Churchill Downs: Closer Looks for June 12, 2014

Race 2

Alert and Perky

Rallied to win a $30K maiden race despite getting off to a poor start but not sure how tough a field it was; the horse that finished second came back to flop as the heavy chalk in a $20K maiden claimer and the third horse finished 3rd by 15 lengths for $20K in his next start; $138K stakes winning dam won 6 sprints; lone sib's only win came on turf; prefer others.

Metro Dreamer

Looks like the one they will have to catch and he is going to appreciate the easier company after trying first-level allowance types in his first start with winners; he never really got into the race after getting bumped around at the start so he had a big excuse; horse that finished third in his win May 1 won a straight maiden race here last Sat.; big shot.

Mr. Right

5-year-old has yet to get off to a clean start and he spotted the field quite a few lengths when he got off to a slow beginning in his latest; he still ran a big race to finish second at this level and he won't mind having an extra furlong to work with; he came back with a solid half-mile move June 2 and if he gets it right leaving the gate he could be a handful; that seems like a big if, though.

Street Call

Both times he ran for a tag he made an impact and he won a $50K maiden race over this surface coming off a two-month layoff last year; this has been a longer break but the past five years Nafger has a 29 percent strike rate with horses coming back in 180 days or more; nice to see Leparoux accept the call and you get 2 for 1 with Recalling Memories as part of the package.

Recalling Memories

Second half of the Bloch-owned entry is also coming off a lengthy layoff and the past five years Wilkes is a respectable 12 percent with horses coming back from a break of 180 days or more; first time for a tag and he'll appreciate the easier company; horse that finished third in his last race on dirt won a first-level allowance race here with an 86 Beyer Speed Figure; not out of the question.

County Corrections

He didn't make any mistakes as the odds-on favorite in a $40K maiden claimer going this distance and the horse he beat came back to finish a solid third in a maiden special weight race on the lawn; the 84 Beyer Speed Figure he earned stands out and he has enough speed to stay in touch with whatever happens up front; Calhoun having a strong meet with 31 percent of his starters winning; the pick.

Swiss Confederate

Nice win two back and it looked like he might do some damage in is latest in a first-level allowance race but he lost any chance he had when he almost came to a full stop after steadying hard at the 7/16th pole; he should get a better trip from the outside post and this figures to be an easier spot; he's also reunited with Borel who was aboard for his win over next-out winner Barry Shortpants; playable at what should be a decent price. - Randy Goulding

Race 4

Happy Everafter

High-percentage fresh trainer can help the cause trying to turn the tables on Laser Cat after posting her lowest Beyer speed figure since September; the 3-back winner repeated in an FG-optional claimer with an 82 Beyer; lost to Laser Cat in her only other CD grass attempt; even though she gets a positive 5-pound weight swing from last have her ranked a notch below the top contenders.

Laser Cat

Today's 122 pounds is the highest-weight assignment of her career; lost a 4-horse win photo in latest when favored; she was defeated by the runner-up finisher who Beyered 81 in a next-out AP-allowance win; she loves CD grass 1-for-1 here when racing close to the lead; her style has changed into more of a mid-pack closer; looms a logical contender for win honors.

More Than Beauty

Sire is 73-for-541 with 1st-turf starters; is out of a 1-for-3 grass dam (63K); 2 foas to race on turf are 0-for-3 combined; has set the pace in 3 of her 6 starts and projects to be one of the main speed here with Gift Receipt; returned with a career-best Beyer on dirt while the cutback in distance should help her carry her speed some; know her early but unsure about late

Gift Receipt

Try to catch me racing on the lead in 10 of 11 career races; she was favored in last 2 including latest locally on dirt; she is best on grass; lost by more than 4 lengths to Laser Cat in Florida on the green and has to get by her to land a share here; the 3-back show finisher Beyered 92-89 in next-out 100K-stakes win.

