Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for June 13, 2014

Race 1

Highroller Dave

He hasn't lost since he moved back to Amoss's barn and his last two came over this surface; he cuts back to a slightly shorter distance after romping at this level May 22 but he's compiled a 5-2-1 record from 9 starts going six furlongs so it shouldn't be an issue; the shape of the race should work in his favor so we'll make him the pick over Bamboneo who looks like the main threat.

Bamboneo

4-year-old's lone loss came in his debut and he's improved his Beyer Speed Figures in every race since; he led all the way in a similar race in his first start over this surface but he's versatile and doesn't really need the lead; horse that finished last in his latest posted back-to-back 80 Beyers at Indiana where he won a $14K claimer and finished second in a $40K optional race; he'll either be on the lead or stalking Da Don; big shot.

Da Don

He closed out his sophomore season in style with a win over a weak field of conditional allowance horses at Mountaineer - none have won a race since - but he hasn't made much of an impact in two starts this year; they went pretty fast in his latest, though, and he does want to be involved early; could be the one they have to catch but not sure how long he'll stick around; trainer knows how to win races but the past five years he's 3/39 at this track; can see him filling in the tri but that's about it.

Hancho

A wet track might help his chances but so far he's done his best work running over Polytrack; nice win at Keenland two back and he ran a decent race in his first start here; the 59 Beyer Speed Figure he earned isn't going to scare any of the logical contenders, though; maybe for a slice if it rains but he is going to have a hard time keeping up if it stays dry.

Mosquillo

Claimed out of his latest and the past five years Alfir is 2/12 or 17 percent when he runs them back the first time; horse that finished third came back to win a $5K conditional claimer at Balterra with a 55 Beyer Speed Figure; this is obviously a much-tougher spot and he'll need to improve dramatically to contend here; - Randy Goulding

Race 3

Tyler T

Twenty time loser has tasted defeat more times than the remainder of this field combined; his last 2 sprint tries at the level were solid and the numbers he earned in those heats play out well in here; his speed should have him involved from the bell and though he's had more than his share of chances, that makes him a player.

Kowboy Tuff

Ran big for second money in his first local start off the freshening after earning a career best number in his Oaklawn finale; gelding offered improved early lick in that last one so expect he'll be involved from the outset today and should find himself in the right spot when the chips are down in the lane; one to beat.

Hello Paradise

Gelding's debut run in Louisiana this winter was tough to get excited about and he's been idle about 5 months since the try; barn does boast a couple of recent second out winners but the interim drills aren't much and he's the first foal out of a dam who was winless from 2 tries; just watching him here.

Fronkonsteen

Sire gets 11% winners from his first out runners and the dam was a 2 time winner whose wins came either routing or going long; both sibs were multiple winners and 6 figure earners including G3 SP, SW and 137K earner Line Change; barn is going well and their first time Lasix runners hit at a big clip.

Code Blue Zone

Gets off the fence off a second off the board effort at the trip; gray hasn't shown much early foot and he's going to need to improve quite a bit to make up the ground he was defeated by one of these in each of his starts; can't back him in here.

Gridlock

Failed to impact when dropped to this level in his first local start and now he'll give it another shot; colt has yet to hit the board in 5 career tries and there's not a lot to suggest he'll go much better today for a barn that's had a rough local stand; price will be much better this time.

Blue Bull

Gray is offered for a cheap tag while making his first start since late last summer; new barn has done well of late with its newly acquired runners and its lone recent returnee did win; Ohio bred is worth a good look in his first start over a conventional dirt surface. - Steve Grabowski

Race 5

Northern Lion

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and dam won 6 of 28 starts for 74k, including 0-for-1 over turf; it remains to be seen if he can run his race over turf, but a number of his dirt starts have been solid.

March Reward

His turf form has been strong enough to stamp him a contender against these and he has a live look to him in this spot while making his second start back from a layoff after a useful return performance; note that this will also be his second start against winners.

Midas Dancer

Stakes placed colt finished right behind today's rival March Reward in his latest start and his overall turf form has been in line with what it will take to have a say in the outcome against these; however, he likes to get involved in the running early on and race shape might not be in his favor.

