator

All-out to win at the straightaway mile at Gulfstream but had to overcome trouble when doing so; met repeat winners in his first 3 ventures and has breezed well during April with a focus on the move on 4/22; draws a favorable slot as well, overlooking the likely pacesetters.

Jessica's Star

Perfect exacta record over different surfaces and distances; maiden score over a sloppy track was explosive but even if there is a fast track today, he should be able to stay within calling distance; the gelding's latest breeze was upbeat as well.

Bitters 'n Bourbon

Tailed off in the last pair at Oaklawn but, like a few others in this field, his prior experience over the Churchill surface should help his cause today; in that debut run last November at huge odds, he unleashed a strong run on an extra-wide path and just missed the place award.

Sultry Cat

Broke maiden at today's distance when facing 10 opponents and this outside slot is often a tactical advantage at the journey; most recent half-mile breeze is superior and although it is hard to judge off one performance, he earned a comparable Beyer and cannot be overlooked. - Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Tapicat

If she performs the way that she did two starts back at Santa Anita, she'll have a big chance to walk away with the top prize in here, and love to see the positional speed she has to employ after breaking from an advantageous rail post; add in a top turf barn and a strong turf rider, and there's plenty to be positive about in this direction.

Coffee Clique

She's put together some sharp winning performances in her career and she enters this race off of a very nice win over the Gulfstream Park turf course; don't like to see Rosario aboard another in here, but she loses nothing with Castellano taking over; she can't be ignored in this spot.

Miz Ida

There is a long layoff in play, and this is a very difficult assignment for her first start since November, but she has run well when fresh in the past, and she's been at her best over this turf course; prefer to lean toward others, but not going to be shocked if she gives a good account of herself.

Dame Marie

At times she's hinted at having the ability to get the job done in a spot like this, but she just seems to be a cut or two below the top contenders in here; respect the fact that she's comfortable racing over this turf course, but feel that a lot of pieces are going to need to fall into place for her to have a chance at the top spot.

Absolute Crackers (IRE)

She usually shows up and runs her race and like the idea of her going synthetic-to-turf for her second start back from a layoff; Garcia is a go-to rider for this barn and they appear to have this mare ready to give a solid account of herself; winner form latest won next out at Kee on 4/18 going 1 1/16m in a G3 with a 96 Beyer.

I'm Already Sexy

She ran some big races in her final starts as a 3-year-old with Geroux aboard, and if her recent workouts are any indication, then she appears to be set for her first start as a 4-year-old; she owns the ability to adapt to any early pace scenario, and if the early pace is on the slow side, she might be the one leading them through the opening stages.

Ready Signal

Prior to this year, she was the type of horse that would pop up with a solid run every once in a while, but it looks like her connections have really figured her out as she's reeled off three consecutive strong performances; she's not a stranger to outrunning her odds, so count her out of the mix at your own risk.

Effie Trinket

Not sure that she's quite up to the level of the top contenders in here, but this is a hard-trying filly who has won half of her 12 career starts, including four-for-nine over turf; this is a sharp outfit and she did run well in a G2 event over this turf course just two starts back, but going to side with others.

Centre Court

Maybe the outside post isn't ideal at this trip, but this Grade 1 winning mare sports some of the stronger turf form in this race, and she's handy enough to help herself manage a comfortable trip after breaking from out here; she's three-for-three over the CD turf and she shares the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here with Effie Trinket; must consider. - Art Gropper

Race 7

Street Girl

Over one year winless; her Beyer speed figures need a significant boost to land a share with these; 1-for-11 fast-dirt record is not very appealing showing her best Beyer on a wet track and exits an improved try but on an all-weather oval; the 3-back winner and runner-up finisher Beyered 98-96 in next-out OP-Grade 2 and SA-80K-stakes wins.

Heart Stealer

7F-CD graduate is back after after producing her 2nd-graded stakes tally stalking the pace; sharp as could be noting last-out GP runners won only 2 of the first 25 races at the CD-2014 meet; her 3-back G3 score was flattered by the show runner who Beyered 93 in a next-out GP-75K stakes win.