Costly

Good-grass form last summer; was primed for this in stakes company; the main issue is her best surface on paper is a wet-main track which she did not handle well at all in last; the 2-back runner-up finisher Beyered 66 in a next-out TP-starter alw. win.

Magical Moon

Exits a best-last-race Beyer speed figure when racing well in defeat in 3 straight stakes; superb-long-layoff trainer adds to the appeal; back to a good level for her as she returns to CD grass at 5F the winning distance and surface of her latest victory deeating the runner-up finisher who Beyered 91 in a next-out SAR-OPC win then repeated in a KD-125K stakes with a 92 speed figure; the pick.

Trippin' Along

The connections thought they made a good buy racing in a 100K stakes 1st off the claim; the winner from last repeated in a BEL-100K stakes with an 89 Beyer; defeated the 2-back show finisher who posted a 83-81 speed figures in 2 next-out GP-OPC wins; both wins at 5F on grass; her late-closing punch and getting up in time is the concern; new rider wins 26% for the trainer since 2013; the one to beat.

Dream Softly

1-for-1 on grass handing lesser 20 days ago; stalked the pace nicely in latest and has some speedy targets she is eyeing up for this; the 2-back winner repeated with an 81 Beyer then Beyered 91 in a 100K-OP stakes victory; she beat the 3-back runner-up finisher who graduated next out in a TP-MSW race with a 55 speed figure; has to pass the class test.

Jamaican Smoke

Expected her to fire out of the gate in the Grade 3 loss but she showed nothing from start to finish; today's class level should be a lot more to her liking; Main Track Only entry's CD dirt win and field-best Beyer was accomplished back in 2012 scoring right on the lead; Dream Softly, Magical Moon and Costly also own strong-dirt credentials. - Art Gropper

Race 5

Steel Cut

Moves to the fence for her first start off the claim by this sharp outfit and she'll be offered for a fraction of what they paid for her today; filly has shown some early foot and the first couple of numbers she threw down were more than good enough to run away from this bunch, but there's a reason they are willing to take a big hit on her here; one to beat at a short price but it may prove tough to swallow.

Miss Delstar

Didn't offer much in either of her local sprint tries when sent off at big prices each time; filly did show a little bit of early foot last time but that doesn't appear to be a sign that she'll move forward to be more effective in this spot; have to look elsewhere for the winner.

La Rue Lady

Debuted in a key heat but ran about as well as a 66-1 shot would be expected; maybe the experience helped and the dam was a 6 time sprint winner; lone sib was 0 for 1 on the track; don't know much about the barn but a capable journeyman pilot will get aboard.

Littlebitcranky

Triple bug sticks on a mare who will be making her 40th career start in this spot; she's run some of her better ones while coming from off the pace sprinting and though her last wasn't so good, maybe she gets a better pace setup in this spot; capable of grabbing a share of this.

Jock's Girl

Drops in half again after catching slop and getting caught in a wide spot in her local debut run; filly ran pretty well against better in her prior crack on dirt so maybe she'll have more to offer over a dry track today; given the continued class relief she's certainly a threat.

She's Messi

Newcomer goes for a low profile outfit that doesn't boast any recent luck right out of the box; 4 year old is by a sire who gets 9% first out winners from his offspring and the dam won 4 races and 117K prior to dropping SP, 6 time winner (5 on turf) and 122K earner Fleur de Lilly.

Fredette

She's done very little in most of her starts but now she'll drop in for her cheapest price while returning from a short break; she did show some speed here last fall and maybe the class relief helps do the trick in her return to the venue, but her lone decent effort came going long and it has been a while since she's tackled one turn; consider.

Don't Tell Me No

Showed speed before fading against a better bunch in her Keeneland debut last fall and has been idle since; filly is by a dam who took 2 sprints before dropping several winners including 2 who each won 6 times sprinting so she comes from a family that wins at this trip and she has a right to be better with the initial race experience behind her; nice to see a to pilot stick with her; don't overlook in her first on dirt.

