Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for June 21, 2014

Race 1

Lil Susie Too

Shipper tries open claimers after running away from an overmatched bunch as the choice at Indiana Downs a few weeks back; inside draw means her lick should still be on display and maybe from here she's able to clear with a strong front end pilot taking the call; one to catch.

I Want Out

Illinois bred beat a restricted allowance bunch earlier in the month at Fairmount and was also competitive with cheap conditioned claimers prior to that at Hawthorne; like the fact she can employ a stalking gear and maybe that helps her sit the garden spot in her local debut run; may prove to be the one to beat.

Tripledogdareya

Tries open claimers after holding off a weaker bunch in her second start back from better than 4 months on the shelf; don't know that she's as good as some of these, but she does get a big weight concession with the low percentage triple bug named and she did get second money as the chalk in her lone local spin; maybe for a share.

Emily's Sundance

Didn't have much to offer late when raised to this level in her first crack off the freshening; mare has speed, but there are others with a similar style in this heat and that won't make it easy for her to work on her stamina issues; prefer to back others.

Superstardom

Trailed the entire way while making her first start of the year against a cheaper set and now she'll get back in with straight claimers in her local return; mare hasn't run particularly fast in her last handful of tries and will need to step things up quite a bit to have a say in the outcome here.

Abelha Maestra

Outside drawn mare cuts back a half panel after failing to outfinish her rival late in her local return at this level; 5 year old does bring some speed to the table and she has run well from a tracking spot in the past; worth considering. - Steve Grabowski

Race 2

Doodle's Candy

Massive 2nd-time out improvement when switching to dirt for latest; projects to save ground stalking Indygo Star then hopes to outkick Summer Camp in deep stretch; will need to find the missing stamina to graduate vs. this group.

Skydeck

6 weeks away for her 1st dirt start noting the trainer's 11%-win mark and light-75-cent ROI on the main track since 2013; was claimed off a high-percentage win barn then saw her Beyer regress in the 1st start for the new barn as the show finisher graduated next out in an AP-MSW with a 60 speed figure.

Summer Camp

Projects for a perfect trip stalking Indygo Star; blinkers on is just a 7%-win angle for the trainer; MSW-to-maiden claiming is a 23%-win angle while exiting a best-last-race Beyer; posted the field's best Beyer speed figure in March when defeated by the winner who repeated in a BEL allowance with a 79 speed figure; the one to beat.

Indygo Star

Is the one to catch here likely to have Summer Camp breathing down her neck from the bell; not a great sign that her Beyer regressed 18 points 2nd-time out; cutting back a half furlong off latest can only help the cause; new rider will be trying to keep her together in deep stretch.

Hillbury Estate

Sire is 63-for-450 with 1st-time starters; is out of a 4-for-13 dam (109K) who won her first 2 starts; her only other foal to race is 4-for-15 Silver Sands (161K) who graduated in start 3; has been working steadily for a capable-debut barn and 38%-CD-winning jockey-trainer combo; contender.

Lacey the Spartan

Troubled-educational unveiling; tons of upside given a cleaner start for this as some runners improve dramatically 2nd-time out; keeps a high-percentage CD pilot which is a great sign as is the extra half furlong in distance; the pick. - Art Gropper

Race 4

Law Dog

The rail post can be tricky at this trip, but like to see what this gelding did when reunited with Lanerie in his latest start in a race that saw him beat a few of today's rivals, and note that was his first start for this barn after a claim.

Cielo Classic

The 79 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his latest performance is the best last race figure in this field, but the luster of that claim wears off when seeing that he's making his first start since December 2012; prefer to lean toward others.

Marchwood (GB)

Although he's seeking his first turf victory, he's run well enough over turf to merit respect in this spot, and note what he's done racing over wet tracks if rain hits the ground; this looks like a reasonable spot to get him back on grass.

Full

He's looked good in back-to-back starts since moving into this barn and now he'll make his first start over turf for this outfit; he's had success over this turf course in the past and he appears to be in good form entering this race.

Pending Asset

To this point in his career, he's been at his best racing over synthetic surfaces, but he didn't run poorly when finishing behind today's rival Law Dog over turf in his latest outing; note that he hasn't posted a win in his last 13 starts going back through 2013.

Forest Station

He gave a decent account of himself in his first start over this turf course in his latest outing and there's a chance that he might have been a little bit too fresh for that start; not going to argue with anyone for looking favorably in this direction.

