Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for May 17, 2014

Race 1

Montezuma Express

Drops below the purchase price for the first time and may have only one pace rival in this short field, an important advantage; earned his best lifetime Beyer over this course last season but will have to surpass that level in order to defeat this group.

Total Immersion

Beaten favorite established a fine record in Chicago last year but seemed to tail off in his campaign at Oaklawn; likes to rally from close range and the latest half-mile breeze should help him towards that goal; must face runners who have multiple local victories, however; mixed signals.

Lookn Mighty Fast

This is the right value play and the selection despite his loss to Grey by You 3 weeks ago; with the longer distance today, and the pace nature of this field, he should be able to grab command before that key foe hits full stride; can turn the tables if patiently ridden.

Twin Engine

Basically a route runner of some quality, but his blank exacta record at this oval is hard to overlook; entered for a career low price tag today may not matter as there could be insufficient pace to set up his late charge; cannot vote for the top spot as a result.

Grey by You

Steady rallier was set up by strong early fractions in the last score; has certainly improved since twice seeing the heels of Montezuma Express in 2013; the main focus point: he has yet to win at this tricky distance; the grey remains a true contender if avoiding an extra-wide rallying path. - Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Mr. Swagger

36 last-out KEE winner through May 11 at the current CD meet and he is the only runner leaving a Lexington start to race here; his career debut on dirt was rock solid then showed nothing 3-back when stretched out; exits a race where he showed better tactical speed and clearly the KEE all-weather oval has legged up many winners here; latest stalking style fits at this distance; the pick

Sequoia's Mark

0-for-12 sprint-to-route trainer since 2013; gets 1st Lasix and hopes to improve upon a flat 1st off the claim loss where the Beyer regressed 2nd-time out which is almost always an improvement effort; 282 Tomlinson Distance number is the lowest in the field.

Barry Shortpants

It's going on 1 year and a half since his field-best Beyer speed figure at today's distance on FG dirt but exits his best effort since then when earning the exacta closing well at 1 Mile earning a best-last-race speed figures which makes today's distance very inviting; the one knock is that he's already lost for a lower-price tag than 20K before but seems the one to beat.

Clever Fox

Adds 3F onto the debut distance; bred both sides for distance and the way he showed no speed from the gate 1st time out any added yardage is a plus; the workouts for this are not very inspiring and the trainer is 0-for-10 first time out with newly-acquired runners; both of the barn's CD winners were runners who had raced within 30 days while he hasn't been out since the summer.

Hidden Brook

Adds blinkers an 0-for-8 move from the trainer since 2013; today marks his longest-distance test ever while has to avenge latest loss to Barry Shortpants hoping a more alert gate break will help turn the tables; wish the workout for this dazzled more.

Tall Boy

In a field lacking pace he is the likely leader exiting 4 straight sprints; drops to lowest spot for the 3rd straight spot; obviously his last-place finish in his only race at today's distance is not easy to get past; the 3-back show finisher Beyered 80 in a next-out CD-MSW win. - Art Gropper

Race 3

Velvet Zip

Draws inside for the drop to this level for a barn that boasts excellent numbers second off the break; filly chased a hot clip before backing out of it in her local debut and should be able to work out a trip behind the speed here as well; maybe the class relief helps do the trick; consider.

Infliction

Tenth time proved the charm for this 4 year old and now she'll tackle winners; like the tracking gear she got back to showing last time and she does own back local numbers that fit well in this spot; sometimes this type keeps going once they figure things out so maybe she's worth a look.

Run Away's Sis

Speedy invader couldn't hold on after being pushed through quick splits between pace rivals in her Oaklawn Park finale; gray looks to have only the gal drawn to her immediate outside to outrun to the top today and look what she did 2 back with things her own way; one to catch and beat.

My Christini

She's only run twice and she showed marked improvement when dropped in for a tag in her first start of the year; filly gets speed to her inside here and that could put her in a nice stalking spot as she returns from the brief freshening; Leparoux gets aboard for her first with winners; looms a tough foe.

Shy Rosa

She's another who broke through when dropped in for a tag last time and now she'll move on to try winners with a new pilot aloft; mare doesn't have much speed but she certainly offered a nice late kick in that Keeneland maiden breaker; concern is the footing as she's never set foot on dirt in the afternoon.

