Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for June 27, 2014

Race 2

Teller Terri

Half-sister to G3 winner Magic Broomstick (8-16, 484k, including 5 of 11 turf starts for 283k) is capable in a spot like this one her best day, and her latest start might be better than it looks on paper when considering how slow the early pace was; have to respect her chances with Lanerie aboard.

Double Ante

Her latest start was below par and it might be worth noting the presence of Bridgmohan aboard another in here; that said, you only have to go back two starts to find a race that is strong enough to make her a player in this spot; mixed signals.

Fine Lookin Lady

She's winless in her last 13 starts going back through 2013 and she's going to need to really step it up over what she's been doing lately in order to prove to be a player; it is interesting to see that she's in a new barn and that they see fit to call upon Leparoux.

Get Real

Her career best Beyer Speed Figure was earned racing over a synthetic surface but her turf form hasn't been all bad and she's making her first start for the Lovell barn after a claim; Bridgmohan has been a go-to rider for this outfit over the years.

Grandiose Tactics

She's going after her first turf victory but her last two turf attempts were solid performances and this is only her second turf start since moving into this high win percentage barn; not going to argue with anyone for looking favorably in this direction.

St. Borealis

The drop in class might be exactly what this miss is looking for and she shows up for a barn that has been hitting at a 27% clip in 2014; she has to avoid falling too far out of it through the opening stages, but she commands respect as a contender.

With Excellence

She's the only one in here who can boast of having seven wins next to her name but all of those wins have been earned racing over dirt; her turf form has not been strong enough to help give her a competitive look against these.

Annabird

She looks like she's going to appreciate getting back over turf and her latest effort over a sloppy main track can serve as a useful conditioner for this; she might be able to prove to be a little bit of a price player. - Brian Pochman

Race 3

Royal Warrior

Steps back up to the MSW ranks while stretching out to the Derby trip in his first start of the year; gelding has breezed ok of late for this one and he loves making one run so the added trip shouldn't hurt, but he has absolutely no early foot whatsoever and that could leave him with a lot to do late; prefer others on the win end.

Northeast Bound

Switches surfaces while stretching out after his second straight third place finish on the local sod; he's run just once on dirt and that came in his debut run so given that he's kin to a couple of main track winners maybe he deserves another crack over the footing; another with little early lick he could use some pace help in front of him, but he should be rolling in the lane.

C J's Awesome

Removes the hood for the surface switch after tiring from his pace efforts as the chalk on the local lawn; colt earned a field best number when holding second money at a shorter trip in his local debut so expect he'll appreciate the return to this footing and he does figure to have things his own way on the front end in this spot; his sire was a Breeders Cup Classic winner at today's trip over this track so maybe with a soft top he's able to keep on going; they'll have him to catch and beat.

De Facto

Gets another new pilot who has gotten off to a solid start here while trying the main track for the initial time; dam was a 4 time main track winner and she dropped 3 foals who won over it but this guy hasn't shown too much of yet and the barn has been blanked recently with runners going turf to dirt.

Jacob's Here

Proved no match for the runaway winner when unveiling at 9 panels here last month but after breaking slowly, wasn't that far off the rest; maybe the new hood helps and he is out of a hard hitting, SW dam who took 6 routes and banked over 515K so wouldn't be surprised if he were to improve quite a bit with the initial experience behind him.

Proud Maxx

Outside drawn gelding improved some when dropped in for a tag a couple of starts back and now the beaten last out chalk will get back in with MSWs; he'll try 10 panels today but there's not much to suggest he's going to handle it; like the fact he was able to stay closer early last time, though he did still come up significantly short of the open lengths winner. - Steve Grabowski

Race 4

Doc Almon

Gelding comes off the even try when protected in last; inside again, he should sit a nice stalk and rally trip; show horse in the last win cashed next out in an N1X with an 80 Beyer; the trip will be everything today.

Finding Candy

Have always loved this kind of a class jump especially when the ploy comes from a sharp barn and 36% is ultra sharp; runner can win fairly close up or from midpack; 5/4 winner won 2 starters back to back since; look out.

Double Rah Rah

Proven for the price, gelding was right there at the top of the lane last time but wilted a bit; he's never been a win machine, check out the 14 slices; one angle to consider: he won on the turf to dirt sprint cutback last year and also on the route to sprint ploy here in May; interesting.

