Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for June 20, 2014

Race 2

Offshore Fantasy

Sired by Belmont Stakes winner Sarava who won 773K and whose offspring have scored in 6 out of 103 debuts; the dam involved won 2 of 23 attempts and 37K; among the winning siblings is 20K earner Uptonow.

Shere Khan

Has shown much more gate speed in the last pair and gets weight from the entire field today; draws favorably and should be able to set or press the pace from the opening bell; improving gelding must be respected.

Avellino

Newcomer hails from G3 victor Indygo Shiner who baned 446K and whose progeny have won 10 out of 124 initial starts; the dam won 1 of 9 and 51K; there are no winning siblings to highlight; modest breeze pattern on view.

One Brave Warrior

On the shelf for more than a year, he disappointed as the favorite in his 2013 finale; his sire won 616K including G1 success while the dam won 2 of 7 and 235K; sib to 373K earner Sleepless Knight.

Toroparu

Quit early in that last run at Oaklawn but the early fractions of that event were sharp; his sire won a G1 and 450K in total; the dam won 5 of 12 races and 59K; winning siblings include 45K earner Big Boy Artie.

Enlisted Man

Flashed sudden early speed in his last assignment and breezed extremely well on the morning of 6/4; could secure ideal stalking position to the outside flank of Shere Khan and his prospects brighten if able to accomplish that goal.

Swift Humor

No firepower shown thus far but he was facing much better stock in both attempts; his sire won multiple graded stakes and 769K while the dam won 7 of 17 and 339K; winning sibs include 709K earner Griffin Gate; difficult call against this lot. - Jim Kachulis

Race 3

Argumental

5-year-old finally got his second win and he earned a decent Beyer Speed Figure that is the best last-race figure in the field; he could be ready for a peak performance in the third start of his current form cycle and the past five years his new trainer has a 22 percent strike rate running back claimed horses the first time; big shot.

Gladhander

Goes from turf to dirt for a trainer who has solid recent stats with horses making the surface switch plus over the past five years he has a respectable 15 percent strike rate in the category; the bad news is this guy hasn't won on dirt and most of his races on the page show double-digit losses; prefer others.

Lew and Mike

We'll assume there will be some works to look at before the race but we aren't that concerned because the past five years Drury has a 32 percent strike rate with horses coming off a layoff of 180 days or more; horse that won his latest earned an 88 Beyer Speed Figure when he repeated in a $40K optional race at Turfway Jan. 3; this guy is dropping to a new low and he will appreciate the substantially easier company; the pick.

Start Lively

Not sure why he didn't run in 2013 but it is hard to support him off what he has shown us in his two starts at Belterra this year; he won on turf and Polytrack and both of his wins came going long so he is going to be up against it running in this sprint on dirt; passing.

Indian Pegasus

3-year-old is stepping above his conditions but he is coming off two solid races here and he could improve with the blinkers going on for the first time; his win came going around two turns but he's shown decent speed in his last two routes and if Mena can get him involved early he could make a lot of noise late; the past five years Montano has a 24 percent strike rate with horses making their second start after being claimed; playable.

Professor Trek

He's another one that hasn't won sprinting but at least he has a win over dirt; he set a moderate pace and held on well to finish third in a cheaper nonwinners of three here June 7 but the 48 Beyer Speed Figure he received isn't going to scare anyone; at least it was a step in the right direction and in the past he has posted figures that would put him in the mix with this group;; consider for the exotics. - Randy Goulding

Race 4

Format V.

Returns in a protected spot for his first off this barn's claim and he'll switch back to the pilot aboard for his score at Keeneland 2 starts back; gelding give the trip another crack and he showed last time that he has the tactical foot to stay involved from the bell; with nearly 4 weeks of recovery time in him he looks to be a strong repeat threat.

Zero X Zero

Faced allowance runners when sent to Mountaineer last time and proved little threat to the top 2 finishers while beating just one rival home; he did win here late last summer so maybe the change in scenery helps but he hasn't run fast enough to seriously threaten the best that some of these have to offer.

Winkatdawat

Last out runner up in the local slop is back in a protected spot while seeking his third career score; gelding owns some back numbers that would fit quite well in this spot and maybe the return to a dry strip helps bring back out some of that ability; from a tracking spot he's worth a look.

Biker Boy

Tries better after coming up with little late on the slight cut back last time; 9 year old isn't the win machine he once was but he could be set to move forward with the regression behind him and if he does he's capable of getting in the exotics mix at a decent price.