Judy the Beauty

Right style to win this; the first two-7F CD dirt winners at the current meet raced 5th at the 1st call as she did in latest win; went 3-for-6 with a Grade 1 win since her solid runner-up finish on CD dirt one year ago defeating the show finisher who Beyered 87 in a next-out CD-108K stakes win; obviously her 1-for-7 dirt record suggests she may be better on synthetic despite the field-best Beyer on dirt in the Breeders' Cup 3-back which was her only defeat since October; looms a logical contender for win honors.

Saturday Nthe Park

Projects to be a pace presence off the turf fade producing her lowest Beyer since November; ambitious placement here; her career-best Beyer was at 1.5F shorter than this; last 3 wins were stalking trips but almost can't help being a pace presence stretching out; know her early but unsure about late.

Scherzinger

Should love the 98-day absence as her other-layoff races were superb; have to love her versatility winning last-to-1st two back then scoring in latest when racing 1st at the 1st call; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 91 in a next-out SA alw. win; the pick.

Iotapa

This is her 1st start outside of California and has Scherzinger to beat losing to that one the last time sent today's 7F distance; her 2-back victory was avenged in latest by the runner-up finisher - now the absence; career-best Beyer was at longer than this so assuming she wants more distance.

Speedinthruthecity

Has never been better taking an OP stakes in her 1st-ever wet-track start; sharp-fast form as well and is 2-for-2 on CD dirt both at today's distance; 4-for-7 since switching to the Asmussen barn and while she will need to up her game to a brand new level to win it all she fits well.

Midnight Lucky

2013 Kentucky Oaks pacesetter won despite trouble when last seen but nearly a 1-year absence since exiting a best-last-race Beyer when defeating the runner-up finisher who posted a 102 speed figure in a next-out BEL-G1 win; working very well for a capable-long-layoff trainer and 7F seems like a good distance off the 1-turn Mile score especially without a lot of projected pace she figures to be a force from bell to finish; scary if ready; the one to beat. - Art Gropper

Race 8

Cleburne

Moves back to the lawn after failing to threaten the top 2 finishers at Calder while making his first start since late last summer; G3 SW over the local main track did break his maiden first out on the lawn and he has a right to move forward with his last behind him; he'll get a strong journeyman pilot for this, but his numbers suggest he'll need to improve quite a bit to step with some of these.

Chief Barker (IRE)

Import makes his first start since the fall when in against G1 foes overseas and coming up short late; colt ran off 3 straight on the green to begin his career and he will get Lasix and a sharp journeyman pilot for his first stateside start; Keeneland drill earlier in the week gives the indication they may ask him for some early interest in this comebacker; expecting he'll prove a threat today.

Quotient

Just missed taking a stake in his first start against winners after breaking his maiden at today's trip out West; lightly raced gelding has been working regularly in the interim and should appreciate the slight stretch back out here; one to consider.

Long On Value

Didn't have much to say late when beaten chalk sprinting on the inner track at Aqueduct last out and was given a little extra time off the effort; colt did break his maiden second time out on the lawn so the surface switch shouldn't bother him but he's been sprinting and don't know that this 2 turn trip is going to help move him forward; nice to see Rosario take interest, but have to pass on him today.

Global View

Showed up with nothing in the off the turf stake at Keeneland and finished well behind some of these in that one; he's back to his preferred footing here and the interim drill in the local mud suggests it isn't as if he's gone off form, but rather he just didn't take to the synthetic surface; giving him the nod to take a big step forward, getting back on track and beating these home.

Craftsman (IRE)

Shipper has yet to hit the board in 3 stateside spins after showing some ability on the lawn in Ireland as a juvenile; colt did offer improved early lick in his return to the green last time but there's other speed in here and that won't help his chances of staying if they again choose to send him; looking elsewhere for the winner.

Big Bazinga

Ran ok in the G1 Blue Grass last time and finished within 3 lengths of the winner in Turfway's G3 Spiral 2 back but maybe its the lawn he really wants as he was pretty good over in this winter at Gulfstream; he did get a solid clip in front of him in that lone surface try and the barn is winless with its recent runners moving from synthetic to the lawn; maybe for a minor share.

Storming Inti

Gets back on his preferred footing after failing to offer enough from a wide spot in the off the turf Transylvania at Keeneland; his speed usually has him involved from the bell and though he faltered late in his lone 9 panel trip, don't think the distance will pose him any problem today; thinking he proves to be the one they'll have to beat.