Nicklaus Way

Nearly lit up the tote at 20-1 for this pilot last year; only a brief threat from the fence in last and not really sure this is his premier distance; wraps re-added last time; look for him late if at all.

Browneyed Bachelor

Another that kind of lacks the killer instinct; note the 16 nibbles; at least he kept legs moving in the move last Saturday and he has been around the wire for the most part since last November; a slice again could be the ceiling.

Platitude

Only one real solid effort for this barn since the claim; hung wide in last pair, he did catch fast splits in last; with a more moderate pace, runner could maintain contact; tough to pull the trigger after the last fiasco.

Bernie the Maestro

Any horse that can win 29% of his starts is a friend of mine; in the exacta in 9 of 11 at this distance and he just was a bit tired in last; note he won in the last cut back situation in February; can't fault those that project a peak performance. - Brian Mulligan

Race 5

Cora Mesa

She earned identical Beyers in the last pair, a personal best; was a clear-cut second at the course and distance 2 weeks ago but faces several newcomers today; remains a difficult call from the fence.

Precocious Kitty

Middle moved into fair fractions in her local debut before fading; her sire won multiple G1 stakes and 2.76 million; the dam won 3 of 9 attempts and 70K; there are no winning siblings to mention; can focus now with equipment change.

Magical Belle

Newcomer hails from Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Unbridled's Song who banked 1.31 million (his progeny have won 123 out of 874 initial attempts); the dam won 6 of 22 and 605K; sib to 1.85K earner Unrivaled Belle who scored at the G1 level.

Hiddai

Even though she showed much improved early speed in her last assignment, she cannot be endorsed for the top spot until more endurance is shown; latest half-mile breeze was fair but will likely prove insufficient.

Terms of Success

Upbeat nature to this month's work tab; her sire won 2 of 13 and 92K (descendants of Southern Success have won 1 of 21 debuts); the mom won 4 of 23 and 70K; among the winning siblings is 35K earner Midas Terms.

Devilish Reason

Returns to the main oval after showing no enthusiasm over the turf earlier this month; the effort 2 back was solid but against claiming stock and it was a race which featured a pedestrian pace; will be chasing swifter fractions today.

Smart Ashley

Keeps earning checks but strictly on the grass course; beaten favorite has a stalking style that fits this race, however, and the latest half-mile breeze was one of her best; can awaken with the surface switch.

You Make Me Sing

In need of her last try, she checked in a respectable fourth despite a difficult trip; this clear outside post should help her cause today and the removal of blinkers last time out obviously moved her forward; legitimate money chances. - Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Emmy Who

Won a key race defeating the show and 4th-place finishers from last; they posted 65-63 Beyer speed figures in next-out BTP-allowance and MNR-15K-claiming wins; her 2-for-7 turf record is noted but her last 3 races on the lawn were all poor; the 3-back winner repeated in a CD-16K claimer with a 65 Beyer.

Luce Mia

Is still seeking the right level 7 races after the non-winners of 2 claiming score; the 3-back winner took her next 2 TAM optional-claiming-starter alw. starts with 89-84 Beyers; in her CD-fall starter alw. turf losses she rallied well to land in the trifecta and superfecta; both wins were at shorter; she middle moved in latest which suggests less distance may be needed to see best form again.

Tellalittlesecret

11 weeks away since handled by similar on synthetic; the rematch moved to turf favors this one noting her only CD grass attempt was her last start on the turf last fall which was a win; beat Luce Mia 3-back as the winner Beyered 89-84 in 2 next-out TAM wins.

Wish Keeper

Class tested here; 1-race winner exits non-winners of 2 claimers to face multiple winners; projects to be the best inside speed but has Cherokee Callie and On the Same Page to fend off early then the closers late; would be a shocker.

Lady Susan

Exits her lowest Beyer since December, 2012; she hasn't won on dirt yet so willing to forgive the favored loss 3 weeks ago; her 2-back turf start was very sharp finishing 2nd best to the winner who made it 5 in row in a PRX-starter handicap next out with an 81 Beyer.

Jane's Heir

Horse for the course is 2-for-2 on the CD green; the new barn found her best surface again in last rallying strongly to win at shorter; the added yardage here is a plus; the 4-back winner was on her way to 5 in a row; seems set to avenge the loss to Lady Susan 3-back; the one to beat.

