Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for June 28, 2014

Race 1

Miz Minnie Moon

In her first performance for a tag, she displayed more fighting speed; drops way down the totem pole now and can show more endurance as a result; apparently there is very little pace opposition today and that will be to her benefit.

Miss Delstar

Quit early as usual in the last assignment and a sudden reversal just does not seem in the cards; huge odds will be the case once again and she cannot be endorsed under any conditions.

Grace and Grit

In both starts this year, she has been breaking alertly and that helped her to earn minor shares; gets a nice weight shift this afternoon and might be able to improve further since this is only her third outing since November.

Forever Golden

Beaten favorite tries the claiming ranks for the first time and should be a presence against this soft field if able to equal or surpass the run of 3 back at Mountaineer; latest breeze was fair and she can be a threat with a clean getaway.

Gonna Tell Papa

Returns to the purchase price now; her sire won multiple G3s and 173K while the dam scored in 6 of 32 appearances earning 287K; among the winning siblings is 69K eaner Gonna Tell Mama; legit excuse in her maiden voyage of early May.

Littlebitcranky

This is start number 41 and she has been clearly beaten by some of these same opponents; likely to arrive too late for top prize no matter what the early fractions; can be used somewhat in the minor portions of your exotic play.

Don't Tell Me No

Local debut was strong where she was with the pace throughout; this field looks a like weaker than the one on 6/12; her sire won multiple G1s and 2.05 million while the dam won 2 of 6 and 13K; sib to 89K earner Moon Nistle.

Key Agent

Only one blemish on the record and she drops in half for today's action; her sire won 4 of 12 attempts and 322K while the dam was unraced; winning siblings include 64K earner Indian Assault.

Fredette

Raced evenly in her comeback race 16 days ago and lost significant ground that day; can certainly upgrade following that tightener especially if a more heated pace occurs; picks up Lanerie who has done well for these connections with a limited number of mounts.

Lillysadilly

Failed to fire last year while going to post at giant odds so she continues her drop down the hierarchy in this return bid; workout pattern is light and uninspiring; cannot endorse until some real firepower is shown.-Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Incremental

Moderate workout pattern on view; his sire won 4 of 6 starts and 148K; progeny of Flatter have won nearly 10 percent of their debuts; the dam went zero for 5; this is her only foal to make it to the races.

Hashtag Bourbon

Sired by Derby winner Super Saver who won 3 of 10 and 1.88 million overall (his offspring are zero for 5 as far as winning their first test); the dam won 2 of 20 and 48K; winning siblings include 236K earner Wild Horses.

Tiz Town

His sire twice won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 6.42 million in total; descendants of Tiznow have scored in 45 out of 622 initial starts; the dam won 4 of 12 and 871K; sib to 54K bankroller Eton Blue.

Mr. Z

Progeny of the prolific Malibu Moon, who won 1 of 2 races and 33K, are 108 for 775 in the first time victorious category; the dam was unraced; among the winning siblings is 75K earner Ibn Al Nafis; there is a steady, progressive set of half-mile breezes to consider.

The Schwam

See Hashtag Bourbon, above, for information about the same sire; the dam went zero for 2; among the winning siblings is 114K bankroller Well Read; failed to threaten in his initial try with no known excuse.

Louisiana Brown

Latest blowout was upbeat; his sire is Derby winner Big Brown who captured 3.61 million; his descendants have won their first race at a rate of 12 percent; the dam won 1 of 11 and 11K; sib to 51K earner Gimmeaslam.

A Bit Quick

See the second runner in this field for same sire info; this colt's dam won 1 of 9 races and 46K; winning siblings include 20K earner Percy Jackson; the trainer has enjoyed a solid meet including success with first timers.

Hottap

Offspring of Tapit, who won a G1 and 557K, are 64 for 481 as far as winning their first assignment; the dam was a G3 winner who captured 254K; this is her only foal to make it to the starting gate.

