Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for May 10, 2014

Race 1

Bank the Eight

Proven fresh, he had the 3 tough races in a row but should appreciate the freshening; 2/13 show horse cashed next out in a $7500 claimer, then ran out of the money; not a ton of sped in here, nothing wrong with hitting the exacta in 11 of 24; look for rider to send and try to steal it.

Gallant Eagle (IRE)

Hung wide in the return, toss the turf efforts and the form brightens; if you figure he needed the last then you can build a case for a move forward; not impossible task.

Crooked as Can Be

Cuts back, but he likes this trip; he's been in some good barns and has thrived for this outfit; 3/29 winner repeated in a $17K optional with a 97 Beyer; he caught the off going in the only poor effor this year; respect.

Five Afleet

Been a long time between drinks; last win came in a $18K optional at Retama in December of 2012; proven locally, but he can be his own worst enemy since he has limited speed; look for him late if at all.

Straight Up Bill

Never simple to beat winners right back but he almost pulled it off; note show horse was nearly 5 clear in last; he may also may not have loved the rail in last; still, one for 22 is a tough number to bet into no matter how you slice it. - Brian Mulligan

Race 2

Trans Continental

Drops in to face claimers while returning from a short break to a track over which she's twice run pretty well; mare has some early foot so she should be able to find a good spot from the bell from here; her numbers do look to be a little light of what some of these are capable of running but she's certainly worth a look.

Ocean Bertie

Just missed lasting when stretched out on the drop to this level last out at Keeneland; mare should be tighter with the try behind her for a barn that does well with its runners second off the break and this gal's speed should play out well in this cozy gathering; giving her the nod to take them all the way today.

Scenario Analysis

Tries dirt for the initial time after running out of ground off the troubled start in her first crack for the barn at Keeneland last month; gray can move forward off her last, but she doesn't win too often anymore and her dirt works aren't too encouraging; Leparoux getting back aboard is a positive but prefer to limit her use to underneath in exotics here.

Blushandbashful

Fresh 6 year old boasts a couple of recent breezes over the footing to get used to the stuff and now she'll drop in for a straight tag; mare did earn a big figure while winning on dirt at Indiana Downs last summer but a minor award may prove to be her ceiling today.

Merveilleuse

Stretches out after being given some time off following her distant second place finish; she ran off 3 straight as a sophomore maybe the added ground of this heat does help her; given the barn's number off today's applicable angles, she's worth considering. - Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Hike

The breezes have shown major progression of late; her sire won a G2 stakes and 795K overall; offspring of Stroll have scored in 16 out of 76 debuts; the dam won 1 of 5 and 114K; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Spring Included

Decent effort when stretching out last October but she got away with soft fractions that day; her sire won 1.65 million including G1 success while the dam was unraced; winning siblings include 194K earner Pulsion.

Bluegrass Gin

Very tough beat at Fair Grounds in March when losing ground and when caught up in a speed duel; she has breezed steadily here since that placing and should be a major player here if not pestered from the opening bell.

Incompatible

Newcomer was sired by G2 victor Broken Vow who banked 725K and whose progeny have own 11 percent of their first attempts; the dam won 3 of 13 and 87K; among the winning siblings is 160K earner Alienation.

Miz Minnie Moon

Best effort by far was at Keeneland where she was narrowly defeated while going to post at huge odds; in both local efforts last season, she was on or near strong early fractions before fading; perhaps can improve off the lengthy freshening.

Gamblers Rose

Sole start this year was on the turf where she was compromised by an extra-wide trip; ran well each time when negotiating this course last year and that experience should help her cause this afternoon; reverts to original pilot Lanerie.

Summer Camp

This filly has shown pace-pressing ability in both tries; her sire won a G2 and 225K while the dam won 2 of 2 and 33K; among the winning siblings is 90K earner Really Mr Greely; should come out firing from opening bell but must avoid intense duel. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Katie's Eyes

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and dam won once from six starts for 21k, and she didn't make a turf start; multiple graded stakes placed miss finds a realistic spot for her first turf test.

Share the Sugar

Not only does she boast the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, but she had a terrible trip when earning that figure; she has every bit the look of a top contender while being reunited with Leparoux for this.

Wicked Temper

Two of her three turf starts have been respectable performances, but it does look like she's going to need to dial up a career best run to hit the finish first in this one; it might be worth noting the presence of Lanerie aboard another in here.

Stellaris

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won once from 17 starts for 55k, including 0-for-2 over turf; turf is a question but like what she's shown in her first two starts routing.

Annulment

She ran well in her final two starts as a 2-year-old and she's going to appreciate the drop in class after a couple of G3 attempts to begin 2014; not going to be surprised if she gives a good account of herself in this spot.