Bocce

Gets in with her lightest-weight assignment ever 1st time for an apprentice who began 3-for-7 at CD this meet; her IND turf win was fresh with 73 days away; today has 89 days to regroup for her 1st CD-grass start racing for an 11%-winning fresh trainer; the 4-back winner repeated in a MNR alw. with a 74 Beyer.

You're too Wild

Is 1-for-11 with blinkers on; the hood stays on for this; the 3-for-31 turf record is not very enticing while in with her lightest-weight assignment since June, 2010; the 3-back winner repeated in a MNR-10K claimer with a 59 Beyer; others appeal more.

Cherokee Callie

Sire is 7-for-113 (6%) with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of an 0-for-1 grass dam; projects as the main speed in this event with On the Same Page likely breathing down her neck from the bell; view as a pace presence for part.

On the Same Page

Projects to break sharply from the outside then race on or near the lead; 1st start of the year on FG dirt represents a field-best Beyer; won 2 of last 3 on grass so apparently she can run on anything and win; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 72 in a next-out MNR alw. win; keeps the sizzling-CD-35%-winning jockey-trainer combo; the pick.

Majestic Shoes

Main Track Only entry with up-and-down recent form; has just 1 loss on CD dirt and that was on a wet track; gets class relief off the stakes loss; on a sloppy track 2 back defeated the runner-up finisher who Beyered 74 in a next-out PID-alw. win.

Little Face

MTO exits a key-race best-last-race Beyer defeating the runner-up and 4th-place finishers from last; they Beyered 69-54 in next-out CD-10K-claiming and BTP-starter alw. wins; 34%-winning fresh trainer stops any thinking that she might not be ready for best following the 48-day absence. - Art Gropper

Race 8

Pappascat

Two of her last three starts have been sharp winning performances, and if she runs the way she did when last seen racing over this turf course, she'll be tough to tackle; she should have every opportunity to negotiate a comfortable trip after breaking from a favorable rail post.

Run a Risk

Stakes placed mare is clearly capable of better than what she's shown in her three starts this year and feel that this is the first time this year that she's been in a good spot; she tried a G2 off a layoff three back, then a turf sprint, and she stayed in an off-the-turf event in her latest outing.

Honey Lake

She looks like she's in decent form entering this race but she might prefer more distance to work with than today's 1 1/16m assignment offers; she might be forwadly placed early on, but going to look for others to have more to offer through the lane.

Proenza

Her best effort doesn't quite measure up to the top contenders in here and her lack of early speed makes her a candidate to be outrun every step of the way; she has the look of an outsider.

Sky Girl

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and dam was winless from eight starts, and she didn't make a turf start; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Ind on 6/11 going 6f vs. 50k OPC's with a 92 Beyer; G3 winner makes her turf debut for a strong turf barn.

Via Villaggio

She hasn't been at her best in six turf starts prior to this, but she has strong overall form and she's out of a G2 winning dam who won 6 of 18 starts for 319k, including 2 of 8 turf starts for 220k; runner up from latest won next out at AP on 5/24 going 1 1/8m in a G3 with a 94 Beyer.

Cry War Eagle

She's another who is seeking her first victory over turf, and if nothing else, she appears to be well meant in her first start of 2014 while getting a rider switch to Leparoux; if her recent workouts are any indication, then she's ready for her return to action.

Cat Five' O

Minor stakes winner has been at her best racing over dirt in her career and her two turf starts haven't been anywhere near strong enough to suggest that she can make some noise in this spot; willing to upgrade her chances a little if this race has to be moved to the main track; winner from latest won next out at RP on 11/1 going 6 1/2f vs. 35k OPC's with an 81 Beyer.

Zero Game (IRE)

High Chaparral has been a fine influence as a turf sire and this looks like a decent spot for this filly to make her first start for the McKeever barn; if she can remember what she did in her first start in America, she can have a say in the outcome, and like to see Bridgmohan taking over. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Back Off Buddy

Colt has the 2 races to draw from but can't fault those that are a bit gun shy with the double chalk flop staring them in the face; he was troubled in last and rider has had good success for Gorder; winner of the 2014 opener won a pair of $100K stakes since; clever barn due to get rolling.

Otis My Man

Clever win at the demanding distance last time but gelding is looking at more speed here; fit enough to drill a couple of times since the last win; would expect him to come from a bit off the pace this time; probably needs to improve to repeat.