Alzanbaq

Note distinct improvement to the latest gate breeze; his sire won multiple G1s and 3.63 million; progeny of Harlan's Holiday have won 71 out of 503 initial races; the dam went zero for 3 and this is her sole foal to compete.-Jim Kachulis

Race 4

Wizardly

Maybe he just needed the last; like the series of drills since the return; show horse in the maiden breaker posted an 80 Beyer winning next out in an MSW; he can be closer up today if in the mood and would expect her to improve.

Upkeep

Trainer tinkers with the blinkers today; both wins came sans shades; he has to prove he can win on dirt; forced to steady two back, rider is off to a nice start here; look for this racer late if at all.

Barat

Gelding has bounced around with cheaper most of his career; it seems like the longer the better for him and he was only a brief threat last time; off the rail, would lean toward watching a local outing.

Moon Traveler

A quick turn on the investment two back is great for morale around the barn and he did break poorly in last; he handles any kind of going, this is his venue and Rocco was up for the last score; trainer has been rolling; respect.

For Goodness Sake

Put into the race early last time and it worked nicely; he drew off as he pleased but sometimes those races can be taxing too; if he was fully extended, then the margin could be a bit misleading; he does seemed to have turned the corner but never easy to beat winners right back.

Street Prancer

Game in the win in the off going; note place horse was nearly 7 clear but some may not have cared for the surface; the blood is there for him to have a solid career as kin Shopton Lane banked nearly $300K; trainer can keep them going good once they are in form.

Rankhasprivileges

Been on the stakes diet since the graduation party so this spot could suit him; hung wide in last, at least he got a feel of the surface; connections thought enough of him to ship across country for the CashCall and that kind of speaks volumes; don't ignore.

Golden Soul

The claim to fame so far has been the second in the Kentucky Derby; he has been solidly off form since; no speed, no asset; look for Borel to try to get him to settle, get inside, save ground, hope the race falls completely apart.-Brian Mulligan

Race 5

Sultry Cat

Half-brother to G3 winner Bittel Road (4-11, 336k, including 3 of 7 turf starts for 226k) was a sharp winner in his career debut and not going to be surprised if he's ready to show more while making his second start with Lasix; he should have every opportunity to negotiate a comfortable trip after breaking out of post one.

Hesinfront

He's by a top turf sire and the 83 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his latest performance is the best last race figure in this field; he's clearly a threat to walk away with top honors and Lanerie has won with 13 of 51 (25%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

My Afleet

Like to see the improvment he's shown since being placed over turf two starts ago, but his best effort doesn't appear to be up to the level of the top contenders in this one; looking toward others.

Shaun's Blessing

He attracted a good deal of wagering support in his career debut and he didn't disappoint his backers, but now he's meeting up with a tough group of N1X allowance rivals, and it might be worth noting the presence of Leparoux aboard another in here.

King Cyrus

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam was winless from two starts, and both of her starts were over turf; turf is a question, but this stakes placed colt obviosuly has some ability.

Mutasaawy

His complete lack of early speed can make things difficult for him, but he's capable of producing a strong stretch bid on his best day, and given some racing luck, he can find himself in the hunt through the final furlong.

Mister Blues

Something seemed to click with him in his latest start when surprising a field of maidens at over 17-1, but now he's meeting up with winners for the first time, and this isn't exactly a soft spot; lightly raced colt has mild appeal, but others entice more.

Woodfield Springs

Grade 3 stakes placed colt has run well in his three turf attempts and he's out of a multiple graded stakes winning dam who won 3 of 21 turf starts for 559k; Leparoux has won with 3 of 10 mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Xtra Luck

His first two turf attempts weren't bad performances, and perhaps he needed his latest start after taking some time off; this gelding is a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Tamborim (5-32, 196k, including 3 of 12 turf starts for 145k).

Mygalsal

Street Boss is a strong influence as a turf sire and this colt hasn't finished worse than third from six turf starts; this colt is eligible to be ready to take a step forward while making his second start as a 3-year-old.

