Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for May 1, 2014

Race 1

Metro Dreamer

He didn't fire in his two starts on wet tracks but there was nothing wrong with his races on Poly in his latest and when he ran over a fast track at Aqueduct; takes the plunge and the past five years Kenneally has a 23 percent strike rate with horses going from MSW to maiden claiming; looks a serious player.

L. A. Freeway

He's had trouble at the beginning in all three of his races so maybe the addition of blinkers will help him get off to a better start; he owns the best Beyer Speed Figure in the field and the horse that won the race, Life in Shambles, came back to win a $75K optional race at Aqueduct with an 82 Beyer Figure; he is a half to $795K Grade 2 sprint stakes winner Reneesgotzip so sprinting might be what he really wants to do; the pick.

Good Times Rambles

Debuts for Hobby who the past five years has an 8 percent strike rate with horses making their first start in a maiden claimer; sire 13 percent with first timers; 1/13 dam's lone win came sprinting; this her first foal and he cost $340K as a yearling so it isn't encouraging to see him show up for a tag first time; passing.

Borseggiatore

Just one third from nine starts isn't encouraging but he was facing straight maidens until he dropped into a maiden claimer in his latest at Keeneland; he was pretty much eliminated at the start but at least he made up some ground late; first foal out of a mare that won a single race and earned $22K could be ready for a big effort in the third start of his current form cycle; consider for the exotics.

Tall Boy

Drops another notch after getting beat by double digits for the fourth straight race and he will need to take a big step forward in order to contend here; at least he showed a bit more speed in his latest but he didn't hang around very long; hard to see it.

One Tango Charlie

He's had a couple of decent works since fading in his first start this year; the winner just about beat Life in Shambles in his next start and the fifth-place finisher came back to win a MSW weight race at Gulstream with a 98 Beyer Speed Figure; he'll appreciate the easier company and note the strong stats Romans has with horses dropping into maiden claiming races; he also looks like the one they'll have to catch; interesting.

Gauntlet

First timer is by Pulpit who is roughly 12 percent as a debut sire; all six sibs are winners, (two won first time out), the best being multiple Grade 2 winner Smooth Air who earned $1.1 million; Calhoun can have them ready to roll - 21 percent with first time starters the past five years; works just average but nobody should be shocked if he comes out running. - Randy Goulding

Race 2

Hazards of Love

Tough ol' dude has been a pro for a long time - hey, you don't win 18 times by accident; had a terrific 2013 (8 for 11) but after a so-so first run this year at FG Feb. 13 he's been freshened; that's OK, particularly as he'd been busy and he returns here without a tag attached, but note after that Feb. 13 he posted a big bullet work there Feb. 23, but didn't work again for nearly 2 months so did something go awry?; again, at least he's back with no tag attached but it's a tough spot so he would need to come back full-tilt.

Pedrolino

Nice 2nd in the mud at FG March 5 and Asmussen saw fit to claim him; that being said, he was in very cheap ($7,500) and these are much tougher; at least it's nice that Asmussen has brought him back where he can't lose him via another claim; like the rail horse he's been a warrior for a long time and knows where the wire is (10 wins) but there's a layoff and if you take away his HAW form his Beyers need a kick in the pants vs. these.

Slick Pardoned Me

They claimed him Nov. 23 and while the first start back at OP wasn't much he then posted a 23-1 upset there March 22; came back with a not-so-hot run at KEE April 16, however; still, it's nice to see they don't risk losing him via a claim but this is no easy spot and for all his success (11 wins) none of it came here (0 for 13).

Biker Boy

3rd at OP a couple weeks ago, which is nice; trouble is, he was no factor really at any point (beaten 12 1/4 lengths); another grizzled veteran and 5 of his 13 wins have come here; Moquett lost him via a claim Feb. 17 but snatched him right back March 8 and last time and today places him where he can't lose him via another claim.

Broome Street

Looked super blasting some nice foes at GP Feb. 13 by 5 1/2 lengths, but he then bled and was pulled up vs. $35K foes there Feb. 27; Catalano claimed him that day, too; at least does not return him for a tag and the works of late are pretty encouraging that the rest has him back on track; was always cut out to be a nice horse as he's kin to Monthir (G2/G3 SP), Sky Mesa (G1/G2 SW) and Golden Velvet (G3 SW, G1 SP).