Flattermejim

Twice beaten chalk returns to dirt after a couple of decent efforts on the local lawn; the last time he was on the main track he earned a career best number that would make him pretty tough if repeated here and he is a winner over the local strip; pace figures to be enough to set up his kick which they will have to hold off; one to beat.

Magical Moment

Skipped through the slop to crush claimers including one of today's foes while making his first start off the outfit's claim; he'll move off the fence in search of his third straight score but he has shown he doesn't need the lead to fire so the post draw shouldn't bother him; contender.

Froggyville

Gelding has settled for a lot of minor awards since last visiting the winner's circle; he'll stretch out to a trip at which he's a career .500 hitter and he does own a local score; still, these are better than he's been facing and off what he's shown of late he's probably best used underneath in exotics. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Nifty Shindig

Same owner/different trainer for this; big-style change in last when racing from off the pace which should come in handy in this speed-heavy event; is winless on grass; today is her 1st turf start since November 2012, when finishing 6th in a 9F-CD-MSW; a better sprinter she finished 2nd in her grass debut on CD green at 5F; co-field-best Beyer speed figure was in an AQU-6F dirt race so would not mind this moved to dirt; defeated the 2-back show finisher who Beyered 67 in a next-out GP-OPC win; the 3-back winner repeated in a GP-optional claimer with a.67.

Mizzen Miss

Grass debut win was on the lead; she is 1 of 5 runners that raced 1st at the 1st call in last which logicaly would lead to a speed duel and help out the off-the-pace types; you don't get a hotter CD-jockey-trainer combo (37%) but the barn's lone-turf sprint win since 2013 was her fresh victory 12 days ago with a bounce chance for this.

Little Norwegian

Sire is 24-for-244 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal out of a 7-0-1-2 grass dam (15K); long layoff for her 1st start of the year; graduated on CD fast dirt 2 back beating the runner-up finisher who Beyered 64 in a next-out IND-MSW win; the 3-back show runner graduated next out in a CD-40K-maiden claimer with an 81 Beyer.

Crissy Field

Rallied past the fast-from-the gate Woo Pass while this field is loaded with frontrunners which helps her late-running win hopes; the 3-back winner repeated in an AP-OPC with a 76 Beyer; is winess on grass but seems setup nicely to graduate; the pick.

Our Jenny B

Adds blinkers for her 2nd start following a long layoff; should improve upon latest where primed going long on dirt; lone grass start 2 back was a trailed-throughout running line where the winner repeated in an ELP-OPC with a 77 Beyer.

Velvet Zip

Blinkers on is a high-win percentage angle for the trainer; her sire is 48-for-341 with 1st-turf starters; is tthe 1st foal out of a 4-0-0-1 grass dam (5K); hopes the new hood helps turn the tables on Run Away's Sis; the 2-back winner repeated in a CD-OPC with an 85 Beyer.

Woo Pass

Huge-gate speed on display but could not off Crissy Field in last and has 4 other runners entered here that raced 1st at the 1st call in last; the debut winner repeated in a TAM allowance with a 79 Beyer; know her early then hopes to hang on late for a share.

Hookah Lady

Dueled into defeat at long odds in last and a similar scenario looms for this with more-gate speed added on; better suited for the main track she graduated on CD dirt in November beating the show finisher who Beyered 31 in a next-out MNR,-15K-maiden-claiming win.

Run Away's Sis

Sire is 48-for-341 with 1st-turf starters; dam did not race on grass (overall 1-for-4, 23K); her only foal to race on North American turf is 0-for-1; the runner-up and 5th-place finishers from last Beyered 82-67 in next-out CD-50-K-30K-claiming wins.

Fioretti

Sire is 6-for-146 with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal to race out of a 2-for-4 grass dam (62K); her other foal to compete did not attempt turf; brief speed in her 1st start for a different trainer/same owner; has early zip in a race filled with it; the 2-back show runner Beyered 84 in a next-out PIM-alw. win; the 3-back winner repeated in a LRL-15K claimer with a 72 .

Moonlit Stroll

Sire is 7-for-45 with 1st-turf starters; is out of an unraced dam; she produced 1 grass winner from 2 foals to attempt the lawn including 1-for-4 She Will Rock You (8K); a lot of upside off the debut win which represents a co-field-best Beyer and best-last-race speed figure.

Not Again Nancye

Nearly one year since her career debut on grass which was dull and prompted 9 other races on dirt and synthetic surfaces; her best game is gate speed but this event is loaded with quick from the gate types; the 2-back show finisher Beyered 78 in a next-out CD alw. win.