Heuston (IRE)

Lightly raced 5-year-old hasn't run poorly in his first two starts in America and it is interesting that this will be his first turf start since his final start in Ireland; third-place finisher from latest won next out at at Wo on 6/1 going 1m over turf vs. N1X rivals with an 83 Beyer.

Upkeep

Consistent performer can prove to be a threat in this event whether this race is run over turf or the main track, and note that he had some trouble in his latest start when finishing behind a couple of today's key rivals; he's out of a stakes winning dam who won 4 of 8 turf starts for 133k.

Lurego

Half-brother to G1 winner Turallure (6-21, $1.3 million over turf) ran well two and three starts back, and perhaps the rider switch to Leparoux is an indication that he's going to be ready to give a good account of himself; Leparoux has won with 3 of 8 (38%) mounts for this barn at the current meeting.

Trace Creek

Harperstown has been a poor influence as a turf sire but this stakes placed colt stepped up his game nicely in his turf debut in his latest outing when finishing close behind one of today's key rivals in Aqtaar; he can't be ignore while going out for a barn that is having a strong meeting.

Ghost to Ghost

His turf form has only been so-so at best, but he's making his first start after a claim for a barn that shows hitting at a 33% clip in that category and Bridgmohan has won with 4 of 9 (44%) mounts for this outfit at the current stand; third-place finisher from latest won next out at CD on 6/7 going 1 1/16m over turf vs. 40-35k N2L claimers with an 80 Beyer.

Get in Line

He's gotten the job done in half of his six turf starts and he figures to appreciate getting back over turf for this; however, it is of some concern to see the effort he showed up with in his first start away from the Maker barn in his latest outing; third-place finisher from latest won next out at CD on 5/23 going 1 1/16m vs. 80k OPC's with a 97 Beyer.

Aqtaar

Of the horses in the main body of this race, he boasts the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, and even though he's more of an early speed type, he has shown the ability to tap the brakes a little bit out of the gate if need be; he clearly merits top contender status.

Mio d'Oro

This race doesn't look like it will fall apart all that much if it has to be moved to the main track and this colt will have the look of a top contender if he gets to run in this spot; half-brother to Karlovy Vary (4-13, 448k) will have to be careful to avoid an early pace dispute.

Bitters 'n Bourbon

Outside of a race where he was eased, he's been a consistent performer, but he will need to be ready to take his game to another level if he's planning on threatening the top contenders in here; winner from latest won next out at Prm on 5/31 going 1m in a 75k stakes with an 84 Beyer.

Joedini

He was stakes placed as a 2-year-old and like to see the sharp winning performance he recorded in his first start back from a layoff in his latest outing; however, this has a chance to prove to be a tough step up in class for him.

Gran Chat

He earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure when placed back over turf in his latest otuing but that performance isn't anywhere near strong enough to suggest that he can handle competition of this caliber; he has the look of an outsider. - Brian Pochman

Race 6

Crack Your Whip

Several angles should move this filly forward today including the blinker addition and third start off the bench theory; should be able to stay within range and launch a better rally now if saving ground before the turn for home; should offer fine betting value as well.

Precocious Kitty

Decent showing first time out at Evangeline especially in light of the wide journey; her sire won two-thirds of the Triple Crown and 2.76 million overall; the dam went 3 for 9 earning 70K; there are no winning siblings to mention.

Rumba

Commendable try last month when tiring only in the final furlong; has run well in both appearances here (no known excuse to the Gulfstream defeat) and the latest half-mile breeze suggests she has maintained her edge; logical money player today.

Treaty Oak

Began her career and the course and distance and notice the trouble she encountered that day; prompting type of filly turned in a sharp workout only 8 days ago and that should enable her to be on or near the soft pace that is projected here; reverts to the original pilot.

Sugar Run Wild

Very tough beat last month when trying the claiming realm for the first time; makes the difficult return to the special weight class and therefore does not warrant a similar short price; the steady improvement on the Beyer scale is certainly a big plus, however.