Lil Honey Badger

Outside drawn filly returns from time off after showing little against allowance runners at Gulfstream; she didn't have a lot to offer in her local try last fall, either, buy she worked well here the other day and maybe that's a sign she's set to fire off the freshening. - Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Star Passage

She earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure in her latest start and that figure represents the best last race figure in this field; runner up from latest won next out here on 5/10 going 1 1/16m vs. 50k claimers with an 82 Beyer; this looks like a good spot to get her back over turf.

Rosee Is Cozee

She hasn't recorded a win from five starts over turf but her turf form hasn't been bad and she enters this race off of one of her sharper starts; her ability to adapt to any early pace scenario helps give her added appeal.

Faerie Queene

Stakes placed filly sports solid overall turf form and she can prove to be a player in this spot even if this race has to be taken off the turf; Lanerie has been riding in top form since the beginning of this meeting and he looks live in here.

Zadina

She's been at her best racing over this turf course and perhaps she just needed her most recent start after taking some time off; going to look in another direction for the top spot, but a minor award doesn't appear to be out of reach.

Maid On a Mission

Like the idea of her giving turf another try, and in a race that seems to be lacking in early speed, she might find herself setting a comfortable early tempo; that said, it will take the sharpest performance of her career if she's to see her number posted on top after this one is run.

I'm Your Luv

She sports a career best Beyer Speed Figure of 86, but that level of performance hasn't been the norm for her, and she's going to need to really step it up over what she's done in her two starts this year in order to contend.

Donna's Fly Girl

She finished behind one of today's key rivals in Double Ante in her most recent start and this late running type might be up against it again trying to rally into what projects to be a slow early pace; going to limit her chances to a spot underneath in the gimmicks.

Ode to a Skylark

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters and dam won 5 of 9 turf starts for 108k; this doesn't look like a bad spot to find out what she can do over turf and Hernandez has won with 4 of 10 mounts for this barn in 2014.

Allegheny Angel

Three of her five starts over turf have been sharp performances and like the idea of her dropping out of the graded stakes ranks for her first start as a 4-year-old; if her recent workouts are any indication, then she's ready to return to action running.

Samiam

She's flashed a little bit of ability at times through her first five starts and the third-place finisher from her latest race returned to win next out at Lrl on 12/4 going 1m over turf vs. N1X alw. rivals with a 76 Beyer; interesting to see Leparoux aboard for this.

Wilhelmina

Have to acknowledge the improved performance she showed up with in her latest outing and that was her first start for these connections after being claimed for 20k two starts back; however, she is moving to turf and Majestic Warrior has been a poor influence as a turf sire.

Double Ante

This will be her first start over the Churchill Downs turf course but she looks like she fits right in with this group of 62k OPC's, and she shows up for a barn that does strong work with turf starters; the outside post isn't ideal, but she has to be rated a top contender regardless.

Gigglin' Gal

It looks like there's enough dirt form in here to make this a pretty tough spot for her to land in if this race has to be moved to the main track; her recent workouts look good, but this late running type might have a tough time trying to rally herself into the mix against these.

Branding

It looks like Proctor and Bridgmohan will be live in here whether this race is run over turf or dirt, and this filly is three-for-three in quality starts over dirt; runner up from latest won next out at GG on 3/16 going 1m vs. 62k OPC's with a 92 Beyer. - Brian Pochman

Race 6

Silver Antelope

Out of his league in March when facing very tough money allowance foes, he is properly positioned today; ran a fine race in this classification 2 back when compromised by a troubled start; most recent workout is superior but he must try to break in stride here.

Liberal Spin

Broke his maiden over this course but in a route affair; last time in he ran in this n2l condition, he turned in a strong rally to just miss; goes back to original pilot Lanerie who will have to get this colt into the race sooner than normal; conflicting signals.

Smoking Romance

Legitimate excuse when losing to Smartified last month at Keeneland; graduated in gritty fashion in his debut at Turfway; his sire was a G1 sprinter who banked 759K while the dam never raced; among the winning siblings is 164K earner Yankee Union.

Dehaven

Never fired when trying the Oaklawn surface a month ago; latest half-mile breeze does show some improvement but he lacks early speed and there does not appear to be a strong pace in the cards in this event; switches to Rocco who has done well with a limited number of mounts for these connections.

Gun Roar

Graduated over the course in his maiden voyage and then aimed too high (and was compromised by the rail) when facing G3 company; has better prompting speed than most of the field and that can give him a tactical advantage in this spot; worth serious follow-up if the price is right.

