Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for June 19, 2014

Race 1

New Found King

He had a pretty wide trip in a one-turn mile when he dropped to this level in his latest and he should get a better trip with the move to an inside post; he ran a big race going around two turns at Keeneland two back and a similar effort would put him in the mix; Lasix added and he sheds 10 pounds; consider for the exotics.

Karter's Intent

Horse that finished third in his latest at Belterra came back to win a $7.5 maiden claimer at BtP with a 47 Beyer Speed Figure June 13; this would seem to be a tougher spot but at least he seems to heading in the right direction and we can't say that about most of the ones he's facing here; nonetheless, others look more attractive.

Stone Cold Wild

He didn't have any noticeable excuses while finishing a distant sixth in the same race New Found King exits; that makes double-digit losses in back-to-back races at this level; he's also never hit the board in five starts over this surface; prefer others.

E Pluribus

Drops to a new low in his first start as a 4-year-old and he should appreciate the substantially easier company; horse that finished second in his latest at Indiana came back to win a $30K maiden claimer here with an 85 Beyer Speed Figure; the past five years Bradley has a 10 percent strike rate with horses returning from a layoff of 180 days or more; contender.

Roque Bluff

Claimed for $30K by Kennealy who the past five years has a 19 percent strike rate with newly claimed horses; none were taking this big of a drop, though, so there are some obvious concerns; however, in the same time period he has won with half of the eight horses he has dropped in value by 50 percent or more; easy to toss his latest as he got banged around pretty good just after leaving the starting gate; expecting an improved performance here; the pick.

Bull Gato

Looks like the one they will have to catch and note the strong recent stats Barnett has with horses taking the blinkers off; his first two route attempts weren't very inspiring plus he's the first foal out of a mare that won 12 sprints and just a single route so there could be distance limitations; nonetheless, he could get brave on the lead and it wouldn't be surprising to see him take them a long way; playable. - Randy Goulding

Race 3

Runaway Kitten

Sire is 50-for-320 (16%) with 1st-turf starters; 60-for-366 (16%) with debut runners; is out of a 1-for-4 dam (35K) who did not race on dirt until her 3rd-career start at 1Mile and 1-16ths; she produced 3 winners from 3 other foals to race including Grade 3-placed full- Fear the Kitten (2-for-17, 190K) who won his 1st two starts at 1 Mile and 1M and 1-16th; 2 foals to race on turf are 6-0-0-0 (9K) combined.

Danzig Gold

In 5 straight starts has broken last or next to last; exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when stretched out to 1 Mile and an eighth for the 1st time but was never much of a factor in a tougher spot; will be far back saving ground then hopes the speed falls apart in deep stretch.

Closing Prize

Sire is 8-for-76 (11%) with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-3 grass dam (11K) who won her ELP-turf debut at 1 Mile and 1-16th; 1 of 3 foals to race on grass is a turf winner (1-for-10 C for Chant 14K); the debut winner who was 3rd in the BEL Stakes (99) finished 5th (73 Beyer) next-out in a KEE-Grade 3 stakes; the 1-for-15 long layoff trainer suggests we take a wait and see approach.

Malibu Springs

March is a field-best Beyer speed figure but has been defeated by more than 33 lengths in his next 3 starts combined; his KEE race at today's distance did not gave the impression that 9F was his cup of tea when the show finisher Beyered 72 in a next-out DEL-MSW win.

Umustbekidding

Ran to the 25-1 odds from his debut; he passed a few but was outrun throughout; MSW-to-maiden claiming is a class drop hoping also for a dramatic-2nd-time out improvement; keeps a winning CD jockey-trainer combo while in a race lacking superstars.

Sin Cara

Sire is 1-for-31 (3%) with 1st-turf starters; is the 1st foal to race out of a 1-for-3 grass dam (15K); she won at 1M and 1-16th; the show finisher from last Beyered 47 in a next-out BTP-$7,500-maiden-claiming win; 4 of his 7 races coming back as zero Beyers makes him a tough call.