Flyin Trey

Had a terrific 2013, the bulk of it at CRC, and that included 6 wins; 4 2014 starts have been mixed - a couple of them were decent but he comes off a very dull run in the slop there April 6; Holthus saw fit to claim him that day and returns him in a spot where he can't lose him via a claim; another veteran who has been a real pro for a long time (12 wins) but as with the others you wonder if time is finally starting to take its toll. - Michael Hammersly

Race 5

Delightful Empire

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 2 of 17 starts for 71k, including 2 of 15 turf starts for 69k; she has some early speed but she'll have to step up her game in her turf debut to get the job done.

Candy Crush

This filly has a little bit of turf in her pedigree and she might be ready to give a good account of herself while making the third start of her current form cycle; she's probably going to need to improve along the Beyer Speed Figure scale to get the job done, but at the very least, she's worthy of consideration underneath in the exotics.

Contestant

Sire wins with approximately 6% of his turf starters and multiple graded stakes winning dam won 9 of 34 starts for 685k, including 5 of 22 turf starts for 479k; this filly is a 1/2 to Insider Tip (3-11, 96k over turf).

Stella Cavallo

Her two starts this year have been right in line with what it might take to win this event, and she's shown some versatility by running well from both on and off the pace; she commands respect as a top contender while going out for a barn and rider that win a lot of races together.

Irish Vixen

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam won 2 of 14 starts for 99k, including 0-for-1 over turf; runner up from latest won next out at OP on 2/22 going 6f vs. 20k MCL's with a 65 Beyer.

Sylvan Light

She's had plenty of chances to show us what she's capable of, including five starts over turf, and she's going to need to show more if she's to have a chance at something more than a minor award.

Amore Grand

One of two signed on in here for the Romans barn and Stella Cavallo is the stronger of the two; maybe this lightly raced miss still has more to show us, but it's difficult to give her a favorable push based on what she's done so far.

Cause to Celebrate

She's basically been outrun at every point of call in her first two starts, but it is too early to give up on her, and she's making her first start for a barn that has made the most of their limited starters in 2014.

Queen Daenerys

This miss has a good deal of quality to her pedigree, and when looking around at the dirt form in here, there doesn't seem to be any reason why she can't prove to be a legitimate threat if this race has to be taken off the turf. - Brian Pochman

Race 6

Wild Target

Blinkers go back on following an even effort in his first try on a synthetic surface in a $40K claimer at Keeneland; he won't mind the switch back to dirt and he particularly likes this surface with a couple of wins from five starts; he's regressed since he won a $32K optional race in the slop at Tampa but maybe the equipment change will help wake him up; contender.

Request a Puck

4-year-old has earned most of his $166K in state-bred middle-distance races in Louisiana and this will be the first time he's raced in a straight claiming race; he did have a sharp work here April 26 but it does look like he wants a bit more distance; horse that finished third in his latest earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure for his win in a state-bred race on turf at Evangeline; looking in other directions.

Wagson

He likes to win races and he has a very good 4-2-1 record from 9 starts at this distance; claimed out of his last two and the past five years his new trainer is 4/77 running them back the first time; horse that beat him two back won a first-level allowance race at Will Rogers Downs with a 71 Beyer in his next start; consider for the exotics.

Calmer Than You

Faded in his latest, and although he usually runs well fresh he may have needed the outing; horse that won the race won a state-bred stakes at Hawthorne with an 89 Beyer Speed Figure Apr. 19; he's had a couple of sharp works, drops into a straight claimer for the first time, and attracts Napravnik who is off to a hot start at the meet; he could also be gone if he breaks on top; the pick.

Doc Almon

4-year-old owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure and he is another one dropping into a straight claiming race for the first time; horse that won his latest is a nice one who was coming off a win in a $62,500 optional race here last Nov.; this guy may have tipped his hand when he worked a bullet four furlongs April 19 and he figures to move forward in his second start following a layoff; live barn adds to his appeal; big shot.

Montezuma Express

He won both of his starts here last Nov. but they came in conditional claimers and he will need to improve on his career-best Beyer Speed Figure to contend in this spot; he was overmatched by $404K earner Bull Dozer in his only start this year but it would have been nice to see him show at least some interest and now it's been over three months since he ran; passing.

