Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for May 15, 2014

Race 2

Aniell

Sire Tale of the Cat gets over 17% 2yo debut winners, according to DRF sire stats; sire won 5 of 9 for $360K, won G2 King's Bishop, 3rd in G1 Vosburgh (twice), 2nd in G1 Whitney; dam's 1st foal; dam won 1 of 12 for $26K; some steady works for Casse (15% first out).

She's Slammed

No data on young sire Tale of Ekati; sire won 5 of 15 for $1.1 million, won his 2yo debut, won G1 Wood, G1 Cigar Mile, also G2 SW/SP; dam's only foal is Otay (1 win, $29K); dam won 7 of 34 for $94K; just a couple KEE works but Calvin sees fit to ride.

Frosty Friday

No data on young sire Eskendereya; sire won 4 of 6 for $725K, romped in G1 Wood and was to be favored in the G1 Ky. Derby but suffered career-ending injury just prior to that; unraced dam has 3 winenrs from 7 foals to race including Wild Promises (13 wins, $699K, multiple SW including a G3) and Icy Atlantic (8 wins, $993K, G2/G3 SW); $245K sales buy has been working along steadily.

Gentilly

Sire Candy Ride gets over 14% 2yo debut winners; sire was unbeaten in 6 starts, was 3-time G1 SW on turf in Argentina, won G1 Pacific Classic on dirt at DMR, G2 American on turf at HOL; dam has 1 winner from 3 foals, Chokonni (1 win, $17K); dam had 2 2nds in 8 starts for $22K; hails from a barn well known for firing first out with its babies (22%).

Milehigh Butterfly

Sire Sky Mesa gets over 16% 2yo debut winners; sire won 3 of 6 for $633K, won his 2yo debut, won G1 Hopeful, 2nd in G1 Haskell, also G2 SW/SP; unraced dam's 2 foals are winners including Kiss in the Forest (3 wins, $170K, twice SP); steady works for a trainer who can fire first out (12%).

Zip It Kim

Has something no one else in here has - experience; debut wasn't bad as she chased the pace before weakening some; can benefit from that outing and there's a very nice 4f work since (:47); certainly eligible to improve but she'd better as there are some promising runners lined up against her. - Michael Hammersly

Race 3

Gift Receipt

She was sent off as the chalk but couldn't keep up to Laser Cat in her latest at Tampa and she'll have to deal the Cat again; she appears to have the best pure speed in the field and if she breaks alertly they will have to run her down; she also earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure on this course; contender.

Happy Everafter

Another one that earned her top Beyer Speed Figure here but she didn't hang around very long in her latest at Keeneland which was won by Laser Cat; she also wants to be involved right from the start and she is probably going to have a hard time trying to run with Gift Receipt early and then try and hold off the others late; looking elsewhere.

Ms Hoochie Coochie

Easy to toss her latest on the main track and her previous three races on the lawn put her in the mix; horse that won her race at the Fairgrounds Jan. 20 won her next start there and just missed in a washed off stakes race here last Sat.; nice to see her being reuinited with Napravnik who was aboard for her win at the Fairgrounds Dec. 13; exacta possibility.

Regal Joanne

4-year-old filly has won more than a third of her starts but she closed out her sophomore campaign with a couple of very dull races; she's been freshened for this and the past five years her trainer is 1/11 with horses returning from a break between 61-180 days; sharp works showing but we're just going to watch and see how she comes back;

Laser Cat

She is obviously the one to beat with the lofty Beyer Speed Figures showing in her last two races; she easily handled Gift Receipt two back and that was a huge effort at Keeneland where she made a strong move while splitting horses in the stretch and then lost by the narrowest of margins by a horse she didn't see coming on the outside; she won the only time she ran over this course and if she retains her sharp current form they aren't going to beat her; the pick.