General Jack

Beaten last out chalk in the allowance ranks tackles graded stakes foes for the first time since the quick retreat in the G1 Breeders Futurity last fall at Keeneland; gets Rosie as Castellano opts to side elsewhere; broke his maiden second out on the lawn in a minor stake in Minnesota; tough task from here.

Picozza

Earned a career best number when runner up in the Transylvania while tackling winners for the initial time off a powerful Gulfstream maiden score; surface switch should help and the barn's top pilot does stay put; post draw is an obvious concern, but he earned that 9 panel maiden score while breaking from an outside slot and found his way to the fence; likely to take money off the big number he earned on synthetic footing but he must be considered.

Woodfield Springs

He's another who earned his best number in an off the turfer last time and was just a neck off the guy drawn to his inside here in that one; he took advantage of a solid clip in front of him to break his maiden at a shorter trip at Gulfstream and now he'll move from inside draws to the extreme outside slot; lightly raced colt does have a right to keep getting better but may not offer a lot of value from here. - Steve Grabowski

Race 9

Capo Bastone

The class is there off the Grade 1 win last summer; connections took a shot BC Day, but it was the wrong surface; pinballed at the break in last and he never recovered; love the spacing of the return drills but things need to break just right since runner has limited speed; the hotter the pace the better for him.

Clearly Now

Tough beat in the G2 last year when whipped by the repeater; if you figure he needed last then you can build a case for a move forward; note he won the Swale last year in the second off the layoff win; would have liked to have seen a local drill.

Broadway Empire

In good hands, this trainer has been running away with the title at Turf Paradise and he's winning in bunches at Anita too; he only beat 3 horses in last and the place horse is not great shakes; that runner won just 2 allowance races last year; brother hands off the reins to Gary as racer gets the acid test.

Sahara Sky

Considering he had to ship 3,000 miles, the Carter was not all that bad; he's a distance specialist, this rider was up for the last two victories and note he was nearly 4 clear in last; the 3/8 place horse cashed next out in a Grade 2 with a 101 Beyer; runner earned the career best Beyer last year after exiting the Carter; contention goes long.

Quiet Force

Reformed claimer has some things to prove; bothered early in last and he may not have cared for the synthetic; like fact he got a feel of the surface last Sunday but this race comes up dicey; respect barn but this runner has his work cut out.

Laugh Track

Maybe he hated the rail in the last pair; toss the 2013 closer as he bobbled and lost best chance; Mena has won with this runner, and key off the 16-1 BC Sprint; look for rider to take a little hold, try to save ground, attempt to find a seam, and move to reel them all in.

River Bear

Illinois-bred is swimming with the sharks here; he comes to the race on the top of his game but you can't be thrilled with the local slate; AARP fans have a vehicle with this 9-year-old senior citizen but it could be asking too much of him at this stage of his career.

Falling Sky

Proven fresh and at this trip, he was dueled into submission last time and he got a boost when the winner repeated in the Grade 2 New Orleans with a 114 Beyer; dueled into submission last time, there is speed inside and outside of him today; he extended solidly in the 2/8 win but not sure he was beating anybody; the place horse that day returned to lost in a $62.5K optional.

Central Banker

Nice effort in California 2 back but must find a way to turn the tables on that runner among others; the local win came vs. much softer and he has never won a Graded race in his career; he trained fast before the Carter but it didn't transfer; backers can hang their hat on the best of 84 spin here last Saturday.

Delaunay

Perfect here, in the exacta in 9 off 11 at this trip and he has won off the vacation numerous times; love fact he has natural speed but doesn't absolutely need the lead to win; show horse in last took a G3 at Oaklawn next out with a 99 Beyer; Amoss can spot them with anybody as runner tries to defend his title.

Shakin It Up

Drawn right, colt showed talent from Day One and he is repeatedly proven at this level; he has shown a penchant for firing when fresh, he brings the typical sizzling Baffert drills to the table and like fact he drilled this far last month; can't fault those that give him another shot at glory after the flop as chalk. - Brian Mulligan

Race 10

Wise Dan

Two-time reigning Horse of the Year is going after his second victory in this event, and after a sharp winning performance after a layoff in the Makers 46 Mile, he seems very likely to come right back with an even sharper try; until he starts showing signs of slowing down, it's just tough to go against him.

Bright Thought

Four of his six starts over turf have been very nice performances, and if anyone in this race is going to lead at every point of call, this seems like the one to do it; perhaps he's worth including in multiple race wagers as back up in the event that Wise Dan isn't at his best.