Brink of War

He ran the best race of his 16-race career when he won a $30K n/w/2 here in Nov. so we know he likes the surface; not sure why the layoff following his dull effort in a $17K optional race at the Fairgrounds in Feb., though; works just average leading up to his return and since 2011 McCarthy hasn't won with the five horses he's brought back from this type of layoff; prefer others. - Randy Goulding

Race 7

Rack'em Earl

Twice beaten favorite lost ground throughout in his first 2-turn assignment; may be better suited by this straightaway mile and he races for the lowest price tag of his career; should be able to prompt the issue at the very least.

Swiss Confederate

Stays at the same level following the claim; showed vastly improved fighting speed in the last run; his sire won a G3 and 622K while the dam won 1 of 4 attempts and 14K; this is her only foal to compete; a soft early pace today should help.

Haldor

Making only his second attempt in the claiming ranks, he can prove a forward factor today; set the early tempo in his last effort, over a tiring turf course, and should appreciate the return to the main oval; looks like a good fit.

Hidden Brook

Upgraded when stretching out in the last assignment at Tampa but the fractions and final time were ordinary; local breeze pattern does not inspire much confidence and he cannot be given the main recommendation against these.

Barry Shortpants

Confirmed closer has important prior experience over this course including his career debut where he lost by a narrow margin; got away slowly in his first start of the year at Fair Grounds and has to find a way to get into the race sooner today.

George and John

Ran into an above average group here last season where he did not factor; not really bred for the turf so the last effort can be dismissed; still has not shown much enthusiasm in any performance and does not seem a prime contender at this unfamiliar distance.

Golden Shiner

Adds Lasix after a pair of disappointing efforts; his sire won a G3 and 444K overall; the dam went 1 for 10 earning 30K; among the winning sibs is 114K bankroller Willie Bass; generous betting value is certain.

This Ones for Tony

Camera shy gelding goes back to the main oval following a turf campaign last summer where he lost a series of close decisions; latest breeze was fair and he picks up Pedroza who has done very well with a limited number of mounts for these connections. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Utley

USA debut occurred on CD grass back in 2010 where he finished 7th in a Grade 2 event; the 3-back winner repeated in a GP-optional claimer with a 99 Beyer speed figure; the winless drought is more than one year old; latest-even finish at KEE did not give the impression he was at the top of his game currently while back in just 18 days for this.

Looking Cool

Firm turf is the key as he wanted no parts of wet green in recent races including the 2-back loss to Utley; the 2-back winner repeated with a 99 Beyer; 3-back win was good where he defeated the runner-up finisher who Beyered 98 in a next-out CD-Grade 3-stakes win; jockey from latest and his last-win rider went to Star Channel for this.

Golden Ron

Expecting him to flash some-gate speed with Regally Ready; the 2-0-0-0 turf record is not easy to take; his last grass start was posted May, 2011, a 4th-place finish in a CD-MSW-5F event; the 2-back winner made it 6 in a row next out winning an OP-100K stakes with a 101 Beyer.

Regally Ready

Try to catch me; start 32 of career he has not raced this long of a distance yet; owns the numbers' edge with a best-last-race Beyer; his field-best 105 speed figure was posted May, 2011, winning a CD-Grade 2 Turf Sprint (5F); his last win was right on the lead which seems his best game unlike last when rated off the speed then middle moved.

Quick Wit

Deep-closing winner so expecting him to work out a similar trip as we have Regally Ready here expected to set a lively pace; hopes that one receives early pressure for this to help his late punch; has won at longer on CD grass but getting up in time to win it all is the main concern; the 3-back winner and runner-up finisher Beyered 102-101 in next-out OP-Grade 3 and GP-OPC wins.

Star Channel

His stalking/midpack racing style fits the CD-turf course very well; attracts Leparoux to ride who seemingly had a few other options for this; was not nearly in his best form right off the 11-week absence in last as the winner avenged the 2-back loss; main concern is the last time he raced on CD grass Looking Cool with Leparoux riding his nemesis that day defeated him.

Burn the Mortgage

FIgures to work out an ideal trip stalking Golden Ron-Regally Ready from the gate; FG-fresh runners have fared very well in the opening days of the CD meet; consistent sort has won at longer than this on CD grass which is a great sign in a field with some stamina-challenged runners entered; hard to leave out.

Set the Sail

A long-layoff winner scored opening night at CD coming right off a similar last-out long-CD freshening; has raced very well off prior layoffs which bodes well for this; exits a co-best-last-race Beyer speed figure on wet turf but has been very best on firm footing which he is expected to get for this; projects to sit just off Regally Ready from the gate then hopes to get 1st run on the closers; the pick.

