Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for June 7, 2014

Race 1

Above the Bar

Not wild about Majestic Warrior as a turf sire, but this gelding did run well the first time he raced over turf against nine rivals at Tampa Bay Downs two starts ago, and he can be ready for a sharper start while meeting up with winners for the second time.

Phenomenalmoon

He deserves another chance to see what he can do over turf when considering that his only turf start prior to this was in a G2 event; he looks like a good fit at this 40-35k N2L claiming level and this is a barn and rider that win a lot of races together.

City Connect

His lack of early speed can provide for some anxious moments, and he has just a single win next to his name after 17 starts, but he sports some of the stronger and more consistent turf form in here, and the drop in class might be just what he needs.

Nobel Laureate

He's struggled in his two turf starts before now and it would have been nice to have seen him show more in his latest outing when entered with a tag attached for the first time; he's going to need his sharpest performance to date to prove to be the one in this spot.

John Adams

Lightly raced 7-year-old has finished in the mix in all four of his starts over turf but he's going to need to find a way to take his game to another level while getting over the Churchill Downs turf course for the first time if he's to prove to be a threat.

Bold Shot

Nicely bred runner is out of a multiple G1 stakes placed dam who won 4 of 21 starts for 339k, including 0-for-3 over turf, and if nothing else, he appears to be well meant while getting back over turf for his second start after a layoff; he's another late running type who figures to be moving in on them through the stretch.

Big Island Boy

He ran well in a winning performance to break his maiden in his first start wearing blinkers two back, and like the idea of him dropping in class for his second start back from a layoff; his most recent workout looks sharp and like to see him teaming up with Lanerie again.

Bern' James Bern

There's a chance that the early pace in this race will be slow to develop and that would certainly be to the liking of this gelding; he looks like he can make some noise in this spot whether this race is run over turf or the main track; must consider.

Brazilian Court

He's capable of putting together a competitive run against these on his best day, but this is only his second start back from a very long layoff and he was claimed away from Ramsey and Maker out of his latest race; others entice more. - Brian Pochman

Race 4

Saint Finian

Draws the fence for his first spin with older after offering little off the slow start in his return to dirt last out; colt has yet to hit the board in either of his main track tries and there's not a lot to suggest he'll go much better in here; have to side with others on the win end.

Brink of War

Tries better after running an ok third against claimers in his local return from 3 months on the sidelines; 4 year old return to breeze well the other day for this but he isn't the most consistent sort and he does get another new pilot today; looking elsewhere.

Back Off Buddy

Colt was beaten chalk in his local debut while making his first start against winners; barn hits at a nice clip with runners second time back and he does have the early foot to sit a good spot from the bell today; guy who finished just ahead of him last time returns in this spot as well, but maybe that just helps to inflate the price; contender.

Relentless Spirit

Ran big for second money in his first crack with winners while making his local return early last month; lightly raced 4 year old was able to get past what appears to be today's main foe in that one and he returned to breeze a sharp half mile; looks like they'll have him to beat.

Shake Up

First part of the coupling had been idle since opening up a big lead at Fair Grounds late last year and then dumping his pilot; maybe the new hood helps keep him from running off and he has responded well to the new equipment in the recent mornings; shorter trip could also help keep him involved late.

Duval

Earned a pretty nice number in breaking his maiden when stepped in to face older for the initial time; barn going quite well at the stand and this guy has the tactical foot to secure a good tracking spot just off the front runners in this spot; dangerous repeat threat.

How Bout That

Other half of the entry starts from the outside slot while adding shades for his return to facing older rivals; gelding moved into a hot clip from an outside past in his first local spin and understandably came up short late at the trip; he's been breezing well for another crack at this 7 panel distance and maybe he finds himself in decent tracking position here. - Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Zip N Run

Run Away and Hide 7 for 61 with debuters; sire raced 3 times, won all those juvenile starts, earned nearly $225K; 1 for 8 dam earned 2 grand a start; lone half sis was third in only out; love this work pattern.

Kiero

Discreet Cat about 12% with debuters in a 186-runner sample; G1 winning sire took debut at 2, won 6 of 9, banked over $1.6 million; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; colt looks fit enough.

Red Solid Perfect

Brief threat in grass bow; Grade 1 winning 2 for 15 dam earned over $300K, took debut at 2; this is her first to race; needs to turn it around; got a feeling we have not seen the best of this one.