Turn by Turn

Lightly-raced 4-year-old won the only time she tried turf and the horse she beat hasn't finished worse than second since and recently won a stakes at Evangeline with an 86 Beyer; this gal is looking to regroup after going unplaced in her last three; her latest loss came in a key race at Oaklawn in Jan. and the winner came back to win a stakes race on the main track there with a 91 Beyer; nice set of works leading up to her return but it is hard to love her off what she has shown us lately. - Randy Goulding

Race 5

Run Hide My Girl

If you can excuse her latest performance after a layoff, she has the look of a strong contender, and not viewing the 30k price tag as a negative when seeing that she was sent out with a 25k tag attached for her career debut; won't be at all surprised if she bounces right back with a sharper start.

The Conception

She's developed some consistency to her game and like the idea of dropping her in with 30-25k N2L claimers for her first start over the Churchill Downs turf course; not sure what to make of taking blinkers off, but viewing her as a contender regardless.

Cassie's Harbor

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; she's clearly going to need to take a noticeable step forward if she's to get the better of this field in her first start against winners and her first start over turf.

Gabby's Purim

Two of her five starts over turf have been respectable performances and the runner up from her latest race returned to win next out at Tam on 3/30 going 1m 40y vs. 32-30k N2L claimers with a 59 Beyer; this really isn't a bad spot for her to take on winners for the first time.

Academic Probation

She showed a little something in a couple of her starts over turf as a 2-year-old and it wouldn't be a shock to see her improve over that form as a 3-year-old; a little concerned with regard to her readiness when looking at her light work tab, but not willing to count her out of it; runner up from latest won next out at Mnr on 3/25 going 1m vs. N2L alw. rivals with a 55 Beyer.

Bump Bump

The 67 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for her latest effort is the best last race figure in this field, and like to see what she did in her one attempt routing over turf in her first start as a 3-year-old; a high win percentage barn helps add further appeal.

Kiss Me Perfect

Half-sister to multiple stakes placed Kiss in the Forest (3-18, 170k, including 1 of 13 turf starts for 88k) is an interesting option to consider in this spot when seeing that this will be her first turf start since a solid third-place finish at second asking; a couple of her workouts since her last start look sharp.

Perfect Setting

Sire is 0-for-18 with his turf starters, including 0-for-10 with starters trying turf for the first time, and multiple stakes winning dam won 10 of 50 starts for 495k, including 9 of 43 starts for 450k; this filly is a 1/2 to I Am Miss Brown (3-16, 94k, including 1-for-1 over turf for 18k). - Brian Pochman

Race 6

Hi Torree

Hood comes off for the turn back after fading in his return to this venue; gelding hasn't done much in any of his 3 local spins and he's certainly had his share of chances; it's been a while since he beat that cheap Turfway field home on the track and his recent numbers aren't very encouraging; have to pass on him.

Kodiak Syd

Wasn't beaten all that much for twice this price when tracking a slow clip from a wide spot at Keeneland and now he'll make his local return; gelding earned a nice number when runner up the last time he stepped on a dirt surface and the pilot aboard that day returns in this spot as well; he's another who has had plenty of chances, but he looms a threat.

Napa Valley (BRZ)

Four year old has only run a handful of times and maybe he's set for a move forward in his third start back from the break; he's yet to try dirt, so the new footing is a concern, but he wasn't really beaten all that much in either of his recent synthetic spins against better; consider.

Stone Cold Wild

He's a 15 time loser whose return to dirt was one of his poorest efforts yet; gelding has yet to hit the board locally and nothing he's run of late would put him in the picture here; looms another long price.

Dynaskra

Showed solid early foot first time at the level while returning from the freshening for his first start off this sharp outfit's claim; he draws a better post for the turn back and should be tighter for a barn that hits at a big clip with runners second off the break; Leparoux sides elsewhere, but this guy's lick should have him in the thick of this one from the outset; contender.

Tiz Tebow Time

Ran on to get a minor share while routing in his second start of the year and now he'll try a one turn mile; he hasn't shown much early foot and there's not a lot of that commodity in here so he'll need to be used a little harder from the bell and the guy who beat him for the place last time does return again in this spot; prefer to limit his use to underneath in exotics today.

Conserve

He's hit the board in more than half of his 23 losses and he was running on ok from a wide spot after drawing the fence in his first spin over the local main track; gelding has little early foot so he'll likely again find himself with a lot to do in this one turn heat; minor award figures to be his ceiling.