Cora Mesa

Woke up in the latest placing, an ideal comeback race and prep for this; her portfolio suggests she is a solid trifecta player in this cast as she has the most route experience in the field; has to find a way to get into the race sooner.

Purse Strings

Although this is her first try going long, she has shown some fair early speed in both efforts and had a legitimate excuse in the maiden voyage of April; from excellent sire Tapit who won a G1 and 557K; the dam was zero for 7; there are no winning siblings to report; puzzling. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Cool Camper

This doesn't look like a bad spot for her first start as a 4-year-old, and it's worth noting the success that this high win percentage barn has had when returning horses from this type of a layoff; she's an interesting option to consider while racing with Lasix for the first time.

Sweet Tooth Sarah

Sire wins with approximately 15% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who was winless from one start, and it wasn't a turf start; maybe the move to turf can help, but not wild about what she's shown from five starts over dirt.

Nice Number

Pioneer of the Nile is off to a good start as a turf sire and this filly is a 1/2 to Proenza (3-12, 81k over turf); she's eligible to be ready for better at second asking and Hernandez has won with 4 of 12 (33%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Cat With a Twist

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and dam won once from three starts for 17k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 16k; she showed up with an improved run in her first start for this barn in her latest outing and like the idea of giving her a chance to see what she can do over turf.

Sweet Etta Lee

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from an unraced dam; from three starts, her best Beyer Speed Figure is 33, and her connections will hope for an improved performance with a surface switch.

Power Walk

She's basically been outrun at every point of call in her first two starts, and that includes a start over turf in her latest outing; runner up from latest won next out at CD on 6/1 going 1m over turf vs. MSW rivals with a 75 Beyer, and third finisher won next out at PID on 5/19 going 1m 70y vs. MSW rivals with a 62 Beyer.

Sagittars Stars

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his first-time starters and with approximately 14% of his turf starters, and dam won 2 of 6 starts for 26k, and she didn't make a turf start; this miss is a 1/2 to stakes placed Scatter a Star (2-6, 69k over turf) and Justoneatheguys (3-6, 123k over turf).

Adventure At Sea

Don't like to see that her most recent race wasn't one of her sharper starts, or that she's starting to look like the type that will hang around the maiden ranks for awhile, but her best race is clearly fast enough to make her a threat against these.

Race 8

Hiddai

Dropped into a maiden claimer without success now leaps back up to the MSW grade where she is aready 5-0-0-1; the 3-back winner repeated in a CD allowance with a 72 Beyer speed figure; stays on dirt but her best finish was over a synthetic surface and best Beyer on turf.

Impetuous Youth

The runner-up finisher from last Beyered 81 in a next-out CD-MSW win; good sprint-to-route trainer and is bred for distance; has not raced past 6F yet; sire went 2-for-2 in dirt routes including the 10F-Grade 1 Pacific Classic; G1-SW dam went 2-for-2 in dirt routes producing G2-placed Believe in A P who won 2-of-10 routes (267K).

Queen Daenerys

Projects as the main speed and the one to catch; she has never been loose on the lead which might help her form; so far has not shown the ability to last racing this far; the debut winner and runner-up finisher Beyered 79-66 in next-out LRL-optional-claiming and DEL-MSW wins.

Cali Star

Adds Lasix after chasing a repeater in a key race; the winner and 6th-place finishers from last Beyered 74-70 in next-out CD-optional-claiming and BEL-40K-maiden-claiming wins; the trainer has been an icy 1-for-22 at CD this meet but often fires strongly with fresh runners (22%); the 2-back winner repeated Beyering 84 winning a GP-OPC.

Temily

1st CD dirt start since May, 2013, in a MSW on a sloppy track finishing 5th-beaten more than 9 lengths; was beaten a dozen lengths in West Virginia but makes the trip to Louisville shooing high here trying to make amends off a 6-5 odds loss; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 62 in a next-out MNR-MSW win.

You Make Me Sing

1st start as a 3-year-old removing blinkers and returning to dirt; the workouts for this are not inspriing; prompted the pace 2nd-time out on turf which suggests we may see some speed out of her for this; will be taking a wait and see approach.

