Churchill: Closer Looks for October 30, 2013

Race 1

Angel in Disguise

Attended the pace until the stretch in her first turf test; her sire won multiple G1s on the main and 3.92 million while the dam scored in 2 of 23 appearances earning 54K; among the winning siblings is 47K earner Patchen Prince.

Granny Grump

Latest try over the course featured a very soft middle fraction; the previous placing at Indiana was solid but the final time of that one was ordinary; odds will not be as generous today as they have been in previous ventures.

Ain't She Classy

She had a legit excuse in that first defeat; here sire won multiple G1s and 915K while the dam won 1 of 15 and 65K; among the winning siblings is 261K bankroller Putmeinyourwill; shows only mild work tab this month.

Amaoldfashiondgirl

Although yet to finish in the money, she has suffered through some bad racing luck and now tries the claiming world for the first time; can upgrade here with both class and post position relief in her favor.

Bourbon Beauty

Finished midpack in latest run and did flash some fair early speed in her maiden voyage here; her sire won a G1 and 419K while the mom won 4 of 46 and 63K; sib to 3K earner Stolen Kiss; should be on or near the modest tempo today.

Go to Work

Considering she broke slowest of all, she turned in a fair wide effort in her debut of 2 weeks ago; her sire won multiple G1s and 1.77 million; the dam won 7 of 61 and 159K; sib to 207K earner Wriggle; note trainer's slate with second-timers.

Housewife

If she does not stumble again, it looks like she will be a major player today; her sire won a G1 and 612K; the dam was without a tally in 2 attempts; among the winning siblings is 122K earner Ronin Dax; should be in the mix.

Something Blue

Raced evenly first time out on the green; her sire won multiple G3s and 2.58 million while the dam was unraced; among the winning sibs is 82K earner Rainier Missile; expert trainer/jockey combination to consider.

Ride Sal Ann Ride

Bound to be caught wide again today but has shown modest improvement in the last pair; came up empty in her 2 previous attempts over the course but blinker introduction recently has helped her somewhat; mixed signals.-Jim Kachulis

Race 2

Afleeting Beauty

Declining-Beyer speed figure pattern since the turf loss; the blinkers coming on 2 races ago helped her finish better but the Beyers did not improve; figures to save ground midpack then make one run; the runner-up finisher from last Beyered 67 in her next-out KEE-15K-maiden claiming win.

Top Knot

The big-gate speed shown in some oher losses over the summer was completey missing from last when posting a career-low Beyer; 4-time beaten-betting favorite switches barns and coasts while working on KEE synthetic for this dirt start; April race on synthetic a today's distance is a field-best Beyer; has never raced this low and seems the one to catch if back to best game.

Mama Martini

Brief speed in latest and continues with a light-weight assignment while stretching out she is clearly a major-pace factor after a dull effort when favored; had no answers for Littlebitcranky over today's oval 2-back 38 days ago; know her early but unsure about late.

Wild Streak

52 days since just missing in her 1st start on the CD main track with a career-best Beyer; off latest sure could have used today's extra half furlong in last; big-style change in last off the fades and keeps the rider who was able to get her to relax in latest; posted a good-breeze for this; the 2-back show runner graduated next out in an IND-6K-maiden claimer with a 42 Beyer; plenty of upside.

Cotten Alley

Did not want any parts of a synthetic surface in last when troubled posting a career-best Beyer; her only dirt race in July represents a career-best speed figure; wish her 3 other CD losses were more enticing; the 3-back runner-up finisher graduated next out in a MNR-MSW event with a 60 Beyer.

Mrs. Darcy

Returns to dirt with a new trainer who is 1-for the last-15 1st-time out with newly-acquired runners; 1st time on dirt with a mild-main track worktab for this; steps up in claiming price off a loss which is not a good win angle but she has improved her finish in each career start.

Palio Colonia

Turf start at today's distance did give the impression she wanted to travel this far although it did yield a career-best Beyer; last dirt route was a last-place finish and a zero speed figure; 32 days to regroup off the fade; others appeal more.

