Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for May 11, 2014

Race 1

World Tour

Tackles a better field than he beat prior to the time off at Tampa a few months back; he's shown that he's capable of sitting within striking range of the pacesetters so as long as he breaks well from here he should be able to sit a decent spot and he did run a solid third in his lone start over the local main track; contender.

River Cruising

Rolled past the leaders in the Oaklawn slop first off the barn's claim last time and now he'll try better; gelding has breezed ok in the interim and he returns to the scene of his maiden score in this spot; he's run ok over a dry strip and maybe his last was more a reaction to the new barn than the footing he ran over; consider.

Simon Ridge

Gelding tries better after being given some time off a weak try on synthetic footing at Turfway; it's been a long while since his last score and there are no recent breezes that suggest he'll jump up with a big one in his return to a venue at which he's been off the board in 5 career tries; longshot.

African Waters

Beat cheaper in his first stateside start while trying synthetic footing and wasn't bad against a cheaper bunch last time; he's only run a handful of times so he has a right to improve but he's yet to try dirt and will have to prove he can handle the new footing.

Macho Matt

Faded after tracking the pacesetter when stepped up and stretched out in his second start back from the break; gelding's effort 2 back earned him a career best Beyer and though he hasn't run well in either of his starts here maybe they again look to send him hard to get involved in pace in this spot.

Thanks Bro

Outside drawn colt drops in price while making his first start for an outfit that does terrific work with this type; he's got some early foot but the outside draw could put him in a great tracking spot if someone else chooses to go to the lead; looks like they'll have him to beat. - Steve Grabowski

Race 2

Birdsone

Lone win was a near-last-to-1st rally on a wet track while exiting sprints he projects to be an early factor today chasing Paris Pike from the gate; new rider makes his 5th different jockey in as many races which is not a good-win angle; finished behind Clever Royal and the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 82 taking an OP-allowance next out.

Sunquero

Has only raced on the lead once and it produced an exacta finish and career-best Beyer speed figure when chasing the winner who repeated in an optional claimer with a 77 Beyer; figures to batte Paris Pike for the front; today marks his 1st time on dirt which is a concern but last-out KEE runners have fared very well at the current-CD meeting.

Cut the Net

2nd of the Maker-trained runners gets Mena ro ride who began the CD meet on a 1-for-20 and the better rider for the barn is on uncoupled Sunquero for this; just 2 starts so still has upside but a lot to prove from a Beyer standpoint with 2 light speed figures on display.

Clever Royal

Exits a best-last-race Beyer on a wet track when screaming out for more yardage and gets it here; handled Birdsone 3-back as they chased the runner-up an 82 Beyer OP alw. next-out winner; off the 45-day absence there is cause for concern racing for a 5%-fresh trainer since 2013.

Indian Pegasus

1 of 2 Asmussen-trainees uncoupled; he gets the better rider for the barn (25% Santana at CD since 2013) over Paris Pike; hoping for a wet track noting his 2-back muddy field-best Beyer speed figure racing on the lead; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 69 in a next-out FG-25K-maiden-claiming win.

Paris Pike

Major class relief going from stakes company into a race where he can be claimed; the speedy half of the Asmussen-trained uncouping with Indian Pegasus; both wins on the lead and figures as the one to catch; beat the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 65 in a next-out HOU alw. win. - Art Gropper

Race 3

He's So Fine

Can't be thrilled with the local slate or the 7 slices; he only beat one home the last time he broke from the rail; 2/16 winner took a $25K claimer next out; backers have to hope a duel develops and this runner finds a lane to rally into in time.

Mean Marine

Zero for 5 locally; he could have just been overmatched in last; runner has lost ground late in the last few races; back in 10 days; must hurry.

Praetorian Prefect

Proven locally, he has enough speed to maintain contact; 6/23 winner has won 7 times since, the last in a $3500 starter at Beulah; hung wide in last, he's out to make amends for the flop at odds-on; must proven he can go this far.

Stage Street

Just a tad short in last; note show horse in last was nearly 4 clear; colt got a boost when the winner of last repeated in a $10K starter; he ran his eyeballs out in defeat in the 2014 opener; the one to beat.