Smartified

Despite a prolonged bumping match in the last run, he was a clear-cut second; draws right outside one of the likely pacesetters today and, since this is his first attempt at the n2l level, he is a very comfortable fit; obvious contender but he will go to post at the shortest odds of his career this afternoon.

Johnmack Daddy

Overcame trouble to break maiden 2 back and then faced much tougher rivals earlier this month; should give a much better account of himself here and will also find himself much closer to the early lead than normal; not out of the question in this puzzling event. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Deep Thought

Mr. Greeley has won with about 9% of his first-time turfers in a 522-horse sample; sire won third start, took multiple Grade 3s, earned about $475K in 16 starts, never turfed; dam's lone win came routing in the debut on grass; would be careful here.

Bitty Kitty

Been around the wire, and was getting to the winner in last; another slice might be in the cards; should be rolling late if at all.

Good Shepherd

Pulpit about 12% with debuters in a 636-runner study, about 10% with first-time turf runners in a 454-runner sample; sire won debut by over 7, won 3 of next 4 including the Fountain of Youth and Blue Grass, never turfed; 2 for 10 dam was dirt route only; blowout Wednesday should have her on her toes.

Treaty Oak

Keen to run in last, maybe she just needed the race; improved energy on the 12th a positive sign; contention goes long.

Nice Number

Pioneerof the Nile 7 for 45 with debuters, 6 for 20 with first-time turfers; sire won twice at 2, took multiple Grade 1s; dam was 0 for 6; barn continues to fire on all cylinders.

Late Night Artist

Over 3 clear for a tag to kick it off, pushed legit splits in last; dam was unraced; look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Kathreenas Moon

Malibu Moon about 9% with first-time turf runners in a 444-runner sample; sire graduated in second start at 2 at 5 furlongs on dirt for only win in 2-race career; dam's lone win was a dirt sprint; she trained fast for this and is in good hands.

Cash in My Pocket

Off poorly in the debut but the race over the course can't hurt; stakes winning 8 for 29 dam banked over $350K, won thrice on grass; another threat in a real scramble.

Goldies Giant

Giant's Causeway about 11% with firsters in an 683-horse sample, about 9% with first-time turfers in a 572-runner sample; sire won juvenile debut by 7 and took a Group 1 at 2; dam's lone win was a dirt route; 5 of 6 siblings won including stakes winner, turn winner and over $900K earner Golden Yank; lean toward watching one.

Trawee

Dunkirk 2 for 12 with first-time turfers; sire didn't go at 2, was G1 placed, banked nearly $400K, never turfed; dam was unraced; both siblings won including triple grass winner and $230K earner Magic Mesa; 4th and 7th finishers in last won at this level next out; will be getting involved late if at all.

Smart Ashley

She has been knocking on the door, is due to push it down; 5th finisher in last took a maiden $50K claimer and the winner repeated in an N1X last Saturday here; looking at a stalk and pounce journey; another player.

Discoteca

Off slowly, could be compromised by the post here; stakes placed 2 for 5 dam earned over $70K, both wins came on grass; 6 of 7 siblings won; a couple won on grass; top kin Strong Contender took multiple G2s; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

Sylvan Light

Nice effort in last and the shorter trip could help; she was already handled easily for a tag; be careful here.

More Tales

More Smoke 2 for 31 with debuters, 0 for 3 with first-time turfers; sire won debut at 2, took a Grade 3, banked over $250K, never turfed; dam 0 for 4; lone half sis to race took 3 dirt sprints; could need a race or two.

Sedona Gal

Invader may like it here; dam out of the money 4 times; several multiple race winners in the family; one was a double winner on grass; top kin Mr. Whitestone was G3 placed, banked nearly $500K; rates upset glance.

One Hot Romance

This is a tough sell after the last fiasco; wraps on for all the races; try to get a good look at her on the track. - Brian Mulligan

Race 9

Swiss Confederate

Obviously a great sign that he improved so strongly 1st off the claim and in his 1st-CD start; scored on the lead and projects to be in the early mix with Mio d'Oro and Big Legacy for this massive class test; the 2-back runner-up finisher posted a 65 Beyer speed figure in a next-out PRM-25K-maiden-claiming win.