K to the Croft

2 races ago she was so well thought of by the connections she went in a stakes race; her synthetic-surface start for last was an even finish but produced a career-best Beyer; flashed speed in her 1st two races off the claim but was defeated by Cotton Alley 3-back her last dirt route while the runner-up finisher graduated next out in a MNR-MSW event with a 60 Beyer.

Fleet Feet

Trailed throughout in her only other dirt race posting a career-low Beyer when defeated by the runner-up finisher who graduated next out in an IND-MSW race with a 55 Beyer; best speed figure was posted in a turf sprint which is clearly her best game with a lot to prove on dirt.

Littlebitcranky

Ground-losing trip projected today breaking widest; 2 races at today's distance both on turf were 5th and 7th-place finishes but one of those efforts produced her career-best Beyer; was screaming out for more distance in last and gets it here; has to get by Wild Streak who rallied past her in last and the added distance seems to favor her main rival.-Art Gropper

Race 4

Fivefeethi Nrisen

She ran off and hid the last time she ran on dirt at Ellis Park and the horse she beat, who is also in this field, came back to romp in her next start at Mountaineer; she almost won a bottom-level maiden race here last year so she should appreciate the surface switch and the move to a route after not being much of a factor in her last two sprints on turf and poly; the price should be right, consider or the exotics.

Bow to No One

She had a rough trip when she finished behind Midnight Fit in a cheaper nonwinners of two here Sept. 22 but came back with solid effort at Indiana where Midnight Flute finished fourth as the chalk; she saved a lot of ground while Flute had a wide trip; she's been part of the tri in her last six so at the least she should be part of any exotics ticket;

Majestic Shoes

Comes out of the same race as Bow to No One and she made a nice move along the rail on the stretch turn but hung late; first start for Ice and the past five years he has a 12% strike rate with new shooters; looks like she'll need to imrove to make a serious impact.

Gunner Gal

She was no match for Fivefeethi Nrisen two back but she was coming off a layoff and she came back with a sharp score in her next start at Mountaineer; she was allowed to set a moderate pace, however, and they figure to be going a lot faster here; her confidence should be high but others look more attractive.

Flying Rapunzel

Could be the one they have to catch and she figures to move forward in her second start back following a layoff; lone try on dirt came at Ellis where she got away poorly and then rushed up to reach contention but couldn't catch the two front runners; she did hold on well to finish third and it wouldn't be surprising to see her stick around a long time here if she breaks sharply; contender.

Midnight Flute

Was claimed when Calhoun dropped her into a conditional claimer two back and that was a pretty dull effort in her first start for new connections as the chalk at Indiana; she did have a wide trip, though, and maybe she didn't care for her new surroundings; she could rebound with a better effort here but they don't give them away and there was probably a reason Calhoun let her go for $15K; prefer others.

Wish Keeper

Her Beyer Speed Figures have improved lately and the last time she ran on dirt here she finished a distant second in a key race; the winner won her next four starts while posting Beyer's in the high 80's and mid 90's; she would look a lot better without the layoff but she's had a few decent works; another one for the exotics.

School Mascot

She ran okay in her first two starts on dirt at the Fairgrounds so she shouldn't mind the surface switch after running on turf in her last five starts; the layoff following a dull race is a concern but since 2009 Foley has an 18% strike rate with horses going from allowance to claiming that were coming back between 61-180 days; she is certainly going to appreciate the easier company; the pick.

Yankee Diva

Lightly raced 3-year-old filly looked good winning at Keeneland for Radcliffe who claimed her out of just her second start at Ellis for $10K; not sure how much Lasix helped or if she just wanted more distance; whatever it was she took a huge step forward, has worked well since; and both her older and younger siblings are multiple winners so there could be plenty of upside potential; don't sell short.-Randy Goulding

Race 5

Callingahardten

Switches surfaces after doing little on the drop to this level over synthetic footing; he owns turf numbers from earlier in the year that fit here and maybe he just didn't want to be on the lead 2 back over this course; local winner is worth a look at a price.

