Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for June 26, 2014

Race 1

Indygo Star

The only firster in this field was sired by G3 type Indygo Shiner who banked 444K and whose offspring have won 10 out of 116 debuts; the dam involved won 1 of 8 attempts and 26K; this is her only foal to start; mild breeze pattern of late.

Steel Cut

After a bold first run when claimed, she aimed too high in that second outing; her sire won a G3 and 187K overall while the dam never competed; among the winning siblings is 105K earner Bondsteel; appears well-spotted today.

Maybe Lily

The combination of the third start back angle and the drop in company can help with her endurance levels here; she tries yet another different rider though and has to try to establish an unpressured early advantage; tough call.

Princess Mon

Turned in a fine try in her maiden voyage last month while the 3 to 2 favorite; her sire won multiple G3s and 625K while the dam never raced; there are no winning siblings to mention; must avoid another slow getaway in order to have a realistic chance.

Utcha

Lost to Princess Mon but did more of the grueling pacesetting work that day; her sire was unraced while the dam went 2 for 27 lifetime earning 33K; this is her only foal to compete; the betting value will certainly be there.

Little Gidding

Little chance in her Kentucky debut when facing better stock and being forced to race on an extra-wide path; her sire was a multiple G1 router who amassed 2.28 million; the dam won 3 of 27 and 68K; this is her only foal to start; should upgrade.

Nspeightofvickie

Has some gate speed in her favor and the most recent blowout is encouraging as well; the key to her chances is whether she can clear the inside speed or be caught up in a demanding duel with Steel Cut and Maybe Lily; worth consideration.

Distinct Diva

Did not fare well at Gulfstream when going to post at huge odds yet her latest a.m. move was very strong; the sire won a G3 and 447K while the dam won 4 of 7 attempts and 241K; sib to 175K earner Mazengah; puzzling item. - Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Grip Hands

Flint has strong stats in all the relevant categories but this is a 6-year-old that has never won going short and four of his five wins came on synthetic surfaces so it seems like an odd spot for him; nonetheless, he did work a sharp four furlongs June 12, and most of the ones he's facing seem a bit suspect running on grass; consider for the exotics.

The Absolute One

First start for Amoss was a good one and considering he claimed him for $25K two back the drop into a $40K claimer makes sense; he hasn't been worse than third in four starts on the lawn and he's also pretty good on the main track so he won't mind if it gets washed off; horse he edged in his latest earned a 90 Beyer Speed Figure when he came back to finish second in a state-bred allowance race at Monmouth last Sat.; the pick.

Phish Fan

He would have to be given a big shot to win this if it moves to the main track but he faded badly in both of his races on grass; horse that finished second in his latest won a $50K n/w/3 with a 79 Beyer Speed Figure in his next start at Arlington; it's possible this guy didn't care for the soft conditions in his latest but he also didn't hang around very long when he ran over firm footing the first time he tried grass; prefer others.

Wild Target

Lone try on the lawn wasn't stellar but he was going around two turns and all five of his wins have come sprinting so maybe we shouldn't hold it against him; he's also a half to 3-time turf winner Arrow Lake so it's also too early to give up on him; he cuts back to a sprint after setting the pace and holding on fairly well in a one-turn mile in his latest; he's versatile enough and could get a nice trip from a stalking position; consider for the exotics.

Sasueno

Lone try on turf wasn't that bad considering he was going long in just his second start and he has turned out to be strictly a sprinter; he's also a sib to 3-time turf winner Zane so he might be okay with the surface switch; his tough loss two back in a super key race - 5 next-out winners- was elevated when Exploring won his next two at Monmouth in a $40K claimer and $30K optional race with 90 & 94 Beyers; some things to like.

Lil Posh

Indiana-bred has a win and a third in two starts at the distance but he's been a pretty dull horse lately and he would need to post a career-best Beyer Speed Figure to make an impact; he led all the way in his lone win in 33 starts but it is hard to see him clearing from his outside post with all of the speed drawn inside of him; passing. - Randy Goulding

Race 4

Revolver

High-caliber workout only 8 days ago; his sire won a G2 and 360K (offspring of Tale of the Cat have won 160 out of 957 debuts); the dam won 1 of 5 attempts and 16K; among the winning siblings is 33K earner J Jett.

Solrac

Modest work tab for his first run; his sire is multiple G1 victor Einstein who banked 2.94 million; his progeny are 3 for 17 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 2 of 37 and 40K; among the winning sibs is 19K earner Regal Sun.