Gaines' Mill

Any Given Saturday about 11% with debuters in a 162-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, took G1 Haskell at the shore, banked over a million; dam just one for 17, a route; 4 of 6 siblings won; top kin informed took a pair of G2s, banked over $500K; homebred may need one.

R Rocky

Unraced Spanish Steps 6 for 150 with debuters; SP 3 for 21 dam earned nearly $70K, won at 2; the half sis to win Easter Dell took 3 of 20, banked $100K; in light to kick it off.

One Tango Charlie

Not thrilled with the beat vs. softer two back; there are a couple of winners in the tree but neither was much stock; he has more speed than he flashed in last; the experience may help him late.

Set of J's

Wildcat Heir about 17% with debuters in a 327-runner sample; sire took debut at 2, went on to bank over $400K; dam just one for 22; all 3 siblings won including SW and over $225K earner Sincero; the drill on the 23rd screams off the page.

Key for Success

Red Giant 4 for 29 with firsters; Grade 1 winning sire won half of 12 outs, all on turf, banked over a million; 6 for 36 dam earned nearly $145K; lone half bro lost 6 times; note no published moves in April.

Tribal Message

At least he has the 2 races to draw from now; expect him to get into the fray late if at all; respect everything from this barn. - Brian Mulligan

Race 6

Goodtime Wilson

He flashed a little bit of early speed in his career debut but he's obviously going to need to produce a much improved overall performance if he's to have a say in the outcome against this solid gathering of maiden special weight rivals.

Greyfell

Sire wins with approximately 10% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; maybe he'll prove to be the type that hangs around the maiden ranks for awhile, but he's run well over dirt and synthetic surfaces, and this is an outfit that can have one ready for an improved performance with a move to turf.

Afleet Moss

His career debut was a very nice run, especially for a firster going a mile, and this gelding is out of a G1 winning dam who won 6 of 11 starts for 383k, including 0-for-3 over turf; there's a good deal of potential for better living here at the moment, so have to label him a top contender.

Sportscaster

All three of his starts over turf can be viewed in a positive light and the 87 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his latest effort represents the best last race figure in this field; his experience edge might have been the difference, but note that he beat today's rival Afleet Moss last time.

Span

He finished behind a couple of today's rivals in his latest outing but he has every right to be ready for better now that he has some racing experience to call upon; he's by a top turf sire and he's out of a multiple G1 winning dam who won 8 of 23 starts for $1.4 million, including 3 of 6 turf starts for 667k.

Spring Action

Sire wins with approximately 19% of his turf starters and dam won 4 of 34 starts for 189k, including 0-for-4 over turf; albeit against 40k MCL's, he ran very well from off the pace going seven furlongs in his career debut; interesting to see his connections waste little time in getting him over turf after a promising debut run over dirt.

Cairo County

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam was unraced; this colt is a 1/2 to Would You (5-36, 170k, including 1 of 4 turf starts for 36k); can't help but feel that this is a tough assignment for a firster.

De Facto

He has a turf leaning pedigree but it would have been nice to have seen him show a little more in his career debut after going to post at over 26-1; perhaps the addition of blinkers can help move him forward.

Lori's Darling

Louisiana-bred has shown some ability in his three turf starts and today will be the first time that he's racing in blinkers; he will have to step up his game to get the better of the top contenders in here, but not counting out that possibility. - Brian Pochman

Race 7

Wingate Hall

Fine effort here some 3 weeks ago when breaking from this tricky post; minor cutback in distance may actually help if he receives a stronger early pace this afternoon which figures to be the case if all runners remain in attendance; worth some follow-up.

Paden

Graduated in lengthy fashion in late April but was aided by very swift fractions which decimated the front-runners; improved a bit in the latest half-mile breeze but will have to run a personal best in order to defeat these more experienced rivals; difficult call.

Dehaven

Scheduled to race with blinkers for the first time after an even, wide trip last month when negotiating a mile; most recent workout, presumably with the new equipment, shows distinct improvement and perhaps he can rally in time for a share at a healthy price.

So Raise Yourglass

Flashed decent, atypical early speed in his 2013 finale; makes his first attempt at the claiming level and turned in one of his best a.m. moves only 6 days ago; might dissuade some bettors because of the 124 pound impost but remains an intriguing item.