Baroness Rose

Lightly raced 3-year-old has the look of an improving filly and she's out of a multiple graded stakes placed dam who won 4 of 10 turf starts for 187k; runner up from latest won next out here on 5/2 going 1 1/16m over turf in a 171k stakes with an 84 Beyer.

Jane Peterson

She's meeting up with winners for the first time, but she hasn't run a bad race to date, and she put together a sharp winning performance in her first start wearing blinkers in her latest outing; Garcia has won with 8 of 30 (27%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Cabana

She rolled against nine rivals at RP in her only start over turf prior to this and she's out of a minor stakes placed dam who won 3 of 15 turf starts for 82k; this is a very capable barn that does nice work with turf starters and they figure to heat up at any moment. - Brian Pochman

Race 6

All Cash

Stretches back out while dropping after a troubled run in his Keeneland return from the break; sophomore didn't do much in any of his dirt starts but he does have early lick and should be able to get involved in the pace from here; he's had his share of chances but hasn't run this cheaply and looms a big threat.

Lincoln Law

Four year old is another who hasn't run this cheaply and he enters this off a solid pace effort at a slightly longer trip at Keeneland; colt should find himself in a good spot early and maybe he has a move forward in him second time in blinkers; consider.

Top Priority

Ran well when dropped in for a tag for the initial time at Oaklawn last month and now he'll return to a venue at which he finished off the board in all 3 spins; maybe it was the wet track that helped him last time, but he did show an improved turn of foot and could be set to move forward off it in this spot; contender.

Open a Tap

Sophomore steps in to face older claimers for the initial time in this spot after a few weak tries against MSWs at Oaklawn this winter; he's the first foal to race out of a SP dam whose lone win came going long; barn is profitable off this type of break, but the gelding has a lot of improving to do to step here.

Sadler's Warrior

Poor break did him in sprinting first out at in an Oaklawn key heat and now he'll try 2 turns against claimers in his local debut; he returned to work ok at Keeneland and the barn does boast some recent success with second out runners; he's kin to SW router and 101K earner Charming Vixen.

Roque Bluff

Tried older foes first out but after getting off to a tough start, he didn't have much to offer; colt's subsequent spin did earn a competitive number and though he wasn't very competitive, he did run into a couple of next out winners in that one; with a turf conditioning run in him he may be set to offer more second time in shades while returning to the main track.

Danzig Gold

He'll try older for the first time while getting back in with claimers in his local return; barn boasts some recent luck with its runners switching surfaces and this guy did return to breeze well over the local main track for this; maybe for a minor share.

Forty Four North

Gelding was close in 2 tries for this price earlier in the year and took a step back in his Oaklawn finale; gelding has some early foot and that can't hurt him from this outside draw; he's had chances and hasn't run as fast as some of these, but he gets a solid journeyman pilot for a barn that's gotten off to a nice start here and can't be dismissed.

Next in Line

Took a good step forward while making his first start back from 11 months on the shelf against cheaper sprinters at Keeneland; gelding can move forward with that one behind him and the barn does well with both stretchouts and runners going second back from the break, but the dam's side of the pedigree suggests this guy will be better at one turn trips. - Steve Grabowski

Race 8

Swept Up

Sire is 69-for-624 with 1st-time starters; hails from a win-early family; is out of a Grade 3-stakes winning dam (9-for-16, 550K) who captured her first 3 starts producing 5 winners from 6 other foals to race including 367K-earner Cash Refund (7-for-22) who won his 1st two starts.

Judy Judy Judy

Lots of angles for an improved performance like racing 2nd-time out and with 1st Lasix; main issue is she showed no run at all in the 7-1 debut when sent longer; the trainer began the CD meet on an 0-for-14 after his runners loved KEE.

Red Parasol

Saved best for last but was still no match for Nanette's Spirit; the 2-back winner and runner-up finisher Beyered 78-70 in next-out AQU-MSW and optional-claiming wins; stamina has been the biggest issue about backing; know her early but unsure about late.

Indian Conduct

The show, 6th and 8th-place finishers from last Beyered 66-64-54 in next-out FG-MSW-WO-20K-maiden claiming and FG-$12,500-maiden-claiming wins; away since a troubled-gate break in the debut; not much expected at 24-1 odds in her unveiling while the workouts for this do not inspire.

Lochan

Long layoff coming off a field-best Beyer speed figure; adding another half furlong for this closer helps the cause; on Oaks and Derby days racing on the lead or being close to the front early was the key to success; figures to watch Nanette's Spirit set the pace and figures as the one they all must hold off late; the one to beat.