Rod McLeod

Steady breeze pattern for this son of Roman Ruler who won 1.22 million including G1 success; his descendants are 37 for 281 in the first time victorious department; the dam won 4 of 16 and 283K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Codasco

Sired by G3 type Yesbyjimminy who netted 586 and whose offspring have won 3 of 22 initial attempts; the dam never competed; among the winning siblings is 379K bankroller La Chica Sensual.

Ascanius

Note the fine gate breeze on the morning of 6/17; his sire won 3 of 23 races and 734K; descendants of Aeneas have scored in 4 of 66 debuts; the mom won 3 of 7 and 285K; winning siblings include 97K earner Noticin' You.

Gasupthejet

A long set of half-mile drills to consider; his sire won 2 of 4 races and 85K; progeny of Mr. Sekiguchi have scored in 4 of 54 initial tries; the dam won 7 of 28 and 248K; winning sibs include 39K earner Lady Van.

Ride n' Reel

Never got involved first time out but was only 5 to 1 that day; his undefeated sire won multiple G1s and 749K ; the dam won multiple G3s and 1.78 million; among the winning siblings is 31K earner Gracious.

Boomshakalaka

Progeny of Sky Mesa, who won 3 of 6 and 633 including a G1 tally, have scored in 53 out of 396 debuts; the dam won 5 of 25 and 297K; winning siblings include 187K earner Black Bear whose specialty was dirt sprints. - Jim Kachulis

Race 5

Skittle Bomb

She's been away since she beat a weak field of straight maidens here Nov. 30 and the past five years Arnold is just 8 percent with horses coming back from a layoff of 180 days or more so she might need one; including Lady Marian, only three horses she beat last time have won since and the other two won for $15K and $7.5K; lone sib to race won a couple of races in Japan and earned over $500K; we're still going to pass.

Taketheodds

Appeared to be full of run while bottled up behind horses and when the rail opened up at the top of the stretch she burst through to take complete control of the race in an impressive performance; the Beyer Speed Figure came back pretty good, too; just a single winner among her 4 siblings but she is out of a Grade 2 route-winning mare so the future could be bright and she shouldn't have any trouble handling the extra furlong; the pick.

Assured

Her best race was in a one-turn mile at Belmont in just her second start and she could be ready for a peak effort in the third start of her current form cycle; she was coming off a pretty long layoff when she tired going 1 1/8 miles on Polytrack April 13 and she got hung out pretty wide in her latest here; horse that finished third in her latest won a first-level allowance race on the local turf course with a 78 Beyer Speed Figure June 13; well-bred filly will could improve while wearing blinkers for the first time; contender.

Homesick Angel

First foal out of a $164K stakes-winning mare that only won sprinting has decent speed and will try and carry it a middle distance for the first time; horse that won her latest placed in the Grade 2 Golden Rod here last year so it was a tough spot and she probably needed the race; she could move forward in her second start back but her Beyer Speed Figures come up a bit light; she seems honest enough and her two best races were at 7-furlongs, so you might want to include her in the exotics.

Lady Marian

Second from Arnold had to drop into a maiden claiming race to get it done and the Beyer Speed Figure came back pretty low; blinkers go on and Arnold has solid recent stats with horses wearing them for the first time; it's also encouraging to see Leparoux keep the faith; nonetheless, she is going to need substantial improvement to contend here; prefer others.

Judy Judy Judy

Easy to forgive her for not firing on Polytrack when she debuted at Keeneland in April and she rebounded with a strong effort to win a straight maiden race in her second start here; facing winners and stretching out for the first time isn't easy but she's a half to $145K route stakes winner Passive Income so the breeding is there; the past five years McPeek has a 13 percent strike rate with horses going long the first time; consider for the exotics.

Graceful Rage

She's the most experienced horse in the field and she is coming off a solid second in a first-level allowance race at Prairie Meadows where she earned her career-best Beyer Speed Figure; horse that beat her came back to finish second in a $25K optional race at PrM with a 73 Beyer; this gal broke her maiden here and seems to be heading in a positive direction right now; the favorite looks pretty tough and she looks like another exotics possibility. - Randy Goulding

Race 6

Century Gold

Stretches out for his second start of the year after offering little against cheaper in his sprint return from a year on the shelf; it's been a while since he's run a number that would be good enough to step with some of these; have to pass on this 8 year old.

Mr. Jeeves

Tries the lawn for the first time in a long while after being given time off his first start of the season; he has beaten better on the lawn, but don't think he's as good as he was when he did that; prefer to back others on the win end.

Flattermejim

Thrice beaten chalk gets back to the lawn after proving no match for the top 2 finishers in the local mud; gelding ran pretty well on the local green in his prior couple of starts and does own 3 overall turf scores; he's burned plenty of money of late, but on his best they'll have him to beat.