Herd Mentality

Could not handle the severe pace transition of his last race especially since he raced on an extra-wide path; draws inside of Oldwick, the likely early leader today, and might be able to time his middle more effectively (going back to blinkers may help towards that goal).

Smartified

No match for some of these same rivals last month despite being bet down to 4 to 1; will likely have to rally from much further off the pace today if the outside speedball runs back to his last performance; may arrive too late for the top prize.

Smoking Romance

Decent showing last month when visiting this soft n2l level for the first time; had a legitimate excuse in the race prior when far behind Smartified; maiden breaker at Turfway showed a lot of determination when pestered from the opening bell; may fly under the betting radar now.

Oldwick

Set wild fractions in his local debut before tiring in midstretch; seems more than capable of breaking on top here and slowly angling to the rail before backing down the middle fractions; especially dangerous if front-runners in sprints have dominated the card up to this point. - Jim Kachulis

Race 8

Honey Hues

Been a pure-speed runner in recent races but during career has been able to sit just off the speed and win also; suriprisingly stays on lawn despite fading to beat 2 runners home on CD grass in last; her 2-back co-field-best Beyer speed figure was posted on dirt at today's distance; know her early then hopes to hang on late.

Tapit's World

Sire did not race on grass; he is 29-for-321 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal to race out of an 0-for-1 grass dam; the trainer yields just 8% winners 1st turf; the 3-back runner-up finisher Beyered 85 in a next-out FG-optional-claiming win; she has been favored in each of her 8 races and has been working well on dirt for this.

I'm Already Sexy

All-or-nothing type with 5 wins and 7 off-the-board finishes; pace makes the race and when she gets a clear, easy lead the win hopes increase; has Honey Hues to fend off early then the closers late; reunites with the CD turf win rider who is 0-for-12 for the trainer since 2013.

Hot Tempo

Claimed in January and now trying graded stakes; won a key race last out defeating the runner-up and 6th-place finishers; both EVD-100K stakes winners next out with 84-77 Beyers; she beat the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 86 in a next-out KEE alw. win; beat the 3-back show horse a next-out winner with a 102 speed figure then repeated with a 100 in FG-CD-OPC wins.

Miz Ida

Is your defending champion in this event posting a co-field-best Beyer speed figure in 2013 here; obviously needed last start off the nearly 6-month rest and is here 2nd time off-the-bench the winning scenario of last year's win; new rider is 3-for-9 for the trainer at CD since 2013; projects to be closing strongly into a hot pace; the pick.

Embarr

Was listed at 20-1 morning-line odds in a 50K-DEL stakes Thursday at today's distance on turf; if she races here gets the November rematch with Miz Ida who easily handled her at long odds; she beat the 2-back runner-up finisher who Beyered 72 in a next-out PIM-OPC win.

Enchanting Lisa

Still winless on the green; blinkers for last pair helped increase her gate speed but view as a pace presence for part in a field loaded with other gate speed; last-out KEE runners have been super this whole meet but she has been away 7 weeks since tiring at today's distance; the race looks better since the show finisher Beyered 85 in a next-out BEL-alw. win.

Maid On a Mission

Honey Hues easily beat her out of the gate 2-back while in last she scored the upset loose on the lead; breaking widest is likely to chase the speed again; huge class leap noting her only stakes start was a more than 20-length defeat. - Art Gropper

Race 9

Brainwash

Moves to the fence for his second local start and he'll pick up Leparoux; colt ran well for second money as the chalk in his local return and he was quite impressive in scoring the first time he stepped on the local main track; slightly shorter trip may play in this guy's favor; contender may offer an improved price.

Lent

Lightly raced 4 year old was quite good in tracking the front runner and kicking away to post a career best Beyer score first time trying 2 turns and each of the next 2 finishers from the heat returned to win; his drill late last month suggests he remains on his toes for the rise to this level and the inside draw should enable him to secure another tracking trip; repeat threat.

Braveman

Gets another new pilot after proving little match for a runner who freaked a couple of weeks back; after 12 starts this guy earned a career best number in that heat which raises some questions as to the validity of the number and it's not as if he catches a soft bunch in this spot; prefer to side with others.