Claymaker

His recent form has been much improved, and even though he's meeting up with winners for the first time, he commands some respect based on what he's shown us lately; this colt is a full to multiple stakes winner Alaura Michele (4-15, 205k, including 4 of 14 turf starts for 205k).

Bern' James Bern

He's two-for-two in the quality start department racing over turf and his early speed can help him clear some traffic before heading into the first turn; like to see what he did in his first start over this turf course in his latest outing.

Colonel Krenz

He needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to draw in and this will likely prove to be a tough assignment for him; he has the look of an outsider.

Bingo Kitten

He's another in here who has to worry about falling too far out of it early on, but two of his three turf starts have been fine performances, and this lightly raced colt may very well still have more to show us; runner up from latest won next out at AP on 6/21 going 1m over turf vs. N1X allowance rivals with a 79 Beyer.-Brian Pochman

Race 6

Skyway

Colt extended in the debut like this trip will be well within the scope; the pedigree is there for him to thrive as sibling Ava K. won 3 stakes and banked over $200K in an 8-race career; like fact he seems comfortable with the surface and considering there are several route winners in the tree so the trip should be there; respect.

Governmentshutdown

Robb hoping to get that deja vu feeling here; his racer Debt Ceiling won the Rolicking last year before cashing in this fray with a 73 Beyer; beaten by the repeater in the debut and the show horse in last cashed next out in a $101K stakes in England on 6/17; major player.

Draw Nigh

Professional in the debut, now must prove he can handle the dirt; looking at much more speed this time; and note he has not had a recorded drill since the last effort; not sold on him here.

Cinco Charlie

Bet like a good thing in the debut and he sure didn't disappoint; he has been on a steady diet of drills and they all have been solid of late; top last-race Beyer in the resume; he cost nearly $200K, can earn some more of that back here with a success today.

Silverhill

Could have sulked after breaking poorly but Texas-bred turned it on similar to the way the Spurs rolled in the NBA Finals; would have liked to have seen some local activity; note show horse in last was 5 clear; toss anything from a 29% barn at own cost.

Lucky Player

Took action and didn't falter; but he posted the second lowest Beyer in the field last time; racer did show the ability to pass horses and the show horse was by himself; probably needs to improve to repeat.-Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Good Lord

Exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when dominating up top; 4 of his 11 victories were accomplished on the lead including last a huge-wakeup call from his pre-rest form; 105 field-best Beyer was posted June, 2012, racing on the lead in a CT-7F-100K stakes win; is the one to catch and beat.

Laurie's Rocket

Finished 2nd in this event last year; like when runner's are setup for a certain spots like he is today; the winner and 7th-place finishers from last Beyered 101-87 in next-out OP-100K stakes and OPC wins; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 89 in a next-out FG-75K stakes victory; his CD dirt win was at 6.5F October, 2011, in an OPC; 1st-time Castanon riding who is 0-for-10 for Lukas since 2013.

Ride the Lightning

Late runner is a CD-1 Mile dirt graduate; has not raced this short of a distance since his 2nd-career start July, 2012; exits a career-low Beyer so this is an ambitious placement making the 2nd stakes start of career; the 3-back DQ'd winner scored next out in an OP-35K claimer with a 92 Beyer.

Positively

Ranked as an outsider stepping up to face Good Lord again who easily handled him 33 days ago at today's distance; he didn't fare much better 2 back when losing to Captain Genius; was sharp here in the fall posting a career-best Beyer at today's distance; off recent form would be a shocker.

Cozzetti

Winless streak is up to14 races; he's 0-for-8 on fast dirt; his last win was July, 2012, in an AP-Grade 3 turf stakes at 1M and 3-16ths; was favored over Good Lord in last but broke slowly then was a non-factor throughout; the 2-back winner repeated in a BEL-G3 with a 104 Beyer; the 3-back winner, runner-up and show finishers Beyered 104-99-98 in next-out G3-90K-79K stakes wins.