Treasury Bill

His Grade 2 stakes win at today's distance was with a big-closing kick and the majority of 7F-CD dirt winners at the current meet rallied from far back; legged up at KEE where last-out runners have dominated the meet with 36 wins through May 11; seems set for a big try 2nd time off the bench; the 3-back winner repeated in a CD-starter allowance with a 94 Beyer on his way to 6 in a row; the pick.

Big Legacy

Projects to be an early factor here; posted a field-best Beyer speed figure in his 1st race off the claim; makes his 1st CD start noting we have only 1 last-out HAW winner at the current meet; has shown big-gate speed during career but latest huge effort was from a stalking trip; deep closers have had the most success in 2014-7F races on CD dirt

Blue Y Gold (ARG)

Hasn't raced this far since January while he will be making his 1st CD start; exits back-to-back Beyers Tops at HAW where at the current CD meet we've seen one winner; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 65 in a next-out HAW-MSW win.

Hot Hot Heat

Scored right on the lead at KEE a shocking 39-point 2nd-time out Beyer improvement; Mio d'Oro, Big Legacy and Swiss Confederate all have gate speed which likely compromises his back-to-back gate-to-wire hopes; working at CD like he will like it here; late runners have been best in CD-7F starts.

Justa Runner

Hasn't shown much since leaving the Asmussen barn; the gate speed we expected for last his 1st CD start did not materialize and catches a field loaded with other early zip; new rider is his 7th in as many races which is not a good-win angle.

Mio d'Oro

Speedster's 2-back victory on the lead at 7F was terrific but he wanted no parts of rating in last and has a lot to prove on CD dirt off his troubled-career debut here 2 summers ago; last-out KEE runners have done very well here; know him early then hopes to hang on late. - Art Gropper

Race 10

Phonybooksnrecords

She might be able to get herself involved in the running through the opening stages after breaking from the rail post, but she's going to need to take her game to another level if she's planning on staying involved in the hunt through the lane.

Honey Hues

Her most recent start can be viewed as being the sharpest performance of her career, but she did benefit from an ideal early pace scenario in that race, and today's 1 3/8m distance might be a bit more than she's looking for; leaning toward others.

White Rose

She showed the ability to pack a strong stretch punch in a number of her starts as a 3-year-old, and she didn't run poorly in her first start as a 4-year-old two back before facing boys in her latest outing; this stakes placed miss might still have her best races in front of her.

Praia

Multiple graded stakes placed miss was disappointing when finishing sixth of 10 as a favorite in her latest outing, but she's certainly capable of producing a late run that is strong enough to rally herself into the mix at this level of competition, and her career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned over this turf course.

Topic

It doesn't hurt this stakes winning miss to secure the services of the hot-riding Lanerie for this, and if she can regain the form that she displayed racing at Del Mar last summer, there isn't any reason why she can't have a say in the outcome.

Gulsary (IRE)

One of two capable mare's signed on in here for the Proctor barn and this miss carries a G3 stakes placed credential with her; a little concerned by her two most recent races with regard to her being more comfortable racing over a Southern California style turf, but going to respect her as a contender.

Always Kitten

Her lack of early speed is eligible to leave her with a lot of ground to cover late, but this multiple stakes winning filly commands a good deal of respect against these based on her recent form, and she shows up for Ramsey and Maker.

Street of Gold

This barn is hitting at a 27% clip in 2014 and it looks like they have this filly entering this race in peak form; despite finishing eighth, she wasn't beaten by all that much last time, and she finished within a length of one of today's key rivals in Always Kitten.

Stoptalkingmaria

Can't fault anything she's done since being equipped with blinkers three starts ago, and the third-place finisher from her latest race returned to win next out at Tam on 4/6 going 1m over turf vs. 32k OPC's with an 83 Beyer; the added distance is a concern, but ignore her at your own risk.

Adventure At Sea

She has some early speed to throw at these, but this is a maiden trying to tackle stakes competition, and she's never run a race that is fast enough to suggest that she can be competitive against competition of this caliber.

Honey Lake

She seems to be at her best going long on turf, but this has to be considered a tough spot for this filly to step up and take on stakes competition; she looks like another who might be involved in the early running but who will have a tough time keeping up late.

Seanchai

Don't like to see that she's light on recent winning form, but she's clearly capable of running with these, and she's going to appreciate getting back over turf after trying the synthetic surface at Keeneland last time; stakes placed miss figures to make some noise with Leparoux at the controls. - Brian Pochman