Bradester

Main Track Only entry made an easy lead in latest but had nothing to offer in the final part of the 9F-dirt test; favored in defeat in his last 2-CD main track starts; beat the 2-back runner-up finisher at today's distance who Beyered 97-92 in 2 next-out wins (LS-G3 Texas Mile and DED-75K stakes wins); last-out FG-fresh runners won 4 races here opening night. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Chester's Park

Exits a deceptive race where he middle moved on a very wide path before fading; maiden win, from the rail slot, was explosive, and perhaps he can come close to that performance level now with an alert beginning; playable on the turnback since the betting value will be there.

Back Off Buddy

Scored at odds-on in mid-March only to be stopped on; shows a fair breeze pattern since and draws comfortably; ideal position would be a lurking third behind battling leaders; might go to post as an underlay, however; difficult call.

Justa Runner

Used up in a pace battle when trying a route for the first time last month; previous sprint try was noteworthy as he was involved in a pressure situation before fading; also notice the differential in the last pair of half-mile breezes; should be within range here.

Relentless Spirit

Enjoyed good position when graduating at Keeneland but it seems likely he will have to deal with a swifter early pace this afternoon and may not have such a similar easy trip; solid trainer/jockey team is a plus but relative inexperience cannot be overlooked.

Caballo Del Cielo

Looks like the speed of the speed and his sole start over the course here last November is of great interest; in that race, he was unable to grab the early lead and did not show his true colors; if clearing the field immediately today, he will prove very tough to run down; bonus points if front-runners have dominated the card; the selection.

Simple Interest

Rallied well, but after the fact, in his only start since October (a fine tightener); has winning experience at this oval and that tally was with today's rider in the irons; draws right outside the main pacesetter and that can give him a tactical advantage; worth some exacta play.

Mean Marine

A clear-cut second in his March getaway race while no match to the winner; all prior failures at Churchill were in route affairs and his future may center on sprint racing; goes back to winning rider Graham who will likely try to have him in the proper spot to make first run. - Jim Kachulis

Race 10

Jack Milton

He was twice G1 SP as a sophomore and now he'll make his first start in 5 months in a second level allowance heat; colt shouldn't have any problem with this 8 panel trip and she's run well off freshenings in the past; though they surely have more lucrative events in mind for him down the road, his best is good enough to take his first with older and he's been breezing better of late for a solid return barn; likely better next time, but he's the one they'll have to beat.

Stormy Going

Switches surfaces after giving up a clear lead over synthetic footing when dropped in with claimers at Keeneland last out; 6 year old ran well on the green out of town last year and he does have speed which should again make him prominent from this draw, but he hasn't done much in his 2 tries on the course; keeps things going up top.

O'Prado Ole

They put him in against stakes runners to end last season and after showing solid improvement prior to that, he didn't do much running; his first start of the season wasn't much either, but it did come at a much longer trip than he'll try here and he's returned from the freshening to work rather well on the local main track; he'll need to improve, but maybe he's set to do that and the price will surely be right.

Joes Blazing Aaron

Gelding shows speed regardless of trip and earned a pretty big number from his pace setting effort in the G2 Gulfstream marathon while returning from the freshening; he'll pick up some weight for the cut back to this trip but he should be tighter with his last behind him and he's a solid fit at this level; nice to see Rosie take interest, but the big concern is that he hasn't won in quite a long time; one to consider, but probably worth trying to beat.

Depeche Chat

Steps back into the allowance ranks after offering little late in the Oaklawn slop 5 weeks back; gelding should appreciate the return to the green and he did win over the course in the fall; solid local breeze suggests he may be set to take a step forward in this heat; maybe for a share.

Guest Star

Made his first start of the season a winning one as he impressively ran away from cheaper foes at Tampa Bay Downs; he returns in less than a month for this one, but he does have a right to be better with his return from 9 months on the shelf behind him; his style should put him in a good spot from the bell and he'll get the services of a pilot who is fresh off an excellent Keeneland meeting.

Bim Bam

Seven year old didn't have much to offer in his first start of the year at Gulfstream, but he was facing a pretty decent bunch in that restricted stakes heat; after earning some solid numbers last winter, he wasn't as good as the year went on and don't know that he's going to show up with enough to factor for the top spot in this one.