Officer Griffin

Legit excuse in the 2013 closer when he caught the off going; he probably just doesn't want any part of the synthetic either; he showed more energy in the drill on the 2nd and he has enough speed to be in the first flight to get a solid trip; expect better effort.

Gladhander

Gelding could be pitched a tad too high; he has not been close in his recent dirt sprints in the last year or so; he only beat 2, now jumps in class; why? - Brian Pochman

Race 4

Duval

Very solid comeback race at Oaklawn which featured swift early fractions; sired by an excellent sprinter, he should be able to gain favorable early position here and perhaps get the jump on others intent on the lead; playable.

Commandment

Might have been best last month at Keeneland if not for the extra-wide trip; he closed in similar fashion in his maiden voyage at this oval; would certainly appreciate a quick pace here and prove the strongest of the ralliers.

Dr. Hal

Broke slowest and then rushed into the role of pacesetter last out; seems destined to get into a bitter battle today with Duval from the opening bell; would move up his chances dramatically if that key foe scratches; otherwise, there is major concern.

Stormbee

Met softer company all year long and although he has shown some fair gate speed, it is not of the same quality of his primary opponents; would prefer to back him down the road when he stretches out in distance (regardless of surface).

Cha Mono

Two respectable efforts thus far and both involved encore winners; should find himself within range here and the rider may be able to secure ideal third-place position behind dueling leaders; very strong money chances once again.

Late Night Lu

Confirmed closer could not get into gear fast enough in the last pair; in his only local sprint attempt, he rallied strong as usual despite a setback at the beginning of that event; should be flying late this afternoon but might be overbet; conflicting signals therefore. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Span

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and multiple G1 winning dam won 8 of 23 starts for $1.4 million, including 3 of 6 turf starts for 667k; this gelding is a 1/2 to stakes winner Magic Hour (4-14, 203k, including 0-for-1 over turf).

Sportscaster

This is a barn and rider that win a lot of races together and this colt showed enough in his two turf starts to be taken seriously in this event, and his second turf start was followed by a layoff.

Afleet Moss

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and G1 winning dam won 6 of 11 starts for 383k, including 0-for-3 over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to G1 winning hurdler, Gustavian (6-27, 329k); 10k purchase has some sharp looking workouts on his card to look at.

Out of Patience

Heart of the Storm has been a below average influence as a turf sire and this colt hasn't shown enough in his first five starts to help give him the look of a contender, and that includes a start over turf in his latest outing.

Vigorish

Tough to give him a favorable push in this spot based on what he's show through his first nine starts, but he is by a top turf sire, and his dam was a multiple G1 winner while winning 8 of 11 starts for 911k, and she didn't make a turf start.

Kitten's Alibi

Sire wins with approximately 16% of his first-time starters and with approximately 15% of his turf starters, and dam was winless from five starts, including two turf starts; this colt is a full to stakes placed Sneaky Kitten (2-15, 187k over turf); one of two firsters signed on in here for the Maker barn.

Tribal Message

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and this is the first foal form a dam who won 2 of 3 starts for 57k, and she didn't make a turf start; his form has improved with the addition of blinkers and he might be looking forward to a move to turf.

Highball

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and stakes winning dam won 4 of 18 starts for 194k, including 1 of 9 turf starts for 60k; this colt is a 1/2 to stakes winner Cascadilla Falls (3-13, 140k, including 2 of 6 turf starts for 77k); 250k purchase has strong looking works and this barn can have one ready to go long over turf at first asking.

Florida Won

Birdstone has been a poor influence as a turf sire but this colt clearly took a step in the right direction at second asking while making his first start for this barn and Elliott has won with 8 of 35 (23%) mounts for this outfit in 2014.

Captain Dixie

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his first-time starters and with approximately 11% of his turf starters, and dam won once from four starts for 28k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this colt is a 1/2 to minor stakes winner Max Silverhammer (8-43, 177k, including 0-for-6 over turf).

Raku

Sire has won with 3 of 19 (16%) of his turf starters and dam was unraced; he's going to need to show up with a much improved performance in his turf dbeut in order to contend.

Mr. Chow

He's by a top turf sire and out of a dam who won 4 of 12 turf starts for 120k, and his three starts over turf have been strong enough to give him a competitive look against these; the outside post isn't ideal, but he's worthy of contender status.