Shadow Rock

He's capable of putting in a sharp five furlongs over turf on his best day and the drop to the 25k claiming level might be just what he needs; like to see him showing up for a barn that has been live at this meeting.

Big Royal Deal

Chapel Royal has been a poor influence as a turf sire and this gelding has yet to run a race that is strong enough to suggest that he can compete with the top contenders in here; he has the look of an outsider. - Brian Pochman

Race 5

Playball Tony

Inside again and at least he was inching toward the winner in last; 2 for 11 dam banked nearly $40K, was route only; 2 of 3 siblings won including 10 for 31 route performer and near $140K earner Magnet Cove; should be making an impact late.

George and John

Off a career effort and he should have his sea legs under him by now; siblings were all sprint only but kin Chief of Affairs won stakes and banked nearly $400K; colt was over 4 clear and show horse was by himself too; fits on the Beyer scale; respect.

Snaggedem

Over 8 clear 2 back but some may not have handled the off going; he does have more speed than he just showed; slight drop can't hurt; still must display more.

Q Two

Racer caught fast splits last time and could be forwardly placed on the stretch out; dam's lone win came in England; all 5 siblings won; one cashed routing on dirt; top kin Bright Abundance won a Grade 3, earned nearly $400K, carried speed long on grass; love the series of drills coming to this race; if he can run at all, he figures to show it here.

Grey V Train

Marino Marini about 15% with debuters in a 188-runner sample; sire won first 2 starts at 2 including a stakes, banked nearly $300K, all on grass; dam was unraced; lone half bro was out of the money 5 times; no published moves beyond 4 furlongs.

Foretold

Wide twice, he seems more comfortable for a tag; dam 2nd twice in best results; both siblings won multiple routes; one banked $140K, the other banked over $170K; wonder how high expectations can be for this $2,200 purchase?

Mr. Swagger

Never thrilled to see them give up a clear lead like he did in the local debut and he just never raised a gallop in last; he has some work to do to match top kin, route winner and over $100K earner Catch That Kitten; needs a rebound run. - Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Krypton

Grade 3 winner has done some nice work racing over turf in his career, but when seeing that he's looking to make his first start since April 2011, it's tough to back him against a solid field of 40k claimers such as this; Sarvis has won with 6 of 19 (32%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Forever Sure

15-time winner has won 10 of 22 turf starts and it doesn't hurt to see that he won his 2013 racing debut off of a long layoff; third-place finisher from latest won next out at Mnr on 10/15 going 1 1/16m vs. 5k N1Y claimers with a 63 Beyer.

Saturday Launch

He earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure racing over the main track here in his latest start and the runner up from that race returned to win next out at CD on 6/14 going 7f vs. 30-25k claimers with an 86 Beyer; his turf form has been strong enough to give him a competitive look in this spot.

Thunder Affair

Stakes placed veteran has done some decent work racing over turf from 13 starts but he was beaten by today's rival Night Party in his latest outing; his fine positional speed can help him secure good position early on, and not going to be surprised if he's involved in the running through the final furlong.

English Pound

This colt has a bit of quality to his pedigree, but he's the only one in here who isn't a multiple winner, and his best effort doesn't appear to be fast enough to keep up with the top contenders in this spot.

Dreams Cut Short

He looks like he's at his best racing over a synthetic surface and he finished behind a couple of today's rivals over this turf course in his latest outing; that said, it is worth noting that he's making his first start after a claim for the Maker barn.

Unstoppable U

Stakes winning veteran didn't run poorly the one time he tried turf, and when considering his sharp recent form, this looks like a decent time to give him another chance to see what he can do racing over grass.

Night Party

Multiple graded stakes placed performer appears to be rounding into form nicely, and he certainly made it look easy against five rivals in his latest outing; he has to avoid an early pace dispute to have his best chance, but can't blame his connections for stepping him up in class after his latest effort.

Chalice

High win percentage barn is having a strong meeting and Castanon has won with 4 of 10 mounts for this outfit at the current stand; maybe his sub par recent form is a concern, but still feel that he merits contender status against these.

Derby Kitten

He has a G3 win to his credit and he's displayed solid form since being returned from a layoff three starts back; he's a player at this level of competition and he shows up for Ramsey, Maker and Leparoux.

Paroled

This barn has had some success with recent claims, and if they can help this gelding regain some of his better form, he can get himself into the mix against these; late running type will have to be careful to avoid falling too far out of it early on.