Sir Nicholas

Another 2nd-time starter who drops in class for this; seeks a huge improvement after being troubled at the start; scary if breaks fast for this; blinkers on with 5 weeks to regroup and latest workout suggests we will see a much-better effort for this.

Dyna's Vow

1-for-13 CD trainer this meet yields 22% winners with similar-fresh runners since 2013; the workout for this was not very inspiring but it was an improvement from the April 19 gate drill; the winner from last Beyered 59 in a next-out 4th-place finish in a MNR alw.; the runner-up and show finishers from last Beyered 65-63 in next-out CD-45K-30K-maiden-claiming runner-up and 4th-place finishes. - Art Gropper

Race 4

Dixie Fiction

She's been pretty dull in her last three races and once again she draws the rail after not making much of an impact in the same race Katie O. exits; no luck in five starts over this surface and given her recent form it's hard to see her turning things around today; passing.

Katie O.

Easy to toss her race two back when she dropped to this level and stumbled at the start; she came back with a solid effort in her latest and she owns the best last-race Beyer Speed Figure; Borel sticks and he figures to have her forwardly placed in a race they don't figure to be going all that fast early; contender.

Centella

Flopped as the chalk when she ran for a tag for the first time in her latest but it's easy to forgive her; she broke a half-step slow and then the jock took a big hold when it looked like she was full of run but apparently didn't have anywhere to go; claimed out of the race and the past five years Montano has a 25 percent strike rate running them back the first time; 3 of 4 sibs are multiiple winners; sharp work here June 12 adds to her appeal; big shot.

Alexis Rules

She spotted the field quite a few lengths when she broke poorly in he debut so it wasn't surprising she tired after moving into contention at the top of the stretch; gets off the rail and figures to move forward for a trainer that has solid stats with second-time shooters; dam's lone win came on turf; 1 of 2 sibs is a winner; expecting her to get off to a better start with a solid move from the gate June 12; the pick.

Leave It in Vegas

Debuts for a trainer who the past five years is 1/76 with first-time starters; sire is a below average debut sire at roughly 6 percent; all 7 sibs are winners the best being Grade 2 placed In My Glory who won 4 races and earned $181K; 5-year-old probably needs a race, though; prefer others.

Little Stevie Girl

Double-digit losses in both of her starts and she will need to take a big step forward to make an impact here; first time blinkers and second time Lasix could lead to an improved performance; both sibs are multiple winners including Grade 3 placed Ridgester who won 3 races and earned $171K so it is too early to give up on her; nonetheless, others look more attractive in this spot. - Randy Goulding

Race 5

Be Discreet

Moderate breeze pattern for this son of Discreetly Mine who won a G1 stakes and 799K and whose progeny are zero for 2 in debuts; the dam won 1 of 9 and 35K; among the winning siblings is 4K earner City Distract.

Runforthewoods

Good gate breeze 9 days ago for this beginner whose sire won a G1 and 591K; offspring of Forestry have scored in 62 out of 588 initial starts; the dam went 6 for 11 earning 107K; winning siblings include 49K earner Norm's Passion.

Magic Apple

Upgrade in the latest half-mile drill; his sire won 2.67 million including G1 success; descendants of Hard Spun have won 11 percent of their first races; the dam was zero for 4 lifetime; winning sibs include 67K bankroller Forbidden.

Rod McLeod

Sired by G1 winner Roman Ruler who captured 1.22 million and whose progeny are 36 for 279 as far as winning their first test; the dam won 4 of 16 and 283K; there are no winning siblings to highlight.

Croninthebarbarian

His sire won multiple G2s and 795K in total; descendants of Stroll have won 17 out of 80 debuts; the dam was without a tally in 2 attempts; among the winning siblings is 20K earner Siva; the trainer has compiled solid numbers at the meet.

Fly Friendly Sky

Encouraged by the latest gate drill; his sire won a G1 and 633K; offspring of Sky Mesa are 53 for 393 in the first time victorious department; the mom won 3 of 17 and 97K; winning sibs include 16K earner Faster Than Light.