Broken Diplomacy

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 13% of his turf starters, and minor stakes placed dam won 2 of 24 starts for 93k, including 1 of 15 turf starts for 66k; this colt is a full to minor stakes winner Clear the Runway (4-16, 95k, no turf starts).

Skylar Bleu

Another representative of below average turf sire Heart of the Storm signed on in here and this colt will also need to produce a much improved performance in order to contend; winner from latest won next out at Tdn on 4/27 going 1m vs. N2L alw. rivals with a 66 Beyer.

Northeast Bound

He's flashed ability in a couple of his turf starts and he's out of a dam who won seven of nine starts for 139k, including three of four turf starts for 73k; he's one of two signed on in here for the solid trainer/jockey tandem of Romans and Lanerie.

Empire Taker

There's a chance that this race will be decimated by scratches if this race has to be moved to the main track, and this can prove to be a good spot for this 19-time maiden to try to secure his first career win; it just might be his day if this race comes off the turf.

Awesome Sky

He flashed some ability in his first few starts, and even earned a G2 stakes placing, and his latest race wasn't a bad run over the synthetic surface at Keeneland, especially when considering it was after a layoff; Elliott has won with 8 of 35 (23%) mounts for this barn in 2014. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

Film Shot

Multiple graded stakes placed 5-year-old has a quality pedigree for turf and he has to be considered one of the more legitimate options to consider in this spot; it's interesting to see him making his first start away from the Mott barn and the runner up from his latest race returned to win next out at Aqu on 11/17 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 62k OPC's with a 91 Beyer.

Saturday Launch

His best effort can get him into the mix against these, but when seeing that he's winless in his last 12 starts going back through 2013, perhaps it's best to limit his chances to a spot underneath in the exotics.

Red Strike

Stakes placed veteran equaled a career best Beyer Speed Figure in his latest start, and even though that figure was earned over the synthetic surface at Keeneland, he's shown the ability to be at his best racing over turf; this barn has been live at this meeting and they've clicked at a 35% clip in 2014.

Saint of Saints

Saint Anddan has been a poor influence as a turf sire but this stakes placed 5-year-old has done some nice work over turf from four starts; if nothing else, he appears to be well meant while going sprint-to-route for his second start back from a layoff.

Believe in Kitten

Ramsey-owned gelding has a fine turf pedigree and it was nice to see him put together a sharp performance over turf in his latest outing after failing to show much the first two times he raced on grass; however, he will need to dial it up along the Beyer Speed Figure scale to get the better of the top contenders in here.

Greengrassofyoming

Have to respect the form that he's displayed lately, and as long as he can avoid falling too far out of it through the opening stages, he's eligible to rally himself into the mix against these.

Avanzare

Maybe there's something to be said for the fact that he's lost as an odds-on favorite in his last three starts, but he hasn't run a bad race to date, and his best effort can make him a legitimate threat for the top prize; a strong turf barn helps add further appeal.

Chalice

Stakes placed veteran is an interesting player in this spot after being claimed by a currently live barn for 32k from his latest outing; his overall turf form has been solid, and at the very least, he's worthy of consideration underneath in the gimmicks.

Braveman

He's G3 stakes placed on dirt, and not only has he shown a little something in a couple of his turf starts, but one of those starts was in a G3 over this turf course; however, it is a concern to see the sub par performance he showed up with after a layoff in his latest outing.

Brown Almighty

He's shown the ability to jump up with a pretty decent run over turf from time-to-time, and he's G3 stakes placed over the Keeneland turf course; like to see Lanerie hop aboard for this, and the winner from his latest race returned to win next out at CD on 4/29 going 1 1/16m vs. 40k claimers with an 81 Beyer.

Heart of Destiny

Grade 1 stakes placed mare hasn't been on top of her game in quite some time and she appears to be in a pretty tough spot while meeting up with boys; prefer to give the nod to others in this one.

The Best Glacier

There are a few horses in here who have shown the ability to run their race over dirt, but this will obviously be a favorable spot for this gelding to land in if this race has to be moved to the main track; stakes winning veteran shows up for a high win percentage outfit. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Perfect Title

Maybe he just needed the last; runner has a nice turn of late foot and he is proven at this trip; like the series of drills since the return effort and there are several in here with designs on the lead including a sprinter going long; should be rolling hard in the drive.