Stay Put

There are a few horses in here that have shown the ability to run their race over dirt, but this will be a decent spot for this gelding to get to go if this race has to be taken off the turf; winner from latest won next out here on 6/7 going 1 1/16m vs. 62k OPC's with a 93 Beyer, and runner up won next out here on 6/6 going 1m vs. 50k claimers with an 81 Beyer. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

Rousanne

Fought hard from the bell to break her maiden first out over 3 rivals at 1-5 here last month and now she'll tackle winners for the initial time; her interim drills are slow and she draws the fence for this which means she'll likely be all out from the bell; don't think she'll move forward enough on the figure scale to prove a legitimate threat right back.

Irish Nuggets

Broke her maiden on synthetic footing while tackling a shorter trip in Illinois first time out; she did show that she was capable of tracking and passing runners which is an encouraging sign for an inexperienced runner and though she'll need to prove she can handle the new footing, she may offer some value; maybe for a minor award.

Promise Me Silver

Ran away from Texas breds at Lone Star last month and that big effort came after breaking at the back of the pack from the inside draw; gray has worked well since shipping here to take on open company winners and she'll get a solid journeyman pilot for her local debut; contender.

Unbridled Reward

Pricey in training buy ran to her wet track pedigree while skipping through the slop in her shorter local debut run when sent to post at 3-5; runner up in that heat returned to score with a 53 Beyer; she'll tackle tougher on the stretchout in this spot and she'll probably have to deal with a different track condition this time, but given the way she's impressed it's tough not to consider her a huge repeat threat right back.

Ol Sanish

Filly wasn't good enough to get away from the gal drawn to her immediate outside here in her debut but did hold well to get second money; maybe the race experience helps to move her up as the youngsters can improve at different rates and this gal is the first foal to race out of a SW dam who banked 259K and took 8 sprints; consider.

Rachel's Ready

Filly draws an advantageous post after running her debut field down from a wide spot after chasing moderate splits; like the fact she can settle and make a run and she certainly gave the indication that today's added panel will be right up her alley; they'll have her to beat. - Steve Grabowski

Race 9

Quiet Success

Rock-solid form coming into this event; the latest effort represents a career-best Beyer speed figure when just missing; beat the 3-back show finisher who Beyered 96 in a next-out optional-claiming win; versatile enough to win racing on the lead or stalking the pace; CD is the concern; her last CD dirt start was October, 2012, at 7F in an OPC when finishing a distant 10th with a career-low 19 Beyer; she graduated on CD dirt at 4.5F.

Blueeyesintherein

Freshened up for this CD oval for a high-percentage local barn; tons of promise commencing career 3-for-3 two of those wins on CD dirt including a Grade 3; exits a career-low Beyer when finishing last in a key race; the show, 5th, 6th and 7th-place finishers from latest Beyered 84-84-81-76 in next-out PRM-LS-50K stakes, AP-OPC and CD-40K-claiming wins.

Turn by Turn

Her stakes debut was not very enticing fading to finish 12th last fall; gets a major-class test for this; showed up in latest off-the-bench with front wraps on for the 1st time ever which is not a good sign but she produced a victory and her best Beyer since September; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 83 in a next-out CD-OPC win; the 2-back winner and runner-up finisher Beyered 91-88 in next-out OP-100K stakes and alw. wins.

Speedinthruthecity

That was a tough Grade 1 event she competed in 7 weeks ago snapping her perfect 2-for-2 CD record; fires huge off the bench; her OP-fresh race in March is a career-best Beyer; her-late-running style fits the rider listed who reunites for the 1st time since a last-place finish in a KEE-Grade 1.

Warm Breeze

Without much gate speed projected here she hopes to take advantage and play catch me if you can; exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure with a good chance to move forward 2nd time back off the nearly 10-week absence; following 2 graded stakes should appreciate today's class relief; the 2-back winner repeated in a KEE-Grade 1 with a 96 Beyer.

Miffed

The turf debut was dull finishing last; she was unable to get to the lead in latest which is her best game; Warm Breeze figures to be an early player here but her best chance would be getting loose up top; the 2-back winner repeated in an OP-OPC with an 87 Beyer.

Devious d'Oro

Horse for the course makes her stakes debut over a surface she just aired over 13 days ago; likes to sit far back then make one run; it doesn't help her repeat chances that we don't have a projected hotly-contested pace here; the 4-back winner repeated in a SAR-100K stakes with an 88 Beyer.