Rulelikecleopatra

Sire is 13-for-139 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-8 grass dam (35K) who's only other foal to race did not attempt turf; career-debut win was on the lead beating the runner-up finisher who graduated next out with a 65 Beyer then repeated in an LS alw. with a 69. - Art Gropper

Race 7

He's a Bling

Too Much Bling 13 for 88 with first-timers; sire won at 2, took multiple G2s, banked over $500K; 4 for 12 dam banked $40K; 3 of 4 siblings won; one took a stakes, 2 banked 6 figures; in good hands, love the work pattern.

Retrenchment

Malibu Moon about 14% with first-timers in a 769-runner grid; sire graduated in second start at 2 at 5 furlongs on dirt for only win in 2-race career; dam was unraced; all 4 siblings won; stakes placed top earner Whiskey Double won 3 times at 2; respect these connections.

Bird Now

Caught fast splits in the debut and may have hated the sealed muddy track last time; 8/3 winner took the Grade 3 Sapling next out, was a well beaten 2nd in a $75K Delta stakes to kick off 2014; dam was unraced; lone half sis was one for 10, it was a route; rates upset glance.

Aces High

Failed to bluff them when just forcing the issue in last; dam was 0 for 7; 2 of 4 siblings won; top half sis Chelsea Road took 4 of 17, earned nearly $130K; he's coming around.

Reeder

Beyers going in the right direction and he was nearly 3 clear; stakes placed 3 for 15 dam banked nearly $120K; one of 3 siblings won; that half bro Riopelle took 4 of 46, banked $155K; major player.

Tribal Message

Pushed issue in grass bow, had nothing left when the real racing began; look for pilot to take a hold, try to save ground, hope a duel materializes and then make the one run.

Thunder's Rollin'

Last 3 efforts were solid, show horse was over 4 clear in last and he's well drawn here; 4/29 place horse took a MSW here next out with a 76 Beyer; there are several 6 figure earners in the tree including Art Fan, who won a couple of stakes and earned nearly $400K; can't fault those that give him another shot at glory after double chalk flop. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Knights Nation

His 3-year-old form was solid and he may have simply needed his latest start after a long layoff to regain some conditioning; he was a sharp winner over this turf course just three races ago and that level of performance can make him a player in this spot.

Seton Hall

Like the form that he displayed between June and September last year, but it does look like he's going to need to see a few of these show up with less than their best in order to have a chance at the top spot; leaning toward others.

Greengrassofyoming

He's on a roll right now but it looks like he's going to have to achieve a new Beyer Speed Figure top to prove to be the one in this spot; runner up from latest won next out at Mnr on 6/10 going 1m over turf vs. alw. rivals with an 87 Beyer; Rocco has won with 5 of 20 (25%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Star Channel

Not only does this 5-year-old sport a strong turf pedigree but he's gotten the job done in 7 of 23 turf starts; however, if this multiple stakes winner has a negative to consider, it's that he's yet to post a 1-2-3 finish from three starts over this turf course; nevertheless, he has to be listed among the contenders.

Avanzare

He really hasn't run a bad race from six starts while finishing no worse than second, but it is a little bit of a concern to see that his recent Beyer Speed Figures haven't been his best; runner up from latest won next out at AP on 5/30 going 1 1/16m vs. 40k OPC's with an 85 Beyer.

Kid Dreams

Grade 3 winner ran some nice races over turf as a 3-year-old, and even though this is a tough group of 80k OPC's, he's going to appreciate the class relief for his 4-year-old racing debut; this barn can have one ready to fire fresh and he has a live look to him with Lanerie hopping aboard.

King David

He's the only Grade 1 winner signed on in this spot and his most recent start after a layoff can serve as a useful conditioner for this; he's won 7 of 19, including 6 of 15 over turf, and his most recent workout in preparation for this looks sharp.

Kalamos

He ran well enough just two and three starts back to be given a competitive look in this spot, and as long as this late running type doesn't leave himself with too much ground to cover when he hits the head of the stretch, he can prove to be a threat for the top prize.

Olympic Thunder (BRZ)

He's a neck shy of being a Grade 3 winner and like the idea of Leparoux getting a turn with this late running type as he might prove to be a good fit aboard this 6-year-old; if he brings his 'A' game to the table, he'll be making noise through the lane. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Candip

Earned a big number for a debuting juvenile when breaking his maiden at Remington late last summer; he's been working regularly for his first start since then and the barn excels with its runners first time back; there's other speed in here so he'll have to work from the bell while tackling an added panel, but they may have to catch him from here.