Guys Reward

Tough veteran has shown the ability to pack a strong stretch punch on his best day and he's had a good deal of success while winning five of 11 starts over this turf course; on the negative side, the early pace in here might not heat up very much, and one of the horses he'll have to pass is Wise Dan.

Admiral Kitten

Prior to his latest outing, he did little wrong through his first nine starts over turf, even if he might have recorded a few too many runner-up finishes, and not going to be too hard on him for the sub par performance in his latest outing going 1 1/2m; going to look for this Ramsey/Maker/Leparoux production to bounce right back with a sharp start.

Kaigun

He's been as strong as ever in his two starts this year, and he made a pretty nice run at Wise Dan in his latest outing, and that was his first start back from a layoff as well; tough to give him the nod over Wise Dan, but he certainly commands his share of respect.

Moro Tap

Simply feel that his best race isn't strong enough to get him into the mix against these, and not only have his starts in graded stakes races before today been below par, but this is the toughest assignment of his career.

Boisterous

It looked like he might have lost his best step at the end of 2013 and in his first start of 2014, but he clearly put together one of his sharper performances in his most recent outing, and that was only his second start for the Pletcher barn; he's one of two in here with more than $1 million in career earnings.

Finnegans Wake

He's shown a knack for finding a way to sneak his way into the exotics mix, and he's been known to do it at a good price; can't say that the top spot is within his reach, but maybe he can come along late and secure a minor placing.

Skyring

He's another one of these horses that has good days but lacks consistency and feel that it's fair to wonder if he can come right back with the same level of performance that he showed up with at Fair Grounds in his latest start; even if he does bring his 'A' game to the table, a minor award is probably the ceiling.

Seek Again

He has to be considered an interesting option in here based on what he showed us in his first start in America while making his final start as a 3-year-old; obviously this is a difficult spot for his first start as a 4-year-old, but not going to be surprised if this Juddmonte-homebred has a strong season. - Brian Pochman

Race 11

Vicar's in Trouble

He is quick from the gate; 2 of his 3 wins when racing 1st at the 1st call; from the rail draw can't help but think he will be sent hard hoping to outbreak Wildcat Red, California Chrome and Uncle Sigh then hopes to hold off the closers; last rail-draw winner Ferdinand in 1986 was a deep closer; the speed part of the Maker-trained trio; know him early but unsure about late.

Harry's Holiday

Claimed from his debut now starts in the Kentucky Derby; he is 1-of-3 trainer by Maker but have not seen a dirt start since January and exits a career-low Beyer speed figure; figures to sit right behind stablemate Vicars In Trouble from the gate saving ground then hopes to find a way through; off latest would be a shocker.

Uncle Sigh

Broke slowly in the Wood Memorial after a tough beat in the Gotham; clearly the added distance here is a big issue and he must break sharply for best hope; adding blinkers for the Kentucky Derby so projects as a pace presence for part.

Danza

21-point Beyer improvement for his Arkansas Derby score in his 1st start beyond 7F where he sat a ground-saving trip behind a hot pace then exploded home like he was an even-money shot not nearly 41-1 odds; according to DRF clockers at CD he has made a great appearance at CD.

California Chrome

Been a new runner since blinkers went on (5-for-7) and his Santa Anita Derby was incredible as he broke poorly, made contact with Candy Boy, sat just off the speed then pulled away from Hoppertunity and Candy Boy with ease; beat the gate on the lead with a field-best Beyer in the San Felipe and exits a best-last-race Beyer; according to DRF clockers he did not make a great appearance in a Wednesday-CD gallop.

Samraat

Snapped the 5-race perfect streak in the Wood' suggesting distance limitations as his win margins decreased as the distances increased; figures to sit just off the gate speed then hopes to come up bigger in deep stretch then when roared past by Wicked Strong.

We Miss Artie

His Fountain of Youth makes him a tough call here with his best Beyer on turf and graded stakes win on synthetic; was disappointing in his CD-morning drills for this; Johnny V has won all 3 races aboard this guy but sides with Intense Holiday for this.

General a Rod

He hasn't won past 1 Mile yet and his Florida Derby where he lacked the finishing kick does not bode well for 1 Mile and a quarter; expect him to race midpack as his 2 uncoupled barnmates are likely to break better from the inside; reportedly was not training as well in Kentucky as he was in Florida earlier this year.