No Play

Tries his softest set in some time after tiring from a tracking spot in his return from the freshening on the main track; he's another who ran fast enough on the green earlier in the year to step with these and he does have a right to be better with his return try behind him.

Beer Garden

Returns to claimers for the first time since taken by this outfit in the spring; 4 year old was solid in his trip victory over the course in early summer but his recent short priced tries have been pretty poor; nice to see a top pilot get aboard and maybe the cut back helps but in his current form he's a big question mark.

Lucky Rave (GB)

Six year old has had his history of issues but he looked to be a new runner when returning from 16 months on the shelf with a career best Beyer score on the Indiana Downs green; after being given some time off that one he failed to impact a tougher set at Kentucky Downs, but maybe he finds this bunch more to his liking and he does boast a couple of recent local breezes for a barn that does solid work with its fresh runners; consider.

Green Secret

Twenty time winner makes his local debut fresh off an open lengths trip score over the Arlington turf; 9 year old has sharp tactical foot which should help him sit a great spot in a field in which no one has won as many times on the green as he has; normal effort makes him a big threat.

Hypothetical

Hasn't been a big threat of late while trying allowance runners and now he'll drop in for a tag in his return to this course; low percentage outfit gets him a weight break with the double bug named and maybe that helps shake him up, but his lack of early interest often leaves him to make his run in a wide spot; have to side with others for the money spots.

Jimmy Simms

Barn's second runner in here makes his first start in nearly 10 months while dropping in for his cheapest price yet; his more recent form has certainly declined, but those tries came against a lot better than he will catch here and he was quite good on the lawn last year; local winner goes for an outfit that brings them back ready; contender.

Double Rah Rah

Tries weaker while switching surfaces off a sloppy route try at Indiana Downs; he was solid in beating conditioned claimers in the main track sprint here 2 back but he's winless on the green and doesn't appear to post a threat to the more accomplished surface foes he'll catch today; passing.

Safari Artie

Gelding's speed should be sharpened for the stretch back out on the surface switch after pressing the pace against a bit better from the Keeeland fence; he's taken 3 of his last 4 on the green from close range and his early foot plays out well in this heat; can't count him out in his local debut.

Barzini

Outside drawn gelding wasn't beaten much from a similar draw while facing allowance runners on the Keeneland green; maybe he's tighter second back from the freshening and he did break his maiden at 2 turns so he is capable of handling the trip; barn's second runner in here hasn't run so fast from a figure standpoint but he does have a right to move forward some today.

Dream Man

AE tries a softer bunch after encountering trouble and doing his better running as the wire approached at Ellis a couple of months ago; gray boasts a nice late kick and he'll switch to a top pilot for this, but he'll start from a tough post and could be subjected to another wide run if he draws in.

Motor City

AE drops tries the lawn for the first time in a while after offering little on the Keeneland main track; maybe the class relief helps but he didn't have much to offer at all the lone time he stepped over this footing; just watching if he gets to go.

Stormy Going

AE didn't do much late after breaking from an outside slot against a lot better on the Keeneland green earlier in the month; he was pretty solid from close range on the green this summer and maybe this is a better spot for him, but the outside draw won't help him get back on track.

Strike Impact

AE is mired o the list ad not likely to get in after fading from a wide spot in his local return; he does like the local sod and has been stepping with tougher for a long time; maybe he gets in the mix for a share if he somehow draws into this heat.-Steve Grabowski

Race 6

Bad Student

Cozy slot now after being hung 5 wide; 1 for 17 dam cashed sprinting; this is her first to race; gelding kept his legs moving with the drill last Saturday and his top Beyer was local; he should have his sea legs under him by now and rates long look in all the slots.