Unbridledexplosion

The trainer rarely wins with 1sters so the closing-show effort for her debut was very good and a good enough sign that the debut rider stays right here; like with a few others here she encountered trouble 1st-time out and could turn things around in a big way with a sharper start; contender.

Nanette's Spirit

Projects to be flying early to play catch me if you can; last-out KEE runners have dominated the early days of the CD meet; worked well on dirt to end 2013 but have not seen a published main-track workout since January; lone concern is the barn is 0-for-22 with maiden 2nd starters since 2013; the pick

Purse Strings

Freshened up off the debut-troubled trip where bet down to favortism; was working quicker on KEE synthetic than she showed at CD in recent a.m. drills; last-out KEE runners have been rock solid at the current CD meeting; see lots of upside here. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Saturday Nthe Park

Respect the early speed that she brings with her but she's going to need to show a lot of improvement over what she's shown in her two turf starts prior to this if she's to have a say in the outcome; a tricky rail post adds to the level of difficulty for this stakes placed miss.

Queen Negwer

There is a chance that the early pace in here is fast and contested, but it doesn't look like this late running miss is quite capable of producing a performance that is strong enough to get the job done in this spot; looking toward others.

Point to the Wild

His form sprinting over turf since moving into this barn has been strong and she finished right behind one of today's key rivals in Sweet Cassiopeia in her latest outing; Hernandez seems to know all the right buttons to push aboard this mare.

Costly

It's been a while since she's been at her best and her recent form hasn't been strong enough to help give her a competitive look in this spot; runner up from latest won next out at TP on 12/21 going 6f vs. starter alw. rivals with a 66 Beyer.

To My Valentine (FR)

Stakes winning miss is capable of putting in a serious bid for the top spot against these, and she's versatile enough to adapt to any early pace scenario; like the idea of her being ready to deliver a sharp performance while making her second start back from a layoff.

Marcasite

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was winless from six starts, and she didn't make a turf start; maiden has never run a race that is anywhere near fast enough to suggest that she can run with these.

Sweet Cassiopeia

Multiple stakes winning mare has a number of starts sprinting over turf on her card that are fast enough to point her out as a top contender, and like to see what she's done from three starts over this turf course; note that she outran a few of today's rivals in her latest outing.

Dixie Jackpot

She has seven wins next to her name, but none over turf, and this is a very difficult spot for her to try turf for the second time; willing to upgrade her chances if this event has to be moved to the main track. - Brian Pochman

Race 10

Tiz a Treat

The drop is logical after several poor efforts; the 2 siblings to race were non-winners; homebred could get shuffled from the rail; if she can run at all, she figures to show it here.

Justice Judy

Hung wide in last, she has much more speed than she just flashed and the new blinkers could help in that department; backers can point to the lone sibling that won 4 times and earned almost $70K; note she improved in the last second off the layoff run; could be a good thing in a bad race.

Sunlite Pool

Sir Shackleton 0 for 50 with debuters; sire took a Grade 2, won 7 of 20, earned over a million; 3 for 18 dam won twice at 2, banked about $90K; several multiple race winners in the family; 3 earned over $250K including juvenile debut winner, stakes placed racer and near $350K player Iron Rogue; lean toward watching one.

Indian Fiesta

Hung wide in post 10 in the local debut, like the way she was inching toward the winner in last; connections would like to see her start acting like top kin Pinball, who took 5 of 9, earned nearly $190K; off poorly in last, a clean break and it could be a new ballgame.

Molly Z

Best race was here when beaten a length; at least there are several multiple race winners in the minor league in the family; she wanted no part of the synthetic or route game; has some things to iron out.

Sandy Creek Girl

She teased a few times last year and like the spacing of the comeback drills; a half bro did take 2 sprints vs. soft company; she seems to have taken to the surface; may like it here.

Wickedly Sweet

Brings speed and she needed the last effort; show horse 1/19 graduated next out in a maiden $25K claimer, lost next several; a bit more keen to drill on the 1st; should give a good account of herself.

Out to Sea

Homebred must be given legot look on the drop alone; 3/22 place horse cashed next out in a maiden $40K seller at KEE; dam was 0 for 4; lone half bro to race First Minister took one of 14, earned almost $25K; 4th new pilot hired; expect better effort.

Fredette

Jimmer fans have not had much to cheer about so far; beaten double digits in both sprints, but she may have hated the soft surfaces in the last pair; backers can hang their head on fact lone sibling Lady Asano earned over $100K; passing.

Jock's Girl

Miss took overland route in last but at least she had the 2 races to draw from now; would have liked to have seen some local drills; not Rocco has had success for this barn. - Brian Mulligan