Miss Kris

Wasn't a factor in any of her 3 MSW starts at lesser venues and now she's in for a cheap tag; she's kin to 5 sprint winners so there is some ability on the dam's side, but she's going to need to show up with a lot better than she has in order to have a legitimate say in the outcome here. - Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Tapitsphere

From red-hot sire Tapit, who won a G1 and 557K (his offspring have scored in 63 out of 479 debuts); the dam won 1 of 7 attempts and 33K; among the winning siblings is 75K earner War Wolf; latest breeze was fair.

Mercer Mill Mae

All kinds of trouble in her maiden voyage last month at Pimlico while going to post at 8 to 5; her sire won a G2 and 725K while the dam won 2 of 13 and 90K; this is her only foal to compete; faces the boys today and gets weight concession.

Rakeitin

Newcomer hails from G3 victor Canadian Frontier who amassed 253K and whose progeny have won 8 percent of their first races; the dam went zero for 2; winning siblings include 46K earner Perfect Agility.

Goo Bird

A long set of half-mile workouts to consider; his sire won multiple G1s and 2.32 million; descendants of Summer Bird are zero for 1 as far as winning their first try; the dam never raced; sib to 71K bankroller Barn Knee.

Unbridled Graduate

Respectable showing in his first run considering the trouble involved; his sire won 10 of 35 starts and 258K while the dam never competed; there are no winning siblings to mention; can upgrade with clean getaway.

Stonebriar

Raced evenly on a wide path in his first venture; his sire won 4 of 8 and 89K while the dam involved never competed; among the winning siblings is 137K earner I Stand alone; steady breeze regimen since that first performance.

Lockport

Extremely consistent workout pattern during the last month or so; the colt's sire was a G3 winner who captured 326K; offspring of Temple City are zero for 1 in debuts; the mom went zero for 9; among the winning sibs is 83K earner Love My Life.

Conquest Harlanday

Sired by multiple G1 winner Harlan's Holiday who captured 3.63 million and whose progeny have won 70 out of 501 initial starts; the dam went zero for 4; among the winning siblings is 129k earner Calgary Cat; upbeat a.m. move on 5/30.

Crowned Majestic

Light work tab for this new face; see Rakeitin, above, for information and statistics regarding the same sire; the dam won 7 of 60 races and 61K; there are no winning siblings to mention; outermost post is a concern. - Jim Kachulis

Race 7

Rei

Freshened since pushing decent pace in last; fact he won debut gives him a shot to fire fresh; beaten by repeater in the 2013 closer and the winner 2/22 cashed next out in a $50K optional, was out of the money in a Grade 3; note top Beyer was in a return situation; don't ignore.

Mutasaawy

Took him time for the light to go on but he ran his eyeballs out in first try vs. winners; he has shown a decent turn of late foot and note the place horse in the maiden breaker cashed next out in a MSW with a 76 Beyer; the hotter the pace the better for this racer.

Mysterious Circle

Circular Quay one for 28 with first-time turfers; Grade 1 winning sire took debut at 2, was out of the money in only turf out, banked over $1.5 million; dam 2nd twice in best results; all 3 siblings won; one cashed on grass once, one banked $185K; there are some stamina concerns as he has lost ground in every race including the lone win.

Squall King

Proven on the course and he has the 2 races to draw from now; place and show horses in last won at this level next out; he has the two races to draw from in last and the blinks didn't help much last time; connections would love to see him start acting like top kin Finnegans Wake, who won nearly $500K; needs a turn around.

Colonel Krenz

Pressed and faded first time vs. winners but last race was much better; colt has more tactical speed than he just showed and he was getting to the winner last time; surprise package.

Branded Hand

Troubled in 3 of the last 4 races and he did make a nice middle move to get within a length and a quarter of the lead; shades can't hurt and Goncalves got a chance to figure him out; he should have his sea legs under him by now; contention goes deep.