Elusive Fate

Off latest seemed to be screaming out for more yardage but cuts back to 6F for this; owns a 3-0-0-1 record vs. stakes company during career and leaps back up in class off 9 straight losses with lesser; reunites with the Mile-CD win rider from one year ago; others appeal more.

Anahauc

Exits her lowest Beyer since the October, 2012, career debut; was troubled in latest; which filly shows up for this?; was no match for Warm Breeze in latest while 2-back on CD dirt beat the show finisher who Beyered 92 in a next-out IND-OPC win; 3-back is a field-best Beyer; looms a logical contender if bounces back to best.

Thicker Than Water

Woking well for her 1st start in over 4 months; the winner from last Beyered 86 in a next-out LRL-OPC win; the 2-back winner captured her next 2 OPC races with 93-87 speed figures; was shockingly on the lead in last when the opening quarter went slowly; likely chases the pace wide today then hopes to hang on late for a share. - Art Gropper

Race 10

Wheresmysock

Kodiac Kowboy 5 for 43 with firsters, 0 for 16 with first-time turfers; sire won 4 times at 2, took multiple Grade 1s, banked over $1.6 million, never turfed; dam out of the money thrice; 2 of 4 siblings won; 3 tried grass to no avail; top kin Splash of Roses was stakes placed, banked nearly $160K; colt has trained fast for this;

Sweet Platinum

Wide in 2 of 3, recent drills solid including 2nd best of 26 spin last Saturday; dam not close in 4 tries; several multiple race winners in the family; a couple won on grass including G1 winner and over $500K player Santa Teresita; racer looks live.

Nantucketeer

Street Sense 14 for 107 with first-time turfers; sire won twice at 2 including BC Juvenile, took the Derby, banked over $4.3 million, was never on grass; 2 for 8 dam banked nearly $65K, was grass only; both siblings won including triple grass winner and near $70K earner Sapphire Blue; 3rd and 7th finishers in last took MSW events next out and the winner was 2nd beaten just over a length in a $150K stakes in next; must hurry.

Bocelli

Veteran has not been able to duplicate the fine SAR performance of last summer; backers can point to the fact there is turf success in the tree and that top kin Stay Thirsty won multiple G1s and banked nearly $2 million; would think long and hard before taking too short a price.

Dynamite Stick

Colt has the 3 races to draw from now and is due to get there; hard to take a positive stance the way he backed up last time; passing.

Zip N Run

Run Away and Hide 2 for 22 with first-time turfers; sire raced 3 times, won all those juvenile starts, earned nearly $225K, never turfed; dam took one dirt sprint, lost twice on grass; cut out to run as a $220K buy and he has a shot to show even more speed with the blinks.

Dr. Hal

Toss the synthetic races and the form brightens; the way he closed in the debut suggests he can rate if given the chance; decent move on the 15th; contention goes deep.

C'Mon Cat

Tale of the Cat about 17% with debuters in a 956-runner study; about 10% of his first-time turf runners in a 574-horse study; sire didn't race at 2, took debut at 3 in a shore route by over 11 with a 95 Beyer, won only grass start, banked over $350K; dam was unraced; this is her first to race; could need experience.

Copperplate

Curlin about 13% with debuters in a 125-runner study, 11 for 71 with first-time turfers; sire didn t race at 2, won a ton Grade 1s as a double Horse of the Year, banked over $10 million, was 2nd in only turf out beaten 2 in a G1; G3 winning 4 for 14 dam earned nearly $350K, won first time she tasted grass; this is her first to race; note improved energy in the drill on the 11th.

Cha Mono

First Samurai about 10% of his first-time turf runners in a 113-horse study; 5 for 8 sire took juvenile debut, won Champagne and Hopeful, never turfed; dam s lone win was a dirt sprint; lone half bro lost only start; he hooked the repeater in the debut and the 3/29 winner was put up on Bayern's expense in the G3 Derby Trial; should be around the wire again.

So So Worth It

Nearly blew up the tote board on the fine cut back try; 3 for 12 dam earned over $100K, lost only grass try; lone half bro Ghostbuster took 3 sprints, banked nearly $80K, never turfed; there seems to be plenty of speed here to help promote the kick.

Valdina's Will

A tad short in the debut and in tight in the 2013 closer; dam was unraced; all 3 siblings won including G2 placed double grass winner Blushing Bear; he s drilled well locally and key off the debut and he fits with slight improvement. - Brian Mulligan