Ride the Lightning

Lone win last year came in the off going; toss last, wrong surface; only in the money once since the Grade 3 attempt; will be in the picture late if at all.

Bambazonki

Gelding could be a bit fragile as the races have been spaced; note he won in the second career start and in a similar spot to today when he cashed in the second off the layoff run in November; 12/15 place horse won twice since, the last in an $84K stakes; best when sent along but he doesn't need the lead to cash.

Eriugena (IRE)

The last poor effort was in the grass marathon; 2/28 winner repeated in an N1X with an 84 Beyer; last race came back okay; 6th finisher took a $20K optional next out, 10th finisher took a $25K N3L event; Maker can keep them going good once they get good; major threat.

Tiz Adonis

He can be his own worst enemy since he has limited speed; show horse in last took an N2X next out, 7th finisher took a $16K optional; hung wide in last but not thrilled with fact he was getting late in the drive; will be in the picture late if at all.

Brainwash

last race came back live; the 5th finisher took a $20K optional, 6th finisher beat $40K claimer next out, 4th finisher was third a head in a $50K claimer and the winner repeated in a $40K claimer; been awhile since he has won.

Call Me George

Goes from a 31% barn to an outfit that has one win this year; colt has been consistent, he's trained forwardly for this and should sit a nice stalk and rally trip; note show horse in last was 5 clear; major threat with the A game.

For Greater Glory

Proved he can win on dirt but it was slop aided; sometimes those races can take a toll; connections thought enough of him to try the Dwyer last year and he was not disgraced; he's run well here without winner; another valid threat.

Command Force

Look for him to show speed on the stretch out; the way he was getting to the winner 2 back bodes well for him getting the distance here; he has to win on dirt for the first time and he has to adapt on the fly; respect everything from this barn. - Brian Mulligan

Race 10

Branded Hand

This colt commands some respect for his consistent approach to the game and he might find himself sitting a comfortable ground saving trip after breaking out of post one; if Knock Em Flat proves to be not as capable racing over turf, he can be in the hunt for top honors.

World Is Watching

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and stakes winning dam won 3 of 8 starts for 210k, including 0-for-2 over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to Frankie Rules (6-27, 71k, including 2 of 8 turf starts for 30k); he's tough to ignore in his first turf start after an encouraging career debut.

Manaus

Multiple stakes placed colt has struggled to be competitive in his three most recent races and feel that it's fair to wonder if he isn't better off sprinting than routing; perhaps he'll be worth looking our for the next time around with a turn back in distance.

Chester's Park

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; this gelding is a 1/2 to Miss Holiday Inn (2-12, 42k, including 1 of 3 turf starts for 23k); he's flashed ability at times and this isn't a bad spot to find out what he can do racing over turf.

Colonel Krenz

He ran pretty well the first two times he raced over turf and he's out of a G2 stakes placed dam who won 2 of 17 starts for 95k, including 2 of 14 turf starts for 92k; his most recent workout looks sharp and blinkers are removed for this.

Clovelly

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and minor stakes winning dam won 3 of 17 starts for 123k, including 2 of 15 turf starts for 106k; have to respect what he's done in his first three starts and they did try to get him over turf at second asking.

Knock Em Flat

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won once from nine starts for 14k, including 0-for-2 over turf; the surface switch is a question, but have to respect this stakes placed colt as a contender based on his sharp recent form.

My Afleet

Like to see the improvement he showed in a winning performance in his turf debut in his latest start, but he's going to need to show more if he's to get the better of this bunch in his first attempt against winners.

Arctic Slope

Grade 1 stakes placed colt has plenty of appeal in this spot and he ran a big race going 1 1/16m over turf in his career debut as a 2-year-old at Saratoga, and that has been his only turf start until now; very interesting.

Big Island Boy

He had to be dropped in with 50-40k maiden claimers to get his first win in his latest start and it might be worth noting the presence of Lanerie aboard another in this spot; the outside post adds to the level of difficulty for him. - Brian Pochman