Fourosixoone

Beyers going in the right direction and he was inching toward the winner late; 3 for 20 dam wonlong once; lone half bro to race Hour Man took 2 sprints; with his style, things will always have to break just right; runner has some things to iron out.

The Duck

Stall 7 for 36 or 19% with sprint to route maiden claimers and 17 others ran in the money; don't be too harsh aobut debut as he could not stand up in the off going; 3 of sire's 7 wins were routes; 2 for 17 dam did win routing once; several multiple race winners in the family including Grade 3 winner and 9 time route winner It Happened Again, who earned over $600K; must find a way to turn the tables on the Maker charge among others.

Palladian

At least the colt got a taste of the route game in last; show horse in the debut graduated next out in a $51K stakes at Charles Town, then was 2nd there beaten just over a length in a $58K stakes on 10/19; dam lost only start; 4 of 5 siblings won; several won routing; Court got a chance to figure out what's under the hood; must pick it up.

Ship to Shore

Maker good with this move; he is 22 for 81 or 27% the last 5 years with sprint to route maiden claimers; youngster passed tired horses after sluggish start; sire was sprint only; dam was unraced; 3 of 5 siblings won including stakes winner, double route winner and near $400K earner Gallant; October drills are solid, he has a right to flash more speed on the stretch out; should be right there when the smoke clears.

Northern Empire

Lack of speed is a genuine concern; wonder how high the expectations can be for this $3,500 purchase?; would think long and hard before taking too short a number.

Roll All Knight

Realistically placed as a $37K purchase, if he can run at all, he figures to show it here; Stewart 2 for 11 the last 5 years with juvenile going MSW to maiden claiming and 2 ran second; millionaire sire proved stamina taking Haskell; 3 for 10 dam earned nearly $100K, was sprint only; all 3 siblings won; all were sprint only; needs a turn around.

Achoo Again

Brief threat in bow, but the eased line last time is an issue; both of sire's wins came going long on grass; both of dam's wins were routes in the minor leagues; this is her first to race; the drop can't hurt but runner may need even softer foes.

Rooster Cruiser

Lukas one for 8 the last 5 years with juveniles going sprint to route in a maiden claimer; that runner paid over $19 and 4 others ran in the money; backers got to scream for about 46 seconds in last; sire was sprint only; dam won 3 times routing on grass; this is her first to race; at least runner showed some semblance of speed last time; look for rider to gun and try to steal it.

Kenrado

Colt hooked clear winner in the local debut, but never thrilled to see defeats for a tag when entered back in this league; still in for $20K more than his purchase price; still has shot to slip in for a section of the purse.

Finley's Sunrise

Goes inside to outside and at least he split the field in the debut; 6 of sire's 8 wins were routes; dam was turf only; 2 of 4 siblings won; once carried speed long on dirt successfully once; would have liked to have seen some local activity; could be compromised by the slot.-Brian Mulligan

Race 7

Fight the Tide

Looks headed the right way; best result came last time on KEE Polytrack, yes (ran 2nd), but his best Beyer (74) did come on dirt at IND the race prior, which was also his first start in 8 months; back to dirt and he's been working over this track all along and does have route experience, though it wasn't all that pretty; lone sib is Pakula (2 wins, both dirt sprints, $42K).

Eight to the Bar

Debut wasn't pretty at all (last of 11 at 101-1) but hey, it was just his debut so you can be a bit forgiving; still, the odds also tell you nothing was expected; race also came for a tag so he's up in class today facing straight maidens; at least bred for this as daddy and damsire were G1 SWs routing on dirt; but there's still not much evidence of talent here, is there?

Royal Warrior

Kept to his task to be 4th routing here Sept. 6, though let's face it - he wasn't really a factor at any point (beaten 7 1/4 lengths); 'winner' of that race (Air Squadron), who was DQ'd, is in against him again today; lack of speed has been an issue as in 4 of his 5 starts he's left himself with quite a bit to do; 7 of 9 sibs to race are winners including Quasicobra (4 wins, $197K, G2/G3 SP, both routing) and Seriously (3 wins, $117K, SP).