Highway to Fame

Light breeze regimen for this colt, son of Derby winner Monarchos who netted 1.72 million (his progeny have won 39 out of 280 initial races); the dam won 1 of 3 and 15K; among the winning sibs is 71K earner Cheerful Contender.

Storm Off

Respectable showing in his first venture at this oval but was compromised by a wide trip that day; draws unfortunate post now but does have a distinct advantage being the only runner in the field with racing experience; difficult assessment overall. - Jim Kachulis

Race 6

Harborplace

Just failed to last when stepped up to this level in his local return from the freshening; slightly shorter trip should help and he doesn't look to catch a lot of other speed in this heat; inside draw figures to put him in a good spot from the bell and this 2 time local winner does own a solid trip effort over the track last fall; consider.

Jazil Bell

Turns back for his first off the outfit's claim after coming up short late in a troubled run in his local return; gelding does own a couple of numbers that would put him in the mix here and he does own a local one turn score; barn is going well here but this guy's best shot may be at a minor placing.

Montezuma Express

Sprinter tries a flat mile while giving the level another shot after offering little late a couple of weeks back; gelding does have the lick to be involved from the bell and a top pilot does stick with him, but don't know that he'll have enough left to prove a serious threat in the lane; prefer others on the win end.

Congenial

Makes his local return while dropping well below the price this outfit paid for him 2 starts back in Arkansas; he didn't do much in the Oaklawn slop last out, but maybe the return to dry footing would help and his drill last weekend suggests he may be set for a much improved try for a barn that hits at a big clip with his returnees; contender.

Shun

He's in for a tag while switching surfaces on the turn back but does remain above the price this barn paid for him at Keeneland; maybe the dirt helps, but he's done his better running on other footing and the returning pilot has had a rough go of things here; have to look elsewhere for the winner.

The Best Glacier

Ten time winner makes his local return in his second start back from 3 months on the shelf for an outfit that excels with the move and now they'll drop him in for a cheap tag; numbers he earned prior to the stakes spin were excellent and would make him quite tough if repeated in this spot; one to beat.

Foolhardy

Outside drawn gelding moves back to dirt while dropping in for a tag off a weak effort on the local sod; tracked a hot clip last time he was on this footing and didn't have much left so don't know that the surface change is going to help him all that much; maybe for a minor share. - Steve Grabowski

Race 7

Rincon Behr

Sire wins with approximately 14% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; he's shown some ability from five dirt starts, but he draws a tough rail post in his first start sprinting over turf, and this is the first time that he's ever had to break from post one.

Penny's Deputy

He's out of a stakes placed dam who won 4 of 19 turf starts for 125k, and he has a little bit of early speed, but he's going to need to show up with an improved performance if he's to prove to be a player in this spot.

Aztec Brave (FR)

His first two starts racing in France look strong and not going to be too hard on him for the poor performance aginst G3 competition in his latest start; this looks like an ideal spot for his first start in America, and he attracts the services of Lanerie; must consider.

Divine Thunder

Sire wins with approximately 7% of his turf starters and multiple stakes winning dam won 9 of 30 starts for 309k, including 6 of 12 turf starts for 216k; his latest start was his sharpest performance to date and this isn't a bad spot for his first turf test.

Little Distorted

Sire wins with approximately 13% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won once from four starts for 20k, and she didn't make a start over turf; maybe the surface switch can help, but prefer to look toward others.

Forfeit

Sire wins with approximately 12% of his turf starters and dam won once from six starts for 6k; this gelding is a 1/2 to Flounce (1-2, 10k over turf); he needs an improved showing in his turf debut in order to contend.

Big Blue Talent

Limited available data on sire with regard to his turf starters and he was multiple G1 stakes placed during his racing career while winning 6 of 15 starts for 603k, and he didn't make a turf start; dam was winless from five starts, and she didn't make a start over turf; this gelding is a 1/2 to Blockade Runner (1-7, 16k, including 1-for-1 over turf for 8k).