Casino Dan

Hung wide from the marooned slot, like the spacing of the return drills; they were all together two back, sometimes the sign of an ordinary race but the winner of the 2013 closer has won 4 times since, the last by a nose in a Grade 3 at FG with an 89 Beyer; backers have to hope they go bonkers early and the race falls apart.

Hypothetical

Beat one horse at 59-1 in the last return effort; one for 18 is a tough number to bet into no matter how you slice it; he has at least won locally; still not sold on chances.

Piceance

Hung 3 wide the other time this pilot was aloft; if you figure he just needed the last then one can make a case for a move forward; note he was 5th in that return effort on 2/9 of last year and won next out; interesting.

Honor the Kitten

Only one off effort and he was troubled that day; homebred has to prove he can win on grass but note show horse was over 4 clear in the solid effort two back; Leparoux got a chance to figure him out; another threat in an absolute scramble.

Mio d'Oro

Brings speed to the party, note show horse in last was over 5 clear; decent move last Saturday suggests he is feeling pretty good about himself; 2/2 winner took a $25K optional next out, then was 3rd beaten over 4 in a Grade 2; major threat if allowed to suit up.

Mosquillo

This is an ambitious placement; last couple of wins just against $5K claimers; decent blowout last Sunday; passing.

Kowboy Boots

Stakes placed runner is a logical threat; bothered in the lane when in tough on the cut back in last; he's trained steadily for this and the 4/12 winner repeated in a $100K Pimlico stakes with an 81 Beyer; can't fault those that give him another shot at glory.

Northern Lion

Lion Heart about 9% with first-time turf runners in a 258-horse sample; sire was unbeaten in 3 juvenile outs, took multiple G1s, banked over $1.3 million, never turfed; dam took 6 sprints, lost only turf try; all 3 siblings won, 2 tried turf to no avail; 3/14 place horse cashed next out in a $25K optional, lost next pair; could see him pushing the splits, not sure he'll be around at the end.

Lurego

Pushed wide from the outside slot in last, not sure to make of the drill last Saturday; respect everything from this barn but runner has some things to prove.

Trace Creek

May have to find a way to deal with Upkeep among others here; the grass debut was not all that bad and note he wasw bumped two back; rates upset glance.

Upkeep

Been in the money half the time since entering this barn; 5/3 winner repeated at this level and the place horse 5/3 took a $30K starter next out; troubled in 3 of last 4, he was inching toward the winner two back despite the troubled start; value should be there. - Brian Mulligan

Race 8

Rhinestone Diva

She's probably going to need to see a few of these show up with less than their best to meet success in her first start against winners and she might find herself feeling heavy early pace pressure after breaking from the rail post; her dam was a multiple stakes winner while winning 10 of 27 starts for 328k, and all of her wins were earned sprinting.

Hot and Dangerous

The 71 Beyer Speed Figure she earned for her latest performance represents the best last race figure in this field and she fits right in at this 30-25k N2L claiming level; Rocco has won with 5 of 18 (28%) mounts for this barn in 2014.

Little Norwegian

She ran well in breaking her maiden over the main track here two starts back and she won't mind dropping in class for her second start against winners; note that Mena has been aboard for a couple of her better efforts.

Blutadda

She hasn't finished worse than third through four starts but she's probably going to need to see a slow early pace develop to have her best chance in this spot, and without a couple of key scratches, that doesn't look like it will happen in this event.

Perfect Setting

She has some respectable form on her card to consider and like the idea of her going route-to-sprint for the first time in her career, and this is a barn that scores well in that category; she deserves to be listed among the contenders.

Stealth Bolt

Since winning her career debut, she's struggled to make much of an impression, and she's obviously going to need to show us her best stuff yet to get over on the top contenders in this one; she looks like more of an outsider.

Lil Honey Badger

She shows up for a barn and rider that win a lot of races together and she earned a career best Beyer Speed Figure in her first start back from a layoff in her latest outing; she has a live look to her while dropping in with 30-25k N2L claimers.