Dyker Beach

Been knocking on the door for a while; only try here came a year ago and wasn't very pretty at all but then came a layoff and he's been much-improved since; 2 nice works since his last including a big bullet 4f move at SAR Oct. 21 (:48.60, fastest of 33 that day); 3 of 5 sibs are winners including Feahterbed (4 wins, $227K, SW, G1 SP) and Little Cliff (3 wins, all routing, $202K, G3 SP rouiting).

Thunder

Showed talent when 2nd on turf at KD in Sept. 12; trouble is, then came a dull run at KEE just over a year ago and he hasn't been seen since; at least returns with no drop, plenty of steady works and blinkers added but not only must he deal with a long layoff but it's first time dirt and he's being asked to go 9fs off this long layoff, no easy feat; 1 of 3 sibs is Reina Tangonita (1 win, $23K).

Tappan Street

Good news is after 2 ugly races at ELP he got a fresheing ande came back with an improved effort to be 3rd at IND; that being said, it's not as if he was a player at any point in that IND race Oct. 7 as he was beaten 10 lengths; did have a troubled start; nice at least that Howard isn't giving uyp on him - there's no panicky drop in for a tag - and this guy has been working along here the entire time; 7 of 8 sibs to race are winners including Saint Anddan (5 wins, $424K, G2 SW here, G3 SP).

Empire Taker

Had lots of chances to be sure (13) but before getting too down on him for that note some improved form this year; cost a pretty penny ($750K) so you know there were some expectations here and while things haven't panned out they're not giving up on him and dropping him in for a tag for his first start in over 5 months; has handled this game before at least; 2 of 4 sibs are winners including Cash Included (2 wins, $316K, won G1 Oak Leaf, 3rd in G1 SA Oaks, G2 Fantasy).

Moon Back More

Seemed on the verge of busting through at OP last winter with 2 fine 2nds in spots similar to this; alas, he was then favored there March 2 but after making a midrace move gave way to run 6th; hasn't been seen since so maybe something went awry that day; at least nice to see there's no drop for this return and he's been working along nicely here for this for McPeek who can fire off this kind of layoff (15%).

Air Squadron

He's the only 1 in here who knows what it feels like to finish 1st as he 'won' here Sept. 6; trouble is, he's also the only 1 in here who also knows what it feels like to be DQ'd from a win as he was that day; came back to be 4th vs. N1X foes here Sept. 28; back in vs. maidens and all he need do is repeat those last 2 efforts (without the drifting-out part) to get his overdue diploma, though he is stuck way outside; all 5 sibs to race are winners including Smooth Air (6 wins, $1.1 million, multiple G2 SW, multiple G1 SP) and Super Phoebe (9 wins, $57K).-Michael Hammersly

Race 8

City Connect

He's done some nice work since being placed over turf five starts ago, but he has been beaten by a couple of today's rivals in his two most recent races, and when seeing that he's unproven at today's 1 1/2m distance, it's tough to ignore his sprint leaning pedigree.

Wings of Fortune

It's a little odd to see that he's recorded five runner-up finishes from five turf starts, but he's clearly a contender in this contest and like to see what he did in his most recent start at this distance; Napravnik has won with 52 of 182 (29%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Happy Fella

He's been in pretty good form lately and this Valando-homebred didn't seem to mind it when he was stretched out to today's 1 1/2m distance in his latest outing; leaning toward others for the top spot, but not going to be surprised if he lands a solid share of the prize.

Prado Cat

In a race that seems likely to have a slow early pace, this colt owns the ability to take up a forward position soon after the start; however, he has been beaten by a few of these in his two most recent races, and he's obviously going to need to perform better if he's to turn the tables on those rivals in this one.

Knights Nation

He's been a pretty consistent performer and have to respect the way that he performed in his latest outing when finishing right behind one of today's key rivals in Wings of Fortune, and that was at today's distance; his early speed can help give him a tactical edge in what projects to be a paceless race.