Cozzetti

Stretches out after failing to factor against main track stakes foes in his Gulfstream finale; his effort over the turf course down there to begin this year was pretty good and he does lure a top pilot so maybe the return to the lawn helps move him up some.

Strike Impact

Hasn't been as good since returning for his 10 year old season and now he'll in for a tag in his local return; he's run pretty well over the course in the past and his drill earlier in the month suggests that he may have a little more to offer today.

Big Blue Spirit (GB)

Outside drawn 5 year old was in over his head on the Keeneland main track last time and now he'll go back to the lawn; he has been in the exacta in half of his 12 turf spins but didn't do much in his lone local course spin and hasn't been on his game in some time; prefer others.

Red Strike

First part of the coupling is first on the AE list after running away from claimers on synthetic footing last time; 7 year old gets back to footing he most appreciates and this sharp outfit has had recent luck moving to this type of footing; barn keeps them going once they get them good and Rosie will stick with him if he gets to go.

Film Shot

AE lures Leparoux for his first start under this outfit's care; he's been away better than half a year and neither of his recent fresh efforts was anything special; he did run ok last summer on the lawn in New York and those efforts could get him involved for a piece of this, but he'll start from a tough spot if he draws into this heat.

Silver Freak

AE was defeated at odds on in his first crack at the level while returning from nearly 4 months on the shelf at Gulfstream last time; gelding has a right to be better with that one behind him and though he'll start from an outside slot his speed should help him overcome it from the bell; don't know that he'll be able to get in but he must be considered if he gets in the gate.

Saturday Launch

He's mired on the AE list and not likely to make his return to the lawn in this spot; 5 year old hasn't won in a long time and his most recent turf spin was rather poor; tough to make a case for him if he meets the starter.

The Best Glacier

Second part of the coupling also has Rosie named and she'll get aboard if this one comes off the lawn; MTO seeks his fourth straight score after running his foes down at odds on in his first start of the year at Fair Grounds; he's had time to get over the try and though he hasn't run so well over the local main track, he does like the trip and is in great form; handles a wet track and figures pretty tough if the rains come. - Steve Grabowski

Race 11

Alexander Thegreat

Been awhile between drinks; last win came in December of 2011; 2nd and 4th finishers in last took $40K N2L and $25K N2L claimers next out respectively; inside again, runner could have thrown in the towel after breaking slowly but he still tried; another slice?

Iron King

Finally off the rail, runner was beaten over 15 the last time in town; 2/2 show horse cashed next out in a $5K N3L, then won for that price in a N4L spot; even after setting the soft splits, runner still caved in; he only beat 4 foes in the last win; would be careful here.

Moon Back More

Only a brief threat in last when getting hammered on the tote; clever maiden breaker here but it was slop aided; runner has a decent turn of late foot and if you figure he just needed the last, you can make a case for a move forward; needs a rebound run.

Gran Chat

Gelding must prove it on dirt; shorter trip could work to his advantage; place horse in the last win took a $15K N2L fray with a 67 Beyer; in tough on the cut back last time when protected, he just could not keep up; look for rider to be much more aggressive this time.

Brigade

Out of the money in the last 2 comeback attempts; place horse in last beat $15K claimers in next here and 6th finisher won next in a $16K Philly starter; finally off the rail, considering he is fresh, would not be shocked if he is forwardly placed; could at least muddle the pace.

Courtmaster

Gelding tried to loop the field going 6 wide in last and he was well clear; proven locally vs. softer, the sprint last time could have perked up his speed; top last-race Beyer in the resume, he should be right on the wire when the smoke clears.

Impassable Canyon

Colt has never been in this soft; 3/28 show horse cashed next out in a $32K claimer; proven in allowance company, runner has the 2 races to draw from now and like the series of drills coming to this fray; note he was 5 clear 2 back, this rider was up for the maiden breaker; can't fault those that give him another shot after the double flop as chalk.

All Star Bell

Game in the dead heat win after he stumbled last time; he hesitated early 2 back and may not have cared for the wet/fast sealed strip; at least he was fit enough to drill since the last effort and trainer has spotted them super all year; probably needs to improve to make an impact.

Gladhander

Can't be thrilled with the local slate; in his best local effort he was beaten a half in a maiden $15K claimer; show horse in last took a $5K N3L claimer next out and the 5th finisher beat a $25.3K N3L allowance ground at MNR in next; decent blowout a week ago, look for rider to send hard and try to steal it. - Brian Mulligan