Lucky Pursuit

Five year old makes just his fourth career start while turning back to try one turn for the first time since his sloppy debut run; gelding was runner up in each of his 2 well spaced route starts since taken by this outfit and his beaten chalk effort here 3 weeks ago earned him the best number any of these has run of late; they'll have him to beat.

New Found King

Outside drawn gelding has offered some late kick in each of his 2 starts since returning from the break and removing the hood; he's another with little early foot and his dirt efforts do leave something to be desired; looks like he'll need some pace help up top to pose a serious threat today. - Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Dynamical

Wraps added last time and he probably lost best chance when he stumbled; cozy slot, proven locally and he has the 2 races to draw from now; gelding seems best when allowed to contend early; slight drop can't hurt; not impossible task.

Perfectly At Home

Nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 11 of 25; protected in last and runner just never got untracked; 3/14 place horse took a $25K optional next out with an 86 Beyer; agile enough to overcome the trouble two back; Borel got a chance to figure him out last time; the hotter the pace the better for this runner.

D' Wildcard

Senior citizen has some back class; toss his races away from this venue and the form brightens; Fort Boonesborough exited the 2013 closer to beat $22K optional foes next out, was 2nd last Saturday in a $16K claimer at Monmouth; rates upset glance.

Harborplace

Proven fresh, 2 of his 8 wins have been here; 6th finisher in last took a $20K optional at Lone Star; the winner of last repeated in a $30K optional with an 83 Beyer; pro handles any kind of going; could slip in for a section.

Channeling

Wonder if the 2014 opener just zapped him?; he had to take the time off and the races since have been dull; gelding has been beaten by a number of rivals today; he has trained well since the last effort; runner pressed the soft pace in the last win; would be careful here.

Sky Alert

Can't be thrilled about the beats vs. softer foes; he has had a tough time at this distance but was inching toward the winner last time; only in the money once since the 2012 closer and that came on grass; a slice may be the ceiling.

It Happened Again

If you figure he just needed the last, you can build a case for a more forward; he has run well fresh, and note he won in the second off the layoff run in the 2013 closer against much tougher; could see him sitting 6 or 7 off a legit pace primed to pounce; major threat.

Jazil Bell

He has been pretty solid since he graduated; fit enough to drill a couple of times since, runner has much more speed than he flashed in last; barn has been winning with everything that is not nailed down and note this rider is 12 for 28 for this outfit in the last year or so.

Street Serenade

Wide in the last 3, racer could have some stamina issues; she has lost ground in the lane in every race since last September; last race came back live as the 2nd and 3rd finishers took $40K optionals and the 5th finisher beat $10K starter foes; under purchase price; must pick it up.

Adulare

He may not have adored the slop in last; been awhile since the last score; it came here in November of 2012 in a $40K claimer; look for rider to be aggressive here; note this runner was on the lead for this pilot last November; major threat for all the money. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Contributor

Is 2-for-2 in firm-turf Miles; obviously would prefer this event to remain on the grass especially with a field-low Tomlinson-Wet number for dirt; in 2014 closers ruled on CD turf at 1 Mile; in 8 races not one winner scored gate-to-wire and and 5 of the Mile winners raced 4th or worst at the 1st call.

Signature Seven

2-for-2 on OP fast dirt but not much form anywhere else; If this race is moved to wet dirt he would be a tough call off the career-low Beyer posted in his only other sloppy-race attempt; his lone turf start was over a less-than-firm course which was a fade at longer.

Ghost to Ghost

Last-out TP runners have won just twice at the current-CD meet; 5 of Maker's 8 CD wins were with runners following layoffs of 30 days or more; the trainer has uncoupled Aunt Ruby's Kitten going here with the barn's best rider on that one; exits a field-best Beyer speed figure performance when crushing maidens on an all-weather oval; 0-for-6 turf mark but fired his best grass Beyer on a less-than-firm CD turf; projected rain for Louisville might help this one's 1st-ever dirt start with a 433 Wet Tomlinson number to top the field.