Vinceremos

His Tampa Bay Derby runner-up finish was a solid effort but would need to up his game to a brand-new level to make any dent here; can excuse latest racing on a synthetic surface; was outworked by uncoupled barnmate Danza on CD dirt.

Wildcat Red

Was game to the wire in his Florida race; won over a speed-favoring track in his Fountain of Youth; projects to be the speed of the speed and the one to catch; the memory of him tiring and drifting out off the rail in the Florida Derby vs. Constitution suggests 1 Mile and a quarter won't be his best distance.

Hoppertunity

The prospects for a wet track are not very good and he would be a major player off the Rebel-off track score if track came up soggy; according to DRF clockers he has handled the CD oval very well; long drought since a 'Derby winner did not race at least once as a 2-year-old; the image of California Chrome running him off his feet in the SA Derby suggests he might be ranked a notch below the top contenders on fast footing.

Dance With Fate

Finished 2nd and 8th in 2 other dirt starts both G1 losses; his big-closing kick in the Blue Grass was eye-catching and with a hot pace projected a deep closer like him could do some damage; scored 1st-time Nakatani who is 0-for-16 in the Kentucky Derby; according to DRF clockers he has been full of himself this week at CD.

Chitu

Won a key race defeating the show and 4th-place finishers from last; they Beyered 87-85 in next-out OP-100K stakes and SRP-alw. wins; trainer Baffert has stated he's a speed horse and with his other horse Hoppertunity breaking midpack this one is meant to be forwardly placed; worked in company in CD and getting the classic distance after pressing the pace is a major issue.

Medal Count

Is another who did not do much on that speed-favoring GP strip in the Fountain of Youth then went on to win a G3 and earned a spot here by chasing Dance With Fate on synthetic; style suggests the added distance will help the cause but has a lot to prove on dirt.

Tapiture

Reunites with the win rider; Grade 2-stakes winner over the track disappointed in his last 2-OP preps; the latest start was his lowest Beyer of the year; worked well on a wet main track unfortunately for him the forecast is for a fast track.

Intense Holiday

Had the misfortune of closing into a race with a lone-speed runner but that scenaio is unlikely to occur for this; 1st-time Johnny V is always a good-win angle; Risen Star-win rider Smith goes to Hoppertunity; his closing kick would seem to fit today's classic distance while he has been working sharply on the CD oval and has been full of himself all week; the pick.

Commanding Curve

November-CD graduate with just 1 win he reunites with the win rider for this; zero gate speed in his 2014 losses; clearly his best 89 Beyer would not come close to getting it done vs. these; his latest-CD workout was less than inspiring.

Candy Boy

Bumped with California Chrome out of the gate in the SA Derby then was within contention at the quarter pole but was run off his feet by the likely-Derby betting choice; he has worked extremely well at CD for this seeking the rematch; perhaps a cleaner start will help him turn the tables; others appeal more.

Ride On Curlin

0-for-3 over the track is the concern as he needed Ellis and a wet track to post wins; he reunites with rider Borel who's won 3 Kentucky Derbys and is 2-for-5 piloting this one; was no match for the surprising Danza in latest; have him ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Wicked Strong

The way he rallied in the middle of the track for his Wood Memorial victory would think breaking widest may not hurt his chances any; he's been very good in New York but in races elsewhere he was a non factor; the 104 Beyer came out of nowhere but makes him a major player if can repeat that effort; the 2-back winner made it 3-for-3 in the Florida Derby (99 Beyer).

Pablo Del Monte

Would add to an already sizzling pace if in; speedster has clearly been best on KEE synthetic and has plenty to prove off his 2 GP-dirt losses and not winning past 6.5F; always been quick in the mornings but latest prompts him try this; know him early but unsure about late. - Art Gropper

Race 12

Sandbar

After winning via disqualification in his debut race here last June, he aimed too high in the G3 Bashford Manor and lost all chance at the break; since then, he has progressed into a steady performer at this level and was given a well-deserved rest after winning a demanding pace battle; playable if inside path has proven the place to be.

Platitude

Middle moved to command in the latest run at Oaklawn only to falter late; that was his only route attempt and he should be much more comfortable with the return to this common distance; recent half-mile breeze, however, left much to be desired; mixed signals for this grey.