Duval

Just missed holding on at a slightly longer trip when trying winners for the first time earlier this month; colt broke his maiden at the local trip and he may be able to work out a pretty nice trip behind the speed in this heat; barn is going well and a top pilot will get back aboard; contender.

Conquest Two Step

Colt hasn't been able to get back to the number he earned in the local debut score at this time last year; he failed to go on after making the lead last out, but that was his first crack in 10 months and he does have a right to move forward off it; presence of other speed is the concern with this 420K in training buy.

Viva Majorca

Didn't handle the local fence draw as well as he did while breaking his maiden in Florida; colt has worked like he'll be better with the effort behind him and he does figure to get a solid clip in front of him; with Leparoux sticking this lightly raced colt is a contender.

Twang

Wasn't beaten much by a next out winner when making his local return at the level last month; speed is this gray's best game but there are several in here who are quick early as well and that won't make things easy on him; he has breezed better of late and maybe the slight cut back helps him last longer this time.

Signature Seven

He's in for the optional tag while turning back to sprint after tiring at 2 turns last time; gray beat a field of his claiming peers at one turn over the local main track 2 starts back and he did break his maiden sprinting, but a minor award may prove his ceiling with these.

Bitters 'n Bourbon

He's been working pretty well this month for his return from the freshening after tiring from a wide spot last time out; colt ran on late to get third money from well into the track in his sprint debut here last fall and as he proved last time, he's capable of sitting closer to the top; price warrants him an exotics look.

Southern Blessing

Races outside stakes company for the first time since his local debut score at even money nearly 13 months ago; gelding ran well in a quick paced G2 Stanford at Saratoga but wasn't much of a threat in his 2 starts since then and though the barn has been hot here, they haven't done so well with absentees.

Overton Square

Earned a big number when turned back to sprint from the local fence while in for his cheapest price yet; colt may have just turned the corner in that one, but his interim drill wasn't much and his last out pilot opts to side elsewhere today; making him repeat his last one.

Be Well

Finished behind one of these when off the board in her return from 4 1/2 months on the shelf; barn does move them up of late second back from the break and this guy has shown the ability to sit within stalking range of the front runners from the bell; with a move forward he's capable of having a say in the outcome. - Steve Grabowski

Race 10

Celebrategoodtimes

Commendable first run when probably best as the 3 to 2 favorite; her sire won multiple G1s and 3.63 million; the dam won 4 of 17 and 190K; among the winning siblings is 188K earner Transparent; can atone.

In Full Compliance

Offspring of Smart Strike, a G1 winner who netted 337K, have scored in 118 out of 819 initial starts; the dam won 1 of 8 and 17K; winning siblings include 150K earner Devon Rock; average work tab overall.

Helen Kathleen

Decent showing first time out considering the wide post and path; her undefeated sire won 749K including G1 success; the dam never competed; among the winning sibs is 51K bankroller Buen Verso.

Incompatible

Was part of a rapid pace in that second attempt when a clear-cut second; her sire won a G2 and 725K in total; the dam won 3 of 13 attempts and 87K; among the winning siblings is 160K earner Alienation.

Taylor Street

Not a bad comeback race a month ago but this filly has not shown enough in the way of a passing gear; her latest breeze is solid but that may not be enough to end the drought; still warrants some inclusion in underneath portions of exotic play.

Moon River Gal

Newcomer hails from the prolific Malibu Moon nwho won 1 of 2 races and 33K (his progeny have scored in 107 out of 769 debuts); the dam won 4 of 11 and 235K; winning sibs include 251K earner Sweet Hope.

Sparkling Review

A steady set of half-mile breezes to consider; her sire won multiple G1s and 3.24 million; descendants of Lemon Drop are 48 for 546 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 3 of 15 and 141K; this is her only foal to start.

Alexis Inspires

Beginner hails from multiple G1 star Afleet Alex who garnered 2.76 million and whose progeny have won 23 out of 327 debuts; the dam went zero for 7; this is her sole foal to make it o the starting gate.

Vision of Mine

Made a decent middle move in her first outing before tiring; her sire won multiple G1s and 2.28 million; the mom won 3 of 16 and 94K; among the winning siblings is 253K earner Surpass; minor distance cutback can work in her favor. - Jim Kachulis