Rope a Dope

Class relief off the bench going from a stakes loss into an event where he can be claimed; a less-than-firm turf course produced his 2-back win and career-best Beyer; adds blinkers a winning move from the trainer; if this races goes to dirt his 413 Wet Tomlinson suggests he may take to the off going.

Bern' James Bern

Try to catch me; 13 winners for last-out FG runners at the current-CD meet while the barn has 4 winners at CD in 2014 with runners following 30-day or longer freshenings; speed has not held well on CD turf in 2014; he has handled fast dirt very well but the main concern is a wet-main track posting a career-low Beyer on that type of surface.

Aunt Ruby's Kitten

The runner-up and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 84-76 in next-out KEE-allowance and CD-30K-claiming wins; leaves a high-win percentage trainer for another; the new barn also has uncoupled Ghost to Ghost here but lists his top rider Leparoux on this one.

Rainbow Trip

Solid-turf record including a career-best Beyer on less-than-firm footing; 0-for-5 main-track record including a dull effort on a wet track last fall; 2 solid races off the claim but lost to Bern James Bern at today's distance 2 back and will need a pace metdown to score; the good news is that closers have done very well in 2014 CD 1-Mile turf races.

Jet Cat

Sire is 21-for-193 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-6 grass dam (10K); her 2 foals to race on turf are 0-for-4 combined; has shown zero run in 2 wet-dirt starts; front-running style does not play well on the CD green.

Dehaven

Main Track Only entry has never raced on a wet-dirt oval before but owns the 2nd best Wet Tomlinson number to Ghost to Ghost; claimed off a dull placement when outrun throughout but that effort represents a career-best Beyer when defeated by the winner who repeated in a CD-starter alw. with an 87 speed figure. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Prado's Empress

She shows a modest breeze pattern for this first run; her sire won a G2 stakes and 235K overall (offspring of Ruler's Court have tallied 2 of 56 debuts); the dam was without victory in 4 attempts; among the winning siblings is 41K earner Royal Prado.

Gracee Goo

Very sharp comeback race over the lawn at Tampa Bay last month; this marks her first attempt at the claiming angle and that is one of the most potent angles in the game; draws well and should prove an early presence at the least.

Little Stevie Girl

Came up empty in her maiden voyage at Oaklawn while a big price; her sire won 1.01 million including G1 success; the dam won 7 of 22 and 130K; among the winning siblings is 176K earner Ridgester.

Katie O.

Blinker addition did not help in her latest run but she has the most local experience of this group; should give a better account of herself today since this is her initial try for a tag and she may be on or near a softer pace; consider.

My Sweet Sister

Beginner hails from G3 type Lost Soldier who won 434K and whose progeny have won 26 out of 379 debuts; the dam won 2 of 14 attempts and 62K; among the winning siblings is 581K earner Sweet Cassiopeia.

Speedy Girl

Steady pair of half-mile breezes for this return; she flashed some brief prompting speed in her first try over the turf and should appreciate the return to the main; sired by top-notch sprinter Bennie the Bull, she should be within range today.

Nana Jean

Descendants of Roman Ruler, who won a G1 and 1.22 million, are 36 for 274 as far as winning their first try; the dam won 3 of 15 and 86K: there are no winning siblings to mention; shows an average work tab for the most part.

Savorite

Firster was sired by G1 type Officer who banked 804K and whose offspring are 56 for 419 in the first time victorious department; her sire won 2 of 14 and 119K; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Proud English

Did not seem to handle the racing surface at Keeneland; turned in some fair rallies in the previous 2 outings but she will have to turn it up significantly on the Beyer scale in order to be the mix; should be a square price.

Nspeightofvickie

Alert breaker draws wide but could work out an ideal stalking trip now if positioned right outside battling leaders (presumably Gracee Goo and Katie O.); held very well in the last performance, losing the place by inches; deserves inclusion.

Doodle's Candy

Attended the pace from the far outside in her maiden voyage before tiring; her sire was an undefeated G1 winner who captured 749K; the dam won 11 of 24 and 557K; sib to 262K earner Lemon Maid, a G3 winner; distance cutback should help. - Jim Kachulis