Aroney

Tries better in his first start off the barn's claim after besting just one runner in the local slop late last month; maybe the return to the lawn gets him going, but off his recent efforts he looks to have his work cut out for him today; looking elsewhere.

Get in Line

Drops after encountering some early trouble in his return from a brief freshening; 4 year old was solid on the lawn this winter in Florida, but hasn't looked particularly sharp after being taken by this little known outfit at Keeneland in the early spring; maybe a clean break helps bring out some of his early foot, but it won't be an easy task today.

Gran Chat

Chased the leaders but had little left to factor late in his return to the lawn against cheaper last time; these are tougher and this gelding has yet to give any indication that the lawn is what he really wants; looms another long price.

Ridge City

Failed to get involved at this trip and level while beating just one runner home last month; it's been some time since he's run a number that would make him a big threat in this spot but his last was an improvement and he will shed some weight with a hot bug named.

Sky Alert

Steps out of the open claiming ranks for his return to the green after finishing off the board in his last 2 over the local main track; gelding has yet to try the local sod, but he has been right there at the finish in each of his last 3 on the green; maybe for a minor share at a price.

Start Up

Showed solid early foot before fading in his Gulfstream finale; he'll return to the level of his most recent score 3 starts back and there's not a lot of speed signed on here so maybe he's afforded a more beneficial trip in his local debut; consider.

Perfectly At Home

Outside drawn gelding switches surfaces for the rise back to this level after getting beaten by one of these from the inside draw on the main track; late runner was solid on the lawn last summer and maybe the return to the footing helps, but he won't have it easy from a pace standpoint here.

Adulare

MTO makes his first start for a barn that excels with this type right back; gelding is a 3 time local winner and he's got the early foot to be involved from the bell; with a couple of wet track scores in him he figures to be pretty tough if the rains come. - Steve Grabowski

Race 7

More Than Even

Mixed reviews from her 4 races in 2014 with 2 wins and 2 dull efforts including latest when favored; which filly shows up for this?; her career-best Beyer speed figure was racing right on the lead but her last 2 wins were via stalking trips and has a good target today with the speedy Liberate entered; projects to save ground from right off the lead then make one run.

She's Got Swag

Looks like the same trip today as last when stalking Liberated then hopes to get 1st run on the closers; the winner from last ran right by her but she defeated a few of these; in 2014 has been a new filly going 4-for-4 in exacta finishes winning twice at today's distance; hard to leave out.

Ocean Bertie

Her last 2 races at today's distance on dirt are both wins; was claimed off a best-last-race Beyer loving the wet track she also performs well on fast; high-percentage fresh trainer also does very well 1st off the purchase; last looks better since the show finisher Beyered 69 in a next-out IND-optional-claiming win.

Liberated

The one to catch again but stamina is the issue; has been way off best form in 2014 ending 2013 with a field-best Beyer speed figure in a CD-1-Mile dirt win; has a lot of ground to make up on She's Got Swag who easily handled her in last; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 97 in a next-out CD-Grade 2 stakes win; know her early but unsure about late.

Zenzara

Would love a wet-main track where both wins occurred; same owner/different trainer folliowing the long layoff; the barn is superb 27% winners with extended absentees; the 2-back winner repeated in a MTH-66K event with an 83 Beyer; the 3-back runner-up posted an 89 speed figure in her next-out SAR-100K stakes win; scary if ready.

Branding

Fresh-SA winner to graduate in January, 2013; she also posted a 3-back off-the-bench win which why latest-fresh loss was so disappointing; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 92 in a next-out GG-OPC win; 33 days away for a high-pencentage fresh trainer.

Handmade

Only 3-year-old in the field was an odds-on CD winner at shorter; the main issue are the final yards here as twice at 1M and 1-16th she was outfinished in deep stretch; last looks better since the show finisher Beyered 70 in a next-out OPC win; she defeated the show finisher in her March-runner-up finish; that one Beyered 78-73 in 2 next-out OPC wins. - Art Gropper

Race 8

Courageous Julie

Switches surfaces for another shot at this level and will get a weight break with the double bug getting aboard; filly draws inside so maybe that helps her secure a decent spot early and she was in against some decent ones the last couple of times she tried the main track; contender.

Streethomealabama

Earned a career best number when second at the level in her local return from the freshening, but she did catch slop that day while getting hot fractions in front of her in that one turn mile; filly returned to work ok for barn that does a solid job with its runners second back from the break; she's settled for a lot of minor awards and may need some help in front of her so we'd try to beat her on the win end.