Unbridledexplosion

Has not raced past 7F yet; G1 sire earned 1M in dirt routes; dam was unraced producing 4-for-15 router Explosive Force (4-for-15, 37K); exits a field-best Beyer speed figure when rallying well at 1.5F shorter; the added yardage for this should work in her favor; the winner from last finished 3rd with a 67 Beyer in a next-out CD allowance loss. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Town Tour

Filly showed a new wrinkle last time coming from a bit off the pace; can never dismiss this kind of :21 flat speed; she has a right to get the trip as dam's lone win was a route; note show horse in last was over 3 clear; look for rider to send hard and try to steal it.

Wicked Draw

This is her surface; if you figure she needed her last, then you can make a case for a move forward; she has some semblance of speed but can't see her clearing here; the blood is there as kin Draw It won long and banked over $200K.

Delilahjane

Miss proved just how tough it can be to beat winners right back; life and death for the win and we really don't know how much it may have taken out of her; connections would love to see her mature like top kin, Grade 1 placed over $300K earner Fast Falcon.

Conspired

Zensational 1 for 13 with first-time turfers; sire won multiple G1s, lost only start at 2, never turfed; dam took 6 routes, lost only turf out; several multiple race winners in the family; several tried grass to no avail; she may have hated the slop last time; must hurry.

Annulment

Grinder has a decent turn of late foot; 5 clear in last despite slop being kicked in her face; this is her surface and connections thought enough of her to try the stakes 3 back; will be rolling late if at all.

Keening

Miss is coming to the race right; she has the 2 races to draw from now and note show horse in last was over 5 clear; far from disgraced in the grass debut, slight improvement and she will be a handful.

Kitten's Queen

The fact she won the debut gives her a shot to fire fresh; pushed along in last, she may be best served settling, trying to save ground and then make the one run; proven locally, she ran well in Graded company last year; contention goes deep.

Wicked Temper

She looked good winning the 2013 closer but has not been in the money since; bothered early last time in the short field, could see her sitting a decent trip, maybe trying to save ground mid-pack searching for room late; things need to break just right.

Moon Angel

Malibu Moon has hit with about 10% with his first-time grass runners in a 451-horse sample; sire graduated in second start at 2 at 5 furlongs on dirt for only win in 2-race career; dam was unraced; 4 of 6 siblings won; 2 cashed on grass and top kin Wacky Patty took a Grade 3, earned over $300K; don't ignore.

Twenty Three Darby

Elusive Quality about 8% with first-time turfers in a 428-runner study; sire won debut going long in the slop for fun as an older horse, won twice on grass; stakes placed 2 for 8 dam banked $35K, never turfed; both siblings won, neither tried grass; could see her pushing the issue, not sure she'll be around late.

Another Blue

Miss goes from one good barn to another; like the way she was extending late and note show horse was 7 clear; she could be more involved early with the blinks today; not without a look.

Assured

Wide in both starts this year; she has more speed than she flashed in last; she did beat the smallish field to graduate so she will have to adjust to a big field if she goes; would not want to jump on too short a number.

Hunting Hill

Wraps, blinks, switch to Hernandez and it worked to perfection last time; note place horse was 6 clear; the way she was closing in the 2014 closer is a good sign; this is a much tougher test though; would lean toward watching a race vs. winners.

Flashy Gal

Return was decent and note miss did win in that second career outing; hung 8 wide in last and could be looking at a similar fate today; like the series of drills since the last race; off a career Beyer, can't be dismissed.

Kimallosa

The race over the course can't hurt; fresh last time and sent along, she may be better off settling, trying to save a little ground and then get the first run on the deep closers; she has been handled by a couple of today's foes; clever barn due for a bit of luck, check out the 12 slices this meet.

Cherokee Beads

The sprint last time could serve as the ideal prep; it took her awhile to figure it out but she can be her own worse enemy with limited speed; solid drill on the 4th is a good sign; could make some noise here.

Tap Twenty One

She fits at this level; wide in last pair and note show horse 2 back return to cash; she has trained solidly of late and barn has been winning in bunches; proven fresh, respect. - Art Gropper