Relentless Spirit

Had valid excuse of the mud in the debut but the rest of the efforts are solid; he seems comfortable with the surface and was well clear of the 4th horse in last; colt fits the conditions nicely and he has a right to have a nice career as kin to double Grade 3 winner and near $400K earner Heart Ashley.

Belvin

Pushed into the San Vicente last year after the maiden breaker and has not been able to close the deal since; been a bad actor at the gate in his career and that has to be addressed; 3rd and 4th finishers in last won at this level next out with 78 and 100 Beyers respectively; has some things to iron out.

Talon's of Tuscany

Never simple to beat winners right back especially at a brand new distance; the route may have helped the stamina though; 3/20 winner took a $50K shore optional by nearly 18 lengths on a fast track, and then was 2nd a half in a $30K optional there with a 93 Beyer; best of 55 bullet locked and loaded; don't ignore.

Eastside Storm

Beat the smallish field at Tampa but can back to earth in a thud; finally off the rail, could see him sitting a decent stalk and pounce trip; fresh Lasix and third new pilot today; and he could mature with class as kin to over $250K earner and SW Courageous Act.

One Tango Charlie

Not thrilled with the defeat vs. maiden claimers; colt has much more speed than he just flashed; the way he drew away in last suggest this distance is of no concern; can't be dismissed.

Mysterious Circle

Tracked slow splits in the mile maiden breaker; last race was the best vs. winners but he didn't make any rival afraid; out of the money in both sprints; not seeing it.

Mean Marine

Dead last when beaten over 13 the last time at this level; he has the excuse of the slop last time but he has been handled easily by a couple of today's foes; not sure the mean streak will do it.

Mio d'Oro

It took him time to figure it out but the first experience vs. winners really helped him; note show horse in last was over 5 clear; drawn right where rider does not have to gun at all costs but can see how the race is developing; 2/2 winner took a $25K optional, then was 3rd beaten over 4 by Moonshine Mullin, who proved it was no fluke by taking the Foster on 6/14 with a 101 Beyer; he showed his grit coming back on in the maiden breaker and the blood is there as kin to Grade 1 winner and near $450K player Karlovy Vary; could be long gone. - Brian Mulligan

Race 10

Sconnie Nation

With the return to the claiming realm, this is an interesting item; he chased solid fractions when facing better stock recently and should be near an easier tempo today; legitimate contender if not shuffled back at a critical point.

Stormy Dan

Held very well in his local debut when narrowly outfinished by Key for Success; latest workout suggests he can move forward even further today if not challenged in the backstretch run; worth some follow-up if the price is right.

Buck Magic

Deceptive effort on the green a month ago when losing a ton of ground; both starts at this oval were of interest as well including a fair fourth at the G2 level; should be primed and ready for this assignment and can prove to be the right value play.

Retrenchment

Nowhere in that maiden voyage after breaking slowest of all; his sire won 1 of 2 and 33K while the dam involved never competed; winning siblings include 61K earner Whiskey Double; should show much more vs. these lads.

Key for Success

Bold try recently at huge odds; his sire won 6 of 12 and 1.09 million while the dam scored in 6 of 36 appearances earning 143K; there are no winning siblings to mention; obvious true contender if he can surpass the latest venture.

American Empire

Firster was sired by multiple G1 winner Empire Maker who notched 1.98 million and whose descendants have won 11 percent of their initial attempts; the dam never raced; sib to 12K earner Musaiter.

Next in Line

Adds blinkers after turning in a pair of solid placings against lesser company; began his career at the course and distance and that was a decent showing as well considering he spotted the field several lengths in the early stages; consider.

Wine Scholar

Did not threaten earlier this month when starting his racing career on the turf; his sire won 6 of 8 races and 337K while the mom was without a victory in 7 tries; sib to 69K earner Royal Start; latest gate breeze and blinker addition can help matters.

Panama Will

Owns one of the better first gears in this line-up; has been breezing fairly well for this return and will prove a major threat if on or near a soft early tempo today; switches to an apprentice who has done very well with a limited number of mounts.

Saint Dermot

Same story, same race as Wine Scholar where he showed no firepower in his grass debut; his sire won the Breeders' Cup Classic and 3.44 million; the dam won 4 of 17 and 359K; sib to 170K earner Redverse; sudden reversal is possible. - Jim Kachulis