I'm Star Struck

His two most recent races have been improved performances, but this will be his first start beyond 1 1/16m, and this has every right to prove to be a tough step up in class after a being beaten by 12.5k N2L claimers at KD in his latest start.

Newfound Zapper

Stakes placed gelding was beaten by a few of today's rivals in his latest start, but when seeing that his one career win was earned over this turf course, perhaps the change of venue can prove to be a key; Davis has won with 17 of 57 (30%) mounts for this barn in 2013.

Soul Winner's Fire

Late running colt ran well the first two times he raced over turf and his connections will see if the addition of blinkers can help him as he bids to get the better of a couple of rivals that outfinished him in his latest start; not willing to count him out of it.

Eriugena (IRE)

Ramsey-owned gelding ran well off of a claim two races ago, but that was a pretty weak bunch of 35k claimers, and this runner is going to need to show more than he did in his latest outing at today's distance; connections alone help give him some appeal, but prefer to look toward others.

I'll Call

Nicely-bred gelding is a 1/2 to multiple stakes winner Deal Making (4-17, 198k over turf) and a full to multiple graded stakes winner Smart Bid (6-26, $1 million, including 4 of 16 turf starts for 826k); his pedigree suggests that he can handle the added distance and this really does look like an ideal spot for him to go after his second career win.

Ridge City

He needs to see a scratch from the main body of this race in order to draw in and he's going to need to show up with a career best effort in start number 58 if he's to have a say in the outcome; he has the look of an outsider.-Brian Pochman

Race 9

Remember Then

She makes several notable moves as she returns to the overnight ranks from the graded stakes level, cuts back from nine furlongs to seven, and returns to racing on dirt; is a main track winner as well as a winner at this seven-furlong trip; dam was a multiple Grade 2 winner of $865K who has produced stakes winner Senada ($215K), a full sibling to this one, and Arthur's Tale, a Grade 1-placed winner of $407K; looks like a leading contender.

Culotte

She was a multiple stakes winner at 2; appears to be working her way back into the winner's circle, as she's moved forward with each of her recent starts; also could be sitting on a peak effort in her third out since February; adding to her appeal is the fact that she's a winner at CD; one who can share.

Amie's Dini

She exits a key race; the runner-up came back in her next start to account for an $80K optional claimer at Kee with a Beyer Figure of 77, and the 11th-place finisher, La Song, an allowance at Kee, with a Beyer of 88; this one is a stakes winner who is multiple Grade 2-placed; is also a half-sister to six-time stakes winner Kid Kate ($478K); could be closer to the pace here in her second straight sprint start, and upon the return to dirt; leading contender.

Lady Diva Ga Ga

She exits the same key race as Amie's Dini, with the runner-up returning in her next start to take an $80K optional claimer at Kee with a Beyer Figure of 77, and the 11th-place finisher, La Song, an allowance at Kee with a Beyer of 88; a stakes-placed runner, she was a credible fourth in her comeback race last out and has full reason to move forward in her second start since April; choice.

Sticks Wondergirl

She will be giving up receny to all of these as she has not seen action since September 2012, when she won the $250K Remington Park Oaks; shows some sharp works for her return and barn excels with comebackers; would seem to be one to preview in the paddock.

Ms. Rhetta

She's a five-time winner facing some less-experienced rivals and that makes her appealing; she's also returning to the overnight ranks after facing stakes foes in her most recent out; has registered all of her wins on synthetic surfaces, but like that one of her best recent Beyer Figures came on dirt, at Prx; can at least share.

Kaminari

Stakes winner will be giving up recency to most of these as she has not raced since May; the race she comes out of ended up becoming a key one, with the runner-up returning in her next start to take an $80K optional claimer at CD with a Beyer Figure of 91, and the sixth-place finisher, Noble Charlotte, an allowance at PID, with a Beyer of 87; comebacker one to preview in the paddock.-Mary Rampellini