Storm Rush

Last our graduate needed the drop to the restricted ranks to break her maiden against a weak bunch at Indiana Downs; she'll try winners for the first time today and has yet to run particularly fast so she doesn't look to be a very good fit today; have to side against the repeat.

Another Blue

She's another making her first start with winners here after being given some extra time off the maiden score with claimers; interesting to see the equipment change off a successful run, but maybe she's more involved early and the new outfit excels with runners going first off their claim; she's been working quite well of late for this; consider.

Soul Title

Didn't do much in either start with winners and was beaten home by some of these in the slop last time; she's bred to handle 2 turns so maybe today's new configuration helps her get better, but she'll need to in order to have a say in the outcome here.

Valala

Got her nose down to beat maidens first out and now she'll tackle winners with a sharp breeze in tow; barn is going well here and they do well with stretchouts; given her male pedigree influences it wouldn't be much of a surprise to see her take a big step forward here, but it is a long way from the 5 1/2 panels of her maiden score to today's trip.

Annuity

Stretches back out after tiring from her early efforts in her first crack with allowance runners; there's not a whole bunch of lick in here so she figures to be prominent from the bell a and her maiden score did come routing; concern is that she hasn't run very fast outside of Arkansas.

She's Justified

Took a big step forward when cut back to one turn in the slop late last month while holding well from a wide spot; gray maybe she'll go better if they take hold of her from the bell this time and she did break her maiden at 2 turns on the lawn; worth a look.

Pretty Fancy

Earned a big number when second while trying dirt for the first time here last month; she'll stretch back out to 2 turns for this one and despite her pedigree she didn't do much in her 2 tries at it over other types of footing; still, she'll lure Leparoux and does have a right to keep getting better second time over this surface.

Run Hide My Girl

Outside drawn filly switches surfaces while being offered for the optional tag on the rise to this level; she did score at this trip when in against limited winners 2 back but now she'll move to a tougher drawn against a tougher set; have to side with others on the win end. - Steve Grabowski

Race 9

Squall King

Full brother to G1 stakes placed Finnegan's Wake (2-15, 431k over turf) sheds blinkers for this and the drop to the 50-40k N2L claiming level might be just what he needs; have to respect his chances with Leparoux getting the call for this.

Gibson's Bullet

He hasn't been at his best in his two most recent races and a case can be made for him being better off at distances shorter than today's one mile assignment; he might be involved in the running early on, but others figure to have more to offer through the lane.

Hypothetical

Nicely bred runner has just a single win next to his name after 19 starts and he's going to need his very best performance to find his way into the mix against these; prefer to side with others.

Drivin Miss Ellie

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; this looks like a tough spot for his first start against winners, his first start over turf, and his first start routing.

Purgenality

He's light on winning form after 26 starts and he's recorded just one runner-up finish in his last 15 starts going back through 2013; going to give others the nod in this one.

Victory Colors

Not thrilled with what he's shown in his two turf starts prior to this, but he is going out for a barn that can move one forward after a claim; third-place finisher from his latest race returned to win next out here on 6/20 going 6f vs. 15-10k claimers with a 63 Beyer.

Above the Bar

Majestic Warrior has not been a positive influence as a turf sire, but this relatively lightly raced 4-year-old has run well in two of his three turf tries; going to respect his chances with Lanerie aboard.

Shipmaker

Tough to ignore the -0 Beyer Speed Figure for his latest start, especially when considering the long layoff and the drop in class; he has a shaky look to him, so going to look in another direction.

Ghost to Ghost

He has some respectable turf form on his card to consider and note that this barn is hitting at a 33% clip with starters first after a claim; runner up from latest won next out at AP on 6/15 going 1m over turf vs. 50k OPC's with a 73 Beyer, and third-place finisher won next out at CD on 6/7 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 40-35k N2L claimers with an 80 Beyer.

City Connect

Stone-cold closer usually shows up and gives an honest account of himself, and if he brings his 'A' game to the table, he's eligible to find himself in the hunt through the final furlong; not willing to count him out of it.

Bold Shot

If you're looking for the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, he has it, and that level of performance isn't out of the norm for him; the outside post isn't ideal at this trip, but he merits respect as a contender.

Air Squadron

If this race has to be taken off the turf he'll be the one to deny, and he was last seen in a productive race; winner won next out here on 5/11 going 1 1/8m vs. 62k OPC's with a 96 Beyer and runner up won next out at EvD on 5/15 going 1m in a 15k OPC with an 85 Beyer.

Forty Four North

Half-brother to G1 winner Siren Lure (15-38, 994k) will need to be ready to step up his game in a noticeable way if he's planning on going after another win while meeting up with winners for the first time. - Brian Pochman