Slan Abhaile

Stayed on pace at Gulfstream, his only start since 2013; he turned in a solid placing in his only start over this course when part of an above average group; should move forward today with that important tightener under his belt and will offer a much better price on the board.

Vanity Feature

Scheduled to race without blinkers for the first time after tiring in the final yards of his last assignment; did not have an easy trip in his sole appearance over the course and has run into encore winners in 2 of his 5 career races; the trainer has compiled an excellent strike rate on the year.

Carving

This is his first claiming race since graduating long ago; last sprint try was an excellent effort when unfortunately jammed up between rivals for a good part of the running; perfect intervals to the work tab suggests he has been pointed for this event for quite some time and he looks like a logical candidate.

Positively

On the shelf since failing to fire in his last run; the colt has the most experience over this course, a big plus, and has appeared in more than one graded stakes in his career; reverts to winning pilot Bridgmohan but the question centers on whether six furlongs is the proper distance considering the layoff.

Bull Dozer

Veteran runner raced evenly last time out at Keeneland but the return to this oval should help his cause immensely; 15-time winner can handle all sorts of track conditions and has legitimate money chances here regardless of how the pace unfolds; consider.

Shut Up Chris

Defeated n2l runners with authority in his 2013 finale but he may have problems establishing a clear, early lead against this line-up; faces several older and far more experienced heavy-hitters and cannot be given the top vote regardless of soil condition.

Captain Genius

Likes to stalk and this outside slot can suit his style just fine; can obtain ideal early attack position especially since a very rapid early pace does not seem in the cards; capable of turning the tables on Platitude who defeated him March and receives a significant weight shift in his favor today from that rival. - Jim Kachulis

Race 13

Party Time

Valid excuse in the debut when sprinting, colt has the speed to take advantage of the inside; Grade 1 winning dam banked nearly $700K; several successful routers in the family, 2 banked 6 figures including G3 winner and near $300K earner Happy Hunting; champagne corks could be popping after the nightcap.

C J's Awesome

Considering he hooked the clear winner, the last race was not all that bad; G2 placed 2 for 7 dam earned about $175K; this is her first to race; would expect him to be put into the race early and try to steal it.

Saa Mi

It's been all about 4s so far; he lost all chance when forced to steady in last; 2/22 place horse graduated next out in a MSW with an 84 Beyer; there is a proven router in the tree and both siblings banked 6 figures; look for him late if at all.

Appealing Alex

Lack of speed is a legit concern; G1 winning 3 for 12 dam banked nearly $500K; lone half bro lost 9 times; homebred may need softer to shine.

Awesome Sky

Far from disgraced when hooking Tapiture on the surface; if that runner rolls in the Derby, this colt's stock is beefed up; place horse in last graduated next out by over 7 with an 89 Beyer and the winner of last repeated in an N2L allowance at OP; he has some work to do to match top kin and full sister Sky Dreamer, who won routing and earned over $175K; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls apart.

Silent Ruler

Connections thought enough of him to try the stakes; the siblings that won were sprint only; he did run well off the vacation last year; would have like to have seen some local drills.

For Goodness Sake

Educated in the grass but debut but hard adore runners at this level after they have missed for a tag; he did get a boost when the winner of last repeated in an N1X, then was crushed in a stakes; dam's lone win was a route; the sibling to win took 4 routes in the minor leagues; runner could be more focused with the blinks today.

Rocket Time

Tiz Wonderful about 23% with debuters in a 117-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, won a Grade 2 as a juvenile, banked over $250K taking 3 of 5; 1 for 2 dam did win on grass; the lone 1 for 16 sibling Rontos' Dream cashed on grass; Stall can get them set to win long at first asking.

Canadian Winner

The stamina issue must be addressed; he has lost ground in the lane in every outing; he still has a shot to mature with grace as kin Biofuel took several stakes, earned nearly $800K; Court got a chance to figure him out; needs a turn around.

H Town Brown

Gelding has been around the wire several times; 2/15 place horse graduated next out at this level with an 85 Beyer; there is route success in the tree and top kin D' Funnybone took several G2s; expect much better result.

Match Up

Troubled in 2 of 3 and he got to drifting the last time in town; G3 winning dam took 5 of 16, earned $375K; lone half sis to race Wake Up took one sprint; colt could be compromised by the slot today. - Brian Mulligan