R Next Escapade

There is some concern when seeing the time off she's needed between recent starts, and that her most recent outing wasn't anywhere near her best, but she's clearly capable of showing up with a competitive effort if she can reproduce one of her better efforts. - Brian Pochman

Race 9

Top Priority

Sire wins with approximately 11% of his turf starters and G3 winning dam won 6 of 17 starts for 218k, including 0-for-1 over turf; this gelding is a full to G1 winner Tiz Miz Sue (8-32, $1.1 million, including 0-for-2 over turf); interesting to see his new connections go right to turf with him and attract the services of Albarado.

Xaverian

His lack of early speed is the main concern, but his first two career starts over turf were encouraging performances, and he's out of a minor stakes winning dam who won 9 of 33 starts for 281k, and he's a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Delicate Dynamite (7-27, 368k, including 3 of 14 turf starts for 112k); winner from latest won next out at Wo on 5/25 going 1 1/16m in a 140k stakes with an 82 Beyer, and third finisher won next out at Wo on 5/10 going 1 1/16m vs. MSW rivals with a 71 Beyer.

R K's Afleet

Sire wins with approximately 9% of his turf starters and this is the first foal from a dam who won 3 of 8 starts for 40k, and she didn't make a turf start; he enters this race off of a useful career debut and note what this barn has been doing lately with horses trying turf for the first time.

Iced Over

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his turf starters and dam was unraced; this colt is a 1/2 to L'Aziza (4-19, 44k, including 1 of 3 turf starts for 5k); turf and distance are concerns and this might prove to be a tough step up in class for him.

First Beach

Two of his three starts over turf have been solid performances and he's out of a dam who won two of four turf starts for 69k; of the horses in the main body of this race, he boasts the best last race Beyer Speed Figure.

Wildlife Artist

Like to see what he did in his first two career starts racing over turf and not going to be too hard on him for the sub par performance over turf just two starts back; the drop into the maiden claiming ranks might prove to be a key for him and it doesn't hurt to see Lanerie in the pedals.

Boss Man Mike

His early speed helps give him some appeal, but he has struggled to maintain a forward gear late in his races, and it might be worth noting the presence of Lanerie aboard another in here; leaning toward others.

Wanstead Gardens

Sire wins with approximately 8% of his first-time starters and with approximately 11% of his turf starters, and stakes winning dam was three-for-three for 95k during her career, and she didn't make a turf start; this colt is a full to Lukas Alley (3-5, 124k, including 1 of 2 turf starts for 39k); this barn can have one ready to go long over turf at first asking.

Havlicek

Not wild about Majestic Warrior as a turf sire, but this gelding looked pretty good in his three starts over turf as a 3-year-old; he has a shaky look to him with a long layoff in play and a drop in class, but he still commands respect as a contender.

Posture

He's shown enough in his two turf attempts to be given the look of a top contender in this spot and he might find himself sitting a favorable trip just off of the early speed of Boss Man Mike; this barn has been quiet at this meeting, but they appear to have a live one to send out in this spot.

Ready Mecke

He needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to draw in and he was beaten by one of today's key rivals in First Beach in his latest start; a minor award appears to be the ceiling.

Kilo

He looks like a runner who can benefit from having a couple of starts behind him, and he's out of a stakes winning dam who won 3 of 12 turf starts for 104k; note the success that this barn has been having with starters in maiden claiming races.

Delta Golf Alpha

If he draws in, he'll own the best last race Beyer Speed Figure in here, and this colt is out of a dam who was multiple graded stakes placed racing over turf; maybe there's something to be said for him looking like the type that might hang around the maiden ranks for a while, but going to respect his chances against these.

Archway to Heaven

His form has taken a turn for the better since being placed over turf three starts ago, and like the idea of him meeting up with maiden claiming competition for the first time, but an extreme outside post awaits in the event that he draws in. - Brian Pochman