Big Sugar Soda

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 3 of 11 starts for 56k, and she didn't make a turf start; G2 stakes placed colt make his first turf start for a barn and rider that have teamed to win with 6 of 7 (86%) starters at the current meeting.

Rednamite

He has some early speed to help him get involved in the running right from the bell, but he will need to produce an improved overall performance if he's to keep himself in the hunt through the final furlong against these.

Smoke Town

His latest effort looks good when compared to what most of these have shown to be capable of and that was his first turf start since moving into this barn; note that he finished right behind today's rival Law Dog in that event.

Batten the Hatches

He hasn't been shy about settling for minor awards in his career, and that might be a reason to look in another direction for the top spot; however, his best effort is clearly fast enough to get him into the mix against these.

Yardbird Misfits

The long layoff is a concern, and this has a chance to prove to be a tough spot for him to meet up with winners for the first time; runner up from latest won next out at TP on 1/1 going 6 1/2f vs. MSW rivals with a 59 Beyer.

Law Dog

He needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to draw in and this really wouldn't be a bad spot for him to step up in class again to take on N1X allowance rivals; leaning in another direction for the top spot, but not willing to count him out of the exotics mix.

Discreet Treat

His big early speed alone helps give him appeal and he's making his first start after a claim for a high win percentage barn that scores well in that category; De La Cruz has won with 9 of 32 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Steel Guitar

This gelding has a little bit of quality to his pedigree and like to see what he did in making it look very easy against five rivals in his latest outing; he's a threat on a top try and this barn has been hitting at a 35% clip in 2014. - Brian Pochman

Race 8

French Press

She has been given time since the clever debut; miss righted herself quickly in last after breaking outward; note place horse was clear for fun and graduated next out in a MSW with an 81 Beyer; like the series of drills since the debut; could click right back.

Libby'sluckycharm

Fresh and would not be shocked is she is on the muscle early; back to the original pilot and she has trained like the proverbial Swiss clock for this; value should be there; toss anything from a barn hitting at 38% at your own risk.

Avicii

Soph exited the live fray two back as 4 came out of that heat to win next out and show horse in last, who was well clear, won next out in a N1X with a 78 Beyer; toss races away from this venue and the form brightens; legit player once again.

Silk Purse

At least she got a feel of the surface; she also may have disliked the seal sloppy strip; and she hopped in the air to boot; 2nd and 6th finishers 4/10 won next out and the runner that was taken down on 3/8 took a Grade 3 in next and won a $73K stakes the end of May; barn continues to win with everything not nailed down and miss has a right to have a solid career as kin to This Ones for Phil, who won several stakes and nearly $800K.

State Visit

Miss flashed talent from Day One and now can move forward; hung wide two back on a surface she may have disliked, she has been fit enough to post a couple of drills since last win; looking at a trip where she will sit close up within striking distance; the one to beat.

Hunting Hill

Wraps, blinks, move to Hernandez and the biggest drop in the game worked to perfection; now the waters get steeper; she has a bit more speed than she just showed but there are others with designs on the lead; would lean toward watching a race vs. winners.

Spring Included

Agile enough to overcome bobbling in last, 3 exited the Keeneland finale to graduate next out; she did hook the repeater in the debut but there is speed inside and outside of her today; note sure the race sets up all that great for her.

My Christini

Only one poor race and maybe she was green that day; 5/17 place horse took a $50K N2L fray next out and 5th finisher 5/17 took a $30K N2L event in next with a 67 Beyer; she at least has the two races to draw from now; a slice may be the ceiling.

Awesome Houdini

Was quick enough to utilize the rail to kick off the career but was only a brief threat last time; finally off the fence, although she hooked a freak last time it's tough to pull the trigger here; one thing she has going for her is the blood as she is kin to Grade 3 winner and over $300K earner Awesome Act. - Brian Mulligan