Churchill Downs: Brilliant Rescue looks good as the favorite, but consider carefully

LOUISVILLE, Ky. – When Brilliant Rescue races in Sunday’s ninth race at Churchill Downs, a $43,000 first-level allowance, she will look as appealing to bettors as Girl Scout cookies would to someone who skipped lunch.

Before giving into temptation, horseplayers are advised to check the statistics of Brilliant Rescue’s trainer, Steve Asmussen, who typically wins at a high percentage, but not with first-out maiden winners like Brilliant Rescue that are seeking a repeat victory. According to Daily Racing Form ’s Formulator database, he is 4 for 43 over the past five years with such types returning in allowances and optional claimers, and a $2 wager on each would have returned an average of 55 cents.

Many trainers struggle in this category – understandable given these horses usually face more experienced runners and are often regression candidates after sometimes “running scared” to victory in their debuts.

Brilliant Rescue obviously could win, but past statistics indicate it is a better long-term proposition to try to beat a horse like her, despite what she showed in her lone start Sept. 15 at Churchill Downs, when she rolled to a 6 3/4-length victory, earning a race-best 89 Beyer Speed Figure.

A 3-year-old daughter of Purge bought for $125,000 at OBS last year, she is owned by Clark Brewster and will be ridden again by Ricardo Santana Jr.

Those looking to try to beat Brilliant Rescue, the 9-5 morning-line favorite, have 11 options in a full field that races seven furlongs.

Anusara and Moonlight Caper appear the best upset candidates. Both come off a runner-up finish in an allowance and are main-track winners at Churchill Downs.

Anusara, a 4-1 shot on the morning line, won a maiden $50,000 race in her debut May 19 at Churchill, and has since had a trio of on-the-board finishes in allowances. Of those post-maiden starts, a fast-charging runner-up finish by a nose at Keeneland Oct. 10 was her best. Coming under an early drive while racing inside, she seemed to be struggling on the Polytrack, only to grow encouraged once angled out and placed clear of kickback from the leaders. Leandro Goncalves rides for trainer Greg Foley.

Moonlight Caper is another that had a near miss last out, finishing a half-length short of victory when second in a Sept. 29 allowance going a one-turn mile at Churchill. The 79 Beyer she posted for that effort is the second-best dirt speed figure in the race behind Brilliant Rescue’s 89.