Morgan's Guerrilla

Five year old kept some decent company as a sophomore when G2 SP in New York but that campaign took its toll on him and sent him to the bench for 16 months; his first 2 turn effort since returning came against an overmatched bunch but the facile score earned him a career best number and maybe he just didn't like the lawn last time; should get an honest pace to run into and that makes him dangerous.

Cary Street

Finally broke through the N1X condition with an impressive score last time and now he'll step up against this tough bunch; number he earned was moderate, but the slow early fractions certainly didn't help and it wasn't the cleanest trip he'd ever negotiated, either; maybe for a minor award.

Big Town

He's in for the optional tag after besting straight claimers as the chalk in his local return; gelding has early foot which is a plus in this heat and he does draw inside what appears to be his main pace foe; local lover should have some confidence back and figures to be in the thick of the heat from the bell; one to run down.

Tarpy's Goal

His last out winning number in the local return run jumps off the page and he does bring plenty of lick to the table; he was in against claimers in that one, though, and it was a one turn heat at which he'd run quite well in the past; waters get deeper are he tackles N2Xs here as well as a 2 turn trip at which he doesn't have much experience; siding against the repeat and backing others on the win end.

Tiz Adonis

Had nothing to offer late at a slightly shorter trip, the second straight time he was no factor late at this level; 4 year old has been off the board in each of his 4 local career starts and there's not much to say things will get better for him today; have to pass on him. - Steve Grabowski

Race 10

Claymaker

Off a career Beyer and like the way he was getting to the winner late; race over the course can't hurt and he should be fit enough by now; note he was also forced to steady last time; he has a right to grow into his skin as kin to double stakes winner and near $200K player Alaura Michele; respect.

Great Minds

Soph has flashed talent from Day One; like the series of drills since the return effort including the blowout last Monday; the blood is there as all the siblings won including a near $300K earner; in good hands, don't ignore.

C J's Awesome

Awesome Again about 7% with first-time turfers in a 344-runner survey; sire earned $4.3 million, never turfed; brings speed and he is on the improve; he gets some class from the dam who was Grade 2 placed and a grass winner; this is her first to race; 5th finisher in last took a maiden $50K claimer and 6th finisher won a MSW fray; major threat.

Saint Dermot

Ghostzapper about 10% with debuters in a 239-runner sample, about 10% with first-time turfers in a 169-starter grid; sire took juvenile debut by 9 with a 99 Beyer, was 2004 Horse of the Year, only lost twice, never turfed; Grade 2 winning dam banked over $350K, never turfed; there is grass success in the tree in the form of $170K earner Redverse; nice move last Monday.

Foretold

Aptitude about 10% with first-time turfers in a 208-starter grid; sire was strictly a dirt router, earned almost $2 million, was 2nd in best result on grass in 2 outs when beaten half length in a MSW; dam was 0 for 4; both sibs won and earned at least $140K a piece but neither won on grass; not seeing it.

Street Chief

Colt has had his chances and he can be his own worst enemy since he has limited speed; backers can point to the fact there are a couple of successful turf runners in the family; a slice may be the ceiling.

Thunder Moon

Malibu Moon about 10% with first-time turfers in a 446-starter grid; sire graduated in second start at 2 at 5 furlongs on dirt for only win in 2-race career; stakes placed 2 for 9 dam banked over $80K, was turf only; this is her first to race; looking elsewhere for a key top horse.

Umustbekidding

Lemon Drop Kid about 9% with debuters in a 543-runner sample, about 12% with first-time turfers in a 459-starter grid; sire won twice at 2, won multiple Grade 1s, banked over $3.2 million, was never on grass; dam was 0 for 4; both sibs were double winners, one cashed once on grass; could need experience.

Noble Bird

Connections had enough confidence to start his carerer vs. winners; dam was unraced; 3rd and 6th finishers in last won in this league next out and the winner was 2nd a neck in a $140K stakes; both siblings were double winners on grass; Elliott got a chance to figure her out.

Wine Scholar

Smart Strike about 15% with firsters in a 812-runner sample, about 12% with first-time turfers in a 634-runner survey; sire won 6 of 8, a Grade 1, over $330K, never turfed; dam out of the money 7 times; 2 siblings to race lost 15 times combined; like this work pattern. - Brian Mulligan