Z Rockstar

Eyes up 4 in a row making the transition nicely from Oklahoma-bred stakes wins into an open-CD OPC as a prep for this; has the right style to do some damage stalking Good Lord from the gate then getting 1st run on the closers; win rider from last sides with Pass the Dice today; the 4-back winner repeated in an OP-OPC with a 108 Beyer and recently won the G1-Foster at CD (101).

Captain Genius

Stretches out after being primed for this with much-tougher G3 company; just 1 race at 7F during career when way off his best form beating one Fla.-bred home; defeated the 3-back show finisher who Beyered 90 in a next-out PRM-OPC win.

Fordubai

Was no match for Pass the Dice in last but will be getting a 7-pound positive weight swing for his 2nd race off the 8-week layoff (a 1-for-11 win angle for his trainer); the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 93 in a next-out AP-OPC win; the 2-back wnner and show finisher Beyered 113-95 in next-out G3-and 100K stakes wins.

Pass the Dice

Last 4 races have all been rock solid losing a half length to the runner-up finisher who Beyered 93 in a next-out AP-OPC win; his 3-back CD-G2 race at 7F was sensational and would be hard to handle if could repeat that wet-track try; picks up 6 pounds off latest over Captain Genius; 1st time for this rider who had other options here.

River Bear

20 wins but has not done his best running on CD dirt (4-0-0-1); the latest loss represents a career-low Beyer; 55 days since badly overmatched finishing last vs. graded-stakes company; the 5th, 9th and 10th-place finishers from last Beyered 99-96-80 in next-out CD-Grade 3-alw. and PRX-100K stakes wins.-Art Gropper

Race 8

Guys Reward

Multiple graded stakes winner has proven that he's capable of producing a strong stretch bid on his best day, and when looking around at the early speed that is signed on in this race, he might find himself running at tired horses in deep stretch; note how well he's performed over the Churchill Downs turf.

Free World

Multiple stakes winner has basically been a machine in his last five starts while barely letting a horse get close to him and he might be ready to have a strong 4-year-old campaign; that said, this is his graded stakes debut, and this front running type is going to be in for an early battle with Silver Max.

Valentino Beauty

He's a head shy of being a G2 winner racing over turf, but he was beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his latest start, and his best effort doesn't appear to be up to the level of the top contenders in here; runner up from latest won next out at AP on 6/21 going 1 1/16m over turf in a 100k OPC with a 93 Beyer.

Nikki's Sandcastle

Tough veteran knows what the game is all about and there's a chance that he's going to like the way that this race shapes up; however, it does look like he'll have to see a number of these show up with less than their best to have a chance at the top spot; runner up from latest won next out at AP on 6/21 going 1 1/16m over turf in a 100k OPC with a 93 Beyer.

Silver Max

Grade 1 winner will be tough to tackle if he's ready to return to action running, but he will need to be careful to avoid an early speed duel with Free World; prior to running fourth in the BC Mile, he beat Wise Dan in a G1, and recorded a couple of graded stakes wins; third-place finisher from latest won next out at BHP on 11/29 going 1 1/16m over turf in a G2 with a 99 Beyer.

Villandry

He deserves a lot of credit for the way that he's performed in his seven turf starts, and he's been at his best over this turf course, but this is a very tough group of turf milers that he's meeting up with.

Joha

He's been a very good performer in his career, and he even has a G1 win to boast, but he will have to be ready to run the race of his life if he's planning on seeing his number posted on top after this one is run.

Regally Ready

Have to respect the form that he's shown since being stretched out in distance seven starts ago, and this G1 winner has won 5 of 7 starts over the Churchill Downs turf course; look for him to fall right in behind Silver Max and Free World soon after the start, and he might find himself in perfect position to go after those two turning for home.-Brian Pochman

Race 10

Sistas Stroll

Stroll 7 for 47 with first-time grass performers; sire took 7 of 16, won a G1, all on grass, banked nearly $800K; dam was unraced; lone half sis took one dirt sprint; respect everything from this barn.

Cash in My Pocket

Hung a bit wide in last and she just never got rolling; stakes winning 8 for 29 dam earned over $350K, won several times on grass; both siblings won; kin Dalkeith Ridge cashed once on grass, banked nearly $140K; would not be shocked if she rebounds in a big way.

Tempers Flair

Been given time since educational debut; SW 2 for 4 dam earned over $70K, was grass only; the half sis to win took one dirt sprint; nothing wrong with the spacing of the drills; has some things to iron out.

Jeweliana

Smart Strike about 14% with firsters in a 822-runner sample, about 12% with first-time turfers in a 640-runner grid; sire won 6 of 8, a Grade 1, over $330K, never turfed; Grade 2 winning 7 for 15 dam earned nearly $500K, won 6 times on grass; lone 1 for 12 half sis won on grass; soph looks fit enough.

Sedona Gal

At least she got a feel of the course; she did show a bit of speed out West; backers can point to the fact that although there is no turf success in the tree, kin Mr. Whitestone banked over $450K; a slice may be the ceiling.

Poster Girl

She has had her chances and a mishap like what happened last time can leave scars; there is turf success in the tree in the form of War Officer, who banked over $100K; lean toward watching a local outing.

Hard Night's Day

Miss has flashed talent and has worked well here; 3 for 11 dam was grass only, earned about 20 grand; 2 of 4 sibs won; neither cashed on grass, one banked $125K; tactical speed should give her first run on the deep closers.

Engaginglee

Maybe she just needed the last; love the spacing of the drills accentuated by the best of 29 spin last Sunday; 15 for 60 dam earned over $150K, won once on turf; lone one for 12 sibling cashed on turf; can't fault those that give her another shot at glory.

Lonelily (IRE)

Medaglia d'Oro about 10% with debuters in a 423-runner study, about 11% with first-time turfers in a 300-horse sample; sire was 2nd in only juvenile out beaten just over 2 at TP with a 81 Beyer, went on to earn over $5.7 million, never turfed; 2 for 10 dam was dirt sprint only; this is her first to race; cut out to run, could need experience.

Candy Crush

Even after the neck beat, fans didn't embrace to the tune of 6-1 and they were right; show horse in last took a MSW and the winner repeated in an N1X spot; positive spot on bottom side is Seruni, who won over $350K and handled grass; she is back on the preferred surface.

Holiday Stroll

She could flash more speed on the stretch out; turf only 2 for 9 dam earned over $50K; lone full sister Holiday Drama won twice on grass, banked $40K; miss was in a bit tight in the debut, could move forward.

Bubbles and Babies

Miss can be her own worst enemy since she has limited speed; Grade 1 winning 2 for 10 dam earned over $750K, won on grass once; this is her first to race; the hotter the pace the better for this miss.

Twenty in One

Off fence, rates long look if she suits up; dam was 0 for 7; several multiple race winners in the tree including near $400K earner Terrific Storm; winner of last repeated in an N1X with an 81 Beyer;

The Royal Way

Was out in post 11 and never raised a gallop; dam out of the money twice; all 3 siblings are non winners; tough to pull the trigger off dull opener.

Malhama

Maybe she just wanted grass all along; dam was unraced; lone half bro lost 6 times; like the way she engaged at the top of the lane; a player if she gets a chance to suit up.

Ventoux

Youngster appears to be improving hourly; there is a double turf winner in the family; should be right there when the smoke clears provided the scratches are kind.

Songoficeandfire

Like the way she was inching toward the winner in a clever debut; 4 for 4 Group 1 winning dam banked over $200K, adored grass; family includes Group 2 winner and grass performer Antonius Pius, who banked over $550K; this